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Should Colangelo Play Hardball?
Posted on | July 1, 2010 | 7 Comments
Bloggers note: I know I promised a Draft Report Card, and I had started writing it, but got too busy. I still may finish it, but I don’t get paid to do this, so who knows.
So hunting season has started and the bullets are flying left, right and centre. For Raptor fans, the good part in this is that we don’t have to read all the premature speculation about where Bosh could be going. On the downside, we now have to read the less speculative reports about where Bosh could be going.
By the time you read this, it’s possible that Bosh, or any of the other big name free agents, could have agreed to sign with a team, but I doubt it. Proving that all the rumours flying around about where players have decided to go were false, I’m going to guess it will at least be a day or so before players start making verbal agreements. They’re going to want to know what’s out there for them and they couldn’t do that until today.
So with Bosh seemingly more open to playing second fiddle to guys like Wade or LeBron than he initially stated, it seems that the likelihood of Bosh leaving is pretty much a reality. Too bad. While he’s certainly not the type of big man I would choose to build around if given the choice, he is the best player, by far, that the Raptors have and the team is worse off without him.
The question now is what to do if Bosh chooses to sign elsewhere, as is predicted. Initially, I felt not doing a sign and trade was pointless and only hurting the team. After reading this article on Raptors Digest, I realized that Colangelo might need to take a different approach. Now, I have no idea what deals are available to the Raptors in a sign and trade for Bosh. Bosh going to Miami seems to be the rumour with the most legs, and there is talk of everything from Michael Beasley, Mario Chalmers and Joel Anthony, to a simple $16 million trade exception and the Raptors draft pick back.
The most frightening rumour out there was that LeBron, Wade and Bosh all agreed to sign with the same team, probably Miami. If you’re a Miami fan, you couldn’t ask for better news. If you’re a fan of the other 29 teams, this would just plain suck. The East would basically be a wasteland and no Western Conference team would have a hope of beating them in the Finals. Personally, I don’t see this happening, and there are recent reports that Wade has given up trying to recruit LeBron.
Still, it got me thinking that perhaps Colangelo might not want to simply sign and trade Bosh to any team he wants. Maybe Colangelo might want to sit back and think about what really is best for the Raptors.
If Colangelo decides to play hardball with Bosh, Bosh could simply sign with one of the teams that have the cap space, but he would be losing out on nearly $30 million and an extra year on his contract. That might be enough to entice Bosh to want to help out the Raptors a little more.
First of all, if I’m Colangelo, I’d forbid Bosh from teaming up with both LeBron and Wade. They could only do that in Miami, so Colangelo would simply have to refuse to take back Beasley and Chalmers. Without Colangelo taking back those players, Miami doesn’t have enough to sign all three. Problem solved.
Of course, simply preventing a dynasty in his own conference might not be enough for Colangelo. He might actually want something of value back for Bosh. Something more than a simple trade exception. Could Colangelo give Bosh a list of teams HE would approve of, and what he would expect back were Bosh to agree to a sign-and-trade to them?
If enough teams are desperate for Bosh, he might be willing to put pressure on those teams to agree to Colangelo’s demands. Obviously the teams without cap space would be able to send the most talent back, but simple talent, with equal sized contracts, might not be exactly what Colangelo wants back. Now obviously a trade of Bosh and Jack for Bynum and Odom would be incredibly enticing, especially if the Raptors could turn around and trade Odom for a young player. Even more enticing might be a trade to the Nets, where they send back draft pick Derrick Favors in return. Sure, the Raptors just drafted Ed Davis, who plays the same position, but getting Favors would give the Raptors an 18 year old athletic big man would give them a great piece to keep or trade, but they’d also be getting a sizeable trade exception to do with what they want.
Basically, Colangelo, who has been powerless throughout the Bosh saga, might be able to actually wield some power, and possibly gain some more respect, if he decides to play hardball with Bosh. It certainly could backfire and Bosh could leave for nothing, giving the Raptors less cap space than what the MLE is worth this summer, but Colangelo might actually be able to turn water into wine and come out somewhat of a victor in this whole sordid mess.
