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The Trading Post
Posted on | February 16, 2010 | 1 Comment
When I worked at EA Sports a number of years ago, I was involved heavily in `Franchise Mode’. It was a natural fit for me and I loved it. Though gameplay was fun, it was managing the roster that I found the most fun. Making trades, drafting etc. What the game never achieved, however, was the hype surrounding this time of year in the NBA. I know I should probably take Doug Smith’s tact and hate this time of year because it’s not about the game, and involves innuendo and rumours, the bane of his existence, but I can’t help it. It’s fun.
Yes, it can be fun for the fan, but for the players it must be torture. Imagine you’re busy going about your job when you keep hearing your name popping up in rumoured transfers to other branches in different cities. It must be difficult.
So with all due respect to the players, this post is dedicated to discussing every rumoured deal, and maybe proposing a new one or two. There are simply too many deals to discuss every single one, so I’ll focus on a few that seem to have legs. First off, though, I’m going to look at Toronto’s situation.
TORONTO
For the first time in a while, the Raptors are virtually a non-entity on the trade rumour mill. It’s a good sign. Making a deal might end up backfiring for the Raptors, unless it seriously upgrades their talent level. Still, there are a couple of moves they could make that might improve them.
Andre Igoudala for Demar DeRozan, Amir Johnson and Marcus Banks
In an earlier post, I proposed including Calderon in a trade for Iguodala, in this one, he’s not included, but Philly gets more salary relief. Banks’ contract isn’t great, but it’s 3 years less than Iguodala’s. Including Amir gives them another young prospect, as well as an expiring contract. Obviously Iguodala would be a great fit for the Raptors, and might be enough to entice Bosh to re-sign.
Andris Biedrins for Amir Johnson and Marcus Banks
While Amir Johnson is having a great season for the Raptors, and fills a need, the fact that he’s a free agent this summer makes it a real possibility he won’t be back. Why not use his expiring contract to try and get something in return. Biedrins is underutilized in Golden State and overpaid, but his rebounding, shot blocking and mobility would be a great replacement for Johnson, and the fact that he’s got a long term contract means that he’ll be around for a while. The biggest plus, though, would be that he would be a better insurance policy for Bosh than Johnson.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Antawn Jamison for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Antawn Jamison is the perfect PF on the market to play with LeBron. He can score outside and inside, and would more than likely get them to the Finals. On the downside, he’s 33, so you’ve got to question how much longer he can play at such a high level. With LeBron not even being 25, the best way to keep him around is to surround him with guys who will be around for a while. Of course, Washington apparently doesn’t want to deal with Cleveland because of the history between them.
Amare Soudemire for J.J. Hickson, Z. Ilguaskas and Jamario Moon (or someone like him)
This would be the trade that would bring the best player, and since he’s indicated he won’t opt out, he’ll probably be with the team for at least another season and would be a huge enticement for LeBron to re-sign. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’s a good fit, and I think he might not like to be LeBron’s second fiddle. On the court, the Cavs currently have LeBron and Shaq to play inside, and I don’t see there being much room down there. Add Stoudamire, and if these guys don’t bump into each other, I’d be surprised. There are also conflicting reports that he my not want to be traded to Cleveland.
Phoenix would be getting Hickson, who is a talented, young big man, as well as Iguaskas’ expiring contract. If I was Phoenix, I’d keep looking.
Troy Murphy for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Troy Murphy might be the best PF for the Cavs to trade for. He’s younger than Jamison and a better outside shooter than Stoudemire. Plus he’s a better rebounder than either of them. I also think he might be cheaper to trade for. He’s the least sexy option, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this is who they end up getting.
A salary dump for Indiana, plus they get a good young prospect in Hickson. This might be the best deal out there and the best chance to rid themselves of Murphy’s contract. On the plus side, it opens up playing time for rookie Tyler Hansbridge.
Corey Maggette and Raja Bell for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Now, I haven’t actually heard Bell’s name in any proposed deal, but it works and makes sense. Maggette is having possibly his best year as a pro, and he’s probably more what Cleveland needs. He’s that second scorer that Mo Williams and Shaq simply aren’t. With both him and LeBron on the floor together, opposing teams couldn’t have a weak defender defending Maggette, as they can with Parker. If I was Cleveland, this might be my first choice of the rumoured deals.
