The Only Indispensable Raptor (and other stories)

Posted on | February 1, 2010 | 12 Comments

[Update: I've added a poll for the blog, and the first one is at the bottom]

There’s a line of thought among some Raptor fans that Chris Bosh is not worth the maximum contract, and that the Raptors should let him go (either via trade or sign-and-trade) and build around Bargnani and the rest of the Raptors. To put it mildly, these people are morons who have no business watching an NBA game let alone sharing their opinions on one. Okay, maybe that’s not putting it mildly.

When Turkoglu got an elbow to the face, two thoughts came to mind. The first is that I really feel for Turkoglu because I know how it feels. I once got a shoulder hit just below my eye that felt like it completely collapsed my face. I’ve been hit (and hurt) many times and kept playing, but this was different and knew it. I first checked to see if all my teeth were intact (I’ve lost a tooth playing ball before), and then checked my nose to make sure it was still where it was supposed to be. Stupidly, I did go back in when I discovered my face still intact, despite the fact I was seeing double (slightly). The most shocking thing was when I finally looked in the mirror and saw that my face looked, for the most part, normal. I had expected a look similar to Rocky after fighting Apollo Creed the first time. There was a little swelling, but no bruising at all.

It turned out I had fractured my orbit bone and it was more than six months before I got most of the feeling back in my face and to this day, I don’t have all of it back (it’s been nearly two years). The worst part about having no feeling in part of your face is showering. Since you can’t actually feel the water on you, you can’t tell if you haven’t washed the soap off. It was very odd and not the least bit pleasant.

But I digress.

The second thing I thought about was how the Raptors won’t necessarily miss Turkoglu if he doesn’t come back in the game. The great thing about this Raptors team, as I’ve mentioned before, is the bench. Unlike last season, when an injury to any of the key players was devastating, this year there’s only one player who is irreplaceable. And that’s Chris Bosh. When Turkoglu went out, I knew that between Wright, Weems and Belinelli, the Raptors would be able to absorb his loss. Obviously those same players make DeRozan’s absence not even missed, and Jack and Calderon can both start, which makes an injury to one of them a non-issue, especially when Banks played so well during Calderon’s missed games, and Belinelli is a capable enough ball handler and passer that he can play the point in a pinch. Even Bargnani can be replaced by Nesterovic and Johnson. They don’t have Bargnani’s scoring touch, but are better rebounders and play well alongside Bosh.

Bosh, however, cannot be lost for long without the team going into a tailspin. You see, Bosh is the only consistent scorer and rebounder the Raptors have. Bargnani can have great scoring bursts and is the second leading scorer on the team, but he’s too inconsistent to be relied on as the team’s first option. He relies too much on people creating for him and doesn’t get to the line enough. And he’s the second best scorer. Nine times he has not scored more than 12 points in a game. Compare that with Bosh’s 2.  And one of those two, Bosh only played 15 minutes.

And it can’t be written off to Bosh taking more shots than Bargnani because Bosh only takes two more shots a game. Besides, a lot of times, good players make their own shots. Bosh gets two more shots than Bargnani because he gets himself the shot. Bargnani, for all his talent, doesn’t do that, which is why he goes through so many scoring droughts.

And, needless to say, Bargnani is not going to be able to cover Bosh’s rebounding. The only two player on the roster who can consistently rebound at a rate similar to Bosh (Evans and Johnson) are both foul prone and don’t bring the scoring the Raptors would need if they lost Bosh.

The Raptors can go small to score more, with Turkoglu shifting to PF, but they’d suffer on the boards. If they insert Johnson or Evans into the PF slot, they suffer in the scoring department.

Let’s hope Bosh re-signs, because if he leaves, the Raptors will be in trouble.

SOARING RAPTORS

In ESPN’s recent Power Rankings, the Raptors are ranked #7. Okay, Mark Stein is one of the few American sports writers who is actually unbiased when it comes to things north of the border, but it’s still a great indication of how far the Raptors have come since their slow start in November.

Can I point out something I probably shouldn’t? The Raptors are only 4 1/2 games behind a struggling Celtics team that has gone 6-11 since winning against Orlando on Christmas day.  And speaking of the Celtics, I’ve been suspicious of Garnet’s knee injury from day one. I didn’t like how little the Celtics said, even as the Celtics went into the second round. I didn’t like that little was revealed over the summer about exactly what was wrong with his knee, and I didn’t like how he looked at the start of the season. Sure, he’s had a few big games, but when a player limps, it’s a bad, bad thing. It means two things. One is that he’s not fully healed, and the other is that he’ll probably have problems due to favouring the other leg. Well, it’s already past the halfway point and he’s still having problems with the knee. I think they may be in trouble.

