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Raptors @ Spurs Preview
Posted on | November 9, 2009 | No Comments
I’m not going to hide my bias, here. I love the Spurs. Not as much as the Raptors, who will always be closer to my heart by simply being the only Canadian NBA team, but I’ve been a fan of the Spurs for many years. A lot of that has to do with their franchise player, Tim Duncan, who I share a name with and a love of fundamental basketball. Sure, some call it boring, but true basketball fans enjoy watching basketball played at it’s best, and over the last 12 years, the Spurs have played some of the best basketball in the NBA. In fact, no team has a better record over the last 12 years and only the Lakers have won as many titles (4). Since Tim Duncan was drafted by the Spurs, 12 years ago, the Spurs have never missed the playoffs and, in fact, only missed going passed the first round twice. When Duncan missed the playoffs due to injury and last season, when Manu Ginobili missed the playoffs due to injury. Being a Spurs fan has it’s perks.
What makes the Spurs success even more amazing is the fact that, Duncan is the only player that was on each of those Championship team. It’s hard enough to build one Championship team, but two? Chicago did something similar, but with both Jordan and Pippen.
Some might say that this is not the same Spurs team. Duncan is getting older and hasn’t averaged 20 points in two seasons, a far cry when he was winning MVP’s, the last one in 2003. He’s obviously declined. Or has he?
Well, Duncan is obviously not the player he was. He’s not as quick and not as dominant, but the funny thing about Duncan, is that his per 36 minutes stats have been remarkably consistent from his rookie season. It’s actually eery. Mr Consistency he truly is. He averaged 19.4 ppg, 11 rpg and 2.3 bpg his rookie season, 21.3 ppg, 11.8 rpg ans 2.7 bpg when the Spurs won their second title and he won his second MVP award, and 20.7 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 1.8 bpg last season per 36 minutes. Obviously, it’s not his play that has decreased as much as his minutes.
In his peak, Duncan was clocking in at over 40 mpg, but over the years, Gregg Popovich has learned how to control his minutes, which saves Duncan for the playoffs. In fact this season, Duncan is only averaging 29 mpg, a career low. Popovich is a master at watching the minutes of his players. During their last championship run, the big three on the Spurs, Duncan, Parker and Ginobili, averaged 34.1, 32.5 and 27.5 mpg respectively. Contrast that with Phoenix when they won 62 games, and 5 players played more than any other Spur did. Is it any wonder than the Suns always looked tired by the time the playoffs rolled around?
Now you may be wondering what this has to do with the Raptors game. Well, the Spurs are always looking ahead to the playoffs. The regular season, to them, is not nearly as important as the second season. A few games lost here and there is not nearly as important as a healthy and rested roster come the playoffs. In fact, in many way, Popovich looks at November as part of the preseason. He tinkers with his lineups, gives big minutes to lesser players and rookies, and rests his best players. That’s why it really not surprising, to people that know them, that the Spurs are sitting at a rather pedestrian 2-3 coming into this game.
A lot of people will write them off, but that would be a mistake. In many ways, they are like the Raptors. They have several new players who need to find their place on the team, and even an international player that, after doing nothing all summer, has started the season looking out of sorts and shooting poorly so far.
I was watching a Spurs game last week and laughed when I heard Doug Collins mention this fact about Ginobili, because, as Raptor fans know, Calderon had been going through something very similar. I was going to post something about it, but thought I would wait for the Raptors game against the Spurs. Then, Calderon had two good games and the criticism seems to have stopped.
Well, I normally make predictions about who is going to play well and not, and who is going to play more or less. Parker will not be playing, but I’m going to guess this is the game that Ginobili breaks out. Does that mean bad news for the Raptors? Probably. Duncan just might hold Bosh to a season low, and the Spurs are good enough team defenders that they probably won’t let Bargnani go off, which means the Raptors may be in trouble.
Then again, it’s only November, so this could be a game that Popovich decides to tinker and pretend it’s preseason. In that case, the Raptors have a good chance.
Which Spurs team is going to show up? That’s the question.
UPDATE:
Duncan is out, which means the Spurs are missing two starters. So far, the Raptors are 1 and 1 when playing a team missing two starters. The thing is, even without Duncan and Parker, the Spurs are pretty deep. It’s not going to be a cakewalk, but the Raptors certainly have a better chance at pulling it out.