It’s a dangerous gamble, and one that will end up affecting the team for years. It’s the dangerous gamble, however, that a great GM would make. Back when Jerry West was in charge of the Lakers, he traded away a top ten center, in Vlade Divac, in exchange for the 13th pick in the draft and the cap space to be able to ATTEMPT to sign Shaquille O’Neal away from the Orlando. Thankfuly, for them, that 13th pick was Kobe Bryant and Shaq decided to walk away from a nice young team in Orlando that had just won 60 games and made it to the Eastern Conference Finals. Can you imagine if Kobe had been a little more like Kwame, and if Shaq decided he like Orlando better? Talk about your bad moves. West, however, had confidence in his abilities and judgement and decided to trust his instincts and threw everything into the pot. Colangelo has that chance, although unfortunately without the same upside as Jerry West’s bet.
Loading ...Whispering in Colangelo’s Ear (Offseason Strategy)
Posted on | June 17, 2010 | 11 Comments
Blogger’s Note: The the Lakers win another Championship and yet another prediction doesn’t come to fruition. Did anyone else notice that whenever anyone made a prediction during the playoffs this year, it didn’t once come true? Steve Nash predicted the Suns would push the Lakers to 7 games. Didn’t come true. Paul Pierce predicted the Celtics wouldn’t return to L.A.. They did. Glen Davis predicted the Celtics would win game 7 and the title. They didn’t. Maybe it was just that no predictions involving opponents of the Lakers ever came true.
So does that mean that the Lakers AREN’T going to be looking at obtaining Bosh this summer? Does anyone remember anything good Bynum did on the court in game 7? Yes, I know he’s injured, but it’s not as if trading him away is going to take an important piece of the Championship team away.
Look at it this way, if the Lakers had Bosh, do you think the series would have gone 7 games?
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It’s no secret that things need to be done in Raptorland. The team is at a crossroads like never before in their history. If Bosh leaves, this October will mark the first time in franchise history the team will start the season without a real #1 option (I hesitate to use the term “franchise player”). It started off with Stoudamire who, while not really a franchise player, did embrace the role of lead player from the start. He was traded and the next year they had Vince. When Vince left, they had Bosh. Some may say that Bargnani is that man, but those who do haven’t read my previous posts on the matter. You can’t have a number one option that can’t create his own shot, either off the dribble, in the post or moving without the ball, none of which Bargnani does well.
So without someone to replace Bosh, the strategy should be to keep him, right?
Not exactly.
That’s not to say that I think it’s time to let Bosh go. I think people who say this are either incredibly short-sighted or overly bitter, or both. It’s true that the Raptors have had little success with Bosh. In fact, Tom Haberstroh at ESPN Insider recently wrote a piece talking about how Bosh can’t be the number one guy. He discussed how Amare and Boozer both got to the Conference Finals with Hall of Fame calibre PGs. Yes, it’s true.
Fact 1: Bosh has never even been able to lead his team to the second round and only to the playoffs twice in seven years.
Fact 2: Bosh is not in the same class as Kobe, Wade or LeBron. There’s no denying that.
People will mistake the above two facts as reasons why the Raptors need to get rid of Bosh. I recently heard that the analogy of building a house. You start with the the foundation and build up. Bosh is a wall and having the wall before the foundation prevents you from building. Now I love analogies as much as the next person, but this is just plain stupid. First of all, a team is not a building, it’s a team. And the aim is to get the best players you can who can fit together best, in any order you can get them.
Let me use another analogy. Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. You don’t get rid of your best player because he wasn’t good enough to lead your team anywhere. You try and get more talent so the fact that he’s a top 15 player and not a top 5 player doesn’t matter. Hell, neither Shaq nor Tim Duncan won anything without at least one All NBA calibre player around them.
So after all that, it doesn’t quite explain my strategy, does it?
You see, while I do want the Raptors to re-sign Bosh, I think doing what he wants is the wrong strategy. If the Raptors number one strategy is to keep Bosh, they should trade their young players for more established players.
