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Have I Missed Much?
Posted on | August 12, 2010 | 4 Comments
I’ve been around, just busy, and this seemed like a good time to take a bit of a break. Hope everyone’s been having a good summer so far. So what have I missed?
Well, as far as the Raptors are concerned, I haven’t missed too much. There was far too much hullabaloo over a trade for a deep bench player, giving up a 2nd round pick they probably never would have seen anyway. Sure, they could have given the spot to a young player, with more potential, but with four big men under the age of 24, they aren’t hurting for youth, that’s for sure. It certainly doesn’t mean Colangelo is doing anything different than what I hope he does.
The Raptors also lost an assistant coach (Iavaroni), but got a much better one (Carlesimo) with Championship experience, and another good one (Roth). With Triano’s continued development and the addition of Carlesimo and Roth, the coaching staff should be better than last year.
Of course, I woke up this morning to discover that Marco Belinelli has been traded away to New Orleans for Julian Wright. Regular readers know that I am a big fan of Belinelli and I’m sorry to see him go. At best, he’s an excellent 3 point shooter who can handle the ball, get to the line, pass and defend. There were times last year when we saw all of that on display, especially his one and only start. Unfortunately there were also quite a few times when we saw poor shot selection and forcing the action when it wasn’t needed, which meant his minutes weren’t exactly consistent. I recently saw some highlights of a game he played this summer that showed the same off balance shots that drove Raptor fans nuts. While I still think he’s got the tools and potential to be an All-Star in this league, I wonder whether he’ll ever get it.
Still, I understand the move. DeRozan and Weems have solidified their position with the club and in the hearts of Raptor fans by their play in the summer league and their hard work with each other, as well as with Amir Johnson. The “Young Guns” moniker certainly doesn’t hurt their case either. And with Barbosa really an undersized shooting guard, there was a log jam at that position. Belinelli was the odd man out, although from a basketball standpoint, it would have made more sense to move Weems. Weems and DeRozan have similar games and similar weaknesses. Belinelli has the 3 point shooting and ball handling that both those players lack. It’s hard to fault Colangelo for the move, though. Unless, of course, Belinelli becomes an All-Star in New Orleans.
I have to admit, I know very little about Julian Wright except that he is a former lottery pick who is athletic, plays defense and can’t shoot. He should fit in very well with the Young Guns.
I’ll say this about Colangelo. He certainly isn’t shy about changing direction of he feels the need to. If he is successful unloading Calderon, the only Europeans on the roster will be Bargnani and Kleiza. So much for Euroball.
Speaking of unloading Calderon, apparently Charlotte again tried to grab Calderon by involving themselves in the big four team deal that broke the hearts of many a Raptor fan by sending Nick Darren Collison to the Pacers. Not only did it take Collison off the market, but it killed any chance of Indiana trading for Calderon.
The trade is interesting. I think Indiana gets very good value for the expiring contract of Troy Murphy, and clears up their logjam at power forward. New Orleans gets a legit starting small forward who should thrive playing beside Chris Paul. New Jersey gets a year to try out Troy Murphy and gives them depth in the front court. I’m not entirely sold on what Houston gets. They save money and get a nice you shooting guard, but they’re certainly not any better.
A lot of Raptor fans like Houston’s GM, Darryl Morey, but I find him perplexing more than anything. He’s certainly talented at finding low priced talent that can maximize their worth, but he’s never shown any ability to actually build a contender. To me, he seems like a cheap owner’s dream, but not one a fan would choose because he’s never going to build a Champion.
To me, mediocrity is worth than death if I’m a basketball fan. A while ago, a reader of this site said that he’d be happy with a team that simply made it to the second round of the playoffs, but never went to the Finals. That’s just incredibly depressing. Atlanta is a perfect example of this type of team. With their current roster, they’re never, ever going to be a legitimate contender, but when you’re winning 50 games, it’s hard to argue for blowing the team up, and with their bloated payroll, they’re not going to be making any meaningful additions.
Having Joe Johnson walk away this summer might have been the best thing for the franchise in the long term. It would have given them reason to take a step back and rebuild, but by overpaying Johnson, now they pretty much have to keep the roster intact, which means another 50 win season and ouster in either the first or second round.
Atlanta certainly isn’t alone in their race for mediocrity. My beloved Utah seems to have joined the race to the middle. Wes Matthews was a surprise last year as an undrafted free agent and a testament to the abilities of the scouting department. Unfortunately, their accounting department didn’t feel he was worth matching Portland’s offer and let him go. Then they go out and replace Carlos Boozer with Al Jefferson, a guy who is even worse defensively. Jefferson isn’t a bad player, but they really don’t seem to be trying to build a contender in Salt Lake City.
