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Valanciunas Impresses In Rout Of Americans
Posted on June 28, 2011 | 7 Comments
Just a quick post. I just finished watching a stream of the Lithuanian U19 team beating the US, 108 to 75. No, that’s not a misprint. It was a complete rout, although to be fair, the Lithuanians have probably played together far, far more than the Americans, and the Americans did not appear to have their best players. Projected top 10 picks, Quincy Miller, James McAdoo and Anthony Davis did not play, but Patrick Young, a physically imposing center who is projected at 8 in next year’s draft, by Draft Express, did play.
Jonas Valanciunas, the Raptors “controversial” 5th pick, also played and completely dominated the game. In just 25 minutes, he had 23 points, on 6 for 11 shooting from the field and 11 of 15 from the line (more on that in a moment), 11 rebounds and a block. And while they didn’t have it in the stats, I’m guessing the most positive +/- rating of anyone on the floor. The only time the Americans looked good was when he wasn’t on the floor, and when he came back out the US team looked lost again. There was no one that could handle Valanciunas and he was absolutely relentless. On offense, he showed a soft touch and decent footwork for a guy who’s supposed to be as raw as he is. The Lithuanians actually went to him on offense more than I was expecting, and although he’s no Olajuwon, he made a decent showing when posting up. He’s still got a lot of work to do, but the potential is definitely there.
He did have three turnovers and at least two of them came on post ups where defenders swarmed him and he simply coughed up the ball. It’s not all that surprising, though, considering his lack of experience scoring in the post.
On missed shots, whether his or a teammate’s, he constantly crashed the boards and wasn’t afraid of physical play. If he didn’t actually grab the rebound, he tried. He may get pushed around, at first, in the NBA, but he’s going to compete on the boards and work his ass off.
The fact that he took 15 free throws is an indication of just how active he was and how much he dominated the American front line. No one seemed to be able to keep him off the boards and the it seemed to frustrate the American team, which lead to a lot of the fouls.
On defense, while he didn’t block a lot of shots, he was extremely active and looked better than he has in some highlights. His length seemed to bother the Americans, although he also got scored on more than he should have, considering his size. One thing I noticed is that he tends to wait for the offensive player to come to him rather than go out and challenge him. It’s a habit he’s going to have to break. Thankfully, he’s young and it’s not something that should be too difficult to change, especially with his mentality.
Before the Raptors drafted Valanciunas, I had two concerns about him, mostly from watching just one full game of him. The first is his hands. In the first game I saw, he didn’t seem to have great hands and dropped a few too many balls for my liking. In this game, there was none of that. In fact, quite the opposite. There were a few difficult passes he caught without any trouble, and seemed to be able to grab most rebounds that he touched.
The other issue I had was his fouling. On his Euroleague team, he was fouling at a rate of one for every five minutes. At that rate, he’d be lucky to average 20 mpg, in the NBA, and in fact doesn’t even average that on his Euroleague team. Against the Americans, though, there didn’t seem to be much evidence of a guy who has trouble not hacking, and finished with 3 fouls in 25 minutes. Not great, but not bad, either. It’s obviously something he’ll need to work on, but he’s not going to be Rafael Araujo, it seems.
So it was a reassuring game that hopefully dispelled any of this nonsensical talk that Valanciunas is another soft European and Andrea Bargnani 2.0.
Edit: Yes, I’m aware I originally spelled “rout” incorrectly as “route”. In my defense, I caught it before anyone mentioned it.
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Jonas Valanciunas Is Like Two Cookies (and Amir)
Posted on June 25, 2011 | 24 Comments
A friend recently told me about a show she was watching where scientists conducted an experiment with young children. They put them in a room and on a table was a cookie. The kids were told that if they didn’t eat the cookie, then after half an hour, they would get two cookies.
Despite knowing that they would get two cookies if only they wait a bit, the vast majority of the kids ate the cookie sitting on the table. Why? Because most young kids live completely in the present and can’t comprehend a future that is not directly in front of them.
So what does this have to do with the Raptor’s draft pick, Jonas Valanciunas?
Well, I have to say I was shocked to hear about all the negative reaction involving the Raptors pick. While I was disappointed that Kanter failed to fall to 5, I was thrilled when David Stern called out Valanciunas’ name. Thrilled and relieved. Part of me, like last year, was afraid Colangelo would turn his nose up at the gift sitting in front of him and stay with his plan. Maybe I’m still stinging from when the Raptors had Andre Iguodala fall into their laps only to politely hand him to the 76ers and instead opt for Rafael Araujo.
So how the hell does this have to do with kids and cookies? I’m getting to that.
As I said, I was a little taken aback by the reaction of the fans. Overwhelmingly negative, or so it seemed. The comments ranged from disappointment that Colangelo didn’t take an NCAA star like Kemba Walker or Brandon Knight, to puzzlement that they didn’t draft someone who would help immediately, to blatant and extremely ignorant xenophobia.
