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How’s That Crystal Ball? (All-Star Version)
Posted on | February 10, 2010 | 5 Comments
Before we get to the predictions, I have to say a few words about the win against Philadelphia. It’s funny how, when they were up by 20+, I really didn’t see how they would let the Sixers back in the game the way they were playing, but of course they did. It’s what makes them fun to watch, I guess. And however frustrating it is, and dangerous, it is also reassuring that they can do that but still come through when it counts. The Raptors went on a 9-0 run to finish the game after the Sixers tied the game at 93. Ya, they shouldn’t have let them back in the game, but to finish a game like that is impressive.
Now back to our regularly scheduled post…
Since the All Star break is upon us (for the Raptors, anyway), I thought it would be a good time to look back and see how my pre-season predictions are doing.
The first prediction I made was at the end of a very long look back at Colangelo’s tenure with the Raptors.
For those that want to read it in context, it’s right near the bottom, in the Final Analysis.
So way back before training camp even started, my prediction for the season was 45 wins and a chance at home court advantage. Right now, the Raptors are sitting at 28-23 and .549, which translates over 82 games to….
45 wins!
Great, but the season isn’t over yet. They could hit a losing streak or rough patch and never reach that number, or they could continue at their current pace (22-10) since they turned things around at the beginning of December and win 49 games. Personally, I’d like to see the latter happen even if my prediction ends up being wrong.
“Bosh will have a career year, lead the Raptors back to the playoffs and re-sign”
Bosh currently has career high averages in points (24.4 ppg), rebounds (11.4 rpg) and field goal percentage (.525). I’d say he’s having a career year.
Now after the offseason, many questioned whether Bosh would be able to average his normal scoring numbers this season, with the addition of Turkoglu and the continued development of Bargnani, as well as the other additions. Personally, I thought all the additions would HELP, not HURT his statistics. Just about all of the great offensive players the Raptors added were also great passers and I felt that with Bosh planning to score inside more “just an increase by a couple of percent would bring him near the 24 ppg mark”, which is where he now stands.
Now, obviously, the playoffs seem definitely in reach, with the Raptors comfortably sitting in the 5th spot in the East. Home court looks out of reach, but should Boston continue to stumble, you never know. I doubt it, though.
We’ll have to wait until this summer to see whether the last part of my prediction comes true.
“The Raptors will struggle out of the gate but put things together by Christmas”
Well, I wasn’t optimistic enough with this prediction, it seems. They pretty much turned things around after their awful loss against Atlanta. Of course, I also wrote…
“In December, they’ll go 9-6 and people will start forgetting the start, but still talk about trading Bosh. January will see them go 9-6 again, and fans will start talking about trying to get a top seed in the playoffs.”
In December they DID go 9-6, but actually ended up winning 10 games in January, not 9. There was talk of trading Bosh during the rough start, but it subsided in January. Really, Raptor fans are a predictable lot!
It wasn’t really hard to make this prediction, though, however accurate it is. The Raptors were a new, young team, but talented. They got off to a 7-14 the last time they had a rebuilt roster, so it wasn’t much of a stretch, especially considering the tough schedule, that something similar would happen this year.
“Bosh will be the only Raptor All-Star, but not the only Raptor at All-Star Weekend”
Pretty self explanatory here. I was wrong, though, in guessing that Shaq would again be an All-Star (thank goodness), and injuries took away any hope that Danny Granger would return to the All-Star game this season.
I suggested that Bargnani would be a good fit for the 3 point shootout, and I think it’s too bad he wasn’t invited. I think his style of shooting is made for this type of contest. In the end, I think the fact that he actually had a more well rounded offense might have, ironically, hurt his chances.
DeMar will be there, but is not guaranteed to be in the dunk contest. Instead, he’s going in the dunk off. I’m predicting right here he’ll win that dunk off against a guy not really known for dunking and then come in third in the Slam Dunk Contest. I’d love to see him win, though.
“Marco Belinelli will eventually be in the top 3 in voting for 6th Man of the Year”
He’s been up and down this year, but when he’s up, you can see the potential for this. Keep in mind, I made this prediction during a horrible pre-season for Marco. I made some comparisons to Ginobili, which I still think hold true. We’ll have to wait on this one.
“The Raptors will end up being a half decent defensive team”
In November, this prediction looked WAY off, and I won’t lie to you, I was a little worried. Bargnani was not playing defense like I had anticipated, and Calderon has yet to return to the type of defense he played when Ford was in town. In fact, I don’t know if any Raptors looked good defensively in November.