Phoenix is also a member of this club, which pains me when I realize that Steve Nash will never have a chance to win a Championship. Grabbing Turkoglu made very little sense to a team that doesn’t want to overspend, but is willing to spend just enough to win. That’s probably why Steve Kerr left. He realized that winning a Championship wasn’t a goal of owner Robert Sarver.
Of course, I think there are only about five or six owners in the league that are willing to do anything for a Championship. The rest are just banking on luck.
A Rundown, What Not To Do…And My Best Case Scenario
Posted on | July 2, 2010 | 12 Comments
As I figured, none of the big three free agents made any decisions on the first day. There goes the theory that everything was planned weeks ago. Of course, there was some action the first day. The best news for the Raptors is that Amir Johnson re-signed. More on that later.
Joe Johnson was one of the players I thought had the least chance of going back to his home team. Now he’s re-signed with the Hawks, continuing them on their course to high level mediocrity. If anything was apparent during the playoffs, it’s that the Hawks are a team built to compete, not win. The smart thing for them to do would be to make some deals and change the structure of their team. The smart thing is not the likely thing, however. My money is on them thinking a new coach is going to be ails this team.
Memphis, who is apparently hemorrhaging money and didn’t even make the playoffs this past season, gave away the first ridiculous contract of the offseason, signing Rudy Gay to the maximum. Anyone who isn’t sure if Bosh is worth the maximum should agree that Memphis drastically overpaid a guy who has never even made the All-Star team before. Shouldn’t that pretty much be a prerequisite to making the maximum? Sure, I like Gay, but since he was a restricted free agent, couldn’t Memphis simply have waited and seen what he was being offered instead of throwing him everything on the first day of free agency? That probably would have been the smart move. Of course, when has anyone used “smart” and “Chris Wallace” in the same sentence?
Minnesota was also another surprise newsmaker, bidding against no one to offer Darko Milicic a 4 year $20 million contract. Now Darko did a fine job in Minnesota, and they should probably jump on any free agent that actually WANTS to go there, but I would have thought it would have been prudent to wait until after they deal Jefferson to sign Darko. Now it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion the T-Wolves have to make a deal. Not a good position to be in.
Milwaukee re-signed John Salmons, who I figured was on his way out after the acquisitions of Corey Maggette and Chris Douglas-Roberts, and added another jersey to the already full closet of Drew Gooden. Gooden is on his eighth team in 8 years and hasn’t played defense or passed the ball at any of his stops. Is he really worth the full MLE? No wonder Gooden jumped on it. Now I have liked what John Hammonds has been doing in Milwaukee, but neither Maggette nor Gooden have played defense since college, and the Bucks got to where they are on their defense. Adding talent is always nice, but I don’t know if I like where this team is headed.
This brings us back to Amir Johnson. I felt re-signing Amir was very important for the future of the franchise. Before the offseason started, I felt that a 3 year, $15 million contract offer to Amir might be enough to bring him back. Unfortunately, $5 million per season is what the inferior Darko Milicic signed for. Then Milwaukee signed Gooden for nearly $6.5 per season. Now, Gooden certainly is talented, but I think it’s ironic that he signed with the Bucks on the same day Amir re-signed with the Raptors. To me, Amir is exactly the type of player the Bucks need and the type of player that would thrive in their system. Instead, they traded him away and signed Drew Gooden. Personally, I’d much rather have Amir.
So, because of Gooden getting $32 million over 5 years, it was evident that Amir would have to get more than that. Apparently he had interest from Phoenix, Golden State and one other team, so Colangelo had to bid against others. I don’t know if Colangelo had to outbid, or simply match the other teams’ bids, but a 5 year, $34 million contract, while seemingly high for a player who only scores 12.7 ppg in 36 mpg, is probably not bad value. I read one comment that bothered me a little, and that’s that Amir is overpaid because his skills are so easily replaceable. Pat Riley has said that hustle is a skill, and in the NBA, it’s not a common skill. And that’s not even close to all Amir brings. He’s a 23 year old, highly athletic big man who rebounds, defends, hustles and is extremely efficient on the offensive end, despite not being much of a scorer. Basically everything Bargnani is not. Personally, I’d rather pay Amir $34 over 5 years than Bargnani $50 million over 5. While Bargnani is going to get you points, Amir is going to do the little things that actually help a team win.
