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The “R” Word
Posted on | July 15, 2010 | 18 Comments
Is it safe to write this, yet? The Turkoglu trade is finally official, so I’m guessing it is. I had written another version earlier this week I had to scrap after Michael Jordan got cold feet and decided not to take Calderon, or more precisely, not to give up Tyson Chandler (in this trade, anyway). I understand his misgivings. I think Calderon would have been a good addition to the team, but Chandler and Boris Diaw are a little too much to give up for him. Especially with his contract (Of course I would rather have taken the trade with the Raptors than the junk he got from Dallas, but that’s another story).
That’s why, despite my affection for Calderon’s game, I liked the trade overall. I have, however to say I’m not disappointed that Jose is still a Raptor. I just wonder for how much longer. It now seems there are rumours about him heading to Indiana for Roy Hibbert, although someone else would have to be added. I did find it incredibly ironic that Calderon was going to be replaced by Chandler, one of the best ally-oop finishers in the game, by really the only player on the Raptors that can throw them effectively. Calderon, for all his weaknesses, IS the perfect PG to play alongside young players like DeRozan, Weems, Johnson and Davis because he is an adept passer and knows where to give it someone to put them in a position to score. Plus his steady hand would offset the turnovers that a young team like the Raptors are no doubt going to rack up next season.
I do think the aborted trade did give a glimpse at the overall plan of Colangelo. The Turkoglu for Barbosa trade could mean anything. Raptor fans are just ecstatic not only to get rid of Turkoglu, but for a player with not only a much better contract, but who can actually contribute. Even better is that if Barbosa has a good year, he could opt out of his contract next summer, making his essentially an expiring contract. Barbosa may not be a real PG, but the fact that he plays that position means that the Raptors have a glut at that position, and that means one of them has to go.
The inclusion of Charlotte in the deal gave you a sense that it might have been Barbosa’s contract that was most appealing to Colangelo. If Calderon had been dealt for Diaw and Chandler, the Raptors would have cleared the books of the two worst contracts on the roster, without bringing back any long term contracts. Calderon would definitely be the better PG to play on this team, especially with Barbosa backing him up, but the fact that Calderon is now apparently being shopped tells me one thing.
Ah, yes, the “R” word.
“Rebuild” is the dreaded word that no GM is ever supposed to mutter. Even if it’s what they mean. In his discussions with the press after the press conference for Amir Johnson, Colangelo accidentally used the “R” word, and then backtracked, instead opting for the word “re-tooling”. He even preferred the word “re-engineer”. Anything but rebuild. The reason is not that Colangelo doesn’t actually wish to rebuild. It’s that a GM cannot use the word rebuild without ramifications. Even if that’s what he’s doing.
The reason Colangelo cannot use the dreaded “R” word has nothing to do with his intentions, but of perception. Admitting you are rebuilding scares away both ticketholders and corporate sponsors, cutting deep into the bottom line. Ownership wouldn’t be very happy about that. Raptor fans criticize MLSE, but as long as they stay in the black, they pretty much let Colangelo do what he wants.
That’s why Colangelo has to give the perception that the Raptors are going to compete, and his aborted deal actually would have brought in players who look like they could have helped, but in actual fact, would have had a negligible effect in the win/loss column. That was the genius of this move. Barbosa, Diaw and Chandler are all talented players. It was not necessarily their talent that Colangelo was after, however. It was their contracts.
If Colangelo were simply retooling, as he claimed, then he would not have worried about getting shorter and expiring contracts, and would have focused on trying to acquire impact players, none of which describes the players he attempted to acquire.
I’ve debated the merits of rebuilding versus retooling among Raptor fans, and the fact that so many fans are against rebuilding is a good indication why Colangelo backed away from that statement. The thing, though, is that many fans seem to be confused by what rebuilding would entail. The fact is, though, the Raptors ARE well on their way in the rebuilding process. Most teams that rebuild don’t have the pieces that the Raptors have. Rebuilding usually requires the team to turn over it’s roster, get rid of any big contracts and acquire younger players and draft picks.
Currently, the Raptors are one of only three teams without a player making 8 figures (Minnesota and Oklahoma are the others). If they trade Calderon, they will have gotten rid of all their bad contracts, and the roster consists of 9 players 26 years of age or under. If the Raptors are rebuilding, they’re already halfway there.
