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The Trading Post
Posted on | February 16, 2010 | 1 Comment
When I worked at EA Sports a number of years ago, I was involved heavily in `Franchise Mode’. It was a natural fit for me and I loved it. Though gameplay was fun, it was managing the roster that I found the most fun. Making trades, drafting etc. What the game never achieved, however, was the hype surrounding this time of year in the NBA. I know I should probably take Doug Smith’s tact and hate this time of year because it’s not about the game, and involves innuendo and rumours, the bane of his existence, but I can’t help it. It’s fun.
Yes, it can be fun for the fan, but for the players it must be torture. Imagine you’re busy going about your job when you keep hearing your name popping up in rumoured transfers to other branches in different cities. It must be difficult.
So with all due respect to the players, this post is dedicated to discussing every rumoured deal, and maybe proposing a new one or two. There are simply too many deals to discuss every single one, so I’ll focus on a few that seem to have legs. First off, though, I’m going to look at Toronto’s situation.
TORONTO
For the first time in a while, the Raptors are virtually a non-entity on the trade rumour mill. It’s a good sign. Making a deal might end up backfiring for the Raptors, unless it seriously upgrades their talent level. Still, there are a couple of moves they could make that might improve them.
Andre Igoudala for Demar DeRozan, Amir Johnson and Marcus Banks
In an earlier post, I proposed including Calderon in a trade for Iguodala, in this one, he’s not included, but Philly gets more salary relief. Banks’ contract isn’t great, but it’s 3 years less than Iguodala’s. Including Amir gives them another young prospect, as well as an expiring contract. Obviously Iguodala would be a great fit for the Raptors, and might be enough to entice Bosh to re-sign.
Andris Biedrins for Amir Johnson and Marcus Banks
While Amir Johnson is having a great season for the Raptors, and fills a need, the fact that he’s a free agent this summer makes it a real possibility he won’t be back. Why not use his expiring contract to try and get something in return. Biedrins is underutilized in Golden State and overpaid, but his rebounding, shot blocking and mobility would be a great replacement for Johnson, and the fact that he’s got a long term contract means that he’ll be around for a while. The biggest plus, though, would be that he would be a better insurance policy for Bosh than Johnson.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Antawn Jamison for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Antawn Jamison is the perfect PF on the market to play with LeBron. He can score outside and inside, and would more than likely get them to the Finals. On the downside, he’s 33, so you’ve got to question how much longer he can play at such a high level. With LeBron not even being 25, the best way to keep him around is to surround him with guys who will be around for a while. Of course, Washington apparently doesn’t want to deal with Cleveland because of the history between them.
Amare Soudemire for J.J. Hickson, Z. Ilguaskas and Jamario Moon (or someone like him)
This would be the trade that would bring the best player, and since he’s indicated he won’t opt out, he’ll probably be with the team for at least another season and would be a huge enticement for LeBron to re-sign. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’s a good fit, and I think he might not like to be LeBron’s second fiddle. On the court, the Cavs currently have LeBron and Shaq to play inside, and I don’t see there being much room down there. Add Stoudamire, and if these guys don’t bump into each other, I’d be surprised. There are also conflicting reports that he my not want to be traded to Cleveland.
Phoenix would be getting Hickson, who is a talented, young big man, as well as Iguaskas’ expiring contract. If I was Phoenix, I’d keep looking.
Troy Murphy for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Troy Murphy might be the best PF for the Cavs to trade for. He’s younger than Jamison and a better outside shooter than Stoudemire. Plus he’s a better rebounder than either of them. I also think he might be cheaper to trade for. He’s the least sexy option, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this is who they end up getting.
A salary dump for Indiana, plus they get a good young prospect in Hickson. This might be the best deal out there and the best chance to rid themselves of Murphy’s contract. On the plus side, it opens up playing time for rookie Tyler Hansbridge.
Corey Maggette and Raja Bell for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Now, I haven’t actually heard Bell’s name in any proposed deal, but it works and makes sense. Maggette is having possibly his best year as a pro, and he’s probably more what Cleveland needs. He’s that second scorer that Mo Williams and Shaq simply aren’t. With both him and LeBron on the floor together, opposing teams couldn’t have a weak defender defending Maggette, as they can with Parker. If I was Cleveland, this might be my first choice of the rumoured deals.
Another salary dump, and considering that no one wanted to touch Maggette a year ago, getting Hickson might be a huge bonus. Golden State has too many wing players, too many scorers and not enough healthy PFs. This is a no brainer, in my opinion.
