TORONTO: Exceeds Expectations

5. Jonas Valanciunas

It’s deja vu all over again. Last year, a team above them unexpectedly took an athletic defensive power forward which resulted in a higher ranked big man unexpectedly falling to the Raptors. Colangelo and the Raptors brass probably can’t believe their luck. I was afraid they might still take Knight, but Colangelo showed he is indeed focused on the future, rather than the present.

Valanciunas will fill the void at center the Raptors have been lacking for, well, ever. While apparently a lot of Raptor fans are unhappy with the pick, I think they’ll eventually regret that as Valanciunas is the type of player that Raptor fans love. He’s a high energy player who hustles, defends and rebounds. English, though, is not his strong suit.

On the other hand, the pick they got from the Heat, which they traded to the Bulls for James Johnson, could have been used to pick Corey Joseph at 28, who went one spot later to the Spurs. Who knows if that’s who Colangelo would have picked, as he was projected to go in the second round, but I’ll certainly be comparing their careers. And since the Spurs are pretty much never wrong…

I would have liked to see them try and scoop up another pick, but it’s not a big deal that they didn’t.

SAN ANTONIO: Exceeds Expectations

29. Cory Joseph

Traded George Hill for Indiana’s 15th pick, Kawhi Leonard.

I assumed the Spurs would exceed expectations, and again they have. Trading for Leonard is huge, especially since he was projected to go in the top ten and dropped. He’s the type of defender than the Spurs love, is in the perfect situation, and should step in Bruce Bowen’s shoes, that have been empty for a few years.

If on of my sleepers, Toronto’s Cory Joseph couldn’t get drafted by the Raptors, then the Spurs would have been my second choice. And it’s incredible timing because they might have their replacement for Hill. Yes, he projected to go in the second round, but I think he has first round talent and so, apparently, do the Spurs.haunt them. Burks should be a decent player, but guys like him are a dime a dozen.

CHARLOTTE: Exceeds Expectations

7. Bismack Biyombo
9. Kemba Walker

Traded Stephen Jackson for Sacramento’s 7th pick and Corey Maggette.

Sold 39th pick, Jeremy Tyler to Golden State, I’m guessing for cash.

It hurts to say it, but Charlotte actually did well. I was surprised that they passed on Knight for Biyombo, as they’ve been looking for a real starting PG for, well, their entire existence, but they resisted temptation and went with a guy who I think will be better down the road. I also look forward to watching Biyombo and Tyrus Thomas being on the floor at the same time. The front row needs to watch out.

Maggette was a disaster in Milwaukee and now brings his brand of scoring and no defense to Charlotte. He’s probably going to lose games for them, but that’s kind of what they wanted, so maybe it’s a good thing?

Walker fell, but not as far as I thought he might. I think it’s still a pretty good pick at 9, but Charlotte seems to like picking decent PGs with little upside.

CHICAGO: Exceeds Expectations

23. Nikola Mirotic
30. Jimmy Butler

Traded 28th and 43rd picks for Houstons 23rd pick, Nikola Mirotic.

Butler was very efficient offensively at Butler, and is a very good defender, so the Bulls may have a sleeper on their hands.

How much do you think the Spurs are pissed at not getting Mirotic, who is exactly the type of player they usually scoop up at the end up the first round? He’s a huge steal, but will play overseas for a couple of more seasons. That’s fine with the Bulls.

DENVER: Exceeds Expectations

22. Kenneth Faried
26. Jordan Hamilton
56. Chukwudiebere Maduabum

Traded Raymond Felton for Portland’s 26th pick, Jordan Hamilton, and Andre Miller.

Traded for Laker’s 56th pick, Chukwudiebere Maduabum, somehow.

Although I haven’t confirmed that Denver is, in fact, keeping Faried, if they do this was a very good draft day. I would have liked to have seen them get more for Felton, but Miller is a good, veteran PG that will probably be shipped elsewhere soon. Plus they were able to pick up another pick and a SF who has a chance to be a decent pro.

Faried is the type of player that everyone loves and helps you win. So why didn’t he go higher? Probably because he’s not a scorer and a little undersized.

I have no idea who Chukwudiebere Maduabum, but on his Draft Express profile, he’s listed as Chu Chu. I think he’s worthy of picking just for that. He immediately is in the running for best All-Tim NBA name.

MEMPHIS: Exceeds Expectations

49. Josh Selby

Selby was considered a first round talent, so this has to be considered a steal. Where they’ll find room for him, is another thing.
DETROIT: Exceeds Expectations

8. Brandon Knight
33. Kyle Singler
52. Vernon Macklin

Although I question whether he can play PG, Knight was projected to go in the top 5 and dropped to 8th, so Pistons fans have to be happy. Of course, he kind of presents the same problems that Rodney Stuckey, who’s also a combo guard they tried to turn into a point guard, did.