5 Predictions for the Rest of the League
Posted on | October 28, 2009 | No Comments
[Blogger's Note: I started writing this post yesterday before the first games, but was interrupted]
Since the season starts today, and I haven’t even come close to making good on my announcement to post a prediction a day, I thought I would get them all done in one fell swoop.
PREDICTION #1
CLEVELAND WILL REGRET TRADING FOR SHAQ
Quick, name the last MVP winner to be an All Star on five different NBA teams. Can’t? That’s because there isn’t one. A few have achieved great success with multiple teams (Garnett, Barkley, Moses Malone etc.) and a couple have even won Championships on at least one team (Kareem, Shaq), but, generally, teams tend to hold onto their MVP players. It’s obvious why, MVP calibre players are a very rare thing. Since the NBA has been giving out the award (since 1956), only 25 players have won the award.
Very few MVP winners have been traded while still playing All-Star calibre basketball. Usually, it’s because the team is rebuilding and want to send the player to a winning team. This is the NBA’s version of a golden parachute. Wilt Chamberlain won a Championship this way, and so did Garnett. Teams appreciate the hard work and wish to reward the player by not having them endure losing basketball.
Then there is the other reason. The `problem’ or demand. Kareem famously demanded to be traded out of Milwaukee. Iverson was shown the way out of Philadelphia because he couldn’t help the team win, and they didn’t feel like putting up with him if they weren’t winning. And then there’s Shaq.
I already alluded to this here and here, but I really don’t understand Danny Ferry trading for Shaq. This season, Shaq will play for his fifth team and probably end up being an All-Star once again.The problem is, every single place he’s played he’s left plenty of baggage behind. In Orlando, he feuded with the coach and other star player (Penny Hardaway), before leaving them via free agency.
In his next port of call, Los Angeles, he constantly feuded with Kobe, insulted the GM and ownership and then after he was traded away, made disparaging remarks about coach Phil Jackson.
In Miami, he finally seemed to get along with the other star player, but with the star player hurt, Shaq couldn’t help the Heat win and was traded to Phoenix. Of course, while playing for Phoenix, he made disparaging remarks about his former coach, Stan Van Gundy.
In Phoenix, he took the team from a contender to lottery dweller, and then was traded away after, reportedly, the veterans on the team grew sick of his act and unprofessional behaviour.
There is no doubt that Shaq is an incredibly talented player who is still one of the top five players at his position in the league. What he is not, however, is a low maintenance veteran who can seamlessly fit into any contender’s roster. Even though, Danny Ferry mentored with the Spurs, he didn’t seem to learn a lot from R.C. Buford and Greg Popovich.
The Spurs are famous for adding veterans who fit in the system well and require little handholding. I haven’t heard one bad word about their pickup of Richard Jefferson, who is exactly what the Spurs need, an athletic veteran who has plenty of playoff experience, and knows how to play with great players, without them changing how they play. McDyess is also a low maintenance veteran who will fit in seamlessly.
Shaq is a dominant player with a dominant personality. He demands attention on the court, but off it, as well. He craves attention. For someone who has never really had much of a passion for basketball, I think he’s stayed in the game so long because it’s the best way to stay in the spotlight.
The next time Shaq opens his mouth and says something intelligent, it may be the first time, but, believe it or not, off the court is the place Shaq is going to disrupt the Cavs the least. The place where he is going to be most disruptive is on the court.
Now, I’m not saying that Shaq isn’t still a very good player. He’s still very tough to guard, requires automatic double teams and can clog the lane better than most centers. On the right team, he could most definitely help. Chicago, with it’s lack of inside scoring, good defensive players and no dominant scorer, could use someone like Shaq, but he would be a temporary solution to a team looking long term.
In Cleveland, though, Shaq is going to a team with one of the best scorers in the game, who uses the lane like his own personal airport. LeBron’s biggest weakness is his outside shooting, and scores inside more than many power forwards. Cleveland won so many games by, essentially, surrounding LeBron with shooters he could kick the ball out to when double and triple teamed. Even their center, Ilgauskas, shoots mostly jumpshots. Of course, Ilgauskas has two big weaknesses that sometimes made him a liability on the court. He’s incredibly slow and he can’t guard the pick and roll (well, they’re related, but you get my point). Plus, he makes way more than he’s worth. So what do they do? They go out and trade for a player who is slow and can’t guard the pick and roll. The Cavs lost against Orlando not just due to the play of Dwight Howard (that was obviously part of it), but because Cleveland couldn’t guard Orlando’s pick and roll where everyone but Dwight could hit the jumper, and because of Cleveland couldn’t guard the big, quick wings of the Magic.