The strangest comments revolved around the fact that the Raptors desperately needed a point guard and didn’t draft one. Sorry? While most people don’t see Jose Calderon or Jerryd Bayless as the point guard of the future for the Raptors, I fail to see how they need to be desperately replaced. Calderon is a far better point guard than many give him credit for, and has been good enough to help the team be one of the best scoring teams over the last 5 years. And Bayless certainly showed he deserves a chance to build on the success he showed at the end of this past season.
To me, center is probably the position most in need of upgrading. While I don’t buy the line that Andrea Bargnani has been playing out of position and is really a 4, no one can argue the Raptors don’t need a new center that isn’t going to hand opposing players rebounds and show the way to the hoop. It’s pretty obvious to me that the center position was the greatest need for the Raptors.
But that’s not why drafting Valanciunas was a good idea.
There were many that felt that Kemba Walker and Brandon Knight were simply better players, having had success in the NCAA. Of course, that is a view not held by the majority of scouts and paid NBA people who probably know a little more than the average Raptor fan. A lot of these fans were the same ones that booed when Ed O’Bannon wasn’t drafted by the Raptors. Unfortunately a lot of North American basketball fans don’t have a very wide perspective. Most Raptor fans only watch Raptor games or the NCAA Tournament, so really have little idea what goes on in most of the basketball world. How many of them would have booed if the Raptors had drafted Robert “Tractor” Traylor and then traded him for that German guy no one had ever heard of? Or if they’d taken Pau Gasol ahead of Shane Battier or even Eddy Curry?
Just because you LIKE a player better, doesn’t actually make him a better player. Both Walker and Knight have their issues that caused them to drop. No one knows if Walker can even play PG, which would be a problem, especially considering that he’s VERY similar to Jerryd Bayless when he came out. Compare the two and see.
And Walker, while a very successful college player, has neither the length nor shot to suggest he can be anywhere near the player he was in college. And I can’t get Damon Stoudamire out of my head. A very good college player who put up good stats as the best player on a bad team, but couldn’t find a role on a better team when he wasn’t allowed to dominate the ball like he was used to.
But the fact that Walker and Knight were questions themselves, questions that lead to them both dropping on draft night, is not what made drafting Valanciunas at 5 a good idea.
A common complaint about drafting Valanciunas is that he won’t help the team immediately. In fact, CBSSports gave the Raptors an F for that very reason (Of course, many of the grades the guy gave are incredibly perplexing. For instance he apparently thought Utah should have drafted Jimmer Fredette instead of Enes Kanter. Wow, just wow.). This would make sense if the Raptors weren’t in the position they are right now. The team won 22 games and, barring an unexpected free agent bounty, don’t have much of a chance to make the playoffs next year. Plus, there wasn’t a player available that would have changed that. Are people really getting worked up about the fact that the team might win 30 games instead of 35? Really?
How many rookies make much of a positive impact in their first year, anyway? John Wall didn’t, and he was the consensus #1 pick last year. You think Brandon Knight or Kemba Walker would have turned the Raptors into a playoff team next year?
Probably the most ignorant complaints I’ve heard about the Raptors drafting Valanciunas is that he’s European, like Bargnani, so he must be soft. My question: Have you watched the guy play before making that rather massive assumption? Obviously not, because he’s basically the complete opposite of Bargnani. Valanciunas is all defense and rebounding, at this point, with a strong motor and gets all his points around the rim. That doesn’t sound at all like Bargnani, does it?
I actually heard a lot of strange comparisons, like Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Pau Gasol and Chris Kaman. Peculiar, since none of those guys were known for their defense when they were drafted and had pretty advanced offensive skills. In fact, other than them being European and white, I fail to see the similarities.
The guy that Valanciunas actually reminds me of the most is Amir Johnson, and I’m actually surprised I haven’t heard this before.
While Valanciunas obviously has a lot more length than Amir, the two have strikingly similar games, at this point. Both are high energy, hustle players who rebound and defend well. Both are good, although not great, shotblockers. Both are better team defenders than man-to-man defenders, at this point, due to their slight builds. Both have (apparently) exceptionally good hands and are excellent pick and roll players. Both have a great touch around the basket, despite not being great offensive players, which results in a very high field goal percentage. Even their free throw percentages are similar, very good for big men.
Unfortunately, they even share the same penchant for fouling.
Now, before you start complaining that the Raptors drafted a taller version of a bench player, remember two things. The first is those few inches that Valanciunas is taller can’t be overstated. It’s the difference between Ed Davis and Dikembe Mutombo. It’s the difference between Karl Malone and Shaquille O’Neal.
If Amir Johnson were 3 inches taller, he’d probably be considered potentially a top 10 center, in the league. And probably be paid a lot more.
Secondly, and more importantly, Valanciunas is only 19 years old and about at the same stage that Amir was a year ago, at 23. I think that Amir comparison is starting to look better.
So am I ever going to get back to the cookies?