What turned the team around in December, however, was probably their defense. It’s still not great, but it’s about what I said it would be, half decent. They have the ability to play very good defense for stretches, and that’s all they’ve needed to do to in order to achieve the success they have.
Although they have now become a half decent defensive team, if they truly want to become contenders, they have to take the next step defensively. The question is, whether they need to make a trade for this to happen.
“The Raptors will not make it to the second round of the playoffs”
Well, since the playoffs haven’t happened, yet, it’s impossible to know whether this prediction will come true, but at this point, they’re a 5th seed and if the playoffs started today, they would face the Celtics, who they haven’t won a game against this season.
Hopefully things will change.
The rest of the predictions were for around the league….
Things have actually turned out better than I had expected in Cleveland, but I don’t think we have Shaq to thank for this. He’s averaging a career low 11.7 ppg and 6.8 rpg in just 23.2 mpg. They’re a worse defensive team this season, and I think they’ll need to make a trade in order to position themselves better for this summer. They have a lot of older veterans who are on the decline.
As for Shaq, himself, he’s pretty much kept his mouth shut and tried to be a good citizen in Cleveland. Maybe he knows this will be his last chance, or perhaps he heard too much about what he’s left behind. Personally, I just think it’s too early. He’s usually on his best behaviour at first, but he just can’t keep his mouth shut forever. Eventually, you know something stupid is going to come out.
They’re actually on exactly the same pace as last year, but they’ve been very erratic. Howard has not played well when he’s played, and he’s most likely gone by the trade deadline. Now, I’m going to guess that Dallas could get a very good piece in return for Howard. The main reason is because, for all intent and purposes, he’s got an expiring contract. Howard is set to make $11.8 million next season in the last year of a contract given to him when he played a lot better and looked to have a much brighter future. But next season is a team option, and I don’t think anyone would pick up that option, so he’s basically an expiring contract.
Do I bring this up in order to misdirect you so you don’t notice that I wasn’t right with this prediction? Well, yes.
Currently, the Magic are on pace to finish a few games behind where they did last year, and numerous articles have been written about how the Magic miss Turkoglu. Notwithstanding the last game, when Carter stepped in his wayback machine and threw up 48 points against New Orleans, Vince has struggled this season in Orlando. He’s got career lows in scoring (16.6 ppg), rebounds (4.4 rpg), assists (2.8 apg) and field goal percentage (.396).
While Turkoglu hasn’t been lighting it up in Toronto, he’s been the facilitator on offense that the Raptors had hoped he’d be and, if push came to shove, the Magic would rather have Turkoglu back. Last year, Orlando was 9-2 in games decided by 3 points or less. This year, they’re 2-3.
While Joe Dumars, the player, was, and still is, one of more underrated players in the game, I’ve always felt that Joe Dumars, the GM, has always been a little overrated. I went into a little detail of it here, but he’s had his share of bad decisions, as well as good ones. Yes, he built a Championship team, but without Rasheed Wallace dropping in his lap, I don’t think they win it, and, quite frankly, I think they were the weakest NBA Champion in recent history.
And while the trade for Iverson made some second guess him, it’s what he did afterwards that was the clincher for me. Using the cap room that Detroit gained to sign Ben Gordon and Charlie Villaneuva made no sense to me. Both players I felt were incredibly overrated. While both are very good offensive players, they’re incredibly flawed players that will make it difficult for them to ever start on a contender. Gordon is an explosive scorer who doesn’t pass and doesn’t play defense. As I said in my prediction, he’d be great off the bench, but I don’t think you want to purposely pay a bench player $11 million.
And Villaneuva is a big tease who’s got lots of offensive ability, avoids the paint and never, ever plays defense. Exactly where does he fit in on the Pistons squad?
Well, it’s the All-Star break and both Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton are both on the block. Personally, I’d put pretty much the entire team on that block. I don’t see much hope, here.
Okay, so they don’t exactly look like contenders right now, and in fact are only a game ahead of Toronto in the league standings, but I still think this team could put it together in time for the playoffs.What I thought was the best pickup in the league, Richard Jefferson, has not been successful. He not only hasn’t been able to fit in offensively, but defensively, as well. I figured his transition would be incredibly smooth, because I thought he was the perfect Spur player. Right now, I’m reading that the Spurs are willing to deal him, but aren’t finding any takers.