Singler is never going to be a star, but last year he was considered a middle first round pick and they got him in the second round. I think he’ll hang on and have a decent career as a bench player.

DALLAS: Exceeds Expectations

Traded their 26th pick to Portland for Rudy Fernandez

The rich get richer. Dallas has no use for a rookie and no one picked there was going to help them like Fernandez. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up starting next year.

LAKERS: Exceeds Expectations

41. Darius Morris
46. Andrew Goodelock
58. Ater Majok

Without a first round pick, they were able to pick up a decent prospect, in Darius Morris. This might be the second year in a row they get at least one keeper from the second round.

PHILADELPHIA: Exceeds Expectations

16. Nikola Vucevic
50. Lavoy Allen

Vucevic should end up being a pretty good pro and probable starter. At 16, in this draft, that’s pretty damn good.

CLEVELAND: Meets Expectations

1. Kyrie Irving
4. Tristan Thompson
32. Justin Harper

Irving will probably be the best player, so it was no surprise he was the first pick.

Thompson was the first big surprise of the night. And while I don’t think it’s a bad pick, since I think Thompson is going to be a very good pro, but he was a big reach at 3. Valanciunas would have made much more sense, but apparently Cleveland wants to make an impact immediately. Something they might regret down the line.

I think Cleveland should have offered Minnesota everything but it’s first pick to move up to 2 and draft Williams. If they had come out of the draft with Irving AND Williams, their future would have looked A LOT brighter.

Justin Harper is a stretch 4 that isn’t very big and probably won’t be much of a rebounder in the NBA. If he sticks, it’s because of his shooting. On Cleveland, that’s devoid of talent, he might, but with Antawn Jamison and J.J. Hickson as well as Anderson Varejao, who will probably be traded this summer, it’s puzzling why they’d take another power forward.

NEW YORK: Meets Expectations

45. Josh Harrellson

New York gets the guy Enes Kanter apparently made into the player he is today. So says Harrellson.

MINNESOTA: Meets Expectations

2. Derrick Williams

Traded Jonny Flynn for Houston’s 23rd pick, Nikola Mirotic, and Brad Miller.

For some reason the T-Wolves don’t end up with the 23d pick, so it’s basically a Flynn for Miller deal. Not sure why they’d do that.

Keeping Williams is the right move even though he doubles up on Beasley’s skills. He should be better than Bealsey and should give the Wolves some star power.

UTAH: Meets Expectations

3. Enes Kanter
12. Alec Burks

Although a lot of people had Brandon Knight going to Utah for the months leading up to the draft, they apparently changed their mind with less than a week to go. And while I was a little missed he didn’t fall to the Raptors, I think Utah will be VERY happy they chose Kanter instead of Knight.

Of course, while I think they made the right decision at 3, passing up Leonard, who is probably exactly what the Jazz need, is probably going to

OKLAHOMA CITY: Meets Expectations

27. Reggie Jackson

Jackson is a combo guard who joins an already crowded Thunder backcourt. I really don’t know where he’ll find minutes. I wonder why Oklahoma didn’t simply trade out of the draft.

PORTLAND: Meets Expectations

21. Nolan Smith
51. Jon Diebler

Traded Andre Miller for Raymond Felton

Traded Rudy Fernandez to Dallas for 26th pick, which they gave to Denver in prearranged deal.

Getting Felton for Miller is a great deal for Portland. He might be the young point guard they’ve been looking for all these years.

Unfortunately, picking Nolan Smith over Faried, who they could really use, was a mistake.

ORLANDO: Meets Expectations

53. DeAndre Liggins

He’s a player that was on Kentucky, but now he’s not.

ATLANTA: Meets Expectations

48. Keith Benson

He’s got legit size for an NBA power forward, and he’s stronger than he looks. For the 48th pick, the Hawks did well.

For a team hitting their ceiling, I would have liked to have seen them a little more active. Maybe after the new CBA is signed, whenever that happens.

MIAMI: Approaching Expectations

28. Norris Cole

Somehow got the 28th pick from Chicago to draft Cole, a PG, who should provide insurance in case Bibby is not re-upped.

BOSTON: Approaching  Expectations

27. JuJuan Johnson
55. E’Twaun Moore

Traded their 25th pick for the 27th pick.

Johnson is a decent player, but I don’t see him making any impact on the Celtics, either now or down the line. But would anyone else have?

Moore is an undersized shooting guard, but I’m guessing what attracted Boston was the ability to tell people they drafted JuJuan and E’Twaun. And both are American.

MILWAUKEE: Approaching Expectations

19. Tobias Harris
40. John Leuer

Traded Corey Maggette and 10th pick for Stephen Jackson and Charlotte’s 19th pick, Tobias Harris.

Getting rid of Maggette, who was a disaster, is good, but is Jackson really what they need? And how much longer does he have? Harris is a good pick, though, who’s been compared to Shane Battier.