Another salary dump, and considering that no one wanted to touch Maggette a year ago, getting Hickson might be a huge bonus. Golden State has too many wing players, too many scorers and not enough healthy PFs. This is a no brainer, in my opinion.
Now, I have only heard Stoudemire’s name, and no one from Miami, so this is purely conjecture. It would completely kill any cap room they would have this summer, but the question is, would they be able to get anyone better than these two? A lineup of Amare, Beasley, Richardson (either Jason or Quentin) and Wade would be pretty offensively potent. The rim would certainly get a workout. I don’t know how good they’d be defensively, though. Possibly even worse than the Raptors.
The latest rumour is that Miami is looking for a third team to trade with, which makes sense, because I don’t see the above trade going down. Despite their desire for Stoudemire, the only thing they really have of any value they are apparently willing to trade is O’Neal and his expiring contract. I’d be surprised if Amare lands in Miami because apart from the above deal, where they get rid of all but Nash’s big contract, there’s nothing Miami has that the Suns would want.
Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert for Tracy McGrady
I don’t know who’s reluctant to make this deal, but it had better be Philadelphia. I know Houston would be taking back salary, and Dalembert would have to move to the bench when Yao returned, but how could you not do this deal? Adding Iguodala to Ariza and Battier would be potent, and having Dalembert would allow Yao to play limited minutes, possibly extending his career. Quite frankly, I think Philadelphia might be looking for a little more than McGrady for Iguodala, and so they should.
Jordan Hill, Jarred Jeffries and Larry Hughes for Tracy McGrady
This is the latest rumour and it makes a little more sense for both teams. Houston gets New Yorks 2009 lottery pick, Jordan Hill and Hughes’ expiring contract, so they still save money. New York gets more cap space and can try McGrady out for a couple of months. If I was Houston, though, I’d ask for a draft pick as well.
Marcus Camby for Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake
Injuries have really hurt Portland’s chances this year, and this trade highlights just how much. Outlaw and Blake are valuable, but they’re free agents this summer, and might not want to re-sign onto Portland’s loaded roster. Camby gives them a real center so they can remain competitive the rest of the season. The Clippers get a good backup for the rest of the season and maybe re-sign outlaw, who could end up starting for the Clippers, when healthy. Really, it’s a short term deal for both, but Portland has the chance to benefit the most. If I were the Clippers, I’d try and get more for Camby and his expiring contract.
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Those are the main rumoured trades around the league, at least ones that I see even remotely happening. Here are a few that I think make sense, but I haven’t heard mentioned.
Mike Miller and Fabricio Oberto for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
This is one I haven’t heard, and considering Washington’s feelings about dealing with Cleveland, probably wouldn’t happen. It is probably the best deal Cleveland could do, however. Miller is the outside shooter and scoring threat the Cavs need at the wing position, and while Oberto’s best days are behind him, and hasn’t been playing much in Washington, he’s got playoff experience with the Spurs, which looks good on anyone’s resume. Besides, he’d only be needed to play a few minutes here and there.
Mike Miller was traded for when it looked like the Wizards might be a playoff team. They are not. Getting Hickson would be a plus. In the end, it’s a low risk deal that makes sense for both teams.
Kirk Hinrich and Jannero Pargo for Sacha Vujacic, Adam Morrison and Jordan Farmar
The Bulls want to clear more cap room to try and get a big free agent, and the Lakers weakest position is PG. Hinrich is made for the triangle offense and would become their best PG. He doesn’t need to handle the ball to be effective but is a better passer than any of the present Laker PGs, is a very good defender and has lots of playoff experience. The Bulls clear cap room, but also get a couple of nice, young bench players.
Amare Stoudemire for Tyrus Thomas and Brad Miller
I know the Bulls are hoping for Wade to sign, but that’s unlikely, and what they need more than anything is an inside scorer. They discussed trading for Amare last season, but nothing happened. He’s now healthy and would give the Bulls another scorer, which they have lacked. Tyrus Thomas has struggled in his time in Chicago, but he’s not made for that kind of ball. If anyone would benefit from playing with Nash, Thomas would. If the Suns do trade Amare, I think Thomas is the best prospect they could get for him. Miller’s expiring contract means it’s basically Amare for Thomas, which, considering the circumstances makes sense.