I’m going to tick this one off as incomplete….
So I’m not perfect, but I think I’ve done pretty well, prediction-wise.
Now, to make things more interesting, around the same time I made my predictions, my friend, Darren, emailed me three predictions for the upcoming season. Now, normally, we agree on pretty much everything to do with basketball, but there were two of his predictions here that I didn’t agree with. Try and guess which ones…
1. The New York Knicks will win more games than the Toronto Raptors
Just think both teams defense and rebounding isn’t great, but maybe the Knicks will run a better offense over the course of the season
2. Dejuan Blair OR Taj Gibson will get more votes for Rookie of the Year than DeMar Derozan
Just believe in their college stats, and despite them being drafted later, I think they are and will be better NBA players…not a big believer in that “Bigger Upside Potential” for draft choices
3. The Raptors will finish the season with less than 42 wins.
The East is stronger, and the rebounding and defense will be a nagging problem for them, throughout the year.
He even said he would give me $10 for every prediction he got wrong. Well, if nothing else, I’m going to be up 20 bucks come April 14th. Sorry, Darren.
Sometimes I Don’t Like Being Right
Posted on | November 10, 2009 | 10 Comments
If you’re missing you’re two top scorers, and you still have Manu Ginobili and Richard Jefferson on the floor, it’s probably an indication that you’re a pretty good team. For a team built on defense, they sure have some impressive offensive firepower. And it’s why they’ll end up probably playing the best basketball of anyone, come March and April, and `suddenly’ become favourites to get to the Finals.
I predicted Ginobili would have a breakout game, and he did. It wasn’t hard to predict. He’d been playing poorly so far, but the guy is simply too good to keep playing that way, and with Parker out, he would have to do a lot more ball handling and scoring. How better than to get back in rhythm than to be given the ball. I hope Belinelli was watching closely, because Ginobili is who he should pattern his game after. As I previously said, they have a lot of similarities in their games.
Jefferson had his best game as a Spur, and showed why he was probably the best offseason acquisition (they traded Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas for this guy??), but it was Ginobili that killed the Raptors. There was no one that either could, or seemed to want to, guard him on the Raptors.
Even Matt Bonner broke out of his shooting slump against his old team, killing them with his three point shooting, and showing again why Bargnani can never, ever defend shooters like himself and why he can never, ever play small forward again.
Speaking of Bargnani, he didn’t play horribly, but he was as non-existent as a guy who scores 17 points can be. After two good rebounding games in a row, Bargnani reverted to being pushed around in the paint and grabbed only 4 tonight. Unacceptable, especially against a good rebounding team, like the Spurs.
Bosh was Bosh, scoring 32 and 10, but he was certainly as guilty as everyone else on the defensive end.
Calderon now sees to have settled into his groove on the offensive end, while on the defensive end, he still has some work to do, as do the rest of his teammates. George Hill scored one off his career high by driving relentlessly to the hoop, which was as much a team defensive breakdown as the fault of Calderon.
I know that Raptors fans are going to be griping about this loss, and that defense most definitely has to be improved, but the one thing the Raptors have shown in this short season, is that they can score. They have played some very good defensive teams and have never scored less than 101 points. They are currently scoring more than 10 ppg more than last season, when they often struggled to find the hoop. Of course, there’s the other side of the court.
The Raptors are currently undefeated when keeping an opponent under 100 points. The problem is that they’ve only done it three times. You can look at it one of two ways. One is that when the Raptors play defense, they win. The other way to look at it is that when they play an opponent that doesn’t score much, they have a better chance of winning because they won’t HAVE to play much defense. The three teams the Raptors have won against are in the bottom ten in scoring in the league. Cleveland, New Orleans and Detroit all average less than 98 ppg. The good news is that Chicago, their next opponent, hasn’t even cracked 100 points yet, this season, and is 3rd last in points per game. The bad news is that the next four opponents (Clippers, Phoenix, Denver and Utah) all average over 100 points per game.
Still, if the Raptors beat Chicago, Indiana, Charlotte and Washington, who all average less than 98 ppg and who, except for Charlotte, the Raptors all play at home, then they will end up with a 7-13 record. No, that’s not going to get them into the playoffs, but a 7-13 record is exactly what they started with 3 years ago when they ended up winning 47 games. Both this team and that team were completely overhauled and needed time to gell. A reason to be optimistic, if nothing else.