In other Raptor news, Bosh met with Toronto, but there is apparently little hope among Raptor brass he will re-sign. I’d love to have been in on that meeting. You know what keeps going through my head? The show Entourage. In the middle of season 3 when Vincent Chase has fired his agent, Ari Gold, because of a couple of big screwups. Much like Bosh and the other free agents, Vince goes from agency to agency as they pitch him why he should sign with them. All the pitches end up being the same, including Ari’s, which Vince walks out of. It turns out all Vince wanted Ari to do was apologize. If only that was the case with Bosh. I don’t think a simple apology will be good enough in Colangelo’s.
So with one of the pieces for the summer in place, there are some questions about what it is that Colangelo is trying to do. One of the more disturbing bits of news I heard was that the Raptors had interest in Amare Stoudemire. Excuse me while I gag. The argument seems to be that Amare would be able to replace Bosh, although I’m at a loss of why you’d want to do that. With Bosh, the team missed the playoffs, were a disaster on the defensive end and proved that you need more than just scoring to win.
And now you want to replace Bosh with Amare, apparently believing that will improve the team.
This is the guy who the Laker big men basically humiliated, highlighting just how bad Amare’s defense is. And I won’t even mention how every single Phoenix player has mysteriously regressed upon leaving Steve Nash’s domain.
Chris Bosh leaving is a disappointment, but as the late Phil Hartman once said on the very funny show, NewsRadio, “When life gives you lemons, make lemonade, and then toss it in the face of the person who gave you the lemons until they give you the oranges you asked for in the first place?”
Colangelo needs to realize that retooling is not going to be the way to go. Sure, it will help reassure some of the ticketholders that only see one season ahead, and aren’t worried about the difference between competing and contending. Bringing in Amare, or some other move like it, will certainly make the Raptors more competitive, but it’s not going to make them contenders. They need to rebuild, not retool. One of the reasons I liked the drafting of Ed Davis was because he can be the symbol of the type of team the Raptors need to turn themselves into. He’s a smart, defensive player who does all the little things that you need to do to win. He’s San Antonio, not Phoenix. I don’t know about you, but I want San Antonio. San Antonio won three Championships and was one of the most dominant teams in the last ten years. Phoenix entertained and did well in the regular season, but never made it to the Finals.
Colangelo needs to rid the team of the lazy, underachieving players and focus on getting young, talented and hard working players that don’t mind doing the dirty work.
Speaking of which, I’ve decided to share what I hope are the types of deals I hope go down this summer. They’re certainly best case, but if all the stars align, these are the types of deals I’d like to see happen…
1. Bosh is sign-and-traded to the Nets for Derrick Favors and a $12 million trade exception.
2. Bargnani is traded to Minnesota for Ricky Rubio and Corey Brewer and a trade exception.
3. The Knicks, after striking out on the free agent front, agrees to trade for Turkoglu in exchange for Eddy Curry and his expiring contract. Eddy Curry is then bought out.
4. Trade Corey Brewer and part of the trade exception to Houston for the expiring contracts of Shane Battier and Jared Jeffries.
The Raptors go into the season with…
Jose Calderon (Jarret Jack, Marcus Banks)
DeMar DeRozan (Sonny Weems, Marco Belinelli)
Shane Battier (Jared Jeffries)
Derrick Favors (Ed Davis, Reggie Evans)
Amir Johnson (Solomon Alabi)
The team is most likely not a playoff team, but have the right type of players on the team, a few good, smart veterans, a very young core, the likelihood of a high lottery pick next season and a franchise point guard, in Rubio, on his way. If the team looks even remotely like that next year, I’ll be happy with how the offseason transpired.
Looking Into The Mind Of Chris Bosh
Posted on | April 27, 2010 | 10 Comments
As I detailed in my last post, I think there’s still a chance Bosh will re-sign with Toronto. If he does decide to go, nearly a third of the league will be under the salary cap this summer. That’s astounding. I don’t think that’s ever happened before. Of course, just because you’re under the cap, doesn’t mean you’re going to have a shot at Bosh. I don’t see a team like Minnesota high on Bosh’s list. I also can’t see Washington being a likely destination. And then there are teams that have cap room, but simply don’t need a power forward like Bosh (Clippers). A team doesn’t necessarily have to have cap room to compete for Bosh, though. If someone like Houston has the right pieces, they could put together a sign-and-trade deal that could bring Bosh. All in all, I see 8 teams, other than Toronto, as having a shot at having Bosh on their roster next season.
NEW YORK:
Pluses: They play at the Mecca of basketball in one of the most exciting and cosmopolitan cities in the world. They have more cap room than anyone else and could sign two max players. They have some nice young talent in Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Toney Douglas and a player friendly coach with a proven track record and the desire have his players run.
