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How’s That Crystal Ball? (All-Star Version)
Posted on | February 10, 2010 | 5 Comments
Before we get to the predictions, I have to say a few words about the win against Philadelphia. It’s funny how, when they were up by 20+, I really didn’t see how they would let the Sixers back in the game the way they were playing, but of course they did. It’s what makes them fun to watch, I guess. And however frustrating it is, and dangerous, it is also reassuring that they can do that but still come through when it counts. The Raptors went on a 9-0 run to finish the game after the Sixers tied the game at 93. Ya, they shouldn’t have let them back in the game, but to finish a game like that is impressive.
Now back to our regularly scheduled post…
Since the All Star break is upon us (for the Raptors, anyway), I thought it would be a good time to look back and see how my pre-season predictions are doing.
The first prediction I made was at the end of a very long look back at Colangelo’s tenure with the Raptors.
For those that want to read it in context, it’s right near the bottom, in the Final Analysis.
So way back before training camp even started, my prediction for the season was 45 wins and a chance at home court advantage. Right now, the Raptors are sitting at 28-23 and .549, which translates over 82 games to….
45 wins!
Great, but the season isn’t over yet. They could hit a losing streak or rough patch and never reach that number, or they could continue at their current pace (22-10) since they turned things around at the beginning of December and win 49 games. Personally, I’d like to see the latter happen even if my prediction ends up being wrong.
“Bosh will have a career year, lead the Raptors back to the playoffs and re-sign”
Bosh currently has career high averages in points (24.4 ppg), rebounds (11.4 rpg) and field goal percentage (.525). I’d say he’s having a career year.
Now after the offseason, many questioned whether Bosh would be able to average his normal scoring numbers this season, with the addition of Turkoglu and the continued development of Bargnani, as well as the other additions. Personally, I thought all the additions would HELP, not HURT his statistics. Just about all of the great offensive players the Raptors added were also great passers and I felt that with Bosh planning to score inside more “just an increase by a couple of percent would bring him near the 24 ppg mark”, which is where he now stands.
Now, obviously, the playoffs seem definitely in reach, with the Raptors comfortably sitting in the 5th spot in the East. Home court looks out of reach, but should Boston continue to stumble, you never know. I doubt it, though.
We’ll have to wait until this summer to see whether the last part of my prediction comes true.
“The Raptors will struggle out of the gate but put things together by Christmas”
Well, I wasn’t optimistic enough with this prediction, it seems. They pretty much turned things around after their awful loss against Atlanta. Of course, I also wrote…
“In December, they’ll go 9-6 and people will start forgetting the start, but still talk about trading Bosh. January will see them go 9-6 again, and fans will start talking about trying to get a top seed in the playoffs.”
In December they DID go 9-6, but actually ended up winning 10 games in January, not 9. There was talk of trading Bosh during the rough start, but it subsided in January. Really, Raptor fans are a predictable lot!
It wasn’t really hard to make this prediction, though, however accurate it is. The Raptors were a new, young team, but talented. They got off to a 7-14 the last time they had a rebuilt roster, so it wasn’t much of a stretch, especially considering the tough schedule, that something similar would happen this year.
“Bosh will be the only Raptor All-Star, but not the only Raptor at All-Star Weekend”
Pretty self explanatory here. I was wrong, though, in guessing that Shaq would again be an All-Star (thank goodness), and injuries took away any hope that Danny Granger would return to the All-Star game this season.
I suggested that Bargnani would be a good fit for the 3 point shootout, and I think it’s too bad he wasn’t invited. I think his style of shooting is made for this type of contest. In the end, I think the fact that he actually had a more well rounded offense might have, ironically, hurt his chances.
DeMar will be there, but is not guaranteed to be in the dunk contest. Instead, he’s going in the dunk off. I’m predicting right here he’ll win that dunk off against a guy not really known for dunking and then come in third in the Slam Dunk Contest. I’d love to see him win, though.
“Marco Belinelli will eventually be in the top 3 in voting for 6th Man of the Year”
He’s been up and down this year, but when he’s up, you can see the potential for this. Keep in mind, I made this prediction during a horrible pre-season for Marco. I made some comparisons to Ginobili, which I still think hold true. We’ll have to wait on this one.
“The Raptors will end up being a half decent defensive team”
In November, this prediction looked WAY off, and I won’t lie to you, I was a little worried. Bargnani was not playing defense like I had anticipated, and Calderon has yet to return to the type of defense he played when Ford was in town. In fact, I don’t know if any Raptors looked good defensively in November.