The fear that most fans seem to have is years of losing while acquiring pieces and developing players. The fact that the Raptors are one move away from financial “flexibility” and already have acquired quite a number of talented young players means they are well ahead of the game.
When the Thunder/Sonics drafted Kevin Durant, they only had Jeff Green. It took them a few more years to acquire Westbrook, Sefolosha, Harden, Serge Ibaka and now Cole Aldrich. And still, the situation was completely different for Sam Presti. With the team’s lame duck status in Seattle, he had the luxury of not having to appease fans or corporate sponsors since the team was on it’s way out of town. Colangelo simply doesn’t have that luxury.
If Colangelo wants to rebuild, he has to make it appear to the fans and corporate sponsors that the Raptors are at least going to be competitive. At least reasonably.
Now, admittedly, I’m making a rather large assumption but it’s one that seems to have some basis in fact. The fact that Colangelo has so far refused to use the rather large trade exception they got when Bosh left for Miami shows that he’s not simply willing to do what a team like Utah did, and use it to try and simply replace Bosh. Hopefully Colangelo has realized what many of us have, and that’s that the roster, even with Bosh, was flawed. Simply trying to plug a hole with a lesser talent, like Monta Ellis or Al Jefferson, would have been disastrous. It would have doomed the Raptors to mediocrity. Something that both Charlotte and now Utah seem content on doing. For a fan like me, this is like death.
Instead, Colangelo seems to be attempting to rebuild, yes rebuild, the roster with players that fit better together and hopefully do what it takes to win. With Turkoglu gone, and Calderon apparently next, the Raptors seem to be ridding themselves of below average defenders, something I wholeheartedly applaud. And if that’s the case, Colangelo can’t hold onto Bargnani any longer. Losing Turkoglu and Calderon will only help so much. If you’ve got a weak link in your front line defensively, no matter which position he plays, it will hurt you.
Personally, I was hoping the addition of Chandler meant that Bargnani had become expendable. Sure, they certainly could use his front line scoring, as he’s the only big man on the roster that has any real hope of scoring double digits, but what they need even more is a front line that can protect the hoop and rebound the ball. That’s how you win in the NBA.
So Raptor fans, don’t be afraid of the “R” word. It’s not as scary as you might think. A year or two of losing while building the right kind of team is far, far more appealing than a decade of mediocrity.
The Draft Is Here!!! The Draft Is Here!!!
Posted on | June 23, 2010 | 8 Comments
NBA Draft day is one of my favourite days of the year. It’s the day that separates the optimists and the pessimists. Optimists see this as a a chance to get a future All-Star, pessimists simply see this as another chance for their GM to screw up. I’m guessing there aren’t a lot of pessimists whose favourite team is the Spurs.
Since I consider myself a realistic, I guess I’m somewhere in between.
So as always happens, there are more rumours flying around than at any other time of year. Some is misinformation spread by teams wanting to throw other teams off the scent, some is made up stuff that somehow gets mistaken for real stuff and some is the truth. Unfortunately, it’s virtually impossible to separate the truth from the rumours now, unless you bowl with Chad Ford’s brother-in-law and are in the loop. Unfortunately, I ‘m not, so I have no idea.
A couple of deals have gone down…
- The Thunder have acquired Miami’s 18th pick and Daequan Cook in exchange for their 38th pick. It pays to have cap space around draft time. And for all you Raptor fans that wonder why Colangelo couldn’t pull that off, it’s because the Raptors couldn’t have absorbed Cooks contract.
- The Bucks traded their 2012 second round pick to the Nets for Chris Douglas-Roberts. Between trading for Maggette and getting Douglas-Roberts, it’s appearing that they aren’t banking on bringing Salmons back.
Some of the more interesting rumours flying around include…
- Toronto trading their 13th pick to Portland for Rudy Fernandez and the 22nd pick. My take? If Paul George, Ed Davis or another surprise player doesn’t drop to 13, I’d take this deal. I’m not excited about who else is available and Fernandez is probably better than anyone available there. Of course they’d have to figure out how to play four SGs, but they did that last season with Wright. Well, not very well, I guess. Still, if Turkoglu is traded, DeRozan and Weems could play the 3 and Fernandez and Belinelli man the 2.