PHOENIX: Approaching  Expectations

13. Markieff Morris

Morris might make a pretty good role player on a good team. Phoenix, however, needs home runs, not singles. They have a lot of role players and the engine that makes them go, Nash, is nearing the end of his career.

GOLDEN STATE: Approaching Expectations

11. Klay Thompson
37. Jeremy Tyler
44. Charles Jenkins

So they STILL have Monta Ellis, yet decide to draft yet another shooter, while Kawhi Leonard  and Nikola Vucevic were still available. Thompson might be the best player available, for all I know, though, and if Jerry West thinks so, it’s probably true.

I don’t know about Tyler, though, who seems to have the physical tools, but needs maturity.

WASHINGTON: Approaching Expectations

6. Jan Vesely
18.Chris Singleton
34. Shelvin Mack

A lot of teams seemed high on Vesley, but I don’t understand the attraction to him. He’s 6’11 and athletic, but he’s not a great scorer, can’t shoot, isn’t a good ball handler, will probably struggle defensively at the 3 and is a poor rebounder for his size. He’s apparently got a good motor, though, and he’s got a very hot girlfriend, so those are both pluses.

Singleton was on my don’t draft list and I really don’t see how he’s going to play with Vesley. Neither can shoot, but Singleton has even fewer skills than Vesley.

NEW JERSEY: Approaching Expectations

25. Marshon Brooks
36. Jordan Williams

Traded their 27th pick, JaJuan Johnson for Boston’s 25th pick, Marshon Brooks

When I first saw a trade between Boston and New Jersey involving Brooks, I thought it was a blockbuster. No, it was not Brooks Lopez, but Marshon Brooks, who bring his great shooting and horrible defense to a bad defensive team.

CLIPPERS: Needs Improvement

37. Trey Thompkins
47. Travis Leslie

The Clippers traded away a unprotected lottery pick that ended up being Kyrie Irving, who’s probably just what the Clippers could have used to solidify them as one of the teams of the future. What they ended up drafting were two solid NCAA players with probably very little chance of sticking in the NBA.

SACRAMENTO: Needs Improvement

10. Jimmer Fredette
35. Tyler Honeycutt

Traded their 7th pick for Milwaukee’s 10th pick, Jimmer Fredette, and John Salmons

So, the Kings trade John Salmons away, only to trade back for him a couple of years later. And move down in the draft in order to do it. Fredette might be a great shooter, but I don’t see how he helps Sacramento. He’s not going to be a good defender and will do nothing for the chemistry. Keeping the pick and taking Knight or Walker would have been preferable.

HOUSTON: Needs Improvement

14. Marcus Morris
38. Chandler Parsons

Traded Brad Miller, the 23rd pick and a future first rounder for Minnesota’s 20th pick, Donatas Motiejunas, and Jonny Flynn.

Houston’s GM, Daryl Morey, intrigues me. He’s apparently a big advanced stats guy and was initially a guy a lot of Raptor fans wanted to replace Colangelo, but he makes the most head scratching trades. Motiejunas was another on my do not draft list. He doesn’t defend or rebound, but should be able to score a lot, which makes him basically a bigger version of Kevin Martin

Morris is, yet another young, decent power forward to join Houston’s stable of other decent, power forwards. Apparently you can never get enough of them.

Parsons is a typical Rocket small forward. he does a whole lot of things, but none of them really well.

INDIANA: Needs Improvement

Traded their 15th pick, Kawhi Leonard, to the Spurs for George Hill

Don’t the Pacers already have enough PGs who aren’t really PGs? George Hill looked good in the Spurs system, but you need to watch out for those guys, because there’s a good chance he won’t look nearly as good out of it. And while the Pacers already have enough SFs, don’t they know not to trade a draft pick to the Spurs?

NEW ORLEANS: Incomplete

Traded completely out of the draft by trading the 45th pick, Josh Harrellson, to the Knicks for cash.

Why? Because none of them actually possessed the skill that Calderon had that has continually put him back in charge of the team’s offense again and again: The ability to run a team and make his teammates better.

If this year’s playoffs have showed us one thing (and they’ve shown us more than that, but that’s for another post), it’s the importance of someone who can distribute the ball and make those around him better. In most cases, that’s your PG.

Russell Westbrook, despite his All-Star season, is rumoured to be not as secure in Oklahoma as he was before the playoffs after it became apparent that he’s still not a true PG, something that hurt the Thunder against the Mavs.

Speaking of the Mavs, Jason Kidd, despite the fact that he’s closer in age to me than his teammate, Dirk, has been able to help lead his team to the NBA FInals.