Now, I have only heard Stoudemire’s name, and no one from Miami, so this is purely conjecture. It would completely kill any cap room they would have this summer, but the question is, would they be able to get anyone better than these two? A lineup of Amare, Beasley, Richardson (either Jason or Quentin) and Wade would be pretty offensively potent. The rim would certainly get a workout. I don’t know how good they’d be defensively, though. Possibly even worse than the Raptors.
The latest rumour is that Miami is looking for a third team to trade with, which makes sense, because I don’t see the above trade going down. Despite their desire for Stoudemire, the only thing they really have of any value they are apparently willing to trade is O’Neal and his expiring contract. I’d be surprised if Amare lands in Miami because apart from the above deal, where they get rid of all but Nash’s big contract, there’s nothing Miami has that the Suns would want.
Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert for Tracy McGrady
I don’t know who’s reluctant to make this deal, but it had better be Philadelphia. I know Houston would be taking back salary, and Dalembert would have to move to the bench when Yao returned, but how could you not do this deal? Adding Iguodala to Ariza and Battier would be potent, and having Dalembert would allow Yao to play limited minutes, possibly extending his career. Quite frankly, I think Philadelphia might be looking for a little more than McGrady for Iguodala, and so they should.
Jordan Hill, Jarred Jeffries and Larry Hughes for Tracy McGrady
This is the latest rumour and it makes a little more sense for both teams. Houston gets New Yorks 2009 lottery pick, Jordan Hill and Hughes’ expiring contract, so they still save money. New York gets more cap space and can try McGrady out for a couple of months. If I was Houston, though, I’d ask for a draft pick as well.
Marcus Camby for Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake
Injuries have really hurt Portland’s chances this year, and this trade highlights just how much. Outlaw and Blake are valuable, but they’re free agents this summer, and might not want to re-sign onto Portland’s loaded roster. Camby gives them a real center so they can remain competitive the rest of the season. The Clippers get a good backup for the rest of the season and maybe re-sign outlaw, who could end up starting for the Clippers, when healthy. Really, it’s a short term deal for both, but Portland has the chance to benefit the most. If I were the Clippers, I’d try and get more for Camby and his expiring contract.
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Those are the main rumoured trades around the league, at least ones that I see even remotely happening. Here are a few that I think make sense, but I haven’t heard mentioned.
Mike Miller and Fabricio Oberto for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
This is one I haven’t heard, and considering Washington’s feelings about dealing with Cleveland, probably wouldn’t happen. It is probably the best deal Cleveland could do, however. Miller is the outside shooter and scoring threat the Cavs need at the wing position, and while Oberto’s best days are behind him, and hasn’t been playing much in Washington, he’s got playoff experience with the Spurs, which looks good on anyone’s resume. Besides, he’d only be needed to play a few minutes here and there.
Mike Miller was traded for when it looked like the Wizards might be a playoff team. They are not. Getting Hickson would be a plus. In the end, it’s a low risk deal that makes sense for both teams.
Kirk Hinrich and Jannero Pargo for Sacha Vujacic, Adam Morrison and Jordan Farmar
The Bulls want to clear more cap room to try and get a big free agent, and the Lakers weakest position is PG. Hinrich is made for the triangle offense and would become their best PG. He doesn’t need to handle the ball to be effective but is a better passer than any of the present Laker PGs, is a very good defender and has lots of playoff experience. The Bulls clear cap room, but also get a couple of nice, young bench players.
Amare Stoudemire for Tyrus Thomas and Brad Miller
I know the Bulls are hoping for Wade to sign, but that’s unlikely, and what they need more than anything is an inside scorer. They discussed trading for Amare last season, but nothing happened. He’s now healthy and would give the Bulls another scorer, which they have lacked. Tyrus Thomas has struggled in his time in Chicago, but he’s not made for that kind of ball. If anyone would benefit from playing with Nash, Thomas would. If the Suns do trade Amare, I think Thomas is the best prospect they could get for him. Miller’s expiring contract means it’s basically Amare for Thomas, which, considering the circumstances makes sense.
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Now, although Orlando has not really been mentioned in any trade talk, I think they need to make some sort of deal. The only reason they beat Cleveland last year is because they matched up well against them, but this year that isn’t so. Trading for Vince hasn’t worked out as well as they hoped, and could use a creative wing player who can do what Turkoglu did, which be the initiator. The player who would be absolutely perfect would have been Iguodala, but Orlando has absolutely no pieces that Philadelphia would want. That might mean bringing a third team into it, but I can’t see who.
Boston’s window is closing, if it isn’t already closed. Danny Ainge has to figure out if the team is still a contender, and may want to use Ray Allen’s expiring contract to get younger.