The problem with this strategy is that it’s incredibly risky. If the Raptors trade away their young players and end up with, say, Andre Iguodala and Caron Butler, that makes a great team if Bosh stays, but yet another mediocre team if he leaves, and without young players around to give hope for the future.
What the Raptors SHOULD do is assume that Bosh is leaving, but hope he likes what he sees and re-signs.
Aren’t these two completely opposing strategies? Not really. I don’t think anyone would argue against the fact that the Raptors need to make fundamental changes. They didn’t lose games because they lacked talent. They lost games because they were a poorly constructed team. They obviously need to make a lot of changes whether or not Bosh leaves. It’s just a question of which ones.
So if we are going to assume Bosh is going to leave, what should the Raptors do? Well, first of all, the team is not going to compete, so trying to get veteran players who are going to win a few more games now, but not help the team in the long run, is pointless. I’m all for getting someone like Iguodala still, but I’m not going to give up DeRozan for him now like I would have before the trade deadline.
There’s a believe that the Raptors cannot rebuild, for fear of alienating their fanbase. After what has been basically 8 years of rebuilding, asking them to wait a few more might be too much. The problem with that strategy is that it seems to ignore the failure of attempting just that strategy four years ago and then this past year. Neither time worked out well. Is that what you want to give the fans?
I believe that fans will be fine with rebuilding, as long as they see progress, and the team they watch puts out an honest effort. As long as the team has young players with potential who work hard on the floor, you can buy yourself time. And that’s what the Raptors need.
Next up: My advice for the draft.
Looking Into The Mind Of Chris Bosh
Posted on | April 27, 2010 | 10 Comments
As I detailed in my last post, I think there’s still a chance Bosh will re-sign with Toronto. If he does decide to go, nearly a third of the league will be under the salary cap this summer. That’s astounding. I don’t think that’s ever happened before. Of course, just because you’re under the cap, doesn’t mean you’re going to have a shot at Bosh. I don’t see a team like Minnesota high on Bosh’s list. I also can’t see Washington being a likely destination. And then there are teams that have cap room, but simply don’t need a power forward like Bosh (Clippers). A team doesn’t necessarily have to have cap room to compete for Bosh, though. If someone like Houston has the right pieces, they could put together a sign-and-trade deal that could bring Bosh. All in all, I see 8 teams, other than Toronto, as having a shot at having Bosh on their roster next season.
NEW YORK:
Pluses: They play at the Mecca of basketball in one of the most exciting and cosmopolitan cities in the world. They have more cap room than anyone else and could sign two max players. They have some nice young talent in Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Toney Douglas and a player friendly coach with a proven track record and the desire have his players run.
Minuses: They only won 29 games last year and might have been lucky to win that many. While they do have a few nice young players, they have very little talent signed for next season, and only Gallinari looks like he has star potential. They don’t play defense and have a coach that has never shown a desire to focus on it. While they can sign two max players, it’s unlikely that any of the top players would want to go there alone, because there’s simply not enough talent, which means it might be all or nothing. They have no center and no defensive oriented big man on the roster.
Summary: I don’t see it happening. Bosh has repeatedly stated he doesn’t want to be anyone’s second banana, so either he goes to New York alone, and they sign a couple of lesser players, or he signs elsewhere. After struggling for so long in Toronto, the thought of going to a team without a lot of proven talent, I think, would be unappealing. Quite frankly, I don’t see New York in Bosh’s future, nor should it be.
NEW JERSEY:
Pluses: New Jersey has lots of cap room, one of the best young centers in the NBA, and a former All-Star at PG who’s still in his prime. And they’ll have a top four pick in the draft, with a chance at getting one of the best PG prospects to come out in a long time. They have a new owner with deep pockets, a highly respected GM who knows how to build a winning team, and they will be moving to Brooklyn and into a brand new arena in two years.
Minuses: Outside of Harris and Lopez, they are weak in the talent department, and won a league low 12 games. They have no coach and they still have two years as a lame duck team in New Jersey where no one goes to see them, no matter how they are doing.
