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The Draft Is Here!!! The Draft Is Here!!!
Posted on | June 23, 2010 | 8 Comments
NBA Draft day is one of my favourite days of the year. It’s the day that separates the optimists and the pessimists. Optimists see this as a a chance to get a future All-Star, pessimists simply see this as another chance for their GM to screw up. I’m guessing there aren’t a lot of pessimists whose favourite team is the Spurs.
Since I consider myself a realistic, I guess I’m somewhere in between.
So as always happens, there are more rumours flying around than at any other time of year. Some is misinformation spread by teams wanting to throw other teams off the scent, some is made up stuff that somehow gets mistaken for real stuff and some is the truth. Unfortunately, it’s virtually impossible to separate the truth from the rumours now, unless you bowl with Chad Ford’s brother-in-law and are in the loop. Unfortunately, I ‘m not, so I have no idea.
A couple of deals have gone down…
- The Thunder have acquired Miami’s 18th pick and Daequan Cook in exchange for their 38th pick. It pays to have cap space around draft time. And for all you Raptor fans that wonder why Colangelo couldn’t pull that off, it’s because the Raptors couldn’t have absorbed Cooks contract.
- The Bucks traded their 2012 second round pick to the Nets for Chris Douglas-Roberts. Between trading for Maggette and getting Douglas-Roberts, it’s appearing that they aren’t banking on bringing Salmons back.
Some of the more interesting rumours flying around include…
- Toronto trading their 13th pick to Portland for Rudy Fernandez and the 22nd pick. My take? If Paul George, Ed Davis or another surprise player doesn’t drop to 13, I’d take this deal. I’m not excited about who else is available and Fernandez is probably better than anyone available there. Of course they’d have to figure out how to play four SGs, but they did that last season with Wright. Well, not very well, I guess. Still, if Turkoglu is traded, DeRozan and Weems could play the 3 and Fernandez and Belinelli man the 2.
- Orlando trading Vince to Washington for Gilbert Arenas. My take? Wow, is this how far Vince has fallen, and is this how desperate the Magic are? What exactly does this mean for Jameer Nelson, who was easily the second best player for the Magic during the playoffs.
- The Clippers trading the 8th pick to the Bulls for Deng. Well, the Clippers would have to actually select for the Bulls, since the Clippers aren’t under the cap until July 1st. This would take them out of the LeBron sweepstakes, but Deng would be a nice piece for them.
- The Nets may surprise everyone and take Wesley Johnson instead of Derrick Favors at the 3rd spot. The thinking, apparently, is that the Nets could simply sign an All-Star free agent (Boozer) and pair him with Johnson. I like Favors a lot more than Johnson, but the rumour does make sense. This summer there are a plethora of All-Star PFs available (Bosh, Stoudamire, Boozer, Dirk and David Lee) so they could pick up an All Star PF and then draft a potential All Star at SF. Still, it’s always best to draft the best player and in my opinion, it’s Favors.
- The Thunder may trade Eric Maynor and their 18th and 21st picks to Indiana for their 10th pick. That would give the Thunder to draft a legit big man, like Udoh, Ed Davis or Cole Aldrich, basically exactly what they need to take the next step. Presti might very well be best GM in the NBA right now.
We’ll see how many of those rumours come to fruition, and how many more start flying around tomorrow.
As for the draft itself, I’m not going to do a mock draft since everyone does that and it’s all basically guesswork. I’m going to take a quick look at some of the players, including which ones I like and which one’s I don’t like.
THE SURE-FIRE ALL-STARS:
John Wall: No explanation needed.
Evan Turner: I think he’s going to be a special player in the NBA.
Derrick Favors: The last player I think is a can’t miss prospect. If he doesn’t go third, the Nets are going to regret it, in my opinion.
POTENTIAL ALL-STARS:
Wesley Johnson: He doesn’t excite me, but he’ll probably end up being a good pick.
Ed Davis: It wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up winning a Championship one day. He’s got a very high basketball IQ and an underrated game.
