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A Rundown, What Not To Do…And My Best Case Scenario
Posted on | July 2, 2010 | 12 Comments
As I figured, none of the big three free agents made any decisions on the first day. There goes the theory that everything was planned weeks ago. Of course, there was some action the first day. The best news for the Raptors is that Amir Johnson re-signed. More on that later.
Joe Johnson was one of the players I thought had the least chance of going back to his home team. Now he’s re-signed with the Hawks, continuing them on their course to high level mediocrity. If anything was apparent during the playoffs, it’s that the Hawks are a team built to compete, not win. The smart thing for them to do would be to make some deals and change the structure of their team. The smart thing is not the likely thing, however. My money is on them thinking a new coach is going to be ails this team.
Memphis, who is apparently hemorrhaging money and didn’t even make the playoffs this past season, gave away the first ridiculous contract of the offseason, signing Rudy Gay to the maximum. Anyone who isn’t sure if Bosh is worth the maximum should agree that Memphis drastically overpaid a guy who has never even made the All-Star team before. Shouldn’t that pretty much be a prerequisite to making the maximum? Sure, I like Gay, but since he was a restricted free agent, couldn’t Memphis simply have waited and seen what he was being offered instead of throwing him everything on the first day of free agency? That probably would have been the smart move. Of course, when has anyone used “smart” and “Chris Wallace” in the same sentence?
Minnesota was also another surprise newsmaker, bidding against no one to offer Darko Milicic a 4 year $20 million contract. Now Darko did a fine job in Minnesota, and they should probably jump on any free agent that actually WANTS to go there, but I would have thought it would have been prudent to wait until after they deal Jefferson to sign Darko. Now it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion the T-Wolves have to make a deal. Not a good position to be in.
Milwaukee re-signed John Salmons, who I figured was on his way out after the acquisitions of Corey Maggette and Chris Douglas-Roberts, and added another jersey to the already full closet of Drew Gooden. Gooden is on his eighth team in 8 years and hasn’t played defense or passed the ball at any of his stops. Is he really worth the full MLE? No wonder Gooden jumped on it. Now I have liked what John Hammonds has been doing in Milwaukee, but neither Maggette nor Gooden have played defense since college, and the Bucks got to where they are on their defense. Adding talent is always nice, but I don’t know if I like where this team is headed.
This brings us back to Amir Johnson. I felt re-signing Amir was very important for the future of the franchise. Before the offseason started, I felt that a 3 year, $15 million contract offer to Amir might be enough to bring him back. Unfortunately, $5 million per season is what the inferior Darko Milicic signed for. Then Milwaukee signed Gooden for nearly $6.5 per season. Now, Gooden certainly is talented, but I think it’s ironic that he signed with the Bucks on the same day Amir re-signed with the Raptors. To me, Amir is exactly the type of player the Bucks need and the type of player that would thrive in their system. Instead, they traded him away and signed Drew Gooden. Personally, I’d much rather have Amir.
So, because of Gooden getting $32 million over 5 years, it was evident that Amir would have to get more than that. Apparently he had interest from Phoenix, Golden State and one other team, so Colangelo had to bid against others. I don’t know if Colangelo had to outbid, or simply match the other teams’ bids, but a 5 year, $34 million contract, while seemingly high for a player who only scores 12.7 ppg in 36 mpg, is probably not bad value. I read one comment that bothered me a little, and that’s that Amir is overpaid because his skills are so easily replaceable. Pat Riley has said that hustle is a skill, and in the NBA, it’s not a common skill. And that’s not even close to all Amir brings. He’s a 23 year old, highly athletic big man who rebounds, defends, hustles and is extremely efficient on the offensive end, despite not being much of a scorer. Basically everything Bargnani is not. Personally, I’d rather pay Amir $34 over 5 years than Bargnani $50 million over 5. While Bargnani is going to get you points, Amir is going to do the little things that actually help a team win.
In other Raptor news, Bosh met with Toronto, but there is apparently little hope among Raptor brass he will re-sign. I’d love to have been in on that meeting. You know what keeps going through my head? The show Entourage. In the middle of season 3 when Vincent Chase has fired his agent, Ari Gold, because of a couple of big screwups. Much like Bosh and the other free agents, Vince goes from agency to agency as they pitch him why he should sign with them. All the pitches end up being the same, including Ari’s, which Vince walks out of. It turns out all Vince wanted Ari to do was apologize. If only that was the case with Bosh. I don’t think a simple apology will be good enough in Colangelo’s.
So with one of the pieces for the summer in place, there are some questions about what it is that Colangelo is trying to do. One of the more disturbing bits of news I heard was that the Raptors had interest in Amare Stoudemire. Excuse me while I gag. The argument seems to be that Amare would be able to replace Bosh, although I’m at a loss of why you’d want to do that. With Bosh, the team missed the playoffs, were a disaster on the defensive end and proved that you need more than just scoring to win.
And now you want to replace Bosh with Amare, apparently believing that will improve the team.
This is the guy who the Laker big men basically humiliated, highlighting just how bad Amare’s defense is. And I won’t even mention how every single Phoenix player has mysteriously regressed upon leaving Steve Nash’s domain.