Summary: New Jersey would be a bit of a gamble, but might end up paying off big. Bosh has never played with a center as good as Lopez, and would benefit greatly from it. If the Nets get John Wall, their future will be very, very bright, and Bosh would be the leader on this team. It’s not mentioned as a likely destination, and probably isn’t, but, in my opinion, it should be.
MIAMI:
Pluses: Dwayne Wade, cap room, Pat Riley and a excellent young coach in Erik Spoelstra. Oh, and it’s warm all year round and there are no state taxes.
Minuses: While the Heat did make the playoffs and win 47 games, the talent outside of Wade is shockingly mediocre. To make matters worse, if they add Bosh, they won’t have any more money to spend on getting more talent. If Wade were to go down (again), the Heat would be a lottery team, even with Bosh. On top of that, Bosh would be overshadowed by Wade.
Summary: On the surface, the Heat have a lot in their corner, but there are far too many unappealing aspects of this choice. It’s not a choice I would choose for him, and not one I think he’d make for himself.
CHICAGO:
Pluses: They have one of the best young PGs in the league, an excellent defensive and rebounding young center, a very good small forward and enough cap room that they can sign him outright, but enough pieces they can do a sign and trade and not lose much. Chicago is also the third biggest city in the NBA. Adding Bosh would immediately make them a contender and he’d be the top player there, even with Rose.
Minuses: The coach is likely gone and the front office has had problems, including making some poor deals. They’re a poor three point shooting team, which might make it more difficult for Bosh to score than he has been used to.
Summary: Possibly one of the best fits for Bosh. They lack a post presence and number one scoring option, which is what Bosh brings. Having Noah will ease Bosh’s load on defense and on the boards, and he’ll love playing with Rose. They could even do a sign and trade with Bosh and sign Joe Johnson, which would make them devastatingly good.
OKLAHOMA CITY:
Pluses: The best young team in the NBA. They’re a 50 win team right now (in the West), with good players on and off the court, and one of the best GMs in the league. The one thing they lack the most, inside scoring, is what Bosh brings. Durant is poised to be one of the top players in the league.
Minuses: With Durant, he won’t be the number one option or the best player on the team, which is what he says he wants. Oklahoma City is not the type of city Bosh apparently likes.
Summary: There are real questions whether the Thunder would even want to spend all that money on Bosh, when they still will have to re-sign all their good young talent, including Durant. They’re a good team without him and adding such a big piece might upset the balance. What they need more is a defensive oriented center, which Bosh is not. Although it’s probably Bosh’s best chance at success, and long term success, the fact that he wouldn’t be the main man and that it’s not a bustling cosmopolitan city probably kills any chance of him heading there.
HOUSTON:
Pluses: They’re already a pretty talented, gritty, defensive oriented team, some nice talent, a well respected coach and a new age GM. Texas is his home state and Houston is a major city.
Minuses: While Houston did surprisingly better than most anticipated with injuries to the two best players, the team has a lot of question marks. Are there going to be any shots available with a backcourt of Brooks and Martin (who sound like a comedy duo) taking 30 shots a game between them? What’s going to happen when Yao Ming returns, and is he ever going to return at full strength? And though Daryl Morey has been the GM of the moment, with his new way of looking at stats, he’s made some perplexing deals. Signing Trevor Ariza when they already had Shane Battier, who plays the same position and does basically the same thing, was strange. As was trading McGrady’s expiring contract for Kevin Martin, a man who’s known as a great scorer, but has been called one of the worst defenders in the league numerous times. And he’s constantly injured.
Summary: Houston has been mentioned a fair bit, especially by Raptor fans, and it’s certainly a possibility. Trevor Ariza was convinced to take less money to play there, so nothing’s out of the question, but I really don’t see it being a good fit for Bosh. The rather eclectic roster, murky future and questionable personnel moves should turn Bosh off in the end, I think. Plus, they have no cap room and would have to do a sign-and-trade. Looking at their roster, there’s really not all that much to offer that would match salaries.