Minnesota is apparently interested in Tyrus Thomas, but I don’t know who they want to send back in return. The question is, why on earth would they want Thomas? Thinking about it, though, it makes perfect sense. They drafted two starting PGs in the last draft, so might as well deal for another PF when their two best players are PFs. They’re very big on redundancy in Minnesota, and if the GM continues to make moves that don’t quite make sense, he’s going to find himself redundant.
So About This Colangelo Fellow…
Posted on | February 8, 2010 | 8 Comments
There’s been some discussion about this topic on Raptorblog.com and Raptor Republic, as well as in the comments on this blog. Raptor Blog’s Scott Carefoot discussed on his blog about how MLSE has indicated that they will pick up the option on Bryan Colangelo’s contract for next season.
Not exactly a glowing endorsement, but an endorsement nonetheless.
Ironically, on Raptors Republic Altraps posed this question:
Meanwhile, a rather rude reader of this blog argued (badly) that Colangelo has screwed up from day one and has driven the Raptors team into the ground. He, no doubt, is a proponent of firing Colangelo.
Obviously there are some differing opinions on how Colangelo has done so far during his tenure of the Raptors. Anyone who hasn’t read my Colangelo retrospective, might want to look through it if you’ve got (a lot of) time.
Firstly, let’s get this out of the way. I’m very happy that Colangelo is going to get his contract extended, although not really surprised. The four year period that Colangelo has been in charge of the franchise is the most successful four year period in it’s history. Okay. Faint praise for a team that has seen little on-court success, but it’s not nothing.
Keep in mind, I liked the hiring of Colangelo, but was well aware of the fact that, despite his success, he’s never built a team that has reached the Finals. The Phoenix Suns were a great team, but defense was not their strong suit, and teams that don’t play great defense don’t tend to win Championships.
One question that is often ask is, does Colangelo understand the importance of defense?
Well, it might you to discover that Colangelo likes defensive players a lot more than people seem to think. One just has to look at the first team that Colangelo built when he came to town. Colangelo first traded for Nesterovic, a center who played above average positional defense and had played on the NBA Champion Spurs, a team known for their defense. He then signed two veterans from Europe who stabilized the starting unit’s defense by playing above average defense. The team that ended up winning 47 games and winning the Atlantic Division, did so by playing above average defense.
Two of Colangelo’s biggest trades over the next couple of years were acquiring Jermaine O’Neal, a fierce low post defender and good shot blocker, and then trading him for Shawn Marion, an athletic rebounder with a reputation as a very tough defender.
Of course Colangelo’s been criticized for his signing of Turkoglu, a player who many feel, is somewhat lacking defensively. Those people don’t seem to realize that, of the eight players that Colangelo brought in this past summer, six are above average defenders and DeRozan certainly has the ability to be. The player that has gotten the most flak on the defensive end, Calderon, was on the roster before Colangelo even took over.
Okay, so maybe Colangelo understands the importance of defense a little more than it appears, but if Bosh ends up leaving this summer, will it be Colangelo’s fault?
Well, first of all, I think it’s rather a silly question. If Bosh leaves, there will no doubt be a multitude of reasons, none of which may have anything to do with Colangelo. Of course, if Bosh leaves for nothing, instead of through a sign and trade, can we blame Colangelo for either not surrounding Bosh with the right players, or not getting something for Bosh when he had a chance (like before the trading deadline)?
Whether you like the makeup of the Raptors, you have to admit that there’s a lot of young talent on this team. Without their franchise players, I like the future of the Raptors far more than I like the future of Cleveland or Miami. If nothing else, Colangelo has acquired a collection of players whose value will only go up. Now, keep this information in mind for later.
Some feel that Colangelo should trade Bosh right now, or risk losing him for nothing, even though they would really only get 60 cents on the dollar for him. Well, a GM who trades a player for less than he’s worth because they are afraid he MIGHT not re-sign will never, ever be a successful GM. Good GMs takes risks because they know that’s the only way to win.
Jerry West traded away a top 10 center in his prime (Vlade Divac), without any guarantee that he could sign Shaquille O’Neal away from Orlando. And he traded him for a 16th pick. Can you imagine if Colangelo had traded away Bargnani for the 16th pick? Even I would have said he was nuts. Of course that pick ended up being Kobe Bryant and Shaq DID end up signing with the Lakers.
So, maybe you don’t like the direction that Colangelo has talent the team and feel that if Bosh leaves, that’s why. If you want Colangelo fired, who exactly do you replace him with. Obviously, as Scott Carefoot so aptly pointed out, none of the leagues top GMs are going to be leaving their post to come to Toronto, so you have to look elsewhere.
