TORONTO: Exceeds Expectations

5. Jonas Valanciunas

It’s deja vu all over again. Last year, a team above them unexpectedly took an athletic defensive power forward which resulted in a higher ranked big man unexpectedly falling to the Raptors. Colangelo and the Raptors brass probably can’t believe their luck. I was afraid they might still take Knight, but Colangelo showed he is indeed focused on the future, rather than the present.

Valanciunas will fill the void at center the Raptors have been lacking for, well, ever. While apparently a lot of Raptor fans are unhappy with the pick, I think they’ll eventually regret that as Valanciunas is the type of player that Raptor fans love. He’s a high energy player who hustles, defends and rebounds. English, though, is not his strong suit.

On the other hand, the pick they got from the Heat, which they traded to the Bulls for James Johnson, could have been used to pick Corey Joseph at 28, who went one spot later to the Spurs. Who knows if that’s who Colangelo would have picked, as he was projected to go in the second round, but I’ll certainly be comparing their careers. And since the Spurs are pretty much never wrong…

I would have liked to see them try and scoop up another pick, but it’s not a big deal that they didn’t.

SAN ANTONIO: Exceeds Expectations

29. Cory Joseph

Traded George Hill for Indiana’s 15th pick, Kawhi Leonard.

I assumed the Spurs would exceed expectations, and again they have. Trading for Leonard is huge, especially since he was projected to go in the top ten and dropped. He’s the type of defender than the Spurs love, is in the perfect situation, and should step in Bruce Bowen’s shoes, that have been empty for a few years.

If on of my sleepers, Toronto’s Cory Joseph couldn’t get drafted by the Raptors, then the Spurs would have been my second choice. And it’s incredible timing because they might have their replacement for Hill. Yes, he projected to go in the second round, but I think he has first round talent and so, apparently, do the Spurs.haunt them. Burks should be a decent player, but guys like him are a dime a dozen.

CHARLOTTE: Exceeds Expectations

7. Bismack Biyombo
9. Kemba Walker

Traded Stephen Jackson for Sacramento’s 7th pick and Corey Maggette.

Sold 39th pick, Jeremy Tyler to Golden State, I’m guessing for cash.

It hurts to say it, but Charlotte actually did well. I was surprised that they passed on Knight for Biyombo, as they’ve been looking for a real starting PG for, well, their entire existence, but they resisted temptation and went with a guy who I think will be better down the road. I also look forward to watching Biyombo and Tyrus Thomas being on the floor at the same time. The front row needs to watch out.

Maggette was a disaster in Milwaukee and now brings his brand of scoring and no defense to Charlotte. He’s probably going to lose games for them, but that’s kind of what they wanted, so maybe it’s a good thing?

Walker fell, but not as far as I thought he might. I think it’s still a pretty good pick at 9, but Charlotte seems to like picking decent PGs with little upside.

CHICAGO: Exceeds Expectations

23. Nikola Mirotic
30. Jimmy Butler

Traded 28th and 43rd picks for Houstons 23rd pick, Nikola Mirotic.

Butler was very efficient offensively at Butler, and is a very good defender, so the Bulls may have a sleeper on their hands.

How much do you think the Spurs are pissed at not getting Mirotic, who is exactly the type of player they usually scoop up at the end up the first round? He’s a huge steal, but will play overseas for a couple of more seasons. That’s fine with the Bulls.

DENVER: Exceeds Expectations

22. Kenneth Faried
26. Jordan Hamilton
56. Chukwudiebere Maduabum

Traded Raymond Felton for Portland’s 26th pick, Jordan Hamilton, and Andre Miller.

Traded for Laker’s 56th pick, Chukwudiebere Maduabum, somehow.

Although I haven’t confirmed that Denver is, in fact, keeping Faried, if they do this was a very good draft day. I would have liked to have seen them get more for Felton, but Miller is a good, veteran PG that will probably be shipped elsewhere soon. Plus they were able to pick up another pick and a SF who has a chance to be a decent pro.

Faried is the type of player that everyone loves and helps you win. So why didn’t he go higher? Probably because he’s not a scorer and a little undersized.

I have no idea who Chukwudiebere Maduabum, but on his Draft Express profile, he’s listed as Chu Chu. I think he’s worthy of picking just for that. He immediately is in the running for best All-Tim NBA name.

MEMPHIS: Exceeds Expectations

49. Josh Selby

Selby was considered a first round talent, so this has to be considered a steal. Where they’ll find room for him, is another thing.
DETROIT: Exceeds Expectations

8. Brandon Knight
33. Kyle Singler
52. Vernon Macklin

Although I question whether he can play PG, Knight was projected to go in the top 5 and dropped to 8th, so Pistons fans have to be happy. Of course, he kind of presents the same problems that Rodney Stuckey, who’s also a combo guard they tried to turn into a point guard, did.