Paul George: He’s got some bust potential, but I read an article that said he might end up being the best player from this draft 5 years from now. That’s saying something. If he falls to the Raptors, I’ll be thrilled.
PLAYERS I’M UNSURE ABOUT:
DeMarcus Cousins: He’s got the talent to be the best player in the draft, but might have motivational issues and be a knucklehead. These are the types of players that get coaches and GMs fired, get traded around as teams get enticed by his potential, and usually end up disappointing everyone. Yes, he scares me.
Greg Munroe: I was tempted to put him in the previous category, but there’s just something about him that makes me hesitate. He’s certainly got the talent, but is the desire and heart there?
Al-Farouq Aminu: Like the players above, he’s got loads of talent, but he seems so painfully shy and quiet, I wonder how he’ll do in the NBA.
SAFE PICKS:
Cole Aldrich: He’s never going to be an All-Star, but I can see him as a ten year starter and a guy who is going to be a solid defender and rebounder.
Xavier Henry: There’s little spectacular about him, but he’s a very good shooter who also players defense. I wouldn’t be upset in the least if the Raptors take him at 13.
MAYBE, JUST MAYBE:
Eric Bledsoe: He had to play off guard beside Wall, but he’s apparently a true PG with blazing speed, good defensive and half decent scoring ability. He’s one of my sleepers.
I’LL GET BACK TO YOU:
Luke Babbitt: He’s a 6′7 small forward whose game might be better suited for power forward, but not his body. Guys like this never seem to work out.
Ekpe Udoh: He’s a fairly raw 23 year old athletic big man who is best at the defensive end. If he was 3 years younger, I’d be more enthusiastic, but at 23, you have to wonder why he hasn’t polished his game more.
Patrick Patterson: He’s a tough, undersized PF who isn’t a great rebounder or defender. So if he isn’t a great rebounder or defender, who cares how tough he is?
Gordon Hayward: If he didn’t surprise everyone and lead his team to the final game of the NCAA’s, would he be rated as high as he is? Why can’t I get Luke Jackson out of my head?
NO THANKS:
Avery Bradley: The fact that his name is so often connected with the Raptors scares the hell out of me. He’s got no PG skills, is undersized at the 2 and doesn’t finish well or draw contact when he drives. People love his defense, but Marcus Banks plays great defense, too. And he barely got off the bench. Oh, and they’re about the same size.
Hassan Whiteside: He’s extremely long, blocked 5.4 shots per game last season and is pretty mobile. Of course, i’ve heard he couldn’t even get really motivated during workouts. How do you think he’s going to do once he’s paid?
INTRIGUING PROSPECTS:
Damion Jones: A tough, excellent rebounding, athletic SF who plays very good defense. He’s not great on the offensive end, but he brings some talent to the table.
Larry Sanders: He’s got great length and athleticism, but he’s painfully thin. And you have to wonder if Hank Kinglsey is going to be part of his entourage.
Solomon Alabi: Again, great length but very raw. Apparently he’s a great teammate and might motivate his teammates.
Kevin Seraphin: See Alabi, but he’s shorter but stronger.
Willie Warren: You think he kicks himself for not coming out last season? I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being one of the top 15 players in the draft….or craps out after his rookie contract is done.
FINAL PREDICTIONS?
Well, I really have no clue who the Raptors are going to end up with. This draft seems to be far to difficult to gauge. I would be surprised if a big name falls in their laps, or if they end up trading the pick. If nothing else, I think the night will be more full of surprises than usual. And in the end, it’s all about entertainment, isn’t it?
Whispering In Colangelo’s Ear (Trades)
Posted on | June 23, 2010 | No Comments
The last of my trilogy of articles before draft day. If you haven’t read the first, involving the offseason strategy I think Colangelo should use, or the second, discussing the draft, I’d recommend it.
Now, obviously there going to be some trades going down this summer involving the Raptors. I think that’s pretty much guaranteed. I’m not a journalist, so I don’t pretend to have a beat on what the Raptors are going to do. I try and read up and keep informed, but it’s nearly impossible to separate the rumours from truth. I’m not trying to do that here. What I’m doing is suggesting what I feel should be the direction the trades should take and why.