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Now, although Orlando has not really been mentioned in any trade talk, I think they need to make some sort of deal. The only reason they beat Cleveland last year is because they matched up well against them, but this year that isn’t so. Trading for Vince hasn’t worked out as well as they hoped, and could use a creative wing player who can do what Turkoglu did, which be the initiator. The player who would be absolutely perfect would have been Iguodala, but Orlando has absolutely no pieces that Philadelphia would want. That might mean bringing a third team into it, but I can’t see who.
Boston’s window is closing, if it isn’t already closed. Danny Ainge has to figure out if the team is still a contender, and may want to use Ray Allen’s expiring contract to get younger.
Minnesota is apparently interested in Tyrus Thomas, but I don’t know who they want to send back in return. The question is, why on earth would they want Thomas? Thinking about it, though, it makes perfect sense. They drafted two starting PGs in the last draft, so might as well deal for another PF when their two best players are PFs. They’re very big on redundancy in Minnesota, and if the GM continues to make moves that don’t quite make sense, he’s going to find himself redundant.
And The Walls Came Crumbling Down!
Posted on | February 2, 2010 | 4 Comments
Anyone who’s followed, or played, basketball for a number of years knew this was an incredibly dangerous game against the Pacers. There were four reasons why I had a feeling the Raptors were going to lose tonight:
1. The Raptors had come back from double digits in four of their last five game, and one of them was against the mighty Lakers. It’s great to be able to come back like that, but when you do it four times in a row, there’s the danger in believing that you can turn it on at any time, so there’s a tendency to relax. Great teams do it all the time. Great teams often can get away with it. The Raptors, no matter how well they have been playing, are not a great team.
2. The Raptors had just won 5 games in a row, a season high. Confidence was high and they’d just been able to easily handle Indiana. In the game in Toronto against Indiana, the Raptors were pretty much in charge the entire time, and despite the Pacers staying close for most of the game, the Raptors were able to kick it into high gear when it mattered and put the game away. Great, but don’t believe you can always do that.
3. The schedule. It has been well documented that the Raptors have an easy schedule for the next couple of weeks. So documented, in fact, that sports writers have been asking the players about it. One problem: no schedule in the NBA is easy because just about any team can beat any other team in any game. That’s the way it goes. There is only tougher and less tough. Not easy. The Raptors were caught in the trap of believing their schedule was easy. It’s not. It’s just easier than it was in November.
4. Mark Stein. I like Mark Stein, partly because he likes Canada, but putting the Raptors at number 7 in his Weekly Power Rankings probably hurt them more than anything. You don’t think the players know they are now ranked #7? Well, on the plus side, they won’t be ranked #7 in next week’s poll.
So there you have it. I’m not going to talk about the game itself because it’s pointless. It’s one game and, despite what some people think, it’s best not to examine it too closely looking for things that probably aren’t there. It doesn’t mean their defense has regressed. It doesn’t mean Bosh is leaving. It doesn’t mean the team isn’t the same one that won the previous 15 of 20. It just means they played a bad game. It happens to every team, even the good ones.
Hopefully they learned a valuable lesson, that they can’t rest on their laurels and assume they’re going to win any game because they can’t. It’s a lesson every good team eventually has to learn, and as I’ve stated time and time again here, this is a young and relatively inexperienced team. This is one lesson. Let’s learn it and move on.
MORE PERSPECTIVE
The Raptors are currently 2 ½ games behind San Antonio, Portland and Phoenix in the league standings. I don’t think anyone would have guessed that would be so more than halfway into the season.
POLL RESULTS
The results of the first poll were quite interesting. Nearly 100 people gave their opinion (97, to be precise) and it was pretty much a stalemate. 49 respondents said they would trade for Igoudala, whereas 48 said no. I have to say I didn’t expect it to be that close.
Personally, I voted `Yes, but regretfully’.