What turned the team around in December, however, was probably their defense. It’s still not great, but it’s about what I said it would be, half decent. They have the ability to play very good defense for stretches, and that’s all they’ve needed to do to in order to achieve the success they have.
Although they have now become a half decent defensive team, if they truly want to become contenders, they have to take the next step defensively. The question is, whether they need to make a trade for this to happen.
“The Raptors will not make it to the second round of the playoffs”
Well, since the playoffs haven’t happened, yet, it’s impossible to know whether this prediction will come true, but at this point, they’re a 5th seed and if the playoffs started today, they would face the Celtics, who they haven’t won a game against this season.
Hopefully things will change.
The rest of the predictions were for around the league….
Things have actually turned out better than I had expected in Cleveland, but I don’t think we have Shaq to thank for this. He’s averaging a career low 11.7 ppg and 6.8 rpg in just 23.2 mpg. They’re a worse defensive team this season, and I think they’ll need to make a trade in order to position themselves better for this summer. They have a lot of older veterans who are on the decline.
As for Shaq, himself, he’s pretty much kept his mouth shut and tried to be a good citizen in Cleveland. Maybe he knows this will be his last chance, or perhaps he heard too much about what he’s left behind. Personally, I just think it’s too early. He’s usually on his best behaviour at first, but he just can’t keep his mouth shut forever. Eventually, you know something stupid is going to come out.
They’re actually on exactly the same pace as last year, but they’ve been very erratic. Howard has not played well when he’s played, and he’s most likely gone by the trade deadline. Now, I’m going to guess that Dallas could get a very good piece in return for Howard. The main reason is because, for all intent and purposes, he’s got an expiring contract. Howard is set to make $11.8 million next season in the last year of a contract given to him when he played a lot better and looked to have a much brighter future. But next season is a team option, and I don’t think anyone would pick up that option, so he’s basically an expiring contract.
Do I bring this up in order to misdirect you so you don’t notice that I wasn’t right with this prediction? Well, yes.
Currently, the Magic are on pace to finish a few games behind where they did last year, and numerous articles have been written about how the Magic miss Turkoglu. Notwithstanding the last game, when Carter stepped in his wayback machine and threw up 48 points against New Orleans, Vince has struggled this season in Orlando. He’s got career lows in scoring (16.6 ppg), rebounds (4.4 rpg), assists (2.8 apg) and field goal percentage (.396).
While Turkoglu hasn’t been lighting it up in Toronto, he’s been the facilitator on offense that the Raptors had hoped he’d be and, if push came to shove, the Magic would rather have Turkoglu back. Last year, Orlando was 9-2 in games decided by 3 points or less. This year, they’re 2-3.
While Joe Dumars, the player, was, and still is, one of more underrated players in the game, I’ve always felt that Joe Dumars, the GM, has always been a little overrated. I went into a little detail of it here, but he’s had his share of bad decisions, as well as good ones. Yes, he built a Championship team, but without Rasheed Wallace dropping in his lap, I don’t think they win it, and, quite frankly, I think they were the weakest NBA Champion in recent history.
And while the trade for Iverson made some second guess him, it’s what he did afterwards that was the clincher for me. Using the cap room that Detroit gained to sign Ben Gordon and Charlie Villaneuva made no sense to me. Both players I felt were incredibly overrated. While both are very good offensive players, they’re incredibly flawed players that will make it difficult for them to ever start on a contender. Gordon is an explosive scorer who doesn’t pass and doesn’t play defense. As I said in my prediction, he’d be great off the bench, but I don’t think you want to purposely pay a bench player $11 million.
And Villaneuva is a big tease who’s got lots of offensive ability, avoids the paint and never, ever plays defense. Exactly where does he fit in on the Pistons squad?
Well, it’s the All-Star break and both Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton are both on the block. Personally, I’d put pretty much the entire team on that block. I don’t see much hope, here.
Okay, so they don’t exactly look like contenders right now, and in fact are only a game ahead of Toronto in the league standings, but I still think this team could put it together in time for the playoffs.What I thought was the best pickup in the league, Richard Jefferson, has not been successful. He not only hasn’t been able to fit in offensively, but defensively, as well. I figured his transition would be incredibly smooth, because I thought he was the perfect Spur player. Right now, I’m reading that the Spurs are willing to deal him, but aren’t finding any takers.
I’m going to tick this one off as incomplete….
So I’m not perfect, but I think I’ve done pretty well, prediction-wise.