The problem is that a lot of Raptor fans seem to have a lot in common with the kids who took the cookie off the table. They don’t want to wait and can’t comprehend a future that isn’t directly in front of them. When Boston drafted Larry Bird (at 6th), they were coming off a 29 win season. And they did it knowing they would have to wait a year before he could play on the team. If they had decided to draft a player that would have helped immediately, then Reggie Theus might have been a good choice. He certainly had a decent career. Sure, Boston wouldn’t have had the decade they did, but at least they wouldn’t have had to wait that year.
San Antonio, after winning 28 games in 1987, won the lottery and had to choose between Armen Gilliam, an All American coming off a 23 and 9 season with UNLV, or David Robinson, who they’d have to wait two years for while he served his time in the Navy. Gilliam made the All-Rookie team and Phoenix, who drafted him, eventually went on to the Conference Finals twice, albeit only once with Gilliam, who was traded after two and a half years to New Jersey. Still, that’s not bad.
Now, obviously Valanciunas isn’t a Larry Bird or David Robinson, but the fact is that you need to look at the big picture when drafting a player. And most fans don’t do that. According to most people who make a living having to know this stuff, Valanciunas was the best player available, and selecting someone else, who is more well known and would have helped immediately, would have been more popular with the fans, it would have also short changed them.
So if you want your cookie right now, then Knight or Walker, or even Biyombo would have made more sense. But if you want two cookies, then Valanciunas, who just about everyone with knowledge of the situation says was the best player available, was the way to go.
Unless of course, you’re happy with this.
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2011 NBA Draft Report Card!
Posted on June 24, 2011 | 4 Comments
TORONTO: Exceeds Expectations
5. Jonas Valanciunas
It’s deja vu all over again. Last year, a team above them unexpectedly took an athletic defensive power forward which resulted in a higher ranked big man unexpectedly falling to the Raptors. Colangelo and the Raptors brass probably can’t believe their luck. I was afraid they might still take Knight, but Colangelo showed he is indeed focused on the future, rather than the present.
Valanciunas will fill the void at center the Raptors have been lacking for, well, ever. While apparently a lot of Raptor fans are unhappy with the pick, I think they’ll eventually regret that as Valanciunas is the type of player that Raptor fans love. He’s a high energy player who hustles, defends and rebounds. English, though, is not his strong suit.
On the other hand, the pick they got from the Heat, which they traded to the Bulls for James Johnson, could have been used to pick Corey Joseph at 28, who went one spot later to the Spurs. Who knows if that’s who Colangelo would have picked, as he was projected to go in the second round, but I’ll certainly be comparing their careers. And since the Spurs are pretty much never wrong…
I would have liked to see them try and scoop up another pick, but it’s not a big deal that they didn’t.
SAN ANTONIO: Exceeds Expectations
29. Cory Joseph
Traded George Hill for Indiana’s 15th pick, Kawhi Leonard.
I assumed the Spurs would exceed expectations, and again they have. Trading for Leonard is huge, especially since he was projected to go in the top ten and dropped. He’s the type of defender than the Spurs love, is in the perfect situation, and should step in Bruce Bowen’s shoes, that have been empty for a few years.
If on of my sleepers, Toronto’s Cory Joseph couldn’t get drafted by the Raptors, then the Spurs would have been my second choice. And it’s incredible timing because they might have their replacement for Hill. Yes, he projected to go in the second round, but I think he has first round talent and so, apparently, do the Spurs.haunt them. Burks should be a decent player, but guys like him are a dime a dozen.
CHARLOTTE: Exceeds Expectations
7. Bismack Biyombo
9. Kemba Walker
Traded Stephen Jackson for Sacramento’s 7th pick and Corey Maggette.
Sold 39th pick, Jeremy Tyler to Golden State, I’m guessing for cash.
It hurts to say it, but Charlotte actually did well. I was surprised that they passed on Knight for Biyombo, as they’ve been looking for a real starting PG for, well, their entire existence, but they resisted temptation and went with a guy who I think will be better down the road. I also look forward to watching Biyombo and Tyrus Thomas being on the floor at the same time. The front row needs to watch out.
Maggette was a disaster in Milwaukee and now brings his brand of scoring and no defense to Charlotte. He’s probably going to lose games for them, but that’s kind of what they wanted, so maybe it’s a good thing?
Walker fell, but not as far as I thought he might. I think it’s still a pretty good pick at 9, but Charlotte seems to like picking decent PGs with little upside.
CHICAGO: Exceeds Expectations
23. Nikola Mirotic
30. Jimmy Butler
Traded 28th and 43rd picks for Houstons 23rd pick, Nikola Mirotic.
Butler was very efficient offensively at Butler, and is a very good defender, so the Bulls may have a sleeper on their hands.
How much do you think the Spurs are pissed at not getting Mirotic, who is exactly the type of player they usually scoop up at the end up the first round? He’s a huge steal, but will play overseas for a couple of more seasons. That’s fine with the Bulls.
DENVER: Exceeds Expectations
22. Kenneth Faried
26. Jordan Hamilton
56. Chukwudiebere Maduabum
Traded Raymond Felton for Portland’s 26th pick, Jordan Hamilton, and Andre Miller.
