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A Rundown, What Not To Do…And My Best Case Scenario
Posted on | July 2, 2010 | 12 Comments
As I figured, none of the big three free agents made any decisions on the first day. There goes the theory that everything was planned weeks ago. Of course, there was some action the first day. The best news for the Raptors is that Amir Johnson re-signed. More on that later.
Joe Johnson was one of the players I thought had the least chance of going back to his home team. Now he’s re-signed with the Hawks, continuing them on their course to high level mediocrity. If anything was apparent during the playoffs, it’s that the Hawks are a team built to compete, not win. The smart thing for them to do would be to make some deals and change the structure of their team. The smart thing is not the likely thing, however. My money is on them thinking a new coach is going to be ails this team.
Memphis, who is apparently hemorrhaging money and didn’t even make the playoffs this past season, gave away the first ridiculous contract of the offseason, signing Rudy Gay to the maximum. Anyone who isn’t sure if Bosh is worth the maximum should agree that Memphis drastically overpaid a guy who has never even made the All-Star team before. Shouldn’t that pretty much be a prerequisite to making the maximum? Sure, I like Gay, but since he was a restricted free agent, couldn’t Memphis simply have waited and seen what he was being offered instead of throwing him everything on the first day of free agency? That probably would have been the smart move. Of course, when has anyone used “smart” and “Chris Wallace” in the same sentence?
Minnesota was also another surprise newsmaker, bidding against no one to offer Darko Milicic a 4 year $20 million contract. Now Darko did a fine job in Minnesota, and they should probably jump on any free agent that actually WANTS to go there, but I would have thought it would have been prudent to wait until after they deal Jefferson to sign Darko. Now it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion the T-Wolves have to make a deal. Not a good position to be in.
Milwaukee re-signed John Salmons, who I figured was on his way out after the acquisitions of Corey Maggette and Chris Douglas-Roberts, and added another jersey to the already full closet of Drew Gooden. Gooden is on his eighth team in 8 years and hasn’t played defense or passed the ball at any of his stops. Is he really worth the full MLE? No wonder Gooden jumped on it. Now I have liked what John Hammonds has been doing in Milwaukee, but neither Maggette nor Gooden have played defense since college, and the Bucks got to where they are on their defense. Adding talent is always nice, but I don’t know if I like where this team is headed.
This brings us back to Amir Johnson. I felt re-signing Amir was very important for the future of the franchise. Before the offseason started, I felt that a 3 year, $15 million contract offer to Amir might be enough to bring him back. Unfortunately, $5 million per season is what the inferior Darko Milicic signed for. Then Milwaukee signed Gooden for nearly $6.5 per season. Now, Gooden certainly is talented, but I think it’s ironic that he signed with the Bucks on the same day Amir re-signed with the Raptors. To me, Amir is exactly the type of player the Bucks need and the type of player that would thrive in their system. Instead, they traded him away and signed Drew Gooden. Personally, I’d much rather have Amir.
So, because of Gooden getting $32 million over 5 years, it was evident that Amir would have to get more than that. Apparently he had interest from Phoenix, Golden State and one other team, so Colangelo had to bid against others. I don’t know if Colangelo had to outbid, or simply match the other teams’ bids, but a 5 year, $34 million contract, while seemingly high for a player who only scores 12.7 ppg in 36 mpg, is probably not bad value. I read one comment that bothered me a little, and that’s that Amir is overpaid because his skills are so easily replaceable. Pat Riley has said that hustle is a skill, and in the NBA, it’s not a common skill. And that’s not even close to all Amir brings. He’s a 23 year old, highly athletic big man who rebounds, defends, hustles and is extremely efficient on the offensive end, despite not being much of a scorer. Basically everything Bargnani is not. Personally, I’d rather pay Amir $34 over 5 years than Bargnani $50 million over 5. While Bargnani is going to get you points, Amir is going to do the little things that actually help a team win.