I think the trade for Shaq was a knee jerk reaction to being beaten Dwight Howard and the Magic, but it doesn’t look like a well thought out move at all. Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon were pretty good additions (especially Parker), but they overpaid for them (especially for Moon) and improved less than any of the other contenders in the league. If they win 60 games this year (after winning 66 last season), I’ll be surprised. Now obviously just having LeBron is going to keep them in contention, but getting back to the Finals (remember they were there three years ago) is a longshot. And despite Shaq’s liabilities, if he misses games, as he so often does, it’s really going to hurt the Cavs because they have such little depth, now.
PREDICTION #2
DALLAS WILL BE A SURPRISE TEAM
Yes, they won 50 games last year, but the addition of Shawn Marion wasn’t touted as much of an improvement to the Mavericks. Kidd is past getting old and is now just old, Dirk is starting to decline, Josh Howard is still hurt after being hurt much of last season and not getting being able to sign Gortat means they have to depend on Erick Dampier to man the middle. Again. Still, I think with Marion is one of the best additions to any team, despite his age and decline. If he can give then a couple of good seasons, that’s all they need. Will they get back to the Finals? Doubtful, with the Lakers and Spurs being as good as they are, but a return to the second round is likely.
Dallas can now put on the floor Dirk, Marion, Howard, Jason Terry and Jason Kidd. That’s as potent a lineup as anyone in the league. Plus, Marion brings rebounding and defense, which wasn’t bad last season. When they run, is anyone going to be able to stop them?
PREDICTION #3
ORLANDO WILL MISS TURKOGLU
Yes, I know they didn’t lose in the preseason, but if you read my post about the preseason, you’ll understand why I don’t pay attention to that.
Now, I think Orlando will still be a contender, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them back in the Finals again this year, but despite Carter being a much more explosive scorer and more athletic, I don’t think he’s an upgrade. First of all, he’s turning 33 this season, and for a guy you depends on athleticism, and who is known for being rather lackadaisical when it comes to training, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start declining badly this season. And while Turkoglu gave other teams matchup problems with his size, which is one reason they were able to beat the Cavs, Carter does not. And Carter might be worse defensively than Turkoglu.
The question now, is, who is going to initiate the offense during crunchtime? Nelson runs an offense nicely, but, like the Raptors Calderon, he doesn’t break down the defense. The best guy on the roster to do that, now, is Carter, and he didn’t even do it that much in New Jersey with Kidd and then Devin Harris as the point guards.
Plus, with Carter’s age and history of injuries, is he going to be able to last the season? And if he doesn’t can the Magic make up for his absence?
PREDICTION #4
DETROIT WILL HAVE TO REBUILD THEIR TEAM
I was never in the “Joe Dumars is a genius GM”-camp. His two best moves were also incredibly lucky. He lost Grant Hill to the Magic, but I don’t think anyone knew how good Ben Wallace was going to be, and I was a fan of his in Orlando, and felt they made a mistake letting him go in return. Without Big Ben, and the addition of Rasheed Wallace, for basically nothing, Detroit doesn’t win their Championship.
He’s had just as many hits as misses in the draft (the Darko Milicic pick will forever haunt him), and has a track record of losing good coaches too quickly- fired Carlisle after he took them back to the playoffs, lost Larry Brown after just two seasons and fired Flip Saunders after guiding them to the Conference Finals three straight years. His Michael Curry selection was a disaster and we’ll see how the current coach goes.
What settles it for me, however, is the signing of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva this summer. With lots of cap room to spend, and a chance to try and get back to the playoffs, he overpays two of the most overrated players on the market. Gordon is a PG-sized SG who is one of the best shooters in the league, but doesn’t do anything else. At all. He doesn’t play defense, and is very undersized at his position, anyway, and doesn’t pass in the fourth quarter. Watch him. He’ll force everything while his teammates are wide open. Yes, he’ll hit some of those shots, but he’ll lose just as many games for his team as he’ll win.