Traded for Laker’s 56th pick, Chukwudiebere Maduabum, somehow.
Although I haven’t confirmed that Denver is, in fact, keeping Faried, if they do this was a very good draft day. I would have liked to have seen them get more for Felton, but Miller is a good, veteran PG that will probably be shipped elsewhere soon. Plus they were able to pick up another pick and a SF who has a chance to be a decent pro.
Faried is the type of player that everyone loves and helps you win. So why didn’t he go higher? Probably because he’s not a scorer and a little undersized.
I have no idea who Chukwudiebere Maduabum, but on his Draft Express profile, he’s listed as Chu Chu. I think he’s worthy of picking just for that. He immediately is in the running for best All-Tim NBA name.
MEMPHIS: Exceeds Expectations
49. Josh Selby
Selby was considered a first round talent, so this has to be considered a steal. Where they’ll find room for him, is another thing.
DETROIT: Exceeds Expectations
8. Brandon Knight
33. Kyle Singler
52. Vernon Macklin
Although I question whether he can play PG, Knight was projected to go in the top 5 and dropped to 8th, so Pistons fans have to be happy. Of course, he kind of presents the same problems that Rodney Stuckey, who’s also a combo guard they tried to turn into a point guard, did.
Singler is never going to be a star, but last year he was considered a middle first round pick and they got him in the second round. I think he’ll hang on and have a decent career as a bench player.
DALLAS: Exceeds Expectations
Traded their 26th pick to Portland for Rudy Fernandez
The rich get richer. Dallas has no use for a rookie and no one picked there was going to help them like Fernandez. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up starting next year.
LAKERS: Exceeds Expectations
41. Darius Morris
46. Andrew Goodelock
58. Ater Majok
Without a first round pick, they were able to pick up a decent prospect, in Darius Morris. This might be the second year in a row they get at least one keeper from the second round.
PHILADELPHIA: Exceeds Expectations
16. Nikola Vucevic
50. Lavoy Allen
Vucevic should end up being a pretty good pro and probable starter. At 16, in this draft, that’s pretty damn good.
CLEVELAND: Meets Expectations
1. Kyrie Irving
4. Tristan Thompson
32. Justin Harper
Irving will probably be the best player, so it was no surprise he was the first pick.
Thompson was the first big surprise of the night. And while I don’t think it’s a bad pick, since I think Thompson is going to be a very good pro, but he was a big reach at 3. Valanciunas would have made much more sense, but apparently Cleveland wants to make an impact immediately. Something they might regret down the line.
I think Cleveland should have offered Minnesota everything but it’s first pick to move up to 2 and draft Williams. If they had come out of the draft with Irving AND Williams, their future would have looked A LOT brighter.
Justin Harper is a stretch 4 that isn’t very big and probably won’t be much of a rebounder in the NBA. If he sticks, it’s because of his shooting. On Cleveland, that’s devoid of talent, he might, but with Antawn Jamison and J.J. Hickson as well as Anderson Varejao, who will probably be traded this summer, it’s puzzling why they’d take another power forward.
NEW YORK: Meets Expectations
45. Josh Harrellson
New York gets the guy Enes Kanter apparently made into the player he is today. So says Harrellson.
MINNESOTA: Meets Expectations
2. Derrick Williams
Traded Jonny Flynn for Houston’s 23rd pick, Nikola Mirotic, and Brad Miller.
For some reason the T-Wolves don’t end up with the 23d pick, so it’s basically a Flynn for Miller deal. Not sure why they’d do that.
Keeping Williams is the right move even though he doubles up on Beasley’s skills. He should be better than Bealsey and should give the Wolves some star power.
UTAH: Meets Expectations
3. Enes Kanter
12. Alec Burks
Although a lot of people had Brandon Knight going to Utah for the months leading up to the draft, they apparently changed their mind with less than a week to go. And while I was a little missed he didn’t fall to the Raptors, I think Utah will be VERY happy they chose Kanter instead of Knight.
Of course, while I think they made the right decision at 3, passing up Leonard, who is probably exactly what the Jazz need, is probably going to
OKLAHOMA CITY: Meets Expectations
27. Reggie Jackson
Jackson is a combo guard who joins an already crowded Thunder backcourt. I really don’t know where he’ll find minutes. I wonder why Oklahoma didn’t simply trade out of the draft.
PORTLAND: Meets Expectations
21. Nolan Smith
51. Jon Diebler
Traded Andre Miller for Raymond Felton
Traded Rudy Fernandez to Dallas for 26th pick, which they gave to Denver in prearranged deal.
Getting Felton for Miller is a great deal for Portland. He might be the young point guard they’ve been looking for all these years.
Unfortunately, picking Nolan Smith over Faried, who they could really use, was a mistake.
ORLANDO: Meets Expectations
53. DeAndre Liggins
He’s a player that was on Kentucky, but now he’s not.
ATLANTA: Meets Expectations
48. Keith Benson
He’s got legit size for an NBA power forward, and he’s stronger than he looks. For the 48th pick, the Hawks did well.