Minuses: They only won 29 games last year and might have been lucky to win that many. While they do have a few nice young players, they have very little talent signed for next season, and only Gallinari looks like he has star potential. They don’t play defense and have a coach that has never shown a desire to focus on it. While they can sign two max players, it’s unlikely that any of the top players would want to go there alone, because there’s simply not enough talent, which means it might be all or nothing. They have no center and no defensive oriented big man on the roster.
Summary: I don’t see it happening. Bosh has repeatedly stated he doesn’t want to be anyone’s second banana, so either he goes to New York alone, and they sign a couple of lesser players, or he signs elsewhere. After struggling for so long in Toronto, the thought of going to a team without a lot of proven talent, I think, would be unappealing. Quite frankly, I don’t see New York in Bosh’s future, nor should it be.
NEW JERSEY:
Pluses: New Jersey has lots of cap room, one of the best young centers in the NBA, and a former All-Star at PG who’s still in his prime. And they’ll have a top four pick in the draft, with a chance at getting one of the best PG prospects to come out in a long time. They have a new owner with deep pockets, a highly respected GM who knows how to build a winning team, and they will be moving to Brooklyn and into a brand new arena in two years.
Minuses: Outside of Harris and Lopez, they are weak in the talent department, and won a league low 12 games. They have no coach and they still have two years as a lame duck team in New Jersey where no one goes to see them, no matter how they are doing.
Summary: New Jersey would be a bit of a gamble, but might end up paying off big. Bosh has never played with a center as good as Lopez, and would benefit greatly from it. If the Nets get John Wall, their future will be very, very bright, and Bosh would be the leader on this team. It’s not mentioned as a likely destination, and probably isn’t, but, in my opinion, it should be.
MIAMI:
Pluses: Dwayne Wade, cap room, Pat Riley and a excellent young coach in Erik Spoelstra. Oh, and it’s warm all year round and there are no state taxes.
Minuses: While the Heat did make the playoffs and win 47 games, the talent outside of Wade is shockingly mediocre. To make matters worse, if they add Bosh, they won’t have any more money to spend on getting more talent. If Wade were to go down (again), the Heat would be a lottery team, even with Bosh. On top of that, Bosh would be overshadowed by Wade.
Summary: On the surface, the Heat have a lot in their corner, but there are far too many unappealing aspects of this choice. It’s not a choice I would choose for him, and not one I think he’d make for himself.
CHICAGO:
Pluses: They have one of the best young PGs in the league, an excellent defensive and rebounding young center, a very good small forward and enough cap room that they can sign him outright, but enough pieces they can do a sign and trade and not lose much. Chicago is also the third biggest city in the NBA. Adding Bosh would immediately make them a contender and he’d be the top player there, even with Rose.
Minuses: The coach is likely gone and the front office has had problems, including making some poor deals. They’re a poor three point shooting team, which might make it more difficult for Bosh to score than he has been used to.
Summary: Possibly one of the best fits for Bosh. They lack a post presence and number one scoring option, which is what Bosh brings. Having Noah will ease Bosh’s load on defense and on the boards, and he’ll love playing with Rose. They could even do a sign and trade with Bosh and sign Joe Johnson, which would make them devastatingly good.
OKLAHOMA CITY:
Pluses: The best young team in the NBA. They’re a 50 win team right now (in the West), with good players on and off the court, and one of the best GMs in the league. The one thing they lack the most, inside scoring, is what Bosh brings. Durant is poised to be one of the top players in the league.
Minuses: With Durant, he won’t be the number one option or the best player on the team, which is what he says he wants. Oklahoma City is not the type of city Bosh apparently likes.
Summary: There are real questions whether the Thunder would even want to spend all that money on Bosh, when they still will have to re-sign all their good young talent, including Durant. They’re a good team without him and adding such a big piece might upset the balance. What they need more is a defensive oriented center, which Bosh is not. Although it’s probably Bosh’s best chance at success, and long term success, the fact that he wouldn’t be the main man and that it’s not a bustling cosmopolitan city probably kills any chance of him heading there.
HOUSTON:
Pluses: They’re already a pretty talented, gritty, defensive oriented team, some nice talent, a well respected coach and a new age GM. Texas is his home state and Houston is a major city.
Minuses: While Houston did surprisingly better than most anticipated with injuries to the two best players, the team has a lot of question marks. Are there going to be any shots available with a backcourt of Brooks and Martin (who sound like a comedy duo) taking 30 shots a game between them? What’s going to happen when Yao Ming returns, and is he ever going to return at full strength? And though Daryl Morey has been the GM of the moment, with his new way of looking at stats, he’s made some perplexing deals. Signing Trevor Ariza when they already had Shane Battier, who plays the same position and does basically the same thing, was strange. As was trading McGrady’s expiring contract for Kevin Martin, a man who’s known as a great scorer, but has been called one of the worst defenders in the league numerous times. And he’s constantly injured.