The first thing I’m going to do is discuss each player, whether I would try and trade them or keep them and why. For the most part, I’m going to refrain from posting actual trade proposals, since I simply don’t know what a team would be willing to give away for certain players, but I will offer up teams and players I think might make good targets.
BOSH (Only he knows)
While I’d want to re-sign him, if Bosh wants to go, I’ve already detailed the teams I would want him to go and the players I would be looking to get back.
TURKOGLU (Trade)
I think Turkoglu had a bigger impact that some give him credit for. Despite the fact that he simply didn’t perform up to expectations, he more often than not had a positive impact on the team on the court. He wasn’t used like he was in Orlando, but the Raptors are certainly not built like the Magic so there was bound to be some changes. You can blame the coaches (and many do) but in the end it’s up to Turkoglu to adjust, and he failed to.
At the end of the season, I was of the mind to keep Turkoglu. The main reason was because I didn’t like the idea of buying high (his signing) and selling low. I figured there would be a very good chance that Turkoglu would have a better year and his stock would go up, making him easier to trade. After his little tirade in the Turkish media, and the more I read about the behind the scenes stuff, I think it might very well be best to part ways as soon as possible.
At this point, I’m almost willing to just find the best deal for him and be done with it. Possible trade partners include the Jazz (for a package including Kirilenko), New Jersey (for Jianlian), New York (for Eddy Curry), Golden State (for Biedrins), the Clippers (for a trade exception), Memphis (maybe as part of a package in a sign and trade for Rudy Gay), Minnesota (for Corey Brewer among others), Orlando (for Gortat and Bass) or Sacramento (for Dalembert). How serious any of those trading partners is anyone’s guess, but if Colangelo can trade Turkoglu away without bringing back a similar sized problem, I’d be all for it at this point.
Obviously Gay would be the most appealing option, but many stars would have to align for that to happen, including Gay wanting to sign with Toronto. Biedrins and Kirilenko would be nice options, as would Gortat/Bass and Dalembert, but a trade exception would potentially be almost as valuable.
BARGNANI (Trade)
No surprise here. Unless you’ve got specific types of players that can cover Bargnani’s weaknesses, he’s going to hurt your team. The Raptors have none and I’m not high on his skill set enough to want to build around him.
I believe this is the best time to trade him. He still got that “upside” label and skills that some GMs covet. I think if he’s forced to be the first option on the Raptors this year, his fatal flaws will be highlighted and he’ll be less attractive as an asset. Basically, if he doesn’t fulfill his potential this season, it’s fair to say he never will, and I really don’t think he’s going to fulfill his potential. By trading him this summer, you’re trading him at a high.
I don’t think a lot of teams will be clamouring for his services because his skills are so unique. He’s not a big man who is going to play great defense or rebound, which is what most teams want out of their big men.
Minnesota
The first trading partner I would look at is Minnesota. The T-Wolves started Darko, instead of the more talented Love with Jefferson because they want Jefferson to play at his more natural position of PF and because Darko can play on the perimeter, leaving the inside to Jefferson. On offense, Bargnani would be a perfect pairing for Jefferson. Defense is another story, but we’ll let Minnesota worry about that.
The player I would covet the most would be Ricky Rubio. He would be that elite PG the Raptors have not had since Stoudamire. He would most likely want to go to Toronto and is a player the city should fall in love with. And he’s a winner. The Raptors might have to wait a year before he would suit up, but that would give them a year to rebuild.
If they don’t want to part with Rubio, Kevin Love would be another target. He’s apparently available despite the fact that I think he’s going to be a better player than Jefferson. He rebounds, shoots, defends and is a high IQ player. If Bosh leaves, he’d certainly make the locals (and team) miss him less).
Barring getting either Rubio or Love, I’d be happy getting their 4th pick, especially if Derrick Favors falls there, which there is now a possibility happening, apparently.