For a team hitting their ceiling, I would have liked to have seen them a little more active. Maybe after the new CBA is signed, whenever that happens.
MIAMI: Approaching Expectations
28. Norris Cole
Somehow got the 28th pick from Chicago to draft Cole, a PG, who should provide insurance in case Bibby is not re-upped.
BOSTON: Approaching Expectations
27. JuJuan Johnson
55. E’Twaun Moore
Traded their 25th pick for the 27th pick.
Johnson is a decent player, but I don’t see him making any impact on the Celtics, either now or down the line. But would anyone else have?
Moore is an undersized shooting guard, but I’m guessing what attracted Boston was the ability to tell people they drafted JuJuan and E’Twaun. And both are American.
MILWAUKEE: Approaching Expectations
19. Tobias Harris
40. John Leuer
Traded Corey Maggette and 10th pick for Stephen Jackson and Charlotte’s 19th pick, Tobias Harris.
Getting rid of Maggette, who was a disaster, is good, but is Jackson really what they need? And how much longer does he have? Harris is a good pick, though, who’s been compared to Shane Battier.
PHOENIX: Approaching Expectations
13. Markieff Morris
Morris might make a pretty good role player on a good team. Phoenix, however, needs home runs, not singles. They have a lot of role players and the engine that makes them go, Nash, is nearing the end of his career.
GOLDEN STATE: Approaching Expectations
11. Klay Thompson
37. Jeremy Tyler
44. Charles Jenkins
So they STILL have Monta Ellis, yet decide to draft yet another shooter, while Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Vucevic were still available. Thompson might be the best player available, for all I know, though, and if Jerry West thinks so, it’s probably true.
I don’t know about Tyler, though, who seems to have the physical tools, but needs maturity.
WASHINGTON: Approaching Expectations
6. Jan Vesely
18.Chris Singleton
34. Shelvin Mack
A lot of teams seemed high on Vesley, but I don’t understand the attraction to him. He’s 6’11 and athletic, but he’s not a great scorer, can’t shoot, isn’t a good ball handler, will probably struggle defensively at the 3 and is a poor rebounder for his size. He’s apparently got a good motor, though, and he’s got a very hot girlfriend, so those are both pluses.
Singleton was on my don’t draft list and I really don’t see how he’s going to play with Vesley. Neither can shoot, but Singleton has even fewer skills than Vesley.
NEW JERSEY: Approaching Expectations
25. Marshon Brooks
36. Jordan Williams
Traded their 27th pick, JaJuan Johnson for Boston’s 25th pick, Marshon Brooks
When I first saw a trade between Boston and New Jersey involving Brooks, I thought it was a blockbuster. No, it was not Brooks Lopez, but Marshon Brooks, who bring his great shooting and horrible defense to a bad defensive team.
CLIPPERS: Needs Improvement
37. Trey Thompkins
47. Travis Leslie
The Clippers traded away a unprotected lottery pick that ended up being Kyrie Irving, who’s probably just what the Clippers could have used to solidify them as one of the teams of the future. What they ended up drafting were two solid NCAA players with probably very little chance of sticking in the NBA.
SACRAMENTO: Needs Improvement
10. Jimmer Fredette
35. Tyler Honeycutt
Traded their 7th pick for Milwaukee’s 10th pick, Jimmer Fredette, and John Salmons
So, the Kings trade John Salmons away, only to trade back for him a couple of years later. And move down in the draft in order to do it. Fredette might be a great shooter, but I don’t see how he helps Sacramento. He’s not going to be a good defender and will do nothing for the chemistry. Keeping the pick and taking Knight or Walker would have been preferable.
HOUSTON: Needs Improvement
14. Marcus Morris
38. Chandler Parsons
Traded Brad Miller, the 23rd pick and a future first rounder for Minnesota’s 20th pick, Donatas Motiejunas, and Jonny Flynn.
Houston’s GM, Daryl Morey, intrigues me. He’s apparently a big advanced stats guy and was initially a guy a lot of Raptor fans wanted to replace Colangelo, but he makes the most head scratching trades. Motiejunas was another on my do not draft list. He doesn’t defend or rebound, but should be able to score a lot, which makes him basically a bigger version of Kevin Martin
Morris is, yet another young, decent power forward to join Houston’s stable of other decent, power forwards. Apparently you can never get enough of them.
Parsons is a typical Rocket small forward. he does a whole lot of things, but none of them really well.
INDIANA: Needs Improvement
Traded their 15th pick, Kawhi Leonard, to the Spurs for George Hill
Don’t the Pacers already have enough PGs who aren’t really PGs? George Hill looked good in the Spurs system, but you need to watch out for those guys, because there’s a good chance he won’t look nearly as good out of it. And while the Pacers already have enough SFs, don’t they know not to trade a draft pick to the Spurs?
NEW ORLEANS: Incomplete
Traded completely out of the draft by trading the 45th pick, Josh Harrellson, to the Knicks for cash.