Summary: Houston has been mentioned a fair bit, especially by Raptor fans, and it’s certainly a possibility. Trevor Ariza was convinced to take less money to play there, so nothing’s out of the question, but I really don’t see it being a good fit for Bosh. The rather eclectic roster, murky future and questionable personnel moves should turn Bosh off in the end, I think. Plus, they have no cap room and would have to do a sign-and-trade. Looking at their roster, there’s really not all that much to offer that would match salaries.
LAKERS:
Pluses: It’s L.A., baby! One of the most storied franchises in NBA history and in a city made for someone like Bosh. It’s Bosh’s best way to win a Championship and he’d have one of the best coaches in the history of the game. While it may seem like a minus having Kobe, since Bosh wants to be the top dog, Kobe is 32 and is looking older and older. He’s played more than 40,000 minutes in the NBA, which has taken its toll. Bosh could represent the Laker’s future and be seen as a saviour.
Minuses: While Kobe is getting older, he’s still going to be the best player on the team for the next couple of years. The core certainly isn’t young and there is a danger of Bosh playing his best years while the Lakers are rebuilding. And his stats are sure to suffer with fewer shots to go around before that happens.
Summary: The Lakers seem like a perfect destination, especially if they were willing to trade Bynum and Vujacic, for the media loving Bosh, especially with his friendship with Kobe, but by the time the Lakers are his team, they very well might not be a contender. He might not be seen as earning a Championship if he won it with the Lakers, but rather riding their coattails. It will certainly be an attractive destination, but in the end, probably not the one that is best for him.
SAN ANTONIO:
Pluses: Very similar to the Laker’s situation, except it’s not L.A. The situation, however, might seem a little more attractive because of the Spur’s sterling reputation as a franchise. R.C. Buford might simply be the best GM in the league. He rarely makes mistakes, is unparalleled at spotting talent and has a symbiotic relationship with Popovich. Duncan might be ready to take the same position David Robinson did when he came into the league. It’s in Texas.
Minuses: San Antonio, while in Texas, is no bustling metropolis. Like L.A, the Spurs best players are getting older and people have been predicting their drop off for years. Buford is a great franchise builder, but if Duncan and Ginobili start showing their age quickly, it might take a while for the Spurs to recover.
Summary: San Antonio may not want Bosh as a replacement for Duncan, since Bosh doesn’t bring the defense Duncan does. If they do, they have the pieces to do a sign and trade for him. Jefferson and McDyess might get it done, but if the Spurs want to replace Parker with George Hill, he might be available if something else was thrown in. In the end, though, I think Bosh is better off going to a younger team where his future is a little clearer.
TORONTO:
Pluses: It’s the city he knows and likes, he can earn the most money here and he knows that Colangelo is willing to build around him.
Minuses: Uh, have you watched the last couple of seasons?
Summary: While most US media pundits would bet everything against it, probably because they don’t understand why an American would choose live in Canada, Toronto still has a shot. They can offer the most money, he knows the city and the organization and the home team usually has the best chance of re-signing. Bosh has had 7 years in Toronto and has never made it to the second round. That could either be a challenge or reason to leave. Personally, I don’t know which it will be.
VERDICT:
Bosh will have a lot of options, but the best one, quite frankly, is Chicago. He gets to go to an already talented team, so won’t have the danger of having to suffer through more rebuilding, it’s a big city, which he likes, and he’d be the man, which is also important to him. Rose is a great player, but at this point, wouldn’t be overshadowed by Bosh. The idea of turning a team into a contender should be extremely appealing to him. While Paxson and company has not proven to be great at building a contender, the talent is already there. A core of Bosh, Rose and Noah is scary. It’s young and extremely talented, and they compliment each other well. In the end, I think it will come down to Toronto and Chicago. Who wins, is anyone’s guess.
—————–
On a side note, someone on Raptors Republic suggested a sign-and-trade for Bosh to San Antonio. Bosh and Calderon for Parker, Jefferson and Blair. The trade is not as noteworthy as some of the reaction. Some people actually had the gall to complain about a trade that would pretty much give the Raptors the best team in the history of the franchise. This trade would improve their defense, rebounding, scoring and playoff experience, as well as give them a former Finals MVP who’s still in his prime. I can see that team possibly making it to the second round of the playoffs. And people were complaining about it. I get the feeling that if Bosh does leave in a sign and trade, some people are going to be awfully disappointed with what the Raptors get back.
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