Raptors @ Spurs Preview
Posted on | November 9, 2009 | No Comments
I’m not going to hide my bias, here. I love the Spurs. Not as much as the Raptors, who will always be closer to my heart by simply being the only Canadian NBA team, but I’ve been a fan of the Spurs for many years. A lot of that has to do with their franchise player, Tim Duncan, who I share a name with and a love of fundamental basketball. Sure, some call it boring, but true basketball fans enjoy watching basketball played at it’s best, and over the last 12 years, the Spurs have played some of the best basketball in the NBA. In fact, no team has a better record over the last 12 years and only the Lakers have won as many titles (4). Since Tim Duncan was drafted by the Spurs, 12 years ago, the Spurs have never missed the playoffs and, in fact, only missed going passed the first round twice. When Duncan missed the playoffs due to injury and last season, when Manu Ginobili missed the playoffs due to injury. Being a Spurs fan has it’s perks.
What makes the Spurs success even more amazing is the fact that, Duncan is the only player that was on each of those Championship team. It’s hard enough to build one Championship team, but two? Chicago did something similar, but with both Jordan and Pippen.
Some might say that this is not the same Spurs team. Duncan is getting older and hasn’t averaged 20 points in two seasons, a far cry when he was winning MVP’s, the last one in 2003. He’s obviously declined. Or has he?
Well, Duncan is obviously not the player he was. He’s not as quick and not as dominant, but the funny thing about Duncan, is that his per 36 minutes stats have been remarkably consistent from his rookie season. It’s actually eery. Mr Consistency he truly is. He averaged 19.4 ppg, 11 rpg and 2.3 bpg his rookie season, 21.3 ppg, 11.8 rpg ans 2.7 bpg when the Spurs won their second title and he won his second MVP award, and 20.7 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 1.8 bpg last season per 36 minutes. Obviously, it’s not his play that has decreased as much as his minutes.
In his peak, Duncan was clocking in at over 40 mpg, but over the years, Gregg Popovich has learned how to control his minutes, which saves Duncan for the playoffs. In fact this season, Duncan is only averaging 29 mpg, a career low. Popovich is a master at watching the minutes of his players. During their last championship run, the big three on the Spurs, Duncan, Parker and Ginobili, averaged 34.1, 32.5 and 27.5 mpg respectively. Contrast that with Phoenix when they won 62 games, and 5 players played more than any other Spur did. Is it any wonder than the Suns always looked tired by the time the playoffs rolled around?
Now you may be wondering what this has to do with the Raptors game. Well, the Spurs are always looking ahead to the playoffs. The regular season, to them, is not nearly as important as the second season. A few games lost here and there is not nearly as important as a healthy and rested roster come the playoffs. In fact, in many way, Popovich looks at November as part of the preseason. He tinkers with his lineups, gives big minutes to lesser players and rookies, and rests his best players. That’s why it really not surprising, to people that know them, that the Spurs are sitting at a rather pedestrian 2-3 coming into this game.
A lot of people will write them off, but that would be a mistake. In many ways, they are like the Raptors. They have several new players who need to find their place on the team, and even an international player that, after doing nothing all summer, has started the season looking out of sorts and shooting poorly so far.
I was watching a Spurs game last week and laughed when I heard Doug Collins mention this fact about Ginobili, because, as Raptor fans know, Calderon had been going through something very similar. I was going to post something about it, but thought I would wait for the Raptors game against the Spurs. Then, Calderon had two good games and the criticism seems to have stopped.
Well, I normally make predictions about who is going to play well and not, and who is going to play more or less. Parker will not be playing, but I’m going to guess this is the game that Ginobili breaks out. Does that mean bad news for the Raptors? Probably. Duncan just might hold Bosh to a season low, and the Spurs are good enough team defenders that they probably won’t let Bargnani go off, which means the Raptors may be in trouble.
Then again, it’s only November, so this could be a game that Popovich decides to tinker and pretend it’s preseason. In that case, the Raptors have a good chance.
Which Spurs team is going to show up? That’s the question.
UPDATE:
Duncan is out, which means the Spurs are missing two starters. So far, the Raptors are 1 and 1 when playing a team missing two starters. The thing is, even without Duncan and Parker, the Spurs are pretty deep. It’s not going to be a cakewalk, but the Raptors certainly have a better chance at pulling it out.
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