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Don’t Mock Me! (Plus rumours, predictions & a final wish list)
Posted on June 23, 2011 | 6 Comments
It’s just hours away to the 2011 NBA Draft and this is when rumours and predictions start to get out of control. Anyone who’s working today who loves the draft as much as I do, won’t be getting much done today, I’m guessing.
So let me give a final rundown of everything that’s been happening today…
FINAL MOCKS
I looked at 8 of the more respected “mockers” to see what kinds of trends I was seeing, and try and figure out what it all means.
The “mockers” I looked at were ESPN’s Chad Ford, Draft Express’s Jonathan Givony, NBADraft.net’s Aran Smith, NBA.com’s David Aldridge and Scott Howard Cooper, CNN/SI’s Sam Amick, NBA Draft Insider’s Kristofer Habbas and RealGM’s Chris Riena. Presumably, these guys are plugged in enough that they’re basing their selections on what they hear as much as where think just think player’s might go.
So it seems that, despite rumours to the contrary, the top two selections will be Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams. That makes sense since, however much I like Enes Kanter, he’s too much of a question mark to take ahead of Williams.
And 6 of the 8 say Kanter’s going to Utah, who at one point were assumed to be taking Brandon Knight. I think Kanter working out against other big men helped his cause, whereas Knight refusing to work out against other point guards might have hurt his stock.
I find it amazing that despite Valanciunas not being able to play in the NBA next year, he’s still projected to be a top 5 pick. Does that say more about his talent or more about the weakness of this draft? Probably a mixture of both. The fact that the Spurs were rumoured to want to move up to get him probably has helped his stock more than anything. Hell, as soon as I heard that’s who the Spurs were targeting, any questions I had about him went out the window.
So there is little doubt that if Irving, Williams and Valanciunas are the top 4 picks, Knight is going to go 5th, and that seems to be consensus. The Raptors are apparently high on him and would be thrilled if he dropped.
That leaves Washington apparently selecting Jan Vesley, or so 7 of the 8 mock drafts say. After that, things get murky. Some think Kemba Walker is next, others think he drops out of the top ten.
So after all that, here are a few predictions of my own.
SURE-FIRE ALL STARS
None. I don’t think there’s a player in this draft you can say is definitely going to be an All Star.
POTENTIAL ALL STARS
Kyrie Irving
Derrick Williams
Enes Kanter
Jonas Valanciunas
I think these guys will end up being the four best players from this draft, which is probably not much of a prediction since they are predicted to go in the top 4. Valanciunas slips into this category solely on the back of the San Antonio Spurs apparently wanting him. If I’ve learned anything from previous drafts, it’s that the Spurs know what they are doing.
COULD GO EITHER WAY
Brandon Knight
Bismack Biyombo
Kawhi Leonard
Kemba Walker
Just about everyone has major question marks in this draft, but outside of the top 4, it’s these guys who I think have the best chance to become career starters. Or they could struggle to find their niche and end up as journeymen, if they’re lucky. This is when GMs earn their stripes and why I don’t envy the decision they have to make.
I can see Knight as an All-Star, but I also wonder whether he is any different from Jerryd Bayless, when he was drafted.
Biyombo could become Ben Wallace or Mouhamed Sene.
Leonard might be a game changing defender and rebounder at the SF position, or if he can’t find a shot, is he any better than Julian Wright?
Walker has the best pedigree of anyone and dominated in college, but I wonder if he’ll have more of a career like Brevin Knight or Damon Stoudamire.
SAFE PICKS
Tristan Thompson
Nikola Vucevic
Kenneth Faried
I don’t know if ANYONE is a safe pick in this draft, but I think a team selecting any one of these guys can’t go wrong. I can see each one having a long, productive career.
QUESTION MARKS
Just about everyone else.
AVOID AT ALL COSTS
Chris Singleton
Donatas Motiejunas
Jeremy Tyler
For very different reasons. I love defensive players, but Singleton is another one of those defending wings who can’t shoot that never seem to find a place in the NBA. Motiejunas’s ceiling is said to be Andrea Bargnani. Enough said? Tyler has the physical tools to be an All-Star center and the mental tools to become Patrick O’Bryant.
SLEEPERS
Nikola Mirotic
Isaiah Thomas
Cory Joseph
Mirotic won’t be coming over from Europe right away, but he’s a talented big man who likes to play inside. What do you want a bet the Spurs scoop him up? Thomas is very undersized but would probably be a lottery pick if he were 3 inches taller. Joseph, I think, suffered from not playing PG for Texas, but is one of the better defenders and shooters at that position.
PLAYER MOST LIKELY TEAMS WILL REGRET PASSING HIM UP IF HE DROPS
Jonas Valanciunas
He’s predicted to go in the top four, but if teams pass up on him because he won’t play in the NBA next year it will be a mistake. Especially considering that there might not even BE an NBA season next year.
PLAYER MOST LIKELY TO DROP LIKE JAMEER NELSON
Kemba Walker
PGs always seem to either rise (Jonny Flynn) or drop (Jrue Holiday) unexpectedly. It’s my bet Kemba will be it this year. He’s a junior (strike against) who doesn’t have great physical stats who a lot of people question whether he’ll be able to get his shot off like he could in college. However much I question whether he can find a role in the NBA, I think if he drops out of the 10 top, some NBA team is going to be very lucky.