It’s been pointed out by many that Toronto should try and hire an executive from a franchise like San Antonio. It worked for Oklahoma City, didn’t it? Okay, great, but there are two problems with this idea. The first is that I would think San Antonio has pretty much been picked clean by the rest of the league since there are already several GMs who have come to their posts via San Antonio. The second problem is that just because someone worked under a great GM, doesn’t actually make them a great GM. It’s just not logical, and if I really have to explain it, you’re probably in the wrong place.
Of course there’s someone like Houston’s Daryl Morey, who is the flavour of the month and a trailblazer for the statistical-based analysis of players that is becoming so popular. Morey has built a team that, without it’s two injured stars, has competed with a roster made up of modestly priced hustle players.
There are several problems with trying to hire the next Daryl Morey, the least of which is finding out who it is, and luring him to Toronto. First, Morey has done nothing yet. Since taking over, the Rockets have lost in the first round once and in the second round the next season. This year, they’re in real danger of missing the playoffs altogether. People like to point out that Colangelo has never won a Championship, well Morey has never even gotten his team to the Conference Finals. Also, while Morey was able to pluck Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry late in the draft, he traded away Nicolas Batum, and traded away the pick that would become Omri Casspi, who could end up making the All-Rookie first team. Needless to say, he’s not perfect.
No, Morey is not perfect, but neither is any other GM. It wasn’t so long ago that Joe Dumars was the toast of the NBA town and touted as one of the top in the league. Today, he’s looking at a lottery team that won’t be under the cap until 2011, and his two big free agent signings were pretty much disasters, at least in helping the team get back to it’s winning ways. Plus, more people are remembering how he bypassed Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade to draft Darko Milicic.
Geoff Petrie was probably the GM most looked up to when Sacramento was battling the Lakers back around the turn of the century. Then, as they faltered, Petrie’s reputation became tarnished. A few bad moves and Sacramento was back to where they had been for so long before Petrie took over. Only recently has his star been back on the rise.
Then there’s the case of Danny Ainge. Yes, the same Danny Ainge who is revered for bringing the Championship ways back to Boston. But it’s also the same Danny Ainge who was reviled for so many years for bad drafts, bad trades and bad signings (Brian Scalabrine, anyone?). Only by somehow pulling a rabbit out of a hat and grabbing both Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett in trades, was he able to save his reputation. What Aigne is being lauded for now, is collecting a bunch of young, talented players he could use as pieces to get exactly what he wanted, which was Allen and Garnett. Sound familiar?
See, the funny thing about the life of a GM is that success is fleeting and your star can fall as quickly as it can rise. One trade can cement a reputation or kill it. The fact is, that Bryan Colangelo, despite his faults, is one of the better GMs in the league, and it’s also a fact that he’s given the Raptors the chance to be more successful than they ever have been.
In the end, that’s all that matters.
[Coming up this week, I'm going to look back at the predictions I made before the season, and see how I've done.]
The Only Indispensable Raptor (and other stories)
Posted on | February 1, 2010 | 12 Comments
[Update: I've added a poll for the blog, and the first one is at the bottom]
There’s a line of thought among some Raptor fans that Chris Bosh is not worth the maximum contract, and that the Raptors should let him go (either via trade or sign-and-trade) and build around Bargnani and the rest of the Raptors. To put it mildly, these people are morons who have no business watching an NBA game let alone sharing their opinions on one. Okay, maybe that’s not putting it mildly.
When Turkoglu got an elbow to the face, two thoughts came to mind. The first is that I really feel for Turkoglu because I know how it feels. I once got a shoulder hit just below my eye that felt like it completely collapsed my face. I’ve been hit (and hurt) many times and kept playing, but this was different and knew it. I first checked to see if all my teeth were intact (I’ve lost a tooth playing ball before), and then checked my nose to make sure it was still where it was supposed to be. Stupidly, I did go back in when I discovered my face still intact, despite the fact I was seeing double (slightly). The most shocking thing was when I finally looked in the mirror and saw that my face looked, for the most part, normal. I had expected a look similar to Rocky after fighting Apollo Creed the first time. There was a little swelling, but no bruising at all.
It turned out I had fractured my orbit bone and it was more than six months before I got most of the feeling back in my face and to this day, I don’t have all of it back (it’s been nearly two years). The worst part about having no feeling in part of your face is showering. Since you can’t actually feel the water on you, you can’t tell if you haven’t washed the soap off. It was very odd and not the least bit pleasant.
But I digress.