Singler is never going to be a star, but last year he was considered a middle first round pick and they got him in the second round. I think he’ll hang on and have a decent career as a bench player.

DALLAS: Exceeds Expectations

Traded their 26th pick to Portland for Rudy Fernandez

The rich get richer. Dallas has no use for a rookie and no one picked there was going to help them like Fernandez. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up starting next year.

LAKERS: Exceeds Expectations

41. Darius Morris
46. Andrew Goodelock
58. Ater Majok

Without a first round pick, they were able to pick up a decent prospect, in Darius Morris. This might be the second year in a row they get at least one keeper from the second round.

PHILADELPHIA: Exceeds Expectations

16. Nikola Vucevic
50. Lavoy Allen

Vucevic should end up being a pretty good pro and probable starter. At 16, in this draft, that’s pretty damn good.

CLEVELAND: Meets Expectations

1. Kyrie Irving
4. Tristan Thompson
32. Justin Harper

Irving will probably be the best player, so it was no surprise he was the first pick.

Thompson was the first big surprise of the night. And while I don’t think it’s a bad pick, since I think Thompson is going to be a very good pro, but he was a big reach at 3. Valanciunas would have made much more sense, but apparently Cleveland wants to make an impact immediately. Something they might regret down the line.

I think Cleveland should have offered Minnesota everything but it’s first pick to move up to 2 and draft Williams. If they had come out of the draft with Irving AND Williams, their future would have looked A LOT brighter.

Justin Harper is a stretch 4 that isn’t very big and probably won’t be much of a rebounder in the NBA. If he sticks, it’s because of his shooting. On Cleveland, that’s devoid of talent, he might, but with Antawn Jamison and J.J. Hickson as well as Anderson Varejao, who will probably be traded this summer, it’s puzzling why they’d take another power forward.

NEW YORK: Meets Expectations

45. Josh Harrellson

New York gets the guy Enes Kanter apparently made into the player he is today. So says Harrellson.

MINNESOTA: Meets Expectations

2. Derrick Williams

Traded Jonny Flynn for Houston’s 23rd pick, Nikola Mirotic, and Brad Miller.

For some reason the T-Wolves don’t end up with the 23d pick, so it’s basically a Flynn for Miller deal. Not sure why they’d do that.

Keeping Williams is the right move even though he doubles up on Beasley’s skills. He should be better than Bealsey and should give the Wolves some star power.

UTAH: Meets Expectations

3. Enes Kanter
12. Alec Burks

Although a lot of people had Brandon Knight going to Utah for the months leading up to the draft, they apparently changed their mind with less than a week to go. And while I was a little missed he didn’t fall to the Raptors, I think Utah will be VERY happy they chose Kanter instead of Knight.

Of course, while I think they made the right decision at 3, passing up Leonard, who is probably exactly what the Jazz need, is probably going to

OKLAHOMA CITY: Meets Expectations

27. Reggie Jackson

Jackson is a combo guard who joins an already crowded Thunder backcourt. I really don’t know where he’ll find minutes. I wonder why Oklahoma didn’t simply trade out of the draft.

PORTLAND: Meets Expectations

21. Nolan Smith
51. Jon Diebler

Traded Andre Miller for Raymond Felton

Traded Rudy Fernandez to Dallas for 26th pick, which they gave to Denver in prearranged deal.

Getting Felton for Miller is a great deal for Portland. He might be the young point guard they’ve been looking for all these years.

Unfortunately, picking Nolan Smith over Faried, who they could really use, was a mistake.

ORLANDO: Meets Expectations

53. DeAndre Liggins

He’s a player that was on Kentucky, but now he’s not.

ATLANTA: Meets Expectations

48. Keith Benson

He’s got legit size for an NBA power forward, and he’s stronger than he looks. For the 48th pick, the Hawks did well.

For a team hitting their ceiling, I would have liked to have seen them a little more active. Maybe after the new CBA is signed, whenever that happens.

MIAMI: Approaching Expectations

28. Norris Cole

Somehow got the 28th pick from Chicago to draft Cole, a PG, who should provide insurance in case Bibby is not re-upped.

BOSTON: Approaching  Expectations

27. JuJuan Johnson
55. E’Twaun Moore

Traded their 25th pick for the 27th pick.

Johnson is a decent player, but I don’t see him making any impact on the Celtics, either now or down the line. But would anyone else have?

Moore is an undersized shooting guard, but I’m guessing what attracted Boston was the ability to tell people they drafted JuJuan and E’Twaun. And both are American.