In other Raptor news, Bosh met with Toronto, but there is apparently little hope among Raptor brass he will re-sign. I’d love to have been in on that meeting. You know what keeps going through my head? The show Entourage. In the middle of season 3 when Vincent Chase has fired his agent, Ari Gold, because of a couple of big screwups. Much like Bosh and the other free agents, Vince goes from agency to agency as they pitch him why he should sign with them. All the pitches end up being the same, including Ari’s, which Vince walks out of. It turns out all Vince wanted Ari to do was apologize. If only that was the case with Bosh. I don’t think a simple apology will be good enough in Colangelo’s.
So with one of the pieces for the summer in place, there are some questions about what it is that Colangelo is trying to do. One of the more disturbing bits of news I heard was that the Raptors had interest in Amare Stoudemire. Excuse me while I gag. The argument seems to be that Amare would be able to replace Bosh, although I’m at a loss of why you’d want to do that. With Bosh, the team missed the playoffs, were a disaster on the defensive end and proved that you need more than just scoring to win.
And now you want to replace Bosh with Amare, apparently believing that will improve the team.
This is the guy who the Laker big men basically humiliated, highlighting just how bad Amare’s defense is. And I won’t even mention how every single Phoenix player has mysteriously regressed upon leaving Steve Nash’s domain.
Chris Bosh leaving is a disappointment, but as the late Phil Hartman once said on the very funny show, NewsRadio, “When life gives you lemons, make lemonade, and then toss it in the face of the person who gave you the lemons until they give you the oranges you asked for in the first place?”
Colangelo needs to realize that retooling is not going to be the way to go. Sure, it will help reassure some of the ticketholders that only see one season ahead, and aren’t worried about the difference between competing and contending. Bringing in Amare, or some other move like it, will certainly make the Raptors more competitive, but it’s not going to make them contenders. They need to rebuild, not retool. One of the reasons I liked the drafting of Ed Davis was because he can be the symbol of the type of team the Raptors need to turn themselves into. He’s a smart, defensive player who does all the little things that you need to do to win. He’s San Antonio, not Phoenix. I don’t know about you, but I want San Antonio. San Antonio won three Championships and was one of the most dominant teams in the last ten years. Phoenix entertained and did well in the regular season, but never made it to the Finals.
Colangelo needs to rid the team of the lazy, underachieving players and focus on getting young, talented and hard working players that don’t mind doing the dirty work.
Speaking of which, I’ve decided to share what I hope are the types of deals I hope go down this summer. They’re certainly best case, but if all the stars align, these are the types of deals I’d like to see happen…
1. Bosh is sign-and-traded to the Nets for Derrick Favors and a $12 million trade exception.
2. Bargnani is traded to Minnesota for Ricky Rubio and Corey Brewer and a trade exception.
3. The Knicks, after striking out on the free agent front, agrees to trade for Turkoglu in exchange for Eddy Curry and his expiring contract. Eddy Curry is then bought out.
4. Trade Corey Brewer and part of the trade exception to Houston for the expiring contracts of Shane Battier and Jared Jeffries.
The Raptors go into the season with…
Jose Calderon (Jarret Jack, Marcus Banks)
DeMar DeRozan (Sonny Weems, Marco Belinelli)
Shane Battier (Jared Jeffries)
Derrick Favors (Ed Davis, Reggie Evans)
Amir Johnson (Solomon Alabi)
The team is most likely not a playoff team, but have the right type of players on the team, a few good, smart veterans, a very young core, the likelihood of a high lottery pick next season and a franchise point guard, in Rubio, on his way. If the team looks even remotely like that next year, I’ll be happy with how the offseason transpired.
Whispering In Colangelo’s Ear (Trades)
Posted on | June 23, 2010 | No Comments
The last of my trilogy of articles before draft day. If you haven’t read the first, involving the offseason strategy I think Colangelo should use, or the second, discussing the draft, I’d recommend it.