LAKERS:
Pluses: It’s L.A., baby! One of the most storied franchises in NBA history and in a city made for someone like Bosh. It’s Bosh’s best way to win a Championship and he’d have one of the best coaches in the history of the game. While it may seem like a minus having Kobe, since Bosh wants to be the top dog, Kobe is 32 and is looking older and older. He’s played more than 40,000 minutes in the NBA, which has taken its toll. Bosh could represent the Laker’s future and be seen as a saviour.
Minuses: While Kobe is getting older, he’s still going to be the best player on the team for the next couple of years. The core certainly isn’t young and there is a danger of Bosh playing his best years while the Lakers are rebuilding. And his stats are sure to suffer with fewer shots to go around before that happens.
Summary: The Lakers seem like a perfect destination, especially if they were willing to trade Bynum and Vujacic, for the media loving Bosh, especially with his friendship with Kobe, but by the time the Lakers are his team, they very well might not be a contender. He might not be seen as earning a Championship if he won it with the Lakers, but rather riding their coattails. It will certainly be an attractive destination, but in the end, probably not the one that is best for him.
SAN ANTONIO:
Pluses: Very similar to the Laker’s situation, except it’s not L.A. The situation, however, might seem a little more attractive because of the Spur’s sterling reputation as a franchise. R.C. Buford might simply be the best GM in the league. He rarely makes mistakes, is unparalleled at spotting talent and has a symbiotic relationship with Popovich. Duncan might be ready to take the same position David Robinson did when he came into the league. It’s in Texas.
Minuses: San Antonio, while in Texas, is no bustling metropolis. Like L.A, the Spurs best players are getting older and people have been predicting their drop off for years. Buford is a great franchise builder, but if Duncan and Ginobili start showing their age quickly, it might take a while for the Spurs to recover.
Summary: San Antonio may not want Bosh as a replacement for Duncan, since Bosh doesn’t bring the defense Duncan does. If they do, they have the pieces to do a sign and trade for him. Jefferson and McDyess might get it done, but if the Spurs want to replace Parker with George Hill, he might be available if something else was thrown in. In the end, though, I think Bosh is better off going to a younger team where his future is a little clearer.
TORONTO:
Pluses: It’s the city he knows and likes, he can earn the most money here and he knows that Colangelo is willing to build around him.
Minuses: Uh, have you watched the last couple of seasons?
Summary: While most US media pundits would bet everything against it, probably because they don’t understand why an American would choose live in Canada, Toronto still has a shot. They can offer the most money, he knows the city and the organization and the home team usually has the best chance of re-signing. Bosh has had 7 years in Toronto and has never made it to the second round. That could either be a challenge or reason to leave. Personally, I don’t know which it will be.
VERDICT:
Bosh will have a lot of options, but the best one, quite frankly, is Chicago. He gets to go to an already talented team, so won’t have the danger of having to suffer through more rebuilding, it’s a big city, which he likes, and he’d be the man, which is also important to him. Rose is a great player, but at this point, wouldn’t be overshadowed by Bosh. The idea of turning a team into a contender should be extremely appealing to him. While Paxson and company has not proven to be great at building a contender, the talent is already there. A core of Bosh, Rose and Noah is scary. It’s young and extremely talented, and they compliment each other well. In the end, I think it will come down to Toronto and Chicago. Who wins, is anyone’s guess.
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On a side note, someone on Raptors Republic suggested a sign-and-trade for Bosh to San Antonio. Bosh and Calderon for Parker, Jefferson and Blair. The trade is not as noteworthy as some of the reaction. Some people actually had the gall to complain about a trade that would pretty much give the Raptors the best team in the history of the franchise. This trade would improve their defense, rebounding, scoring and playoff experience, as well as give them a former Finals MVP who’s still in his prime. I can see that team possibly making it to the second round of the playoffs. And people were complaining about it. I get the feeling that if Bosh does leave in a sign and trade, some people are going to be awfully disappointed with what the Raptors get back.
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