MILWAUKEE: Approaching Expectations

19. Tobias Harris
40. John Leuer

Traded Corey Maggette and 10th pick for Stephen Jackson and Charlotte’s 19th pick, Tobias Harris.

Getting rid of Maggette, who was a disaster, is good, but is Jackson really what they need? And how much longer does he have? Harris is a good pick, though, who’s been compared to Shane Battier.

PHOENIX: Approaching  Expectations

13. Markieff Morris

Morris might make a pretty good role player on a good team. Phoenix, however, needs home runs, not singles. They have a lot of role players and the engine that makes them go, Nash, is nearing the end of his career.

GOLDEN STATE: Approaching Expectations

11. Klay Thompson
37. Jeremy Tyler
44. Charles Jenkins

So they STILL have Monta Ellis, yet decide to draft yet another shooter, while Kawhi Leonard  and Nikola Vucevic were still available. Thompson might be the best player available, for all I know, though, and if Jerry West thinks so, it’s probably true.

I don’t know about Tyler, though, who seems to have the physical tools, but needs maturity.

WASHINGTON: Approaching Expectations

6. Jan Vesely
18.Chris Singleton
34. Shelvin Mack

A lot of teams seemed high on Vesley, but I don’t understand the attraction to him. He’s 6’11 and athletic, but he’s not a great scorer, can’t shoot, isn’t a good ball handler, will probably struggle defensively at the 3 and is a poor rebounder for his size. He’s apparently got a good motor, though, and he’s got a very hot girlfriend, so those are both pluses.

Singleton was on my don’t draft list and I really don’t see how he’s going to play with Vesley. Neither can shoot, but Singleton has even fewer skills than Vesley.

NEW JERSEY: Approaching Expectations

25. Marshon Brooks
36. Jordan Williams

Traded their 27th pick, JaJuan Johnson for Boston’s 25th pick, Marshon Brooks

When I first saw a trade between Boston and New Jersey involving Brooks, I thought it was a blockbuster. No, it was not Brooks Lopez, but Marshon Brooks, who bring his great shooting and horrible defense to a bad defensive team.

CLIPPERS: Needs Improvement

37. Trey Thompkins
47. Travis Leslie

The Clippers traded away a unprotected lottery pick that ended up being Kyrie Irving, who’s probably just what the Clippers could have used to solidify them as one of the teams of the future. What they ended up drafting were two solid NCAA players with probably very little chance of sticking in the NBA.

SACRAMENTO: Needs Improvement

10. Jimmer Fredette
35. Tyler Honeycutt

Traded their 7th pick for Milwaukee’s 10th pick, Jimmer Fredette, and John Salmons

So, the Kings trade John Salmons away, only to trade back for him a couple of years later. And move down in the draft in order to do it. Fredette might be a great shooter, but I don’t see how he helps Sacramento. He’s not going to be a good defender and will do nothing for the chemistry. Keeping the pick and taking Knight or Walker would have been preferable.

HOUSTON: Needs Improvement

14. Marcus Morris
38. Chandler Parsons

Traded Brad Miller, the 23rd pick and a future first rounder for Minnesota’s 20th pick, Donatas Motiejunas, and Jonny Flynn.

Houston’s GM, Daryl Morey, intrigues me. He’s apparently a big advanced stats guy and was initially a guy a lot of Raptor fans wanted to replace Colangelo, but he makes the most head scratching trades. Motiejunas was another on my do not draft list. He doesn’t defend or rebound, but should be able to score a lot, which makes him basically a bigger version of Kevin Martin

Morris is, yet another young, decent power forward to join Houston’s stable of other decent, power forwards. Apparently you can never get enough of them.

Parsons is a typical Rocket small forward. he does a whole lot of things, but none of them really well.

INDIANA: Needs Improvement

Traded their 15th pick, Kawhi Leonard, to the Spurs for George Hill

Don’t the Pacers already have enough PGs who aren’t really PGs? George Hill looked good in the Spurs system, but you need to watch out for those guys, because there’s a good chance he won’t look nearly as good out of it. And while the Pacers already have enough SFs, don’t they know not to trade a draft pick to the Spurs?

NEW ORLEANS: Incomplete

Traded completely out of the draft by trading the 45th pick, Josh Harrellson, to the Knicks for cash.

No, I really don’t think it’s a good idea to be combing through Europe to find the next Dirk, just as it wasn’t a good idea to start stacking your team with two centers, after Houston miraculously made it to the Finals, in 1986, with Hakeem Olajuwon and Ralph Sampson, or to start trying to convert shooting guards and small forwards into point guards, simply because Magic Johnson was 6’9 and could pass and handle the ball like a guy a foot shorter.