Now, obviously there going to be some trades going down this summer involving the Raptors. I think that’s pretty much guaranteed. I’m not a journalist, so I don’t pretend to have a beat on what the Raptors are going to do. I try and read up and keep informed, but it’s nearly impossible to separate the rumours from truth. I’m not trying to do that here. What I’m doing is suggesting what I feel should be the direction the trades should take and why.
The first thing I’m going to do is discuss each player, whether I would try and trade them or keep them and why. For the most part, I’m going to refrain from posting actual trade proposals, since I simply don’t know what a team would be willing to give away for certain players, but I will offer up teams and players I think might make good targets.
BOSH (Only he knows)
While I’d want to re-sign him, if Bosh wants to go, I’ve already detailed the teams I would want him to go and the players I would be looking to get back.
TURKOGLU (Trade)
I think Turkoglu had a bigger impact that some give him credit for. Despite the fact that he simply didn’t perform up to expectations, he more often than not had a positive impact on the team on the court. He wasn’t used like he was in Orlando, but the Raptors are certainly not built like the Magic so there was bound to be some changes. You can blame the coaches (and many do) but in the end it’s up to Turkoglu to adjust, and he failed to.
At the end of the season, I was of the mind to keep Turkoglu. The main reason was because I didn’t like the idea of buying high (his signing) and selling low. I figured there would be a very good chance that Turkoglu would have a better year and his stock would go up, making him easier to trade. After his little tirade in the Turkish media, and the more I read about the behind the scenes stuff, I think it might very well be best to part ways as soon as possible.
At this point, I’m almost willing to just find the best deal for him and be done with it. Possible trade partners include the Jazz (for a package including Kirilenko), New Jersey (for Jianlian), New York (for Eddy Curry), Golden State (for Biedrins), the Clippers (for a trade exception), Memphis (maybe as part of a package in a sign and trade for Rudy Gay), Minnesota (for Corey Brewer among others), Orlando (for Gortat and Bass) or Sacramento (for Dalembert). How serious any of those trading partners is anyone’s guess, but if Colangelo can trade Turkoglu away without bringing back a similar sized problem, I’d be all for it at this point.
Obviously Gay would be the most appealing option, but many stars would have to align for that to happen, including Gay wanting to sign with Toronto. Biedrins and Kirilenko would be nice options, as would Gortat/Bass and Dalembert, but a trade exception would potentially be almost as valuable.
BARGNANI (Trade)
No surprise here. Unless you’ve got specific types of players that can cover Bargnani’s weaknesses, he’s going to hurt your team. The Raptors have none and I’m not high on his skill set enough to want to build around him.
I believe this is the best time to trade him. He still got that “upside” label and skills that some GMs covet. I think if he’s forced to be the first option on the Raptors this year, his fatal flaws will be highlighted and he’ll be less attractive as an asset. Basically, if he doesn’t fulfill his potential this season, it’s fair to say he never will, and I really don’t think he’s going to fulfill his potential. By trading him this summer, you’re trading him at a high.
I don’t think a lot of teams will be clamouring for his services because his skills are so unique. He’s not a big man who is going to play great defense or rebound, which is what most teams want out of their big men.
Minnesota
The first trading partner I would look at is Minnesota. The T-Wolves started Darko, instead of the more talented Love with Jefferson because they want Jefferson to play at his more natural position of PF and because Darko can play on the perimeter, leaving the inside to Jefferson. On offense, Bargnani would be a perfect pairing for Jefferson. Defense is another story, but we’ll let Minnesota worry about that.
The player I would covet the most would be Ricky Rubio. He would be that elite PG the Raptors have not had since Stoudamire. He would most likely want to go to Toronto and is a player the city should fall in love with. And he’s a winner. The Raptors might have to wait a year before he would suit up, but that would give them a year to rebuild.
If they don’t want to part with Rubio, Kevin Love would be another target. He’s apparently available despite the fact that I think he’s going to be a better player than Jefferson. He rebounds, shoots, defends and is a high IQ player. If Bosh leaves, he’d certainly make the locals (and team) miss him less).