Now, I don’t think they should go out and seek a trade because stability is going to help more than anything right now, and throwing a new player in the mix might hurt in the short term. It took them long enough to adjust to each other, and making any moves is going to put them back some.
On the other hand, adding Igoudala would make the Raptors a better team. Teams, in general, are only as good as their top 2 or 3 players. Sure, role players matter, and so does depth, but the Lakers made their huge jump to contending by trading away depth and getting Pau Gasol, who immediately became their second best player. Cleveland didn’t become a contender until Mo Williams was signed.
Igoudala would step onto a team where he would arguably be the second best player. A team headed by Bosh, Igoudala and Bargnani is better than a team headed by Bosh, Bargnani and Turkoglu. And the Raptors starting five would become one of the best in the league.
Igoudala would also be a perfect fit for the Raptors, who are at their best when DeRozan is playing a game similar to Igoudala, slashing to the hoop, skying for rebounds and cutting to the basket. What DeRozan does on occasion, Igoudala does every night.
Igoudala also would flourish in a running game, which the Raptors play.
And two of his biggest strengths, defense and rebounding, are the two things the Raptors can have the most trouble with. Suddenly Bargnani’s low rebounding numbers don’t matter as much because Igoudala will be taking up the slack (he’s averaging 6.9 rpg this season).
And trading for Igoudala would increase the likelihood of Bosh re-signing, and if he does leave, would help cushion the blow. If Bosh does leave, the Raptors have very little flexibility to do anything to make up for it. Having Igoudala means the team could still compete.
Yes, losing DeRozan would be hard, but do we really expect that DeRozan’s going to be any better than Igoudala is right now? And Igoudala is 26, so he hasn’t even hit his prime, yet.
And Calderon is an important piece of the team right now, and a great backup to Jack, but if given the choice, wouldn’t you rather have Igoudala as your starting 2 than Calderon as your backup 1?
And then there’s the depth issue. Well, right now the Raptors have 7 players for 3 positions. There’s only so many minutes to go around, and you can bet that Igoudala will be playing a lot more than the 20 minutes DeRozan usually does, so there will be even fewer minutes for the bench wing players. And the fact that Igoudala, Belinelli and even Banks can play plenty of back up PG, it’s not something I’d really worry about.
So, have I changed your mind?
Loading ...What He Really Needs Is A Ring (Part 3)
Posted on | August 17, 2009 | 6 Comments
Well, this didn’t start out being an epic, but as you may have guessed by now, I don’t have a real problem when it comes to padding my word count. I also didn’t intend to take so long before I posted the third volume, er, part.
So with the Raptors coming off a somewhat disappointing season, with fewer wins (41), injuries and another first round exit, Colangelo needed to make some changes to the roster.
Ford had become a problem and Calderon was an unrestricted free agent who was getting interest from Miami. Nesterovic was not suited for starting anymore (if ever) and Bargnani was nowhere near ready to start at center (and a lot of people were questioning whether he would ever be ready). While Ford was a talented PG, he’d had two very serious back injuries in his short career. There was very serious questions about his durability as well as his attitude. Colangelo could not have predicted Calderon would have become the player he has when he signed Ford at, what many believed, was a fairly low cost for a top tier point guard. He couldn’t have predicted Horford would blindside him during a game in Atlanta, forcing him to miss nearly two months. Ford was now damaged goods but with $25 million owed to him over the next three years. The Raptors had to trade him, but it would be difficult to find a taker without taking back a player with question marks in return.
It was a few days before the draft when rumours started circulating that a trade was in the works for Indiana’s former All-Star center, Jermaine O’Neal. When the trade finally went down, it was T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic and the Raptors 17th pick for O’Neal. O’Neal was certainly a big name, as well as being a big player, however he’d struggled with injuries the previous few seasons and did not look anything like the player who, in 2004, placed third in MVP voting and made the 2nd Team All NBA. All his troubles can be traced back to the infamous Pacers-Pistons brawl that ended up altering the careers of several players and doomed a once elite Pacers team to eventual perennial “lotterydom” (copyright pending).