Golden State
Bargnani seems to me to be the exact type of player the Warriors like. If they would part with Biedrins and their 6th pick in the draft, I’d be happy. Biedrins would be that rebounding and shot blocking center the Raptors have lacked, and with the 6th pick, the Raptors could grab Al-Farouq Amin or Ed Davis who would fill big needs for the Raptors.
Philadelphia
Now, I have no clue as to whether Philadelphia would want Bargnani, but if they do, they have a few assets I’d focus on. If the rumour is true that they would give away the 2nd pick in exchange for taking Brand, they might agree to take Bargnani and someone like Evans for Brand and the 2nd. Personally, I doubt it, though. Still, I’d take Iguodala for him if they do it. Iguodala would give the Raptors a veteran swingman who is still fairly young and could be paired with DeRozan and/or Weems.
Other teams might include Chicago, Phoenix, New Jersey and New York.
CALDERON (Keep)
Believe it or not, I would keep Calderon. I think he’s far more valuable to the team than as a trade asset at this point. His stock is pretty low at the moment, and if he can have a good year, his stock will go up. If he has another similar year, I really don’t think his stock will go down much. Might as well take a gamble. He does help the team and if you can improve the overall defense of the team, he’s going to look that much better.
JACK (Trade)
I like Jack, but he’s a good young player with an affordable contract, so he’s a valuable asset that might be better off being traded for something more in need. On a team with so many holes, having two good PGs is a luxury. He could be included in a Turkoglu or Bargnani deal, or perhaps with another player on on his own. Because he can start or come off the bench, just about any team could use his services.
WEEMS (Keep or Trade)
I’d much rather keep him, but because of DeRozan, he’s almost a redundancy and if including him in a deal would improve the team, you have to do it.
JOHNSON (Re-sign)
With the likelihood Bosh will leave, re-signing Amir is important. He rebounds, hustles and is only 23. I think if you offer him $5 million, he’ll be back and you won’t be overpaying him.
BELINELLI (Keep)
He didn’t perform as many hoped, but he’s still extremely talented and still young. He’s another guy who you don’t want to sell low, so it’s best to keep him and see if he can fulfill some of that potential.
EVANS (Trade or Keep)
He’s more valuable as expiring fodder in a trade than anything he brings to the team. Still, if he returns he’s at least enthusiastic, so I wouldn’t be disappointed.
BANKS (Trade or Keep)
See Evans, plus it’s nice to have a half decent backup PG at the end of the bench who can actually play.
So there are quite a few trades I think can improve the team. I think Colangelo needs burn up the phone lines on draft day, since many of these trades would include draft picks.
Tomorrow is Draft Day, so I’m going to look more closely at the actual draft.
The Trading Post
Posted on | February 16, 2010 | 1 Comment
When I worked at EA Sports a number of years ago, I was involved heavily in `Franchise Mode’. It was a natural fit for me and I loved it. Though gameplay was fun, it was managing the roster that I found the most fun. Making trades, drafting etc. What the game never achieved, however, was the hype surrounding this time of year in the NBA. I know I should probably take Doug Smith’s tact and hate this time of year because it’s not about the game, and involves innuendo and rumours, the bane of his existence, but I can’t help it. It’s fun.
Yes, it can be fun for the fan, but for the players it must be torture. Imagine you’re busy going about your job when you keep hearing your name popping up in rumoured transfers to other branches in different cities. It must be difficult.
So with all due respect to the players, this post is dedicated to discussing every rumoured deal, and maybe proposing a new one or two. There are simply too many deals to discuss every single one, so I’ll focus on a few that seem to have legs. First off, though, I’m going to look at Toronto’s situation.
TORONTO
For the first time in a while, the Raptors are virtually a non-entity on the trade rumour mill. It’s a good sign. Making a deal might end up backfiring for the Raptors, unless it seriously upgrades their talent level. Still, there are a couple of moves they could make that might improve them.
Andre Igoudala for Demar DeRozan, Amir Johnson and Marcus Banks
In an earlier post, I proposed including Calderon in a trade for Iguodala, in this one, he’s not included, but Philly gets more salary relief. Banks’ contract isn’t great, but it’s 3 years less than Iguodala’s. Including Amir gives them another young prospect, as well as an expiring contract. Obviously Iguodala would be a great fit for the Raptors, and might be enough to entice Bosh to re-sign.