Barring getting either Rubio or Love, I’d be happy getting their 4th pick, especially if Derrick Favors falls there, which there is now a possibility happening, apparently.
Golden State
Bargnani seems to me to be the exact type of player the Warriors like. If they would part with Biedrins and their 6th pick in the draft, I’d be happy. Biedrins would be that rebounding and shot blocking center the Raptors have lacked, and with the 6th pick, the Raptors could grab Al-Farouq Amin or Ed Davis who would fill big needs for the Raptors.
Philadelphia
Now, I have no clue as to whether Philadelphia would want Bargnani, but if they do, they have a few assets I’d focus on. If the rumour is true that they would give away the 2nd pick in exchange for taking Brand, they might agree to take Bargnani and someone like Evans for Brand and the 2nd. Personally, I doubt it, though. Still, I’d take Iguodala for him if they do it. Iguodala would give the Raptors a veteran swingman who is still fairly young and could be paired with DeRozan and/or Weems.
Other teams might include Chicago, Phoenix, New Jersey and New York.
CALDERON (Keep)
Believe it or not, I would keep Calderon. I think he’s far more valuable to the team than as a trade asset at this point. His stock is pretty low at the moment, and if he can have a good year, his stock will go up. If he has another similar year, I really don’t think his stock will go down much. Might as well take a gamble. He does help the team and if you can improve the overall defense of the team, he’s going to look that much better.
JACK (Trade)
I like Jack, but he’s a good young player with an affordable contract, so he’s a valuable asset that might be better off being traded for something more in need. On a team with so many holes, having two good PGs is a luxury. He could be included in a Turkoglu or Bargnani deal, or perhaps with another player on on his own. Because he can start or come off the bench, just about any team could use his services.
WEEMS (Keep or Trade)
I’d much rather keep him, but because of DeRozan, he’s almost a redundancy and if including him in a deal would improve the team, you have to do it.
JOHNSON (Re-sign)
With the likelihood Bosh will leave, re-signing Amir is important. He rebounds, hustles and is only 23. I think if you offer him $5 million, he’ll be back and you won’t be overpaying him.
BELINELLI (Keep)
He didn’t perform as many hoped, but he’s still extremely talented and still young. He’s another guy who you don’t want to sell low, so it’s best to keep him and see if he can fulfill some of that potential.
EVANS (Trade or Keep)
He’s more valuable as expiring fodder in a trade than anything he brings to the team. Still, if he returns he’s at least enthusiastic, so I wouldn’t be disappointed.
BANKS (Trade or Keep)
See Evans, plus it’s nice to have a half decent backup PG at the end of the bench who can actually play.
So there are quite a few trades I think can improve the team. I think Colangelo needs burn up the phone lines on draft day, since many of these trades would include draft picks.
Tomorrow is Draft Day, so I’m going to look more closely at the actual draft.
The Highest Rate of Return (Part 1)
Posted on | May 27, 2010 | No Comments
Now, when I started this list, I hadn’t read any others out there, but now everyone seems to be writing these, so it’s not nearly as original as I was hoping.
A while ago, I tried to predict which team Chris Bosh would, and should, choose this summer. Recently, it came to light that Chris Bosh and his agent either gave Bryan Colangelo a list of the five teams he will want to choose from (Toronto WAS on the list), or not, depending on who you believe. Personally, I don’t know what to believe, but even if there is a list, I certainly don’t think it’s definitive. I think that other teams will try and woo him and there’s a chance he may go elsewhere.
Now, I have absolutely no clue where Bosh will end up, but that’s not going to stop me from joining the speculation train. Obviously, the best thing for the Raptors is for Bosh to want to go to a team that is either not under the cap, or a team that is under the cap, but still might want to clear more salary. That way, the Raptors would be in a better position to negotiate to get talent back. I’ve left out teams like Utah or Golden State, that could use Bosh and put together a great package, but would be very unlikely Bosh would choose to go to. So here are the top ten teams I would choose for Bosh to go to and who I would ask for in return.