RUMOURS
Far too many to list here, but here’s what I have grasped so far. About the ONLY picks not in play in the top ten is the #1 pick. Minnesota has been in various discussions to move down with just about everyone, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them end up keeping the pick. In fact it wouldn’t shock me to no top ten picks being traded. I think what happens is teams end up overvaluing their picks, especially when they’re getting so many offers for them.
FINAL WISH LIST FOR THE RAPTORS
What I’d like to see is them either move up to grab Kanter, or for Kanter to fall to fifth. Outside of that, I’d like to see them try and pick up another top 10 pick. I’d also LOVE to see a deal involving Bargnani.
What I most definitely do not want to see is for the Raptors to trade down. Teams that trade down almost always simply end up getting a worse player. Yes, they can pick up another asset, but it would most likely be a mediocre talent, something they have enough of and something that really isn’t hard to find.
So here’s my list of players, in order.
Enes Kanter
Jonas Valanciunas
Bismack Biyombo
Kawhi Leonard
Brandon Knight
Kemba Walker
Last year, I got my wish. Let’s hope history repeats itself.
Tomorrow morning, check back for my Draft Report Card.
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What The Hell Is With This Draft?
Posted on June 22, 2011 | 4 Comments
It’s only one more day to go, and I have to say I don’t have any more of a handle of what’s going on than I did three months ago. And while I can say, like I could three months ago, that Kyrie Irving is most likely going to be picked #1, I can’t say it with any certainty. There isn’t one pick that I can, with any certainty, predict. So, if nothing else, it makes this draft a lot more exciting.
That’s not to say there isn’t any consensus among those apparently in the know. The majority of the more respected “mockers” agree that Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams are going to go 1-2. After that, things get a bit murky. Most have Utah selecting Brandon Knight at 3 but a few have them selecting Enes Kanter. After that is when things get even more interesting.
Of course, this year’s draft doesn’t exactly have a plethora of great talent, so draft day may be exciting and interesting, but will it yield any stars? And what should teams and their fans really expect once all the dust settles?
Well, this is the draft, as I see it. And, as always, I see it mostly from a Raptor’s perspective.
WHO’S THE BEST?
The draft is always an interesting thing. Every year, players settle into their slots and teams rank players until no one can seem to see beyond that. In the 1998 draft, the top two prospects were widely considered to be Michael Olawokandi and Mike Bibby. The Clippers were basically choosing between those two players because they were the consensus two best prospects. Selecting someone else would have been a surprise and probably frowned upon. Of course, neither of those players ever became All-Stars, unlike Vince Carter, Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki who all became perennial All-Stars and, respectively, Rookie of the Year, Finals MVP and MVP and Finals MVP. So in retrospect, the Clippers probably should have forgotten where the players were slotted and grabbed one of those guys. Of course, hind-sight is 20-20.
So who is going to be the best from this draft? Currently, the NBA seems to be on a roll with #1 picks. The last 3, Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin and John Wall have actually lived up to their billing and become, arguably, the best player from their draft class. That’s good news for Kyrie Irving. But what about the 2nd pick?
Last year it was Evan Turner, who I actually felt was a can’t miss prospect. Now, it’s really too early to judge his career, but as of right now, he wasn’t even one of the five best rookies. It’s really hard to take too much out of a draft after only one year, so let’s look back a year earlier, when Griffin was drafted.
That was kind of an odd year, as I don’t know many who actually thought that Hasheem Thabeet was the second best player in the draft, and as it turns out, he might not even be the 22nd best player form that draft. The 2nd best player from 2009 is really yet to be determined, but it says something when DeMar DeRozan, who was drafted 9th, has a good case to make for it eventually.
And then there’s 2008. The year when Derrick Rose, the reigning MVP was drafted. The consensus 2nd pick was Michael Beasley, who was traded just two years later for a couple of 2nd round picks. If that’s not a quick fall from grace, I don’t know what is. The two guys currently fighting it out for 2nd best player in the 2008 draft, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love, were drafted 4th and 5th.
So what does this all mean? Well, it means that just because everyone thinks Irving and Williams are the consensus two best prospects doesn’t mean at all they’ll end up as the two best players. In fact it’s likely they won’t.
SO WHO, GODDAMNIT?!
I think Irving has the best chance. He showed in a short time at Duke he’s a special player. He’s got that type of game that just seems transcendent. He’s mature, has a high basketball IQ, is a leader, can shoot, pass defend and knows how to win. The one big knock against him is that he’s not an elite athlete, like a Derrick Rose. The mantra seems to be that Rose and Wall are the new breed of PG and the type you need to get. Of course, the two teams in the Finals certainly didn’t have this new breed. I think what you need more is a smart PG who can hold his own and make his teammates better. Irving fits that bill. He may not be the next Derrick Rose, but he might be the next Deron Williams, and that’s not too bad.