DIVISIONAL RACES

While the race in the east is for the 2nd spot among the contenders (as long as Cleveland doesn’t falter without Mo Williams), and the 5th spot among the pretenders (of which the Raptors are included), in the West, the big race is to see who’s going to make it to the big dance. Currently, there are 6 teams within 2 games of one another, and only 3 of them are going to make the playoffs. Right now, Oklahoma City, Memphis, and Houston are on the outside looking in, but no one would be surprised if all three make the playoffs. Portland is in danger of not making the playoffs, and New Orleans will certainly drop without Chris Paul for a month or two (due to knee surgery).  I’m going to guess that at least a couple of those six teams are going to try and make a deal to better their chance.

TRADES

What on earth is this nonsense about Philly thinking of trading Igoudala. Is he really the problem on this team? And trading him for McGrady? What good would that do? Think they regret letting Andre Miller go? Okay, maybe they don’t, but they should. Personally, Igoudala should be one of the last players they should trade.

If they are intent on trading Igoudala, something crossed my mind. Now as regular readers know, I’m not for trading Calderon, but if Philadelphia offered Igoudala for Calderon, DeRozan and Wright, I’d think long and hard. DeRozan has a lot of potential, but realistically, you’ve got to hope that he’ll be as good as Igoudala. Calderon’s playmaking will be missed, but as I stated above, he’s not indispensable. The addition of Igoudala would give the Raptors an incredible starting five, a top defender, another playmaker and a very good scorer in Igoudala. He’d also immediately become the Raptors second leading rebounder.

The Sixers would get their point guard, and DeRozan would be a prospect that could eventually replace Igoudala.

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And Reality Comes Crashing In

Posted on | October 31, 2009 | 6 Comments

Yes, in a game they should win, after winning a game they shouldn’t, they play badly and lose. Welcome to Raptors basketball, at least for the first month or two. I’m sure expectations were high after winning against Cleveland, but I hope no one thought what we saw there was going to be the norm, at least for a while. This is still a new, young and relatively inexperienced team, and against Memphis, it showed.

After many Raptor fans pencilled him into the All-Star game, Andrea Bargnani showed once again why he’ll never be the player that some hope. He played horribly against Memphis. Horribly. And if he’s not hitting his shot, he’s almost useless. After playing good defense against Cleveland, he couldn’t seem to defend against Memphis and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was responsible for giving up half of those 18 offensive rebounds the Grizzlies grabbed. Time and time again, the man Bargnani should have been boxing out was able to secure the offensive rebound. If he hadn’t fouled out, if I was Triano, I would have sat him down for the final minutes, anyway.

Yes, I’m hard on him, but when you have the kind of talent he has, it’s a shame to waste it. And he did tonight. In my pregame post, I said that I didn’t think that Gasol would play more than 25 minutes. Well, he played 25, but still managed 19 points, 7 rebounds, 3 steals, 2 assists and 1 block. Compare that with Bargnani’s 12, 6, 0, 2 and 0. Guess who got outplayed badly? I did apparently underestimate his offense, however, since I said it was not good enough to keep him on the floor. The guy looks a lot trimmer than he did last season, and I think he’s gotten quicker. The Lakers trade for his brother Pau isn’t looking nearly as lopsided, now. In two games, he’s averaging 20 ppg and 11 rpg.

On the plus side, for the Raptors, I also said that Bosh would have a big game and might go for 30. He went for 37, in large part because he got to the line 14 times. His 12 rebounds were also impressive as were his two blocks. The only bad thing I can say about Bosh’s game was that he was the only one who had a really good one.

Well, actually, Nesterovic played well in limited minutes, as did Belinelli, who is thankfully living up to my preseason hype. I do find it puzzling that Belinelli didn’t play more minutes, however. My one issue with Triano is that I feel he’s limited Belinelli’s minutes too much in both games, so far.

Jack played pretty well, out assisting Calderon, who finally seems to be shooting well again, but uncharacteristically had as many turnovers as assists. DeRozan had a pretty good second half, but that barely made up for the first half he played.

The defense that looked so good against Cleveland was no where to be seen. Guys drove to the hoop without anyone getting in their way, a lot of times. The `house’ that they famously practiced to defend was ransacked and burned to the ground.