10. Miami
This is the last place Raptor fans should want Bosh to go to. About the only player they have to offer is Beasley, who might very well be the absolute worst fit for the Raptors. He doesn’t play defense and isn’t a very good rebounder. Actually, scratch that, he’d fit right in on the Raptors front line.
Mario Chalmers isn’t a bad defensive PG, but he’s certainly not starting quality. When he might be the best asset to get back, that’s not a good sign.
Some fans like the idea of getting the 1st round draft pick from the O’Neal-Marion trade back. That would be nice, but it just seems like these are the same types of people that pine after their ex-girlfriends/ex-boyfriends even after they’ve gotten married and had kids. Quite frankly, if Bosh goes to Miami, it’s likely Miami won’t see that conditional pick in a while, anyway.
Miami does have all it’s first round draft picks over the next few years, but if Bosh and Wade play together, just how good are those picks going to be?
And if he really wants to go there, he could just sign outright and the Raptors would get back nothing.
9. New Jersey
New Jersey isn’t on Bosh’s apparent list of teams, but I think it should be. And I think they will probably attempt to make a push for him.
While the Nets didn’t get the number one, or even number two, pick, they are still in good shape. They have a borderline All Star at PG, one of the best promising young centers in the game and they have enough cap room to sign a max free agent outright and still have enough left over to sign another good free agent.. What they don’t have are a lot of pieces to send back in a sign and trade, though.
Without no chance of drafting Wall, Harris is probably set at PG, so the only other players the Nets will probably offer to send back are Yi Jianlian (who is a PF that doesn’t rebound or play defense well- no thanks), and three good young shooting guards in Courtney Lee, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Terrence Williams. Of course, they are incredibly similar to the Raptors three good young shooting guards. In other words, there’s really nothing the Raptors need or could even use.
8. Dallas
Now, I never mentioned Dallas in my list of teams Bosh would or could choose, mostly because I see it as a longshot. Bosh is an awful fit beside Dirk, and I can’t see them wanting to switch Bosh for Dirk. Nonetheless, it’s a destination that is sometimes mentioned because Bosh is from Dallas and because they are probably going to make big changes after crashing and burning out in the first round. Plus, if Dirk ends up leaving they will need to find a way to replace him.
They have a fair number of pieces they could offer in a sign and trade, but few young players the Raptors could use. Their top 7 rotation players are all at least 29 years old. The Raptors could try and bring in a third team to try and pawn off some of their veteran talent, but otherwise, bringing in veteran players on the Raptors is only going to keep them a mediocre team.
Some Raptor fans are high on Rodrigue Beaubois, but he’s really a big unknown, playing only 12 mpg with the Mavericks this past season, and has not shown any ability whatsoever to run a team (3.8 apg/36 mpg). Besides him, the Mavericks have no one the Raptors could use to build for the future.
The one player that probably has the most value would be Erick Dampier and his expiring contract. Now, I’ve already discussed that expiring contracts are not going to be nearly as valuable next year as they have in the past, but what makes Dampier’s contract so special is that the final year, in which he makes $13 million, is not guaranteed. What this means is that the Raptors could turn around and trade Dampier to a team wanting immediate cap relief. Could this be used in a trade for Elton Brand and whoever they pick at #2, if the rumours are to be believed that they are willing to include their pick to anyone that takes Brand off their hands. It’s always dangerous to take a player in a trade you have no intention of keeping, so Colangelo would probably want to bring in another team immediately and do a three team trade like he did when he signed Turkoglu. What makes it more thought provoking is that teams tend to deal with the same teams over and over again, and Colangelo has done deals with both Dallas and Philadelphia.