You see, the main reason it’s not a good idea to start copying teams that have just won Championships is because you can’t duplicate someone else’s success. There’s not blueprint you can follow. Every Champion has been completely unique. Look back at all the teams that have won and you can’t really say that any team was like any other one that ended up winning it all.

The teams that end up winning it all are usually teams that don’t try and be like another team, or even build itself to beat another team (talk about a bad idea). The real contenders are the ones who are trailblazers (no pun intended) and make everyone else adjust to them, not the other way around.

In the end, THAT’S what we may have learned this season. Well, if you hadn’t been paying attention the last 50 or so years the NBA has been around.

Now, I’m not saying the playoffs weren’t entertaining, because they most definitely were. Close games and unexpected results are always entertaining. But watching the playoffs, something kept gnawing at my brain.

When my beloved Spurs were knocked out in the first round, I realized that these playoffs were going to be a little different. The big problem was not that the #8 seeded Grizzlies knocking off the #1 seeded Spurs was a huge upset. It was, but not to the degree it seemed. The problem was that despite winning 61 games, second in the NBA, the Spurs were simply not that good a team. And neither were any of the other teams out there. I never once thought to myself, “Wow, THAT’S a Championship team”, while watching ANY team play. A few teams looked great in spurts, but in many ways, this year looks a lot like the 2004 season when the Larry Brown coached Detroit Pistons won their Championship.

2004 was, in many ways, a hiccup year. The two top teams were the Indiana Pacers and Minnesota Timberwolves, two teams that had not made it out of the first round of the playoffs in at least the previous three years and had only won 51 and 48 games respectively the previous season.  And both teams only won 44 games the next season.  This was a weird year, to say the least.

And the Detroit Pistons took advantage. Despite winning only 54 games in a very weak East, the Pistons were able to make it to the Finals just in time to play a collapsing Laker team that was on the verge of being broken up and Phil Jackson retiring (the first time, having learned from Jordan that only sissies retire once). The Pistons would become one of the least talented Championship teams in the last few decades, becoming the first team since 1979 to win a Championship without a current or former All-NBA player (Chauncey Billups would later make the All-NBA 2nd team, but not until after the team had won their Championship) on the roster.

So what does all that have to do with these playoffs? Well, as I said, no team really jumped out at me as being great this year, or in these playoffs, not even the NBA Champion Mavericks.

The Celtics completely screwed themselves when they traded Kendrick Perkins and, with him, the only advantage they had over Miami. Ironically, they made the trade in order to try and be able to defend Miami better, proving they were apparently one of the people not paying attention the last 50 years. Instead of making Miami adjust to their size, Boston blinked first and adjusted their roster to beat Miami. And lost.

Orlando went from contender to pretender when they tried to turn back the clock and sacrificed defense for offense in trading for Hedo Turkoglu. Orlando also hadn’t been paying attention the last 50 years when nearly every single NBA Champion consisted of one of the best defensive teams in the league. I find it amazing that Otis Smith, who until he got his job in Orlando was noteworthy only because he competed in a dunk contest against Michael Jordan while he was at Golden State, still has his job after trying to beat the record for killing a team’s title chances the fastest.

The Lakers won 57 games, but never once looked like the dominant team that marched to the Championship the last two years. And the Spurs, despite having one of the worst defensive seasons in over a decade, won 61 games, yet never seemed to be a real threat to win the title.

And then there’s Miami. Well, I do find it funny that there is so much discussion on the internet that the Miami experiment is now considered a failure and that the big 3 needs to be broken up. This from a team that came within 2 wins of winning the title. If Miami needs to be broken up, I’d hate to think what needs to be done in Chicago or Boston, both of whom could only take a game from Miami in their march to the Finals.

Miami was never the dominant team that some expected, but neither are they the disaster that people are making them out to be, now. On a related note, LeBron is being completely maligned after coming up short in the deciding game, yet until just a few games ago, people were talking about LeBron being better than Michael Jordan. Even Jordan’s wingman, Scottie Pippen, uttered such unbelievable thoughts. But just as they tried to anoint (and then tarnish and then anoint etc) Kobe Bryant as the air apparent, the media and fans try and jump to conclusions far too quickly.

So what does this all mean? Well, it means that Dallas is the best team this year, but that might not be saying much. It means that LeBron isn’t Jordan, but that’s not necessarily an insult. It means that everything will start over again in October, if we’re lucky.