I do have some good news, though: The sky is not falling. I’ve probably been one of the more optimistic bloggers out there, and while I was disappointed with the loss, I’m not entirely surprised. As I’ve said over and over, we’re going to see a lot of inconsistency with this club for a while. We have seen how good they can be, but we’ve also seen how they can play if they don’t play defense and protect the boards. They’re not as bad as the team we saw against Memphis, and they’re not yet as good as the team that beat Cleveland. Hopefully, by the All-Star break, they will be.

NOTES:

- Does anyone else understand why Colangelo was trying to grab DeMarre Carroll in the last draft? The guy looks like he’s going to be around the league a while.

- Has anyone else noticed the stats Jermaine O’Neal has been putting up in two games so far this year with Miami? He’s averaging 22 ppg, on 17-25 shooting, and 12 rpg. Wouldn’t it be incredibly ironic if he makes the All-Star team at center and Bargnani doesn’t?

- Chicago beats San Antonio and then loses to Boston by 28 points? Is Boston really this good or is Chicago really that inconsistent?

- With Oklahoma City beating Detroit, the Thunder now have won more games than they did in their first 17 last season. I’d say they’ll probably be one of the more improved teams this year. They’d almost have to be, after finishing with only 23 wins last year.

- Golden State’s rookie, Stephen Curry, had his first real lesson on how to run a team tonight, when he watched Steve Nash rip his team for 20 assists with only 3 turnovers. Curry, himself, had 4 assists on 3 turnovers. The Suns won by 22.

- Cleveland FINALLY won tonight. Of course, it was against Minnesota, so I’m not even sure that will count in the standings. Oh, and Shaq played 19 minutes, scored 6 points and grabbed 7 rebounds. In 3 games this year, he’s averaging 9 ppg and 8 rpg. Anyone else starting to think that Ferry trading for Shaq was a mistake? Yes, it’s a long season, but he’s looking old and slow.

Raptor Offseason Plans and Other Related Things

Posted on | June 30, 2009 | No Comments

ESPN’s Chad Ford recently discussed the different ways GM’s Danny Ferry and Sam Presti are building their respective teams (the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Oklahoma City Thunder). Both men come from a very successful and respected Spurs organization and should have learned a thing or two about how to build a winner. Both men were lucky enough to either inherit or be in a position to draft a superstar. Both men also took over a franchise that hadn’t made the playoffs the previous few seasons. That’s where the similarities end, though.

Ferry tried to surround LeBron with veterans in order to win immediately, whereas Presti has resisted the urge to grab veterans for short-term gain and went with building slowly with youth. And while Cleveland had the best record in the league last season, their three best players, other than LeBron, are currently 26, 34 and 37. And two of them play the same position and only four players who were in the rotation last season are currently under contract. And then there’s Shaq. What does this say about the Cavs’ future and more importantly, what does it say to LeBron? What Ferry did right was manage his contracts right because at the end of next season, not one player over the age of 27 will be under contract.

Presti, on the other hand, traded away most of the veterans he could and currently is employing only two players above the age of 29, and only one of them is considered to be part of the rotation this coming season (Earl Watson), and he’s only 30. Clearly, Presti wanted Kevin Durant to grow with the team and put players around him that could conceivably be with him most of his career. Currently, the five players pencilled in as starters are 20, 19, 20, 22 and a relatively ancient 26. And all of them are talented. When it’s time for Durant to re-sign, he’ll see a young, talented team built around him that, hopefully, has a lot of good years left.

And while I agree, in principle, with what Chad Ford is saying in criticizing Ferry’s plan and lauding Presti’s, I think Presti is making a mistake by avoiding veterans. Young teams generally don’t learn how to win. They just learn to accept losing. The danger is that Kevin Durant and his young teammates will learn bad habits that will prevent them from ever becoming successful players and a successful team. And with them winning only 23 games last season, they are certainly not learning how to win.

I think what Presti needs to do either some some of that cap room they have to sign a veteran or trade away one of their young players and take on a veteran with a bigger contract. I am continued to be reminded of Cleveland the last time they were successful. They had a great young core of Mark Price, Ron Harper and Brad Daugherty, but it wasn’t until they traded for veteran Larry Nance that they made a leap in the standings.

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Chad Ford’s article relates to what the Raptors need to be doing this offseason. With Chris Bosh entering the free agent market next summer, there is a lot of speculation of what the Raptors need to do. Most seem to believe the Raptors have to win right now in order to make Bosh re-sign. Some have even said that if the Raptors don’t reach the second round of the playoffs, Bosh is as good as gone. Obviously this would require either the re-signing of Shawn Marion or the signing of a veteran like Hedo Turkoglu. While this would indeed give Bosh a reason to re-sign, I don’t think Colangelo, or Bosh, is this short-sighted.