Now, to make things more interesting, around the same time I made my predictions, my friend, Darren, emailed me three predictions for the upcoming season. Now, normally, we agree on pretty much everything to do with basketball, but there were two of his predictions here that I didn’t agree with. Try and guess which ones…
1. The New York Knicks will win more games than the Toronto Raptors
Just think both teams defense and rebounding isn’t great, but maybe the Knicks will run a better offense over the course of the season
2. Dejuan Blair OR Taj Gibson will get more votes for Rookie of the Year than DeMar Derozan
Just believe in their college stats, and despite them being drafted later, I think they are and will be better NBA players…not a big believer in that “Bigger Upside Potential” for draft choices
3. The Raptors will finish the season with less than 42 wins.
The East is stronger, and the rebounding and defense will be a nagging problem for them, throughout the year.
He even said he would give me $10 for every prediction he got wrong. Well, if nothing else, I’m going to be up 20 bucks come April 14th. Sorry, Darren.
Big Wins, Dumb Players & Some Perspective
Posted on | January 17, 2010 | 1 Comment
Isn’t it great being a Raptor fan right now? One of the best teams in the NBA, and one of the best road teams, come into the ACC and the Raptors trounce them. After a first quarter where they struggled and it looked like it might be a long night for Toronto, they took charge and outscored the Mavs in every quarter after that, including the often worrisome third. I mean, come on, you had to have been a little worried when the Raptors missed their first five shots in the third quarter.
Bosh was the high scorer, and Bargnani hit some big shots, including a 30 foot fade away with the shot clock down, but Calderon was the man in this game. Without him coming in and changing the game in the second and leading the run in the third and fourth, it might have been a different outcome.
Speaking of Calderon, despite arguing in my last post that he should be starting, he’s looking very good coming off the bench right now. It’s not, however, for the reason some might say. I think he’s a better point guard than Jack and would help the team as a starter, but having him kick start the second quarter with his playmaking has been a HUGE boost for the bench, especially with Belinelli out of action the last couple of games. In the six games he’s been back from injury, the Raptors have outscored their opponent in the second quarter four times. The spark he consistently brings off the bench is something we haven’t really seen from the Raptors in a while. I think it works at the moment because the starting unit is so offensively potent and Hedo makes up for the deficiencies Jack has as a distributor.
That said, I don’t know if Calderon will, or should, come off the bench for the rest of the season. Without him in the lineup, the Raptors only reached 100 points 4 times (in 13 games). With Jose in the lineup, the Raptors have only failed to reach 100 points 5 times, and have not scored under 100 since he’s returned from injury, even against the defensive minded Celtics. For all his deficiencies, his playmaking skills are sorely underrated by many Raptor fans and the team goes through far more scoring slumps when he’s not on the floor. The first quarter against Dallas showed that. If we see more first quarters like that one, expect Calderon to be moved back into the starting lineup.
Now, I mentioned Bargnani had another good game, and regular readers of my blog will know I’ve never been a big fan of his. I’ve questioned his rebounding, his defense and his ability to score consistently. Well, his defensive play against Tim Duncan and Dwight Howard has been well documented, but he’s also boxing out better and playing defense like I hoped he would at the start of the season. The kicker? Bargnani has actually been rebounding like he’s a 7 footer. In fact, in a game like the one against Indiana when he couldn’t hit anything (4 of 14), in the past he would have been useless, but he made himself valuable by grabbing a career high 17 rebounds. Still, the fact that he’s had six games of 6 rebounds or less in the last ten shows he’s not entirely turned the corner.
And while the Raptors are still in the 6th spot behind Miami, in the East, only Cleveland has been playing better basketball than the Raptors since Christmas. Sure, Boston’s been hobbled and beat the Raptors, but the only real disappointing loss the Raptors have incurred (read the only time they lost to a worse team) since Christmas has been against Indiana. It’s actually been great to be a Raptors fan lately.
Of course, some perspective is needed. Although the Raptors currently sit only 1 percentage point below Miami for the 5th seed in the East, if they were in the West, they be below both Memphis and New Orleans, in the 12th spot. Ironically, Memphis and New Orleans are two of the three teams in the league that have a better record than the Raptors over the last 10 games. The other one? Charlotte. This is another worrisome issue. Charlotte is only a half game behind Toronto, and have beaten good teams (Cleveland, San Antonio, Phoenix and Houston) and they’ve beaten hot teams (Memphis and Chicago). In fact, the only team Charlotte played that isn’t either in the top 8 in their Conference or above .500 was New York. Who they lost to. Go figure.