As one of the main focuses of this blog is on the Raptors, does it mean anything to the Raptors? Well it doesn’t mean at all what PhdSteve, over at Raptors Republic, seems to think it does. I don’t see Miami’s defeat as somehow a “referendum” on just how valuable Andrea Bargnani is. The one thing we learned from these playoffs (again, for those who weren’t paying attention the previous 50 years) is that defense wins and bad defensive players Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Mike Bibby and Peja Stojakovic all are players that were never the greatest defensive players, but have simply become bad as they’ve gotten older. And all three watched their minutes plummet as the playoffs progressed.

It wasn’t just the teams in the Finals, though. On Boston, the former starter at center for the Oklahoma City Thunder, Nenad Krstic, watched his playing time disappear because, while a good offensive player, was a weak link on a good defensive team.

Now, astute readers will point to Zach Randolph, a player who’s never been accused of taking defense too seriously, came within a game of leading his team to the Conference Finals. Well, all I can say is that Memphis might have ended up beating the Thunder of Randolph was a better defender. Or if that doesn’t work, I could just say they’re the exception that proves the rule, whatever that means.

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COACHING CAROUSEL

Getting back to the Raptors, I find myself unable to get too excited about the coaching search. Dwayne Casey, Lawrence Frank and now Maurice Cheeks are are perfectly adequate choices. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what I think they are adequate. Only a desperate coach is going to want to take over a 22 win team with mediocre talent, so the chance of hiring a great coach is pretty slim. It’s one of the reasons I thought the letting go of Triano was a little premature. First of all, I don’t think he did that bad of a job. No, he didn’t do a good one, either, but given what he was given, I don’t think anyone would have done much better. And I don’t know if there would have been much harm in giving him one more year. After that, the team might have more talent to attract a better coach.

GETTING TOO GREEDY

In my last post, I discussed how Golden State might be on the right track when rumours surfaced about a possible trade of Monta Ellis for Andre Iguodala. I’ve always thought that Ellis, while a fantastic scorer, is basically like a model with a drug habit. Sure, she looks great, but the relationship is never going to go anywhere. Iguodala isn’t the scorer that Ellis is, but he’s better at virtually every other aspect of the game. But now news is that Golden State wants more than Iguodala. Maybe that’s why I’m not a GM (well, that and I’m not exactly qualified). I’d take the offer and run. With Jerry West advising the Warriors, I wouldn’t be surprised if they now end up with Philly’s first round pick, or something.

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So after the long awaited debut of Ed Davis, you have to like what you saw. Davis scored 11 points on 5-7 shooting, and grabbed 6 boards, but what you had to like best is what you saw on defense. True to his reputation, Davis showed why many feel his defense is the best part of his game. He was given credit for 2 blocks, but he altered at least 3 times as many.

I’ve always said that y the time a player reaches the NBA team defense should be mostly instinctual, and in his debut Davis showed that. He knew where to be most of the time and when to rotate. When paired with Amir Johnson, the Raptors actually had a very good defensive front line for the first time this season. It was a wonder to see those two work together in the paint and I look forward to seeing more of that this year.

Speaking of Amir, although he didn’t put up great stats, that’s deceiving because he changed the game on the defensive end in a game where the Raptors pretty much did anything they wanted on the offensive end. His block about 5 seconds into the game set the tone for the Raptors, as did DeMar DeRozan’s subsequent drive to the hoop for 2 of his game high 20 points.

The Raptor players must have loved this game because several were able to break out of slumps. Along with DeRozan, Weems and Bargnani shot well after struggling at least the last couple of games. All three were aggressive on offensive, obviously realizing that Andre Blatche may be a worse help defender than Bargnani is.

Showing why I’ve been saying all along that he was the right PG to start for this young team, Calderon got the offense going, throwing a couple of ally-oops, and shooting an efficient 5-7 from the field. Of course, it was his backup that many will remember from this game.

When the Raptors traded for Jerryd Bayless, I didn’t expect much. I thought it was a good trade because it was a worthwhile gamble, but from what I’ve seen from Bayless in his 4 games with the Raptors is that he’s finally playing on a team that suits his skills. His play against the Wizards was excellent. He played good defense, passed the ball well, was his customary aggressive self, driving to the hoop, and even shot well from long range.

And was it just me, or was that one of the quickest head fakes and crossovers in a while. The headfake looked like it was double speed. The reaction of the bench was priceless, as well.

I’m not ready to dub Bayless as the PG heir apparent. He’s still shown a tendency to ignore his teammates (although not against Washington), which is why I’m not convinced he’s going to become a true enough PG to be a legit starter in the league, but I’ve liked what I’ve seen. He didn’t have a great defensive reputation coming to Toronto, but I have to say I have no idea where that came from. He may get overpowered by bigger PGs, something he hasn’t faced yet with Toronto, but he’s the best defensive rotational PG the Raptors have had in years. And his `never-say-die’ attitude is nice to see and will probably cause him to continue to get regular minutes.