Derrick Williams also has a chance. I think he’s either going to be Kevin Durant or Michael Beasley without the offcourt issues. It all depends on whether he can actually defend the 3 position, which is the only position he’ll be able to play in the NBA. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he eventually becomes a 30 ppg scorer, which is probably why so many teams are trying to nab the 2nd pick from Minnesota.
My darkhorse for future best player is Enes Kanter. As some of you know, I’ve been talking up this guy for months, despite only having seen a couple of games. I’ve also seen quite a number of clips of him in various games, but there are a few things I really like about the guy. First of all, he’s 19 and built like an NBA veteran. And he knows how to use it. A lot of young, big guys don’t seem to understand how to use their size. That’s not the case with Kanter.
Another thing I like about Kanter is that he is far more polished than a guy who has as little experience as he has should be. And he appears to have a high basketball IQ, too. To me, that’s astounding. If he has learned so much with so little game time, imagine how much he’ll learn with more experience?
Lastly, I like that, after not playing competitively for an entire year, he shows up to the Chicago combine and is in one of the best shapes there. That’s dedication and an indication that this guy is going to take his basketball career seriously.
It also doesn’t hurt that he’s a better athlete than originally thought. Anyone who says he’s going to be Rafael Araujo knows absolutely nothing.
THE POINT GUARD QUESTION
Probably one of the biggest questions among Raptor fans, right now, is who is better, Kemba Walker or Brandon Knight. A better question, however, should be whether you should pick either of them.
Let’s be clear, here. I have only 3 players in this draft I feel are safe bets. Irving Williams and Kanter (yes, Kanter) I think are, at the very least, going to be legit starters on any team. There are no doubt going to be others, but I couldn’t begin to tell you who. That’s not to say there aren’t other players I like more than others, but I have serious questions about every other players.
Now, if the Raptors end up with either Walker or Knight, I won’t hate the pick like I did when Andrea Bargnani was drafted. With Bargnani, I pretty much knew what his ceiling would be, and it’s about where he is right now. A very good offensive player who is awful on the boards and on defense. There are aspects of both Knight and Walker I love.
Knight is, by all accounts, an incredibly smart person with a high basketball IQ and with a pro-like dedication to the game. In fact, he’s considered to have a maniacal work ethic, much like DeMar DeRozan. A very good sign. He’s also a great shooter and very good athlete with a probability of becoming a very good defender.
My problem is that he’s not really a PG. In fact, he brings many of the same skills that Jerryd Bayless did when he was drafted just a few years ago. If that doesn’t give you pause, nothing will. And the Chauncey Billups counter (he can learn the PG position) only works if you expect Knight to also to finally get it after 5 year and 5 NBA teams.
Walker is a winner who is a born leader and lead a very mediocre team to an NCAA Championship. You have to like that pedigree. The downside, of course, is that did it by dominating the ball and shooting most of the shots. He’s going to win doing that in the NCAA, but not in the NBA. And before this season, when he wasn’t dominating the ball and taking most of the shots, he wasn’t nearly the prospect he is now. So can he find a roll on an NBA team when he’s not the best player, or is he going to be a Damon Stoudamire, who out up great numbers when he was the best player on a bad team, but couldn’t find his niche on a more talented team?
As I said, there are things I like about Walker and Knight, and questions I have about them. One thing I do wonder, though, is whether one of these two guys is who the Spurs are apparently after. It wouldn’t surprise me to discover that it’s Knight, who would probably be the perfect replacement for Tony Parker and a great fit for the Spurs system.
IS THERE ANYONE ELSE YOU LIKE?
If Kanter is gone, then the Raptors will have a few people to choose from, including the two PGs. Three other players who I think they might choose from are Jonas Valanciunas, Kawhi Leonard and Bismack Biyombo. All three players have been in most top fives, at one time, but have dropped for various reasons. Valanciunas is considered by many to be the big man with the most potential, but it’s now known that he won’t be able to come into the NBA until 2012-2013. Normally, I can understand that being a deterrent, but there might not even BE a 2011-2012 season, so is him not showing up for a year really that big a problem?
My issues with Valanciunas stem not from his buyout situation, but with his penchant for fouling, which makes Amir look Wiltesque, in comparison, as well as his hands, which have, at times, appear rather stone-like, when catching passes.
Leonard, on the other hand, has freakishly large hands to go with a freakishly large wingspan, both of which help him on defense, where most believe he’ll make an impact right away. Whether he’s going to make Julian Wright look good on offense, is the question.
New coach, Dwayne Casey, and the Raptors brass, seem to recently be enamoured with Biyombo, who might end up being a powerhouse defensively. While 5 is a reach, at this point, for Biyombo, I wouldn’t be surprised if Colangelo picks up a 2nd lottery pick, as he mentioned he will try and do, to grab him.
In the end, if one the above players is picked by the Raptors, I’m open to them enough I will defer judgement for a while.
Tomorrow I’ll give my final analysis of the draft, much like I did last year.
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