But wait, you say, Miami doesn’t have a great PG on their team and they’re in the NBA Finals, too! Yes, but none of their PGs actually run the team. That’s up to two of the best players in the league, in LeBron James and Dywane Wade, and LeBron maybe the best passing SF the game has seen since Larry Bird. So, unless you have a truly transcendent passer at another position, it’s probably best if you have a PG that can actually run an offense and make his teammates better.

That’s why the upcoming draft is such a concern with me. The player that seems to be the most probable Raptor, come June 23rd, seems to be Brandon Knight. Now, I have nothing against Brandon Knight. I think he’s a very good player and, from what I gather, is a very intelligent young man. My problem, however, is that he doesn’t seem to actually be a point guard. None of his strengths (size, scoring ability) are those that you’d look for in a point guard and his weaknesses (questionable decision making, turnover prone, not a great passer) are kind of red flags for a point guard, don’t you think?

The argument I’ve heard supporting drafting him is that he can learn the point guard position. Lots of players have come into the league with questionable PG skills and flourished, haven’t they? Well, no. Not really.

In the last ten years, 19 PGs with universally questionable PG skills have been drafted in the first round: Eric Bledsoe, Avery Bradley, Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Jerryd Bayless, George Hill, Rodney Stuckey, Aaron Brooks, Shannon Brown, Nate Robinson, Luther Head, Ben Gordon, Devin Harris, Delonte West, Kirk Hinrich, Marcus Banks and Juan Dixon.

And that’s not including scoring PGs, who showed the ability to run an offense in college, but whose best attribute was probably scoring, like John Wall or Derrick Rose. It also doesn’t include those that were really SGs, but their teams decided to try and convert them to PG, like Tyreke Evans, Randy Foye and Joe Forte.

Now, there are a lot of talented players on that list. But there are also a lot of players who either have been shipped around from team to team because teams end up longing for a real PG to run their offense, or simply become bench players who can provide instant offense off the bench. And only one of those players have been able to lead his team past the first round of the playoffs as a starting PG. Russell Westbrook. And, as I mentioned, Westbrook’s lack of true PG skills is coming back to haunt him.

Coincidentally, a lot of those PGs with questionable PG skills have been on the wish lists of a lot of Raptor fans over the years. And not coincidentally, most of them have been on the trading block numerous times. The reason is that, despite their offensive skills, teams begin to tire of their inability to actually do what a point guard is supposed to do and run an offense and make those around him better.

The latest is current Minnesota Timberwolves “PG”, Jonny Flynn, who apparently is a favourite of many to be traded to the Raptors. Minnesota surprised many when they selected Flynn as high as they did, and he responded by giving them a mediocre rookie season and a horrible sophomore season. When he came out of Syracuse, NBADraft.net had this to say about him:

Lockdown defender on the perimeter. Flynn enjoys playing defense and seems to take pride in shutting down opposing point guards… Has the basketball IQ, focus and skills to excel as a pick-and-roll point guard at the next level… More of a scorer than a distributor. Detractors question his ability to play the point guard position and run a team. Is he a natural point guard? Is he really ready? On the positive side, he’s a heady player who will likely learn as he goes and improve… Will need to adapt to not having the ball in his hands all the time when he gets to the NBA … Will also have to limit turnovers … Flynn averaged 3.4 TOs per game as a sophomore…

I’m not quite sure WHY everyone seems to want this guy. I have nothing against him, but he really doesn’t seem to be a PG and he certainly hasn’t impressed anyone so far in his NBA career.

Interestingly, Brandon Knight is considered to be an excellent defender, with a high IQ and very good at running the pick and roll. He’s also got questionable PG skills and there are real questions whether he can play the point in the NBA. He’s got many of the same strengths and weaknesses attributed to Flynn when he came out of college.

So what is it exactly about these PGs that lack PG skills that seem to attract so many Raptor fans? I really have no idea. If the survivability of Calderon as a Raptor shows us anything it’s that the ability to run a team trumps just about any other skill a PG has. There are certain skills in the NBA that are instinctual. Rebounding is instinctual. Players either can do it or they can’t. It’s why a guy like Bargnani can’t seem to rebound consistently despite obvious physical abilities, yet a guy like Reggie Evans, who is shorter than most others at his position, rebounds like a demon in heat. Playing the point is instinctual. You can’t think when you’re out there, you have to react instinctively. That’s why so many combo guards struggle, and ultimately fail, to make the transition. Because while they can understand HOW to play the position, they never acquire the instincts of a PG.

—

Speaking of combo guards, I read today that Monta Ellis is rumoured to possibly be on the move to Philadelphia for Andre Iguodala. Now, if this is true, it doesn’t surprise me at all considering that Jerry West was hired in an advisory role recently. Now, it makes no sense from Philadelphia’s perspective, since they already have an offensive minded, undersized SG on their roster, in Lou Williams, but from Golden State’s it makes perfect sense. Iguodala would upgrade their defense and passing, which are two major weaknesses for the team. Iguodala is the perfect backcourt partner for Curry, who is not a true PG, because he does everything well that Curry struggles at. Now if only they can get rid of David Lee for someone who actually plays defense…

5. Carmelo Anthony to the Nets

First of all, I’m sick to death of reading about it. Enough already. Let’s just get it over with.