The second thing I thought about was how the Raptors won’t necessarily miss Turkoglu if he doesn’t come back in the game. The great thing about this Raptors team, as I’ve mentioned before, is the bench. Unlike last season, when an injury to any of the key players was devastating, this year there’s only one player who is irreplaceable. And that’s Chris Bosh. When Turkoglu went out, I knew that between Wright, Weems and Belinelli, the Raptors would be able to absorb his loss. Obviously those same players make DeRozan’s absence not even missed, and Jack and Calderon can both start, which makes an injury to one of them a non-issue, especially when Banks played so well during Calderon’s missed games, and Belinelli is a capable enough ball handler and passer that he can play the point in a pinch. Even Bargnani can be replaced by Nesterovic and Johnson. They don’t have Bargnani’s scoring touch, but are better rebounders and play well alongside Bosh.
Bosh, however, cannot be lost for long without the team going into a tailspin. You see, Bosh is the only consistent scorer and rebounder the Raptors have. Bargnani can have great scoring bursts and is the second leading scorer on the team, but he’s too inconsistent to be relied on as the team’s first option. He relies too much on people creating for him and doesn’t get to the line enough. And he’s the second best scorer. Nine times he has not scored more than 12 points in a game. Compare that with Bosh’s 2. And one of those two, Bosh only played 15 minutes.
And it can’t be written off to Bosh taking more shots than Bargnani because Bosh only takes two more shots a game. Besides, a lot of times, good players make their own shots. Bosh gets two more shots than Bargnani because he gets himself the shot. Bargnani, for all his talent, doesn’t do that, which is why he goes through so many scoring droughts.
And, needless to say, Bargnani is not going to be able to cover Bosh’s rebounding. The only two player on the roster who can consistently rebound at a rate similar to Bosh (Evans and Johnson) are both foul prone and don’t bring the scoring the Raptors would need if they lost Bosh.
The Raptors can go small to score more, with Turkoglu shifting to PF, but they’d suffer on the boards. If they insert Johnson or Evans into the PF slot, they suffer in the scoring department.
Let’s hope Bosh re-signs, because if he leaves, the Raptors will be in trouble.
SOARING RAPTORS
In ESPN’s recent Power Rankings, the Raptors are ranked #7. Okay, Mark Stein is one of the few American sports writers who is actually unbiased when it comes to things north of the border, but it’s still a great indication of how far the Raptors have come since their slow start in November.
Can I point out something I probably shouldn’t? The Raptors are only 4 1/2 games behind a struggling Celtics team that has gone 6-11 since winning against Orlando on Christmas day. And speaking of the Celtics, I’ve been suspicious of Garnet’s knee injury from day one. I didn’t like how little the Celtics said, even as the Celtics went into the second round. I didn’t like that little was revealed over the summer about exactly what was wrong with his knee, and I didn’t like how he looked at the start of the season. Sure, he’s had a few big games, but when a player limps, it’s a bad, bad thing. It means two things. One is that he’s not fully healed, and the other is that he’ll probably have problems due to favouring the other leg. Well, it’s already past the halfway point and he’s still having problems with the knee. I think they may be in trouble.
DIVISIONAL RACES
While the race in the east is for the 2nd spot among the contenders (as long as Cleveland doesn’t falter without Mo Williams), and the 5th spot among the pretenders (of which the Raptors are included), in the West, the big race is to see who’s going to make it to the big dance. Currently, there are 6 teams within 2 games of one another, and only 3 of them are going to make the playoffs. Right now, Oklahoma City, Memphis, and Houston are on the outside looking in, but no one would be surprised if all three make the playoffs. Portland is in danger of not making the playoffs, and New Orleans will certainly drop without Chris Paul for a month or two (due to knee surgery). I’m going to guess that at least a couple of those six teams are going to try and make a deal to better their chance.
TRADES
What on earth is this nonsense about Philly thinking of trading Igoudala. Is he really the problem on this team? And trading him for McGrady? What good would that do? Think they regret letting Andre Miller go? Okay, maybe they don’t, but they should. Personally, Igoudala should be one of the last players they should trade.
If they are intent on trading Igoudala, something crossed my mind. Now as regular readers know, I’m not for trading Calderon, but if Philadelphia offered Igoudala for Calderon, DeRozan and Wright, I’d think long and hard. DeRozan has a lot of potential, but realistically, you’ve got to hope that he’ll be as good as Igoudala. Calderon’s playmaking will be missed, but as I stated above, he’s not indispensable. The addition of Igoudala would give the Raptors an incredible starting five, a top defender, another playmaker and a very good scorer in Igoudala. He’d also immediately become the Raptors second leading rebounder.
The Sixers would get their point guard, and DeRozan would be a prospect that could eventually replace Igoudala.
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