- Orlando trading Vince to Washington for Gilbert Arenas. My take? Wow, is this how far Vince has fallen, and is this how desperate the Magic are? What exactly does this mean for Jameer Nelson, who was easily the second best player for the Magic during the playoffs.
- The Clippers trading the 8th pick to the Bulls for Deng. Well, the Clippers would have to actually select for the Bulls, since the Clippers aren’t under the cap until July 1st. This would take them out of the LeBron sweepstakes, but Deng would be a nice piece for them.
- The Nets may surprise everyone and take Wesley Johnson instead of Derrick Favors at the 3rd spot. The thinking, apparently, is that the Nets could simply sign an All-Star free agent (Boozer) and pair him with Johnson. I like Favors a lot more than Johnson, but the rumour does make sense. This summer there are a plethora of All-Star PFs available (Bosh, Stoudamire, Boozer, Dirk and David Lee) so they could pick up an All Star PF and then draft a potential All Star at SF. Still, it’s always best to draft the best player and in my opinion, it’s Favors.
- The Thunder may trade Eric Maynor and their 18th and 21st picks to Indiana for their 10th pick. That would give the Thunder to draft a legit big man, like Udoh, Ed Davis or Cole Aldrich, basically exactly what they need to take the next step. Presti might very well be best GM in the NBA right now.
We’ll see how many of those rumours come to fruition, and how many more start flying around tomorrow.
As for the draft itself, I’m not going to do a mock draft since everyone does that and it’s all basically guesswork. I’m going to take a quick look at some of the players, including which ones I like and which one’s I don’t like.
THE SURE-FIRE ALL-STARS:
John Wall: No explanation needed.
Evan Turner: I think he’s going to be a special player in the NBA.
Derrick Favors: The last player I think is a can’t miss prospect. If he doesn’t go third, the Nets are going to regret it, in my opinion.
POTENTIAL ALL-STARS:
Wesley Johnson: He doesn’t excite me, but he’ll probably end up being a good pick.
Ed Davis: It wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up winning a Championship one day. He’s got a very high basketball IQ and an underrated game.
Paul George: He’s got some bust potential, but I read an article that said he might end up being the best player from this draft 5 years from now. That’s saying something. If he falls to the Raptors, I’ll be thrilled.
PLAYERS I’M UNSURE ABOUT:
DeMarcus Cousins: He’s got the talent to be the best player in the draft, but might have motivational issues and be a knucklehead. These are the types of players that get coaches and GMs fired, get traded around as teams get enticed by his potential, and usually end up disappointing everyone. Yes, he scares me.
Greg Munroe: I was tempted to put him in the previous category, but there’s just something about him that makes me hesitate. He’s certainly got the talent, but is the desire and heart there?
Al-Farouq Aminu: Like the players above, he’s got loads of talent, but he seems so painfully shy and quiet, I wonder how he’ll do in the NBA.
SAFE PICKS:
Cole Aldrich: He’s never going to be an All-Star, but I can see him as a ten year starter and a guy who is going to be a solid defender and rebounder.
Xavier Henry: There’s little spectacular about him, but he’s a very good shooter who also players defense. I wouldn’t be upset in the least if the Raptors take him at 13.
MAYBE, JUST MAYBE:
Eric Bledsoe: He had to play off guard beside Wall, but he’s apparently a true PG with blazing speed, good defensive and half decent scoring ability. He’s one of my sleepers.
I’LL GET BACK TO YOU:
Luke Babbitt: He’s a 6′7 small forward whose game might be better suited for power forward, but not his body. Guys like this never seem to work out.
Ekpe Udoh: He’s a fairly raw 23 year old athletic big man who is best at the defensive end. If he was 3 years younger, I’d be more enthusiastic, but at 23, you have to wonder why he hasn’t polished his game more.
Patrick Patterson: He’s a tough, undersized PF who isn’t a great rebounder or defender. So if he isn’t a great rebounder or defender, who cares how tough he is?
Gordon Hayward: If he didn’t surprise everyone and lead his team to the final game of the NCAA’s, would he be rated as high as he is? Why can’t I get Luke Jackson out of my head?