Andris Biedrins for Amir Johnson and Marcus Banks
While Amir Johnson is having a great season for the Raptors, and fills a need, the fact that he’s a free agent this summer makes it a real possibility he won’t be back. Why not use his expiring contract to try and get something in return. Biedrins is underutilized in Golden State and overpaid, but his rebounding, shot blocking and mobility would be a great replacement for Johnson, and the fact that he’s got a long term contract means that he’ll be around for a while. The biggest plus, though, would be that he would be a better insurance policy for Bosh than Johnson.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Antawn Jamison for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Antawn Jamison is the perfect PF on the market to play with LeBron. He can score outside and inside, and would more than likely get them to the Finals. On the downside, he’s 33, so you’ve got to question how much longer he can play at such a high level. With LeBron not even being 25, the best way to keep him around is to surround him with guys who will be around for a while. Of course, Washington apparently doesn’t want to deal with Cleveland because of the history between them.
Amare Soudemire for J.J. Hickson, Z. Ilguaskas and Jamario Moon (or someone like him)
This would be the trade that would bring the best player, and since he’s indicated he won’t opt out, he’ll probably be with the team for at least another season and would be a huge enticement for LeBron to re-sign. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’s a good fit, and I think he might not like to be LeBron’s second fiddle. On the court, the Cavs currently have LeBron and Shaq to play inside, and I don’t see there being much room down there. Add Stoudamire, and if these guys don’t bump into each other, I’d be surprised. There are also conflicting reports that he my not want to be traded to Cleveland.
Phoenix would be getting Hickson, who is a talented, young big man, as well as Iguaskas’ expiring contract. If I was Phoenix, I’d keep looking.
Troy Murphy for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Troy Murphy might be the best PF for the Cavs to trade for. He’s younger than Jamison and a better outside shooter than Stoudemire. Plus he’s a better rebounder than either of them. I also think he might be cheaper to trade for. He’s the least sexy option, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this is who they end up getting.
A salary dump for Indiana, plus they get a good young prospect in Hickson. This might be the best deal out there and the best chance to rid themselves of Murphy’s contract. On the plus side, it opens up playing time for rookie Tyler Hansbridge.
Corey Maggette and Raja Bell for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Now, I haven’t actually heard Bell’s name in any proposed deal, but it works and makes sense. Maggette is having possibly his best year as a pro, and he’s probably more what Cleveland needs. He’s that second scorer that Mo Williams and Shaq simply aren’t. With both him and LeBron on the floor together, opposing teams couldn’t have a weak defender defending Maggette, as they can with Parker. If I was Cleveland, this might be my first choice of the rumoured deals.
Another salary dump, and considering that no one wanted to touch Maggette a year ago, getting Hickson might be a huge bonus. Golden State has too many wing players, too many scorers and not enough healthy PFs. This is a no brainer, in my opinion.
Now, I have only heard Stoudemire’s name, and no one from Miami, so this is purely conjecture. It would completely kill any cap room they would have this summer, but the question is, would they be able to get anyone better than these two? A lineup of Amare, Beasley, Richardson (either Jason or Quentin) and Wade would be pretty offensively potent. The rim would certainly get a workout. I don’t know how good they’d be defensively, though. Possibly even worse than the Raptors.
The latest rumour is that Miami is looking for a third team to trade with, which makes sense, because I don’t see the above trade going down. Despite their desire for Stoudemire, the only thing they really have of any value they are apparently willing to trade is O’Neal and his expiring contract. I’d be surprised if Amare lands in Miami because apart from the above deal, where they get rid of all but Nash’s big contract, there’s nothing Miami has that the Suns would want.
Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert for Tracy McGrady
I don’t know who’s reluctant to make this deal, but it had better be Philadelphia. I know Houston would be taking back salary, and Dalembert would have to move to the bench when Yao returned, but how could you not do this deal? Adding Iguodala to Ariza and Battier would be potent, and having Dalembert would allow Yao to play limited minutes, possibly extending his career. Quite frankly, I think Philadelphia might be looking for a little more than McGrady for Iguodala, and so they should.