And Villanueva is a jumpshooting big man who avoids the lane like Angelina Jolie avoids food. And despite deluded Raptor fans yearning for his return, he would become the Raptors worst defender if he did. He’s horrible.
On a contender, I don’t see either starting, or getting more than 20 mpg, because of their weaknesses, but Dumars is paying them close to $17 million this season.
Detroit is going to struggle. They won 39 games last year, and that was with McDyess and Wallace (as well as Iverson for part of the season). Stuckey isn’t the PG some thought he would be. Hamilton is on the short list to get traded by the deadline, and their lone center on the roster is Kwame Brown.
By the All-Star break, I think everyone, including Dumars, is going to realize that this teams needs to be blown up.
PREDICTIONS #5
THE SPURS WILL WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP
Now, it wasn’t so long ago that I would pick the Spurs every single year, and be right half the time. The last two years I didn’t pick them, but with the moves they made this offseason, they’re my favourite once again. Of course this is contingent on everyone being healthy, which isn’t a guarantee.
When DuJuan Blair started dropping, in the draft, I wasn’t surprised. There were questions about his knees and teams don’t want players with knee problems, especially if they have to give them a guaranteed contract. But even at the end of the first round, you’re only talking about two guaranteed years. That’s not a lot when you’re talking about someone who should have been a lottery pick. You’d think the gamble would be worth it. I get the feeling that lots of teams are going to regret passing on Blair. And can you choose two better veterans to learn from than Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess?
The trade for Jefferson gets my vote for best offseason trade. He’s exactly what the Spurs lacked last season, and exactly what they need. He can score from outside and inside, defend, rebound, handle the ball and pass. He’s been to the Finals twice (losing against the Spurs, once), plays better when surrounded by good players and has been around the league long enough that he’s a wily, yet is still under 30. Sure, that contract is pretty bad, but if ownership will pay, then it doesn’t matter. With Jefferson on board, Ginobili can take it easier in the regular season and make it to the playoffs healthy.
Antonio McDyess is also a prefect pickup for the Spurs because he’s a smart veteran who can start at center, play defense, and score when needed. He can also start, but won’t be depended on to play a lot of minutes with Blair playing behind him. He can play enough minutes, however, to give Duncan plenty of rest. In fact, Duncan might end up playing the fewest mpg of his career. And this on a team run by a coach who knows how to limit his star player’s minutes and still win.
It may be a tough road, especially against the Lakers, but I think the Spurs are just too talented and experienced to be beaten this year. It might also be the Spurs last hurrah as Duncan and Ginobili enter their twilight playing years.
Why I Hate The Preseason
Posted on | October 20, 2009 | 12 Comments
(We interrupt these regularly scheduled predictions to bring you this emergency message)
I love the internet. I love that I can talk to people on the other side of the world as easily as I can talk to someone a block away. I love that you can find just about any information immediately. This is especially true as a basketball fan. Believe it, or not, there was a time when you had to wait for the newspaper to come to read about the NBA, and then you’d just get a story or two. I subscribed to Sports Illustrated back then, despite following no other sport other than basketball. It was quite difficult to get my basketball fix. Then came the internet.
Now, however much I love the internet, it does have it’s downsides, not the least of which is the decline of the correct use of grammar. Now, with everything being immediate, we expect immediate news all the time, and not just news, but conclusions, as well. The first time I really noticed it, in relation to basketball, was back when Kobe was in his third and fourth seasons in the league. More specifically, the playoffs. The problem with the playoffs, is that there are sometimes two or three days in between games, and in internet time, that’s an eternity. Fans yearn for information and sports writers are obliged to give it to them. After a good game, people were touting him as the next Jordan, after an off game, they were writing him off. It was ridiculous that people were trying to come to conclusions based on one or two games.
Now, some of you may be wondering what on earth this has to do with the Raptors. Well, it explains why I hate the preseason. With so little to actually write about, writers and fans alike start seeing too much into what are really meaningless games. Here’s one example:
“[DeRozan], shooting woes aside, has shown flashes in these pretend games. He’s willing to go to the rim (although it’d be nice if he’d be a better free throw shooter when he did) and his defence, while spotty, is not despicable.”