The Raptors have  lot of games against mediocre to bad teams over the next couple of weeks, and it’s possible that the team could end up as the 8th team in the East before Christmas. But before people start making playoff ticket reservations, January most likely will bring the team back to reality. Of course, Toronto seems to play up or down to their opponent’s level, so that makes it very difficult to predict how the team is going to do. They could lose a bunch of games they shouldn’t and then go into a city like Dallas and win. Who really knows. I guess that’s why they play the games.

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So apparently Allen Iverson is broke and selling a bunch of his stuff on eBay. The guy probably made well over $100 million in salary and off the court earnings over his NBA career, yet he’s now trying to make ends meet and trying to earn a Top Rated Seller seal by selling off his NBA memories one at a time. I can’t say I’m surprised.

Two stories relayed to me by an insider. The first is when Matt Geiger bought Iverson’s house in Philadelphia. Geiger found a couple of cars parked in the garage and a GARBAGE BAG full of money in a closet. Geiger phoned Iverson and told him he’d left them behind. Iverson hadn’t realized it, but still told Geiger to keep them.

Another story is when Iverson and a couple of his friends went to pick up someone from the airport. When they couldn’t find where they parked their car, they simply abandoned it and bought another one.

What’s the old saying? More money than sense?

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One common regret among Raptor fans seems to be passing on Roy Hibbert in the 2008 draft, instead giving the pick to Indiana in exchange for Jermaine O’Neal. I’ve often defended the deal, and I think far too much is being made of the fact that they could have had Hibbert since they also could have had Alexis Ajinca, and 17th picks are often such a crap shoot. Still, I was mightily intrigued to see the video below of Hibbert’s new training regimen.

Interestingly, Hibbert also apparently was diagnosed with something called athlete-induced asthma. For the first time, he is able to run and breath at the same time, which is probably why he’s near the top of the Most Improved list.

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Proving that any team can beat any other team on any given night, the worst team in the league, the Clippers, beat the best team in the league, the Spurs, 90-85. Blake Griffin played a Blake Griffin-type game, scoring 31 points, grabbing 13 rebounds, dishing out 4 assists, getting 2 steals and even blocking a shot. Griffin is certainly trying to get as much distance between himself and John Wall in the Rookie of the Year race, and with games like each did tonight, that’s certainly happening.

Calderon didn’t have a spectacular game, and he was guilty of a few too many turnovers, including one key one, but he might have been the best Raptor on the court last night. I’ve always said I like Jack, but he looks for his own shot far too much, especially on the drive, and I think he’s much better suited to the bench. The offense seems to sputter more with Jack running the offense than Calderon, and that’s because Calderon is more a true PG. One of the main reasons many fans wanted Jack to start over Jose was because of defense, but Calderon’s defense has improved quite a bit this year. He hasn’t become Rajon Rondo, but he’s no longer the liability he was the last couple of seasons. I woulnd’t be surprised to see him in the starting lineup by Christmas, if not before.

DeMar DeRozan had a horrible return home last season, and apparently decided to focus more on the game and shut out the distractions this year. It was evident in his game. It wasn’t spectacular, as his shooting percentage wasn’t great and he only got to the line once, but he didn’t back down from playing Kobe and defended him as well as anyone can. And on offense he went at him unafraid. It was another step in his development and great to see.

If there’s one criticism in DeRozan’s game the last couple, is that he isn’t getting to the line like he should be. It’s not as if he’s not driving, but he’s been avoiding the contact more, rather than seeking it. If he’s going to become a great player, it’s going to be in large part for his ability to manufacture points, and getting to the line is a big part of that.

The other player that had a great game for the Raptors was Amir Johnson. Amir had his first double-double of the season, mostly because he was able to stay out of foul trouble. He even got one more rebound (15 in total) than Reggie did, which means the PF position for the Raptors grabbed 29 rebounds. That’s incredible and a big reason why the Raptors were able to kill the Lakers on the boards, despite only 5 rebounds from the center position.

Leandro Barbosa had a great 2nd quarter. Some grumbled that Triano didn’t bring him back earlier in the 3rd, but with the starters holding their own, it was probably best to leave them on the floor. Besides, Barbosa was not impressive when he did return, including seemingly forgetting that he had teammates on the floor. On one play, he overdribbled and then forced the shot, only to criticize Amir for crowding the paint. Meanwhile, half the Raptor players were wide open because it was obvious to the Laker defenders that Barbosa wasn’t going to pass.

Lastly, Julian Wright made a brief appearance and hopefully showed Sonny Weems that there are other ways to help the team other than shoot. Wright showed why he’s got such a great defensive reputation, and even grabbed 6 rebounds in just 9 minutes. In just 9 minutes, Wright was the second best Raptors rebounder.