Also, it makes sense for everyone involved.

No one can give Denver a better package back for Anthony. Derrick Favors, a couple of first rounders and an expiring contract (Troy Murphy) would kick start Denver’s rebuilding process and give them way more in return than Toronto or Cleveland got for their outgoing franchise players. Denver isn’t going anywhere with him. The only time they got past the 1st round was when they traded for Billups and now he’s too old to lead them anywhere. Unless they want to become the Atlanta Hawks of the West, trading Anthony is the best thing for them.

You had to feel a bit bad for the Nets this summer. They went through a nearly historically bad season just so they would be able to have the cap room to make a splash in the offseason, and came up with Travis Outlaw, despite a flashy new owner who wants to become New Jersey’s (and Russia’s) answer to Mark Cuban and their front office putting on a full court press trying to sign one or two of the big names. And they had to overpay Travis Outlaw. They deserve SOMETHING for all their troubles.

Carmelo wants to go to the Knicks, but there a a couple of problems with that. The first is that the Knicks can’t match what New Jersey can send back without hurting their roster. And with Carmelo not being a stellar defender himself, going to a team and coach not exactly known for their defense, wouldn’t be a recipe for success.

And if Carmelo simply waits for the offseason, he’ll probably lose out on a lot of money with the new CBA.

The Nets have a top 10 center, and good PG, a well-respected coached, some nice roll players and an owner willing to spend money. Sure, they’re stuck in New Jersey for another year and a half, but then they’ll be in Brooklyn. And they’re a playoff team with him. If I’m Denver, I’d try and get Al Harrington thrown in there, as well. Even if it means taking Travis Outlaw back.

4. Jeff Green, Cole Aldrich and a 1st round pick for Anderson Varejao

Cleveland needs to rebuild. Maybe they don’t know it, yet, but losing 15 of your last 16 games should tell you something. Varejao is 28 years old and really should not be in Cleveland’s longterm plans. He’s played very well in a bad situation and is probably the player the Cavs can get the more for, right now.

Jeff Green is only 24 and would be a great deal if he would agree to sign an extension. He’s a solid
citizen, a talented player and would be a good piece for the future. Cole Aldrich hasn’t performed up to expectations, so far, but is a defensive 7 footer, something the Cavs don’t have, and is still a rookie. Getting another 1st rounder would be another important piece to a rebuilding team.

Oklahoma was supposed to take the next step this year and become a contender, but while they’ve played well, their weak front court is holding them back, as well as their interior defense. That’s why they drafted Cole Aldrich, but he’s struggled and might be a couple of years away from being a good center, of at all. Varejao isn’t a true center, but he’s performed well as one for Cleveland this year, and would solidify the Thunder’s frontline defensively. Jeff Green is a very good SF, unfortunately on Oklahoma he plays PF. And he’s a luxury they can’t really afford, which is why he hasn’t been extended. It’s a steep price to pay for a PF who doesn’t score, but Varejao would make the Thunder a better team and a real contender.

3. Steve Nash, Grant Hill and Channing Frye for Marvin Williams, Jamal Crawford and a 1st round pick

Does anyone really want to see Steve Nash finish his career on a team that has no hope of ever contending? He deserves better than that and the NBA deserves better than that. He’ll never demand a trade, but Phoenix should do him a favour and give him one.

Same goes for Grant Hill, but to a lesser degree. Nash is Hill’s fountain of youth and it would be a shame to trade Nash to a contender but not Hill. And Channing Frye owes Nash his career, and performs well with him.

Marvin Williams has never lived up to being drafted ahead of Chris Paul and Deron Williams, but he’s a 24 year old, athletic SF who has a lot of talent and a high basketball IQ. He could end up flourishing in a new situation.

Jamal Crawford would be an expiring contract and will help lessen Phoenix salary demands while they rebuild.

Adding Steve Nash to Atlanta’s athletic lineup would be huge and might make them capable of getting to the Conference Finals. Yes, it’s a gamble to add a guy who turns 37 in a month (as well as a guy who just turned 38), but right now Atlanta’s ceiling is the second round and that’s it. If they want to really compete for a Championship, this may be the best chance.

2. Jason Richardson, Jameer Nelson, and Brandon Bass for Andre Iguodala, Elton Brand and Marreese Speights

If Orlando really is going for broke, they might as well go all the way. A starting lineup of Dwight Howard, Elton Brand, Hedo Turkoglu, Andre Iguodala and Gilbert Arenas would have a total salary higher than all but 7 entire teams. And Turkoglu’s salary would would be the smallest.