The Pacers went from 61 wins to 44 (although still making it to the 2nd round of the playoffs where they lost against…the Pistons). They had the same roster, but the players weren’t the same. O’Neal, Artest and Stephen Jackson, the three main culprits in the brawl for the Pacers, all struggled. Artest was eventually traded to Sacramento for Peja Stojakovic, Jackson had more legal troubles, and O’Neal began to break down. In the four years since the brawl, O’Neal missed 120 games partly due to suspension, but mostly to injury. Just when O’Neal was about to enter his prime (the brawl happened when he was 26), his career started to unravel. The season before he was traded to the Raptors, he missed half the season to injury, scored the fewest points per game since the season before he won the Most Improved Player Award in 2001 and his leadership was being subtly questioned by GM, Larry Bird. If anyone was in need of a change of scenery, it was O’Neal.
While many armchair GM’s bemoaned the loss of a 17th pick, few apparently realized the chance of getting even a half decent player at that spot. In the previous 10 years, only 4 players picked in the 17th spot even ended up being rotation players, most being cut before their rookie contract even finished. The odds of getting a half decent player, especially in a draft that wasn’t thought to be particularly deep, were pretty small. Yes, there ended up being a few half decent players available, but Courtney Lee was possibly the best of the bunch and he only averaged 8.4 ppg. He would have added depth, but not made much of a difference in the win column. And is he really much better than Marco Belinelli or Antoine Wright? Long term, the Raptors didn’t miss out on much.
Author’s Note: There is a false belief among some fans that Colangelo was responsible for trading away the Raptors 2007 first round pick, as well. That pick was traded away by Glen Grunwald in 2002 for Lamond Murray.
Another problem some people had was with O’Neal’s contract. It was (and still is) massive. O’Neal signed the contract when he was an All-NBA center, but never approached that again, as mentioned earlier. Unfortunately for those armchair GM’s, the Raptors payroll ended up being only a little higher than it would have been without the trade. It’s not as if they would have had lots of money to use for free agents. They would still have been well over the cap.
THE THIRD SEASON (with Colangelo)
While many predicted the addition of O’Neal would be disastrous, it wasn’t as bad as many seem to think. Sure, the Raptors struggled almost immediately, and O’Neal never averaged even close to the 20 ppg he did during his best years, he did bring the three things that he needed to: An inside scoring threat, interior defense and above average play at the center position, something the Raptors hadn’t had since the turn of the century. While O’Neal didn’t live up to his contract, he didn’t really need to for the Raptors to succeed. What the Raptors needed was for players other than Bosh (who started off the year with MVP numbers) and O’Neal to play well. While Calderon put up good numbers, it was apparent fairly early that he was not healthy. And every other Raptor regressed. There were numerous games where Bosh and O’Neal were the only players who could find the basket.
Moon stopped rebounding like he did the previous season, and with his low basketball IQ, his ill-timed shots and decision making hurt the team. Moon suddenly came down with Vince Carteritus- the desire to be known for more of an all around game, which apparently means avoiding the paint like Allen Iverson avoids practice. Kapono was also apparently under the impression that shooting too much could give him tunnel carpal syndrome, so turned down more shots than Shawn Kemp turned down groupies. Since shooting was really the only thing he did well, it ended up not being a good idea. Even Anthony Parker, who had always been pretty consistent, started showing his age and watched his shots hit more iron than net. Bargnani, who is no one’s idea of a small forward, had to step into the spot for a period, not because he was finally playing well, but because the Raptors had no other choice. He didn’t exactly light the league on fire, and couldn’t guard anyone on the defensive end from that position. Still, he showed enough flashes that he was starting to look like not a total bust but he still showed the consistency of a 6 year old with A.D.D..
By the time O’Neal started missing time with knee problems, the Raptors seasons was already down the tubes. Former Coach of the Year, Sam Mitchell was a casualty of the horrid start to the season and was fired after an embarrassing loss to Denver that had the 12 year old ball boy scoring a career high. Canadian international basketball icon and Raptors assistant coach, Jay Triano, stepped into replaced him. While his impact wasn’t felt in the win/loss column, the team played better. Bargnani, who started at center in place of the injured O’Neal, finally seemed to `get it’.