Blogger’s Note:
In the last 7 years, the Mavericks have lost in the first round four times, despite having home court advantage every single year. In the last 7 years, they have become the first #1 seed to lose against a #8 seed in a 7 game series (3rd all-time) and the first #2 seed to lose to a #7 seed in a 7 game series (5th all-time). And they are only one of three teams in NBA history to lose in the Finals after being up 2-0. During that time, only one player has remained the same: Dirk Nowitzki. Dirk’s best year in the league, the year he won MVP, his Mavericks lost in the first round to Golden State. At what point do you think Cuban and Nelson realize that this simply is never going to work, no matter how different pieces you try and throw together?
7. New York
I’ve never been a fan of doing a sign and trade with New York and at one point saw it as the worst option but not anymore. One problem is that the Knicks play in the same division as the Raptors and letting your best player go to a division rival is like having your ex-girlfriend move next door. It’s not a good scenario.
And there was a lot of talk about them sending back David Lee. I can’t stress what a bad idea this is. Lee is a good rebounder, and was one of only 4 players in the league to average 20-10 (Bosh, Howard and Randolph were the others). Unfortunately, he doesn’t play a lick of defense and there is a real question of how much he would score in a system not designed inflate a player’s stats.
Bloggers Note: If I was an owner, the last guy I would ever hire to be my coach would be Mike D’Antoni. His teams don’t play defense, there’s there’s virtually no chance of winning a Championship, but because of the style of play, his players all score and rebound more than they would in any other system. So in other words, players end up looking far better than they actually are, which means you have to pay a premium to keep them, but you still don’t win a Championship.
It’s not as if New York has nothing to send back. Wilson Chandler, Toney Douglas and Bill Walker are all good, young role players who I think would help the Raptors. AND they play defense. Unfortunately none of them really have star potential and the Knicks have given away so many first round picks that getting any back is unlikely.
A lot of Raptor fans seem to like the idea of getting back Gallinari, but I’m not sure he’s the best player to get back. He’s talented, but he’s not a good rebounder or defensive player, and hasn’t that been a problem all year for the Raptors? Besides, I think New York would want to hold onto him.
Now a scenario that is being discussed more and more is to send a bad contract, like Turkoglu with Bosh to New York. This would be the only intriguing thing about a sign and trade with New York. It would allow the Raptors to basically forget about making the mistake of signing Turkoglu last summer. No, one one wants Eddy Curry on their roster, but having Curry for one year is no doubt better than having Turkoglu for four. Especially if Turkoglu is the problem he was off the court this past year.
Now if the Raptors end up getting Chandler, Douglas and Douglas as well as a nice big trade exception, as well as get rid of Turkoglu and his contract, I wouldn’t be all that disappointed.
6. Chicago
Chicago was not only on this apparent list of Bosh’s, but it makes the most sense. Even if no other free agent joins him in Chicago, they’ll still be a good team. The one thing they lack (inside scoring) is what he can bring. And if they sign another free agent, they’ll be an instant contender.
Now, it’s not that Chicago doesn’t have pieces to offer. They have a few. Deng, while vastly overpaid, would immediately become the Raptors best player and Hinrich, while also overpaid, is a good outside shooter and gritty defender. Getting one of those players, as well as Taj Gibson, would pretty good talent to get back. And if they have draft picks they could send back, too.
There are problems, though. First of all, Deng really is vastly overpaid and is also injury prone, plus he plays the same position as one of the Raptors other overpaid players, Turkoglu. I’m not sure you want to spend $24 million on one position and not have LeBron James playing that position. And Hinrich, while the type of player the Raptors need, is going to be 30 years old next season, and would be much more valuable on another team. And any picks they get will probably be low first rounders.
The worst thing, though, is what MIGHT happen. If Bosh and LeBron both decide to sign in Chicago, The Bulls will be unstoppable for the next 5-6 years, at the very least. They’ll end up giving Jordan’s Bulls a run for their money for number of Championships.
The only silver lining would be that there would be a chance, no matter how slim, that the Bulls could end up sending Joakim Noah back if they want both Bosh and LeBron. Here’s the question, though. Would you agree to send Bosh and Bargnani in exchange for Deng, Noah, Gibson and Hinrich?
Next Monday, I’ll continue….
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