NO THANKS:
Avery Bradley: The fact that his name is so often connected with the Raptors scares the hell out of me. He’s got no PG skills, is undersized at the 2 and doesn’t finish well or draw contact when he drives. People love his defense, but Marcus Banks plays great defense, too. And he barely got off the bench. Oh, and they’re about the same size.
Hassan Whiteside: He’s extremely long, blocked 5.4 shots per game last season and is pretty mobile. Of course, i’ve heard he couldn’t even get really motivated during workouts. How do you think he’s going to do once he’s paid?
INTRIGUING PROSPECTS:
Damion Jones: A tough, excellent rebounding, athletic SF who plays very good defense. He’s not great on the offensive end, but he brings some talent to the table.
Larry Sanders: He’s got great length and athleticism, but he’s painfully thin. And you have to wonder if Hank Kinglsey is going to be part of his entourage.
Solomon Alabi: Again, great length but very raw. Apparently he’s a great teammate and might motivate his teammates.
Kevin Seraphin: See Alabi, but he’s shorter but stronger.
Willie Warren: You think he kicks himself for not coming out last season? I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being one of the top 15 players in the draft….or craps out after his rookie contract is done.
FINAL PREDICTIONS?
Well, I really have no clue who the Raptors are going to end up with. This draft seems to be far to difficult to gauge. I would be surprised if a big name falls in their laps, or if they end up trading the pick. If nothing else, I think the night will be more full of surprises than usual. And in the end, it’s all about entertainment, isn’t it?
Whispering In Colangelo’s Ear (Trades)
Posted on | June 23, 2010 | No Comments
The last of my trilogy of articles before draft day. If you haven’t read the first, involving the offseason strategy I think Colangelo should use, or the second, discussing the draft, I’d recommend it.
Now, obviously there going to be some trades going down this summer involving the Raptors. I think that’s pretty much guaranteed. I’m not a journalist, so I don’t pretend to have a beat on what the Raptors are going to do. I try and read up and keep informed, but it’s nearly impossible to separate the rumours from truth. I’m not trying to do that here. What I’m doing is suggesting what I feel should be the direction the trades should take and why.
The first thing I’m going to do is discuss each player, whether I would try and trade them or keep them and why. For the most part, I’m going to refrain from posting actual trade proposals, since I simply don’t know what a team would be willing to give away for certain players, but I will offer up teams and players I think might make good targets.
BOSH (Only he knows)
While I’d want to re-sign him, if Bosh wants to go, I’ve already detailed the teams I would want him to go and the players I would be looking to get back.
TURKOGLU (Trade)
I think Turkoglu had a bigger impact that some give him credit for. Despite the fact that he simply didn’t perform up to expectations, he more often than not had a positive impact on the team on the court. He wasn’t used like he was in Orlando, but the Raptors are certainly not built like the Magic so there was bound to be some changes. You can blame the coaches (and many do) but in the end it’s up to Turkoglu to adjust, and he failed to.
At the end of the season, I was of the mind to keep Turkoglu. The main reason was because I didn’t like the idea of buying high (his signing) and selling low. I figured there would be a very good chance that Turkoglu would have a better year and his stock would go up, making him easier to trade. After his little tirade in the Turkish media, and the more I read about the behind the scenes stuff, I think it might very well be best to part ways as soon as possible.
At this point, I’m almost willing to just find the best deal for him and be done with it. Possible trade partners include the Jazz (for a package including Kirilenko), New Jersey (for Jianlian), New York (for Eddy Curry), Golden State (for Biedrins), the Clippers (for a trade exception), Memphis (maybe as part of a package in a sign and trade for Rudy Gay), Minnesota (for Corey Brewer among others), Orlando (for Gortat and Bass) or Sacramento (for Dalembert). How serious any of those trading partners is anyone’s guess, but if Colangelo can trade Turkoglu away without bringing back a similar sized problem, I’d be all for it at this point.
Obviously Gay would be the most appealing option, but many stars would have to align for that to happen, including Gay wanting to sign with Toronto. Biedrins and Kirilenko would be nice options, as would Gortat/Bass and Dalembert, but a trade exception would potentially be almost as valuable.
BARGNANI (Trade)
No surprise here. Unless you’ve got specific types of players that can cover Bargnani’s weaknesses, he’s going to hurt your team. The Raptors have none and I’m not high on his skill set enough to want to build around him.