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In other Raptor news, apparently there are “rumblings” of Toronto possibly having “some” interest in Gilbert Arenas. Hopefully that interest is if the Wizards also want to give up John Wall. That, I might do.

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In other NBA news, Detroit finally won a game against the Charlotte Bobcats. Why is this news I’m mentioning? Because Detroit is a team I think will finish behind the Raptors in the standing, so it’s best to keep an eye on them. But also because Rodney Stuckey was benched for the game by head coach John Kuester. This is the same Stuckey that so many Raptor fans were clamouring over the last couple of years. Personally, I like my PGs to be able to run and offense, but not all Raptor fans agree with that.

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Miami lost for the second time this season, this time to New Orleans, who most pundits probably didn’t give a great chance of making the playoffs. They’re currently undefeated. Funny what a healthy Chris Paul will do for your team. I’m a little surprised at how quickly people for got just how good he was after suffering with injuries last season.

And for those keeping track, Marco Belinelli is still their starting SG and is averaging 11 ppg on .410 shooting. At least that’s better than what he shot with the Raptors.

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Dropbox Tip

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So I was trying to figure out an interesting format I could use to discuss the upcoming season. I came up with the idea to combine my predictions and season preview. Now, most predictions have Toronto finishing at or near the bottom of the league. The line in Las Vegas apparently gives the Raptors 27 wins. The consensus on ESPN has the Raptors finishing last in the East. Basketball Prospectus has them finishing last in the league. Things don’t look good for the Raptors.

So do I see things any different?

Well, before I answer that, let’s look at what I said last season. My prediction was that the Raptors would finish with 45 wins which would put them somewhere in the 5th to 8th seed in the East. If the team continued at the same pace that they were at going into the All-Star break, I would have been correct. I also said they wouldn’t make it to the second round. Well, I was right about that, wasn’t I?

The 45 wins I projected was higher than most media outlets projections of the Raptors. So am I going to continue to be more optimistic than the pundits to the south? Well, you’ll have to read on to find that out.

First some questions (and answers)…

Who will be the Raptors leading scorers this season?

Unlike most years, when there’s really no question of who the leading scorer will be, this year it’s wide open. There are 3 players who, I think, have a chance to lead the team in scoring. Bargnani is the one most expected before the season started, but he didn’t exactly light up the preseason. He never once hit for 20 points and shot just 35%, although his percentage did improve as the preseason went on. What he does have going for him, in this race for leading scorer, is that he shoots the ball. A lot. In fact, he took 19 more shots than the next Raptor player in the preseason, so it’s a good bet that he’ll be in the race. Really, it’s his best attribute, so if he’s not scoring at least 15 ppg, what exactly are they paying him for?

Barbosa is one that a lot of people overlooked when talking about the Raptors leading scorer, but no one played better than him in the preseason. Unfortunately, the injury which hurt him last years apparently isn’t completely healed and he revealed he may need surgery before the season is out. Of course, the amount he shoots the ball certainly won’t help matters. He shot at a rate barely less than Bargnani. Two things need to happen for him to lead the team in scoring. He needs to get minutes and remain healthy.

Kleiza is one I mentioned that had a good shot at leading the team in scoring. He was scorching hot in the preseason and showed a penchant for shooting. He shot at a rate just below Bargnani and Barbosa. Kleiza doesn’t create the way Barbosa does, but he moves better without the ball than Bargnani.

I don’t believe DeRozan will be the leading scorer for the Raptors, but he should get his points simply because he gets to the line better than anyone on the team.

It’s very likely that DeRozan, Bargnani, Barbosa and Kleiza could all average at least 14 ppg. That’s a far cry from last season, when only Bosh and Bargnani scored over 11 ppg. Right now, I think it’s too close to call who is going to lead the team, but I think those four players will end up scoring somewhere between 14 ppg and 18 ppg.

Who will be the team’s MVP?

Does a lottery team really have an MVP? Well, if it does, and he’s on the Raptors, my bet is going to be Kleiza. I think his scoring and toughness will endear him to fans, and by December, he’ll be the #1 option on offense. I think he’s better suited to the position than any of the other Raptors, at the moment, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be the leading scorer. I just think he’ll be the one the offense goes through. I just hope he passes more during the regular season than he did in preseason.

Who will be the team’s starting power forward when the team heads into the All-Star break?

Reggie Evans is currently the team’s starter at PF, and it seems to work since his rebounding prowess makes up for Bargnani’s lack of. Of course, it’s quite possible that Evans won’t even be with the team at the All-Star break. Putting him on display as a starter is probably doing wonders for his trade value, as is his expiring contract. Either way, though, the starting spot is really Ed Davis’ to lose. He may struggle a bit when he finally comes back from injury and plays in his first NBA game, but he was drafted to be the starter and I think that’s where he’ll end up being by the All-Star break.