Now, Doug is usually pretty even keeled, so I was a little taken aback by the statement about his free throw shooting. You see, before Sunday’s game against Boston, DeMar DeRozan had gone to the line 30 times, and missed only 6 of them. That’s 87%. Now, he’s obviously not that good a free throw shooter, as his 3-7 shooting night against Boston showed, but the guy is still shooting an extremely respectable 78% for the preseason. But today, people’s memory are short, so anything beyond the last game is too far to remember.
Here’s another example:
“Pre-season is pre-season, but a glance at the league standings more-or-less corresponds with the general expectations of what the standings will look like when the ball goes up for real: In either conference there are no projected top-four seeds that are simply stinking it up…..The bottom third of the standings in each conference look about right, with clubs like Minnesota, Sacramento, Memphis, Jersey and Toronto all struggling. The Raptors better hope they’re the exception.”
Now, I realize that Grange was not making grand conclusions based on the standings, but he was certainly not giving all the information. This is how Raptor fans get in a tizzy (I think that’s the first time I’ve ever typed that word). Someone writes something, and fans latch onto it and get WAAAY ahead of themselves.
Let’s look at this logically. Grange mentions that teams like the Lakers, Spurs, Orlando and Boston are all at the top, and Cleveland is not far behind despite battling the flu. Well, without being too blunt…DUH! Those are all veteran teams with the majority of their core intact. Even their bench probably knows all the plays pretty well. Is it any wonder they would play well, even in pre-season? Even Orlando, which probably had the biggest core change, has seven of their top ten players returning. The systems for the top teams are well in place, most of the players know one another, and most of the new players are veterans. And believe me, that makes a difference.
“When we were running through one drill with Rasheed, he’d say “oh yeah, that’s the one where Paul pops up here…etc, etc.” Many times Sheed would know the play better then some of our own guys!”
Doc Rivers, as reported by Raptors HQ
Read that quote again. It says a lot. There’s a reason that contenders like San Antonio and Boston always go after veterans to fill out their roster. Even if they don’t know the plays, they know how things work and require very little maintenance.
Let’s look at the Spurs, who added four players, three of whom will be heavy rotation players (Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess and DeJuan Blair). McDyess is a 13 year veteran, Jefferson an 8 year veteran, and both of them ironically have been to the Finals where they lost against the Spurs. Even Theo Ratliff, who probably won’t play much more than 10 mpg, if that, is a 14 year veteran. My guess is none of them required much attention during preseason. In total, the Spurs have ten players with at least 5 years experience, and of the players who figure to be in the top eleven in the Spurs rotation, only two have fewer than 5 years experience.
In contrast, of the top eleven Raptor players, only four have 5 or more years experience (Turkoglu, Nesterovic, Evans and Bosh). And of the new players who figure to be part of the rotation, four (Weems, Johnson, Belinelli and DeRozan) have never played a thousand minutes in an NBA season.
And we haven’t even discussed the fact that it’s a new system that none of these players have learned before, taught by a coach who has been a head coach for less than a year.
Another thing that Doug Smith did, in his blog, was show the preseason records for the Raptors over the years and then how they did in the regular season. He did it to show how little correlation there was between preseason and regular season, but some readers realized that when they had their best season, they finished 6-1, and when they were a bad team, they finished below .500 in the preseason. Well, you can imagine the conclusions they jumped to. Well, a little digging would have brought up some interesting facts about that season…
- Minnesota went 5-3 in the preseason, and 32-50 in the regular season.
- Golden State went 5-1 in the preseason, but went 42-40 the rest of the way.
- Meanwhile, Phoenix finished with a 3-3 record in the preseason, yet somehow managed to win 61 games that year.
- Dallas barely made it through preseason with a 3-5 record, but won a league best 67 games.
Now please, tell me again that you can see some correlation between the preseason and regular season.
And let’s not forget that team’s make up their own preseason schedule, and can play anyone they want. Some teams go easy, others play tougher teams. Some teams try to win, and play their starters more than others. Speaking of which, of Bargnani, Bosh, Turkoglu and Calderon, the players who will probably play the most minutes on the team, how many times during preseason do you think they played at least 30 minutes?
Answer: Once. Total. Bosh played 31 against Boston.
This Raptors team is young, inexperienced, unfamiliar with each other, and are all learning a new offense and defense from a relatively new coach. Can anyone explain to me why anyone would think that the Raptors have a hope in hell of looking half decent during this preseason? Or why it won’t take at least a month to start figuring things out?
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