Plus, I’d love to see how this team does. In Sports Guy terminology, this would be like putting Tom Cruise, Brad Pitt, Will Smith, Leonardo DiCaprio and Jim Carrey in a movie together. Sure, they’re all expensive as hell and a couple of them are past their prime, but you’d want to see it, wouldn’t you?

Philadelphia probably would do it in a second, too.

1. Andrea Bargnani for Darko Milicic and the rights to Ricky Rubio

Come on, anyone who reads this blog on a semi-regular basis can’t be surprised about this one. Andrea Bargnani is having a great year and is scoring a ton of points, but he’s also one of the worst defending centers in the entire league and just about every advanced statistic shows he is actually a liability to the team despite his scoring. And if you don’t believe in advanced statistics, you just need to watch him.

Ricky Rubio is a completely unproven talent that very well might be the second coming of Bobby Hurley. He also possesses a skills that might make him a transcendent PG similar to Steve Nash. The guy has been a winner wherever he’s played, has an otherworldly basketball IQ and just turned 20 in October.

While Darko will never live up to his draft position, he’s actually become a serviceable center this year. He may not be the ideal long term solution, but he defends, rebounds and scores and will certainly do nicely until something better comes along or until either Ed Davis gains 35 pounds or Solomon Alabi becomes an NBA player. And gains 35 pounds.

For Minnesota, they’ve been holding out for Rubio to come since they drafted him, and this is year two. They say they are confident in Rubio finally signing with them this summer, but if if there’s a lockout, that might put a crimp in their plans. First, if they don’t sign Rubio after three years since he was drafted, he can demand to be paid more than the rookie scale. And does anyone really expect Rubio to play for Minnesota?

Getting a high scoring big man to pair with their high rebounding big man, in Kevin Love, might be enough to pry Rubio away. Sure, they will have major problems defensively, but not everyone is such a stickler about that sort of thing. It’s usually only winning teams that worry about that, and Minnesota certainly aren’t that.

So that’s it. Happy New Year and thanks for reading.

So despite assuming it was going to be a major player on the free agent market last season and then basically striking out, and then losing out on the John Wall sweepstakes, the New Jersey Nets are on pace to nearly double their win total from last season. Of course, they only won 12 games last season, so doubling their win total would still put them near the bottom of the league.

Now the Nets seem to be launching a full court press to acquire Carmelo Anthony, but there are reports he wants nothing to do with them. It’s enough to give a Russian billionaire owner a complex. Will absolutely nothing go their way?

What might be of interest to Raptor fans is that the Nets just traded away talented, yet troubled, SG Terrence Williams, along with veteran big man, Joe Smith, for 2 first round picks. It should be of interest for several reasons. The first is that Williams might have been a Raptor, had Colangelo decided against drafting DeRozan. Williams had a little better rookie season than DeRozan, and even had a triple double late last year. This year, however, he seems to have regressed. His production has gone down and he was famously sent down to the D-League after being suspended by the team for “conduct detrimental to the team”. This type of behaviour always scares me because I’ve seen too many talented players flame out due to their own stupidity. And it usually ends up hurting the team, too.

So without Williams, and without Anthony Morrow, who is out with and injury, the Nets have a collection of SGs at their disposal that makes the Raptors wing players look like All-Stars. For once, the Raptors should actually have an advantage at this position. Hopefully this is the type of game that will give DeRozan some confidence. And he needs it. The DeRozan I’ve seen the last month, or so, is not the same guy I saw start the season. That DeRozan drove at the hoop with a vengeance and looked as though he wants to dunk it every time. After a stretch when it appeared the refs swallowed their whistle, on DeRozan’s drives to the hoop, he started to become tentative. A hamstring problem probably didn’t help, but DeRozan has to get back that tenacity he showed earlier int he season.

I don’t know if Calderon will be back, but the game against Chicago showed his importance to this team. He’s the only player on the Raptor roster that has any ability to run an offense, and despite showing promise, Jerryd Bayless has shown he should not start. At least not at this point in his career.

Devin Harris is having a good season, overall, but has struggled the last 6 games. This might be a good game for him to get his groove back.

I’m assuming Bargnani will be back for this game, and he’ll most likely be defended by former Raptor, Kris Humphries. Humphries seems to have finally figured out that he’s at his best when he’s rebounding and defending, and leaving the scoring to others. He might give Bargnani some problems because he’s athletic enough to stay in front of him, but strong enough to keep him off the block.

Of course, Bargnani will probably be defending Brook Lopez, who is putting up good numbers, but has fallen off a little. He’s shooting a lower percentage and his rebounding is almost Bargnani-like. Lopez is a handful for anyone, and it’s likely the Raptors will have to double team him with Amir or Ed Davis.