So, who is going to be traded?

I already mentioned that Evans might get traded, and everyone knows that Calderon is on the block, but my guess for player who is most likely to be traded before the deadline is Barbosa. This is contingent on him remaining healthy, and I think the likelihood of him being traded is less now that he’s possibly due for surgery, but I think his game is just too enticing to a contender for them not to try and pry him away from the Raptors. And as much as I like him, he’s a luxury for a lottery team. The Raptors have plenty of depth at both guard positions even without him.

So who do I think he’ll eventually go to?

Well, I don’t know if it’s a prediction as much as a trade that simply makes sense, but I can see a Barbosa for Gortat and a draft pick trade going down. Barbosa is exactly the type of creator the Magic lack, and Gortat is wasting away on the bench making too much money. And every Raptor fan would probably be thrilled to see a guy like Gortat in a Raptor uniform.

I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see Evans shipped off, but I also have a feeling that Calderon is going to finish the year with the Raptors.

Is Jack going to remain the starting PG?

So if I think Calderon is going to stay, does that mean he’ll stay on the bench, or eventually replace Jack in the starting lineup? Well, I think that it will end up being very similar to last season, when they split the starting PG duties almost 50/50. Both players have their strengths and their weaknesses and reading too much into how each player played in the preseason is dangerous. The Raptors will struggle at some point with Jack starting, and Calderon will come in to replace him. Who’ll end the year starting is anyone’s guess.

Will Amir learn how not to foul?

I really have no idea. Quite a few of the fouls he committed during the preseason were incredibly stupid. Unfortunately he may never get it, but as I said before, don’t read too much into the preseason. I would be nice to see some encouraging signs, but I’m going to leave question unanswered for now.

How many games will the Raptors win?

Before the preseason, my guess was that they would win anywhere from 25-30. That was right in line with the Las Vegas line of 27 wins. After watching them in preseason, I’m going to do them one better. 28 wins. I think this won’t put them last in the league or even in the conference. It will give them a good chance at a high lottery pick next June, though.

EDIT: I meant to add this but had server problems last night and couldn’t.

Will Bargnani average at least 20 ppg and 9 rpg?

Anyone who reads this blog will know my answer to this, but kshiz, over at the great site NBA Analytiks (which is also on the left sidebar), bet me over the summer that if Bargnani didn’t average at least 20 ppg and 9 rpg, he would agree to write anything of my choosing on my site, and I would do the same if Bargnani did reach those numbers, on his site. For the record, I’m going to predict 17.5 ppg and 6.5 rpg this season.

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So what about the rest of the league?

Here are my predictions…

The Champions:

- The Lakers. Miami may have the triumvirate, but the Lakers have the rings and got even better.

The Contenders:

- Miami, obviously.

- Orlando. Too many people are sleeping on them, and although I still think they need to make one more move, I like them to make it to the Finals.

- Boston. They’re old, and Shaq certainly hasn’t helped the last couple of teams he’s been on, but Garnett seems healthier than he has in years and they have pretty good depth, now.

- Dallas. I don’t think they’ve got a chance in hell at making it out of the West, but they should improve on their 50 wins last season. How they do in the playoffs is the biggest question.

- San Antonio. You can never count the Spurs out and with the addition of Tiago Splitter, they have more talent than they’ve had in a couple of years. Plus, Jefferson should perform better after a full year with the team.

- Portland. Injuries took their toll last year, and I think a lot of people are forgetting about them.

- Oklahoma City. Could this be the year Kevin Durant leads his team out of the second round? Almost definitely.

The Disappointments

- Phoenix. It’s a shame to see Steve Nash ending his career on a team that is going nowhere, but the Suns didn’t really help themselves in the offseason and will probably end up missing the playoffs.

- Atlanta. Overpaying Joe Johnson is going to come back to haunt this team that has no hope of being an actual contender. I think this will be the first times in 7 seasons the Hawks don’t win more games than the previous season.

- Denver. Whether or not Carmelo is traded, his future will hang over the team and doom it.

The Worst Team

- Detroit. There’s almost no one on the team I would want. The top five paid players are vastly overpaid, thus making them difficult to trade, and they looked horrible in the preseason. How long will Joe Dumars last before people start wondering whether he was the brains behind the Championship team or John Hammonds was.

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One last note, the Miami Heat lost against the Boston Celtics on opening night, which means the Heat will most definitely not go 82-0. My prediction is they’ll end up with 59 wins.