Jordan Hill, Jarred Jeffries and Larry Hughes for Tracy McGrady
This is the latest rumour and it makes a little more sense for both teams. Houston gets New Yorks 2009 lottery pick, Jordan Hill and Hughes’ expiring contract, so they still save money. New York gets more cap space and can try McGrady out for a couple of months. If I was Houston, though, I’d ask for a draft pick as well.
Marcus Camby for Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake
Injuries have really hurt Portland’s chances this year, and this trade highlights just how much. Outlaw and Blake are valuable, but they’re free agents this summer, and might not want to re-sign onto Portland’s loaded roster. Camby gives them a real center so they can remain competitive the rest of the season. The Clippers get a good backup for the rest of the season and maybe re-sign outlaw, who could end up starting for the Clippers, when healthy. Really, it’s a short term deal for both, but Portland has the chance to benefit the most. If I were the Clippers, I’d try and get more for Camby and his expiring contract.
————————–
Those are the main rumoured trades around the league, at least ones that I see even remotely happening. Here are a few that I think make sense, but I haven’t heard mentioned.
Mike Miller and Fabricio Oberto for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
This is one I haven’t heard, and considering Washington’s feelings about dealing with Cleveland, probably wouldn’t happen. It is probably the best deal Cleveland could do, however. Miller is the outside shooter and scoring threat the Cavs need at the wing position, and while Oberto’s best days are behind him, and hasn’t been playing much in Washington, he’s got playoff experience with the Spurs, which looks good on anyone’s resume. Besides, he’d only be needed to play a few minutes here and there.
Mike Miller was traded for when it looked like the Wizards might be a playoff team. They are not. Getting Hickson would be a plus. In the end, it’s a low risk deal that makes sense for both teams.
Kirk Hinrich and Jannero Pargo for Sacha Vujacic, Adam Morrison and Jordan Farmar
The Bulls want to clear more cap room to try and get a big free agent, and the Lakers weakest position is PG. Hinrich is made for the triangle offense and would become their best PG. He doesn’t need to handle the ball to be effective but is a better passer than any of the present Laker PGs, is a very good defender and has lots of playoff experience. The Bulls clear cap room, but also get a couple of nice, young bench players.
Amare Stoudemire for Tyrus Thomas and Brad Miller
I know the Bulls are hoping for Wade to sign, but that’s unlikely, and what they need more than anything is an inside scorer. They discussed trading for Amare last season, but nothing happened. He’s now healthy and would give the Bulls another scorer, which they have lacked. Tyrus Thomas has struggled in his time in Chicago, but he’s not made for that kind of ball. If anyone would benefit from playing with Nash, Thomas would. If the Suns do trade Amare, I think Thomas is the best prospect they could get for him. Miller’s expiring contract means it’s basically Amare for Thomas, which, considering the circumstances makes sense.
——–
Now, although Orlando has not really been mentioned in any trade talk, I think they need to make some sort of deal. The only reason they beat Cleveland last year is because they matched up well against them, but this year that isn’t so. Trading for Vince hasn’t worked out as well as they hoped, and could use a creative wing player who can do what Turkoglu did, which be the initiator. The player who would be absolutely perfect would have been Iguodala, but Orlando has absolutely no pieces that Philadelphia would want. That might mean bringing a third team into it, but I can’t see who.
Boston’s window is closing, if it isn’t already closed. Danny Ainge has to figure out if the team is still a contender, and may want to use Ray Allen’s expiring contract to get younger.
Minnesota is apparently interested in Tyrus Thomas, but I don’t know who they want to send back in return. The question is, why on earth would they want Thomas? Thinking about it, though, it makes perfect sense. They drafted two starting PGs in the last draft, so might as well deal for another PF when their two best players are PFs. They’re very big on redundancy in Minnesota, and if the GM continues to make moves that don’t quite make sense, he’s going to find himself redundant.
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