Speaking of Amir, he’s going to want to rebound from a poor performance against Chicago, and this is the perfect team to do it against. As long as he doesn’t get into foul trouble, he should get a double-double.

The most interesting matchup of the night might be the two rookies, Davis and Derrick Favors. Favors was drafted 10 spots ahead of Davis, but the two are fairly similar players. They are both very athletic PFs who are raw, but have the potential to be very good players. Favors is a smoother player, especially on offense, but Davis might be the better defensive player of the two. And their numbers this year are incredibly similar.

Ed Davis:

Derrick Favors:

What makes the comparison all the more interesting is they are playing virtually the same amount of minutes per game. I’d love to see them get some minutes against one another, and considering they both come off the bench at the same position, it’s likely they will.

Overall, the Raptors are a better team than the Nets, and this should be a team they beat. Unfortunately, that often means the players will not come out hard, and might end up giving the game away.

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On a side note, the Raptors have now fallen a game and a half behind the suddenly hot Philadelphia 76ers. This is the same team that the Raptors beat handily twice, including in Philadelphia. I was surprised by their slow start, as I thought they would be one of the team vying for one of the last playoff spots in the East. Now it looks like that might happen.

Keep in mind, I live in Vancouver. And it’s November. In the last five minutes, we’ve gotten more snow than we did all of last winter. The winter that hundreds of thousands of people from all over the world descended upon the city to watch the 2010 Winter Olympics. The winter that the local ski mountain had to actually import snow in order to have enough to run the events.

A look at the current NBA standings doesn’t help matters. Wasn’t Miami supposed to be a powerhouse this year? As of right now, they’re sitting 6th in the East, barely above .500. In fact, if the playoffs started today, and they were in the West, they’d be a lottery team. Can you imagine if the Heat missed the playoffs?

San Antonio, who many wrote off as a legitimate contender, is the best team in the league. Houston, on the other hand, which some felt was the sleeper of the West, is floundering near the bottom.

Charlotte is a bottom dweller, Milwaukee looks awful and Cleveland is in the 8th spot, just a game and a half behind Miami. What’s even more shocking is that Toronto, who many pundits called the worst team in the league, before the season started, is just below Cleveland in the 9th spot, and have just reeled off four wins in a row. In fact, the Raptors have beaten the top two teams in the East, Orlando and Boston.

And right on cue, Raptor fans are starting to think about the playoffs. Keep in mind, this is the same Raptor fanbase that wanted to dismantle the team after losing to Charlotte at home just two weeks ago. Neck braces are required with the amount of whiplash Raptor fans give.

So what to make of all that is happening?

First, I want to look at a few teams before the Raptors (if all you want to do is read about the Raptors, than I suggest you scroll down a little).

Too much is already written about the Miami Heat, so I won’t go into great detail, but they do show that simply getting talent isn’t enough. You’ve got to get the right talent. While the Heat grabbed, arguably, the three biggest free agents on the market last summer, not one of them compliments each other. And while they were able to retain and sign some role players, they apparently weren’t the right ones. They have possibly the worst starting PG in the entire league and practically invite scoring in the paint. And now with Udonis Haslem out for possibly the year.

Now, I certainly don’t think they will continue to play at this low level for the rest of the season, even with Haslem, who was their best interior defender, possibly out for the season. If they win fewer than 50 games this year, I will be absolutely shocked, despite them being half a game above .500 right now. Still, for Raptor fans, even 50 games would probably give the Raptors a pick in the low 20′s (they got Miami’s first round pick in the sign and trade for Bosh), which would be a lot better than most expected.

And then there’s Philadelphia. With Doug Collins on board, the 2nd pick in the draft and another year’s maturation of the young players, many people thought Philadelphia might be vying for a playoff spot. After watching them lose twice against the Raptors, as well as ten other teams, it’s obvious the only thing they will be vying for is the fewest wins with the Clippers.

The Sixers certainly weren’t good last year (another season in which they didn’t live up to expectations), but injuries caused problems and they did finish with 27 wins. 27 wins would be a ten game improvement over where they are projected to be if they continue at the same pace. So why are they playing so poorly? Believe it or not, I think it has a lot to do with them trading away Samuel Dalembert.

Sure, Dalembert was not a great fit for the team and never lived up to his contract, but for all his faults he was a defensive center who could rebound the ball and defend the middle. Without him, Philly is left with Spencer Hawes, who was supposed to give them more offense, but has given them very little of anything. And Elton Brand is not the intimidator he used to be, so driving the paint, as the Raptors have discovered in two games against them, is relatively easy.

And while Jrue Holiday is putting up pretty good stats, and playing good defense, he’s still struggling mightily trying to figure out how to run a team. He’s the perfect examples of why assist numbers don’t automatically mean a player is a good PG. Holiday is a pretty good player, but he’s still got a while to go before he’s a good PG.