The change in Bargnani was immediate. His first game starting at center he scored 26 and never looked back. He ended up averaging close to 20 ppg the rest of the season while shooting a vastly improved percentage. He even looked much better defensively, not having to guard quick wing players he could keep up with. His rebounding, though, was still a concern and after a strecth where he rebounded the ball half decently (although still not great), the last two months averaged fewer than 6 per game.
What allowed Bargnani to play most of the rest of the season at center was a trade that sent Jermaine O’Neal, having been healthy for about a month, to Miami for Shawn Marion. It was probably the least surprising trade in NBA history. Colangelo drafted Marion and he wasn’t fitting in very well in Miami. People were talking about the trade over a month before it happened. Miami President, Pat Riley, apparently wanted to see how O’Neal returned from injury before pulling the trigger. The final six games before the trade, O’Neal scored 20 or more points four times.
On the surface, Shawn Marion was exactly the type of player the Raptors needed. His athleticism was something that was in short supply with the Raptors, his rebounding would make up for the deficiencies Bargnani had, and his defense was something the Raptors desperately needed.
Author’s Note: While I didn’t dislike the trade, I wasn’t a huge fan of it. There were two things I was most worried about. The first is that although the Raptors needed upgrades in the defense, rebounding and athleticism departments, Marion didn’t address what I felt what their most glaring need: A guy who could break down the defense and initiate on offense. Calderon is a brilliant point guard who can run an offense (and that’s a lot more rare than a lot of fans realize) and shoot a high percentage, but he’s not the guy you want creating with 5 seconds left. He’s just not that type of player. And Bosh got far more criticism than he deserved when he was forced to take on role no other big man was asked to do, and that was to score at the end of close games. He did better than he should have, but still not nearly well enough.
The Raptors still struggled after the trade for Marion until, with 13 games to go, everything started to click. Calderon was finally healthy, Marion seemed much more comfortable, and the rest of the team seemed to finally understand what Coach Triano wanted. They strung off a season high 6 wins in a row and finished 9-4.
Unfortunately, it was too little, too late and they finished 6 games out of the playoffs with more questions entering the offseason than ever before. Would Colangelo trade Bosh if he felt he wouldn’t re-sign the next summer? Was Marion simply a short term rental? How would Colangelo return the Raptors to the post season? The most important question has rarely been asked. Can Colangelo build a Championship team?
Colangelo had a vaunted career in Phoenix and deserves all the accolades given to him, but for all their success, Phoenix never reached the Finals, let alone won a Championship. In the modern NBA (and even before), no team that did not at least have the ability to play excellent defense, has never won a Championship. In the last 25 years, only one Championship team did not have a player on either the first or second All Defensive Team. That was the year Miami won, and they had Alonzo Mourning and Dwayne Wade, who both got several First and Second Team votes, as well as Shaquille O’Neal, so they could definitely play some defense. Boston won their most recent Championship by turning themselves into the best defensive team in the league.
Phoenix, for all it’s offensive glory, was never much of a defensive team. Marion and Raja Bell were really the only above average defenders the team had and neither were ever very close to making the All-Defensive Teams.
The Raptors team that Colangelo built when he arrived in Toronto had some pretty good defensive players in Anthony Parker, Garbajosa, Carlos Delfino and even Nesterovic was better defensively than most gave him credit for. Still, none would ever be mistaken for Bruce Bowen.
Bosh, for all his great offensive skills, has never been known as a great defender in the NBA. In the Bejing Olympics, he showed the ability to be a very good defender, and did show pretty good defensive instincts coming into the league. Up until now, though, he has never seemed to put much focus on it. And while Bargnani is a better defender than he was his first couple of years, he’ll never get many, if any All Defense Team votes. Calderon is a better defender, when healthy, than many fans give him credit for, but he’s never going to be above average. He simply doesn’t have the strength or lateral mobility. So considering that no matter who Colangelo gets for the other two starting spots, at least 3 out of the five starters are not going to be above average defenders. It’s safe to say that the Raptors are not going to be an above average team defensively.
I never intended this to be four parts, but it looks like I will need one more `episode’ to wrap things up. The next post will be what Colangelo has done this summer and how that shapes the future for the Raptors.