With the drafting of DeMar DeRozan (which I like quite bit), I see the Raptors going a different route, and a smarter one at that. Instead of trying to go after immediate gratification by collecting players who are past their prime, Colangelo, I believe, has signaled his intentions by drafting a young player most consider a project. While DeRozan will not make the immediate impact that older, more seasoned rookies such as Gerald Henderson or Terrence Williams will have, he’s got a lot more upside. On a side note, he’s also not nearly as raw as some seem to think- his mid-range game is very, very good, as his .523 shooting percentage attests. I believe Henderson and Williams will have long NBA careers, only DeRozan has the potential to be an All-Star.

Currently, despite having only $46 million in contracts and a salary cap expected to be somewhere close to $56 million, the Raptors are not under the cap. That’s because they have several free agents (Shawn Marion, Anthony Parker, Pops Mensah-Bonsu, Patrick O’Bryant, Quincy Douby and Carlos Delfino) who are taking up room. By renouncing their rights, the Raptors could open up a lot of cap room, but that would mean getting rid of 6 players, 3 of whom would be rotation players. On Doug Smith’s blog, Doug has mentioned several times how bad this would be for the team, and I agree to a point.

This type of discussion comes up because players like Lamar Odom or Hedo Turkoglu would demand close to, if not all, of the $10 million the Raptors would have. The Raptors learned last season how bad an idea it is to have no money, except the veteran minimum, to sign half your roster. You end up with guys like Hasaan Adams and Will Solomon actually on the court at times.

The player I believe the Raptors should be targeting is Trevor Ariza. Now I’m under no illusions that Ariza is a better player than he is, and that if the Lakers didn’t make the Finals, he would probably be getting no more than the MLE this summer. That said, there are several reasons I would target him.

Considering the Raptors needs (defense, athleticism) and signing him would still allow the Raptors to re-sign someone like Carlos Delfino, I think Ariza should be the Raptors prime target. Sure, he doesn’t have the talent that a Turkoglu or Odom, or even Marion has, but if you’re Chris Bosh, what would you rather see at the end of the season: A team that managed to win 50 games, but has given a long term contract to a guy over 30 who is on the decline, or a team that has won 45 games, but a young team that will get better every year your contract would last?

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Speaking of free agents and offseason moves, is there any more proof of how stupid some fans are than the attention guys like Jamal Crawford, Charlie Villanueva, Allen Iverson or Ben Gordon get over at thestar.com?

Jamal Crawford has been in the league 9 years and has not once played on a winning team. That’s astounding. It also says a lot about the player. He’s a combo guard not big enough to play SG full time and doesn’t handle the ball well enough (or pass enough) to play the point. He takes incredibly bad shots, which explains his .404 career shooting percentage. He hasn’t played defense in years and has picked up so many bad habits in the 9 years of playing for lottery teams I wouldn’t be surprised if he actually causes Atlanta to win fewer games next season.

Charlie Villanueva is a really nice guy who loved Toronto. Of course, that doesn’t mean he should play for the Raptors. He’s also a poor defending PF who avoids the paint and can’t get to the line. And despite him being able to shoot from outside, that doesn’t mean he can play SF. I can shoot from the outside, but that doesn’t mean I’m a small forward. Neither of us can defend the other small forwards in the NBA and with the defense that the Raptors play, especially Bosh and Bargnani, that would end up being a disaster. Plus, the guy is incredibly inconsistent, so much so that he ended up playing less time at PF for the Bucks than Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, a 6′6 offensively challenged SF. Sure, money was a factor, but if Villanueva was really that valuable, Milwaukee would have found a way to keep him.

Allen Iverson is an old 34 years old, has seen his last two teams get better AFTER he was traded away, still demands to get a lion’s share of the shots even though he’s well past his prime and even in his prime had trouble guarding other SG’s. At 34 and 6′0 he would be an invitation for any opposing SG’s to go for a career high. And perhaps none of his backers noticed how he finished his season in Detroit. Ya, that’s the kind of guy the Raptors want on their team.

Ben Gordon would be a great choice if he were 3 inches taller, played defense and passed the ball in the fourth quarter. Since he is not, doesn’t and won’t, he’ll end up being a guy casual fans will forever wonder why he doesn’t get more respect around the league. In a perfect world, Gordon would be the third guard on a contender (in a Vinnie “The Microwave” Johnson-type role), but since he thinks he’s too good to come off the bench, I don’t envision that happening.