I believe this is the best time to trade him. He still got that “upside” label and skills that some GMs covet. I think if he’s forced to be the first option on the Raptors this year, his fatal flaws will be highlighted and he’ll be less attractive as an asset. Basically, if he doesn’t fulfill his potential this season, it’s fair to say he never will, and I really don’t think he’s going to fulfill his potential. By trading him this summer, you’re trading him at a high.
I don’t think a lot of teams will be clamouring for his services because his skills are so unique. He’s not a big man who is going to play great defense or rebound, which is what most teams want out of their big men.
Minnesota
The first trading partner I would look at is Minnesota. The T-Wolves started Darko, instead of the more talented Love with Jefferson because they want Jefferson to play at his more natural position of PF and because Darko can play on the perimeter, leaving the inside to Jefferson. On offense, Bargnani would be a perfect pairing for Jefferson. Defense is another story, but we’ll let Minnesota worry about that.
The player I would covet the most would be Ricky Rubio. He would be that elite PG the Raptors have not had since Stoudamire. He would most likely want to go to Toronto and is a player the city should fall in love with. And he’s a winner. The Raptors might have to wait a year before he would suit up, but that would give them a year to rebuild.
If they don’t want to part with Rubio, Kevin Love would be another target. He’s apparently available despite the fact that I think he’s going to be a better player than Jefferson. He rebounds, shoots, defends and is a high IQ player. If Bosh leaves, he’d certainly make the locals (and team) miss him less).
Barring getting either Rubio or Love, I’d be happy getting their 4th pick, especially if Derrick Favors falls there, which there is now a possibility happening, apparently.
Golden State
Bargnani seems to me to be the exact type of player the Warriors like. If they would part with Biedrins and their 6th pick in the draft, I’d be happy. Biedrins would be that rebounding and shot blocking center the Raptors have lacked, and with the 6th pick, the Raptors could grab Al-Farouq Amin or Ed Davis who would fill big needs for the Raptors.
Philadelphia
Now, I have no clue as to whether Philadelphia would want Bargnani, but if they do, they have a few assets I’d focus on. If the rumour is true that they would give away the 2nd pick in exchange for taking Brand, they might agree to take Bargnani and someone like Evans for Brand and the 2nd. Personally, I doubt it, though. Still, I’d take Iguodala for him if they do it. Iguodala would give the Raptors a veteran swingman who is still fairly young and could be paired with DeRozan and/or Weems.
Other teams might include Chicago, Phoenix, New Jersey and New York.
CALDERON (Keep)
Believe it or not, I would keep Calderon. I think he’s far more valuable to the team than as a trade asset at this point. His stock is pretty low at the moment, and if he can have a good year, his stock will go up. If he has another similar year, I really don’t think his stock will go down much. Might as well take a gamble. He does help the team and if you can improve the overall defense of the team, he’s going to look that much better.
JACK (Trade)
I like Jack, but he’s a good young player with an affordable contract, so he’s a valuable asset that might be better off being traded for something more in need. On a team with so many holes, having two good PGs is a luxury. He could be included in a Turkoglu or Bargnani deal, or perhaps with another player on on his own. Because he can start or come off the bench, just about any team could use his services.
WEEMS (Keep or Trade)
I’d much rather keep him, but because of DeRozan, he’s almost a redundancy and if including him in a deal would improve the team, you have to do it.
JOHNSON (Re-sign)
With the likelihood Bosh will leave, re-signing Amir is important. He rebounds, hustles and is only 23. I think if you offer him $5 million, he’ll be back and you won’t be overpaying him.
BELINELLI (Keep)
He didn’t perform as many hoped, but he’s still extremely talented and still young. He’s another guy who you don’t want to sell low, so it’s best to keep him and see if he can fulfill some of that potential.
EVANS (Trade or Keep)
He’s more valuable as expiring fodder in a trade than anything he brings to the team. Still, if he returns he’s at least enthusiastic, so I wouldn’t be disappointed.
BANKS (Trade or Keep)
See Evans, plus it’s nice to have a half decent backup PG at the end of the bench who can actually play.
So there are quite a few trades I think can improve the team. I think Colangelo needs burn up the phone lines on draft day, since many of these trades would include draft picks.
Tomorrow is Draft Day, so I’m going to look more closely at the actual draft.
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