OTHER NBA NOTES
How about Shawne Williams? He gets sent away by the Dallas Mavericks- paid NOT to play- and then when he is traded to the Nets, and waived, he ends up being charged on felony drug charges. Apparently he was intending to sell “a codeine-based syrup.” Excuse me? He’s probably going to jail for selling cough syrup? And exactly why would he need to be selling codeine-based syrup, anyway? Isn’t his $1.5 million salary he gets for not playing basketball enough? Maybe he’s worried about the fact that he’s probably out of the league next year and that cushy NBA salary will be gone. Then again, if he actually took his game seriously and worked on it, fulfilling some of the promise that made him a 17th pick by Indiana a few years ago, he wouldn’t be in this predicament.
Speaking of stupid, it’s almost a little disconcerting how Gilbert Arenas is being erased from the NBA. The Wizards took down all pictures of him, including a massive one outside of the arena, the NBA has excised his image on all commercials, and now Adidas has ended their `relationship’ with him. I guess he and Tiger Woods can hang out together and talk about what it feels like to shoot your own career in the head with your own stupidity.
Even with these very public examples, professional athletes will continue to behave inexplicably believing that they will never get caught. Why? Because professional sports doesn’t exactly attract the brightest people on earth. And yet, people complain Tim Duncan is boring.
It’s Raining In New Orleans!
Posted on | November 6, 2009 | 4 Comments
So, tell me, who is this Jose fellow?
Yes, Jose was able to survive the lynch mobs by Raptor fans, as well as the calls for Triano to park him on the bench, to put together a game that people expected of Jose before the season started. In fact, if he finished the season with the stats he got tonight, I wouldn’t be surprised. 16 points (6-11 fg, 2-4 3fg), 8 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 steal and 0 turnovers. It wasn’t a spectacular game, but I think everyone hopes it means that the real Jose is back. He looked comfortable right from the started, played with confidence and even showed some of that feistiness we’re so used to seeing from him. It was nice to see.
Poor Chris Bosh had an off night against the Hornets, with season lows for rebounds, free throw attempts and field goal attempts. Of course, he also played a season low 30 minutes because the Raptors were so far ahead that he sat much of the fourth quarter, which is good because they play Dallas tomorrow night.
Oh, and he didn’t miss a shot from the field, including a 3 pointer which continues his perfect record from that range for the season.
Bosh was a beast, yet again, scoring inside almost at will against whoever the Hornets sent at him. And although it was sometimes uncomfortable to hear Matt Devlin and Jack Armstrong constantly confess their man-love for Bosh, they weren’t wrong. He’s currently playing at an MVP level. Now the question is whether he can sustain it this time. The extra muscle will help, and I’m guessing so will the additional talent around him.
Speaking of the talent around him, everyone chipped in on this win. Bargnani struggled from the field, as I said he might, but, more importantly, rebounded the ball, grabbing 9 rebounds. He also chipped in with 3 of the Raptors 14 three pointers during the game, including a team record 8 in the 3rd quarter. Seven different Raptors made at least one three pointer, and only Antoine Wright made under 50% of them.
The Raptors even `held’ Chris Paul to just 21 points. And believe it, or not, Calderon had a lot to do with that. Of course, Paul dished out 18 assists. The most astounding thing is, though, that Chris Paul either made or assisted on all but ten of the Hornets field goals. Think this team would survive without him? The Raptors exposed just how little depth and talent this team has, with only three players getting into double figures. The Raptors only had four, but also had two players with 9 points.
It wasn’t all good, for the Raptors though. Although they did play pretty good defense, they did allow the Hornets to shoot 48%. Of course, during the decisive third quarter, when the Raptors took control, they held New Orleans to only 6 field goals and 14 points, and stopped Paul from scoring at all. They can play defense, when they need to. Plus, the fourth quarter, when the outcome was no longer in doubt, the Hornets starting hitting their shots.
So the Raptors start off their big road trip on a great note. And, the Raptors are above .500, and so am I with my predictions.
LOOKING AHEAD
Tomorrow night (tonight for most who read this), is Dallas and a much tougher test. They’re coming off a loss against New Orleans, they’re deeper and more talented than any team the Raptors have beaten, so far, and they don’t match-up all that well against them. Both Dirk and Shawn Marion have the ability to guard Bargnani on the perimeter, and Bosh on the inside. And Jason Terry is the type of guard that causes problems for them.
On the plus side, they don’t have Josh Howard, who would allow the Mavericks to play small, and not be at a disadvantage defensively. And without him, they aren’t the high scoring team they have been, in fact they haven’t won a game yet where either team scored over 100 points. Since the Raptors haven’t scored BELOW 100 points, yet, this works in their favour.
Still, after back-to-back wins, and the game being the second of back-to-back games, it will be a very tough night against a Dallas team that should improve on their 50 wins from last season. I wouldn’t get my hopes up if you’re a Raptor fan.
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