Milwaukee certainly doesn’t have a hole in the middle. Andrew Bogut has recovered nicely from his brutal injury last season and is putting up similar numbers to last season, although scoring fewer points at a lower percentage. In fact, the entire team is having some trouble putting the ball in the hoop at a reasonably high rate. Of the top 4 scorers on the Bucks, only one is shooting above 40%, Carlos Delfino, and he’s not exactly lighting it up at 42%. Milwaukee is currently last in the league in field goal percentage at .409. That’s bad. Historically bad. That’s something that shouldn’t happen with a really good point guard.

I was critical of Brandon Jennings, last season, because I felt that, despite his numbers, his game was still quite flawed. He shot a low percentage, but that didn’t stop him from shooting more than anyone else on the team. If you’re the PG, your job is to get your team the best shots possible, and if you’re taking a lot of bad shots, that’s a good indication that your decision making is a problem. Apparently it still is. He’s taking more than 3 shots a game more than anyone else on the team yet shooting 38%.

On the other end of the spectrum are the Spurs. There was a time, not so long ago, when I would pick them every year to win the Championship every year and be right half of the time. I even picked them last year, after a little hiatus, because I thought the moves they made, like trading for Richard Jefferson, was enough to put them back over the top. I guess I was a year late. No, they still aren’t favourites to win the Championship, not with Kobe and the Lakers still around, but they are looking like a much better team. They are scoring better, Jefferson finally looks like he’s fitting in. They have an excellent front line, anchored by one of the best defensive bigs in the league, and both Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are playing like All-Stars again. Between them they are averaging more than 40 points and 12 assists per game.

And now we come to the Raptors. Before the season began, I predicted the Raptors would win 28 games. They’re currently on pace to win 32 games. So the first question is, why are they playing better than most predicted?

Well, they are scoring at a lower rate with a lower percentage, so obviously the improvement is not on the offensive end. On defense, a quick look shows that they are 19th in opponents scoring per game and near the bottom in defensive field goal percentage. Their defensive rating, however HAS improved, in part because they are rebounding the ball better and, in part, because they are causing more turnovers.

No doubt about it, this Raptor team looks completely different from the one that played last year, even though much the personnel is the same. They are more athletic, run more, despite scoring less, and rebound the ball much better (thanks largely to Reggie Evans). And Jose Calderon is finally looking like the same guy who signed his big contract a couple of years ago. He seems healthy, is playing with confidence and has improved his defense to where it’s almost respectable. Not quite, but close.

And they’re on a four game win streak. Time to start thinking about the playoffs?

At the risk of annoying fans who hate anything written about their beloved Raptors that doesn’t involve rainbows coming out the player’s asses, I have to say that it’s a little early to start planning for playoff tickets.

While the four game win streak was nice, two of the wins came against an inept Philadelphia team that can’t score or defend, one came against a very bad Houston team and the other against a Rondo-less Celtics team. Nothing to sneeze at, especially after the recent Florida trip which got people’s hopes up.

The team is in a precarious position. In order for the team to play like they are, too many things have to go right for them to do it on a consistent basis. First off, Reggie Evans is having a career year. He’s rebounding the ball like no Raptor player has ever done, and his hustle is contagious. Unfortunately, because of his lack of offense, there’s no way in hell he should be starting, and might very well be traded before the trade deadline. He’s starting, however, to make up for the anemic rebounding that Bargnani gives the team. While Bargnani is scoring like a maniac, he’s still deficient on the defensive end of the floor and on the boards, so when he isn’t scoring big, he simply hurts the team. Of the Raptors 6 wins, in only one of them did Bargnani score fewer than 24 points. And that game was against a Cleveland team missing two of it’s best players.

And what happens when Ed Davis returns? Whose minutes does he take? Amir Johnson probably deserves more than the 20 mpg he’s playing now, as long as he can stay on the floor, and while I think Davis will eventually be a very good player, he’s going to take some time. And while I think he should be able to rebound well, he’s not going to do it at a rate similar to Reggie, so rebounds might end up being a problem agains for the Raptors.

And while Calderon looks like he’s turned the corner, DeMar DeRozan is still too inconsistent to be counted on. It’s far, far too early to write him off, especially after what he showed early, but it’s obvious he’s going to take more time. Keep in mind that, despite his struggles, DeRozan is playing much better in his second season than Bargnani did in his second season, so anyone who thinks he should be traded, especially those Bargnani fans who I know have called for it, are ignorant at best and hypocritical at worst.

And while the Raptors have improved their defense, they aren’t exactly holding their opponents to a low shooting percentage. They just happen to often shoot better than them in the games they win. Not a recipe for consistent success.

While it may sound like I’m predicted doom and gloom for the Raptors, the Raptors have proven, even when they lose, to be an entertaining team that works hard. And while the playoffs may seem like a great thought, is it really the right thing for them in the long run? Well, that’s another story….