Chris Bosh leaving is a disappointment, but as the late Phil Hartman once said on the very funny show, NewsRadio, “When life gives you lemons, make lemonade, and then toss it in the face of the person who gave you the lemons until they give you the oranges you asked for in the first place?”
Colangelo needs to realize that retooling is not going to be the way to go. Sure, it will help reassure some of the ticketholders that only see one season ahead, and aren’t worried about the difference between competing and contending. Bringing in Amare, or some other move like it, will certainly make the Raptors more competitive, but it’s not going to make them contenders. They need to rebuild, not retool. One of the reasons I liked the drafting of Ed Davis was because he can be the symbol of the type of team the Raptors need to turn themselves into. He’s a smart, defensive player who does all the little things that you need to do to win. He’s San Antonio, not Phoenix. I don’t know about you, but I want San Antonio. San Antonio won three Championships and was one of the most dominant teams in the last ten years. Phoenix entertained and did well in the regular season, but never made it to the Finals.
Colangelo needs to rid the team of the lazy, underachieving players and focus on getting young, talented and hard working players that don’t mind doing the dirty work.
Speaking of which, I’ve decided to share what I hope are the types of deals I hope go down this summer. They’re certainly best case, but if all the stars align, these are the types of deals I’d like to see happen…
1. Bosh is sign-and-traded to the Nets for Derrick Favors and a $12 million trade exception.
2. Bargnani is traded to Minnesota for Ricky Rubio and Corey Brewer and a trade exception.
3. The Knicks, after striking out on the free agent front, agrees to trade for Turkoglu in exchange for Eddy Curry and his expiring contract. Eddy Curry is then bought out.
4. Trade Corey Brewer and part of the trade exception to Houston for the expiring contracts of Shane Battier and Jared Jeffries.
The Raptors go into the season with…
Jose Calderon (Jarret Jack, Marcus Banks)
DeMar DeRozan (Sonny Weems, Marco Belinelli)
Shane Battier (Jared Jeffries)
Derrick Favors (Ed Davis, Reggie Evans)
Amir Johnson (Solomon Alabi)
The team is most likely not a playoff team, but have the right type of players on the team, a few good, smart veterans, a very young core, the likelihood of a high lottery pick next season and a franchise point guard, in Rubio, on his way. If the team looks even remotely like that next year, I’ll be happy with how the offseason transpired.
Whispering In Colangelo’s Ear (Trades)
Posted on | June 23, 2010 | No Comments
The last of my trilogy of articles before draft day. If you haven’t read the first, involving the offseason strategy I think Colangelo should use, or the second, discussing the draft, I’d recommend it.
Now, obviously there going to be some trades going down this summer involving the Raptors. I think that’s pretty much guaranteed. I’m not a journalist, so I don’t pretend to have a beat on what the Raptors are going to do. I try and read up and keep informed, but it’s nearly impossible to separate the rumours from truth. I’m not trying to do that here. What I’m doing is suggesting what I feel should be the direction the trades should take and why.
The first thing I’m going to do is discuss each player, whether I would try and trade them or keep them and why. For the most part, I’m going to refrain from posting actual trade proposals, since I simply don’t know what a team would be willing to give away for certain players, but I will offer up teams and players I think might make good targets.
BOSH (Only he knows)
While I’d want to re-sign him, if Bosh wants to go, I’ve already detailed the teams I would want him to go and the players I would be looking to get back.
TURKOGLU (Trade)
I think Turkoglu had a bigger impact that some give him credit for. Despite the fact that he simply didn’t perform up to expectations, he more often than not had a positive impact on the team on the court. He wasn’t used like he was in Orlando, but the Raptors are certainly not built like the Magic so there was bound to be some changes. You can blame the coaches (and many do) but in the end it’s up to Turkoglu to adjust, and he failed to.
At the end of the season, I was of the mind to keep Turkoglu. The main reason was because I didn’t like the idea of buying high (his signing) and selling low. I figured there would be a very good chance that Turkoglu would have a better year and his stock would go up, making him easier to trade. After his little tirade in the Turkish media, and the more I read about the behind the scenes stuff, I think it might very well be best to part ways as soon as possible.
At this point, I’m almost willing to just find the best deal for him and be done with it. Possible trade partners include the Jazz (for a package including Kirilenko), New Jersey (for Jianlian), New York (for Eddy Curry), Golden State (for Biedrins), the Clippers (for a trade exception), Memphis (maybe as part of a package in a sign and trade for Rudy Gay), Minnesota (for Corey Brewer among others), Orlando (for Gortat and Bass) or Sacramento (for Dalembert). How serious any of those trading partners is anyone’s guess, but if Colangelo can trade Turkoglu away without bringing back a similar sized problem, I’d be all for it at this point.
Obviously Gay would be the most appealing option, but many stars would have to align for that to happen, including Gay wanting to sign with Toronto. Biedrins and Kirilenko would be nice options, as would Gortat/Bass and Dalembert, but a trade exception would potentially be almost as valuable.
BARGNANI (Trade)
No surprise here. Unless you’ve got specific types of players that can cover Bargnani’s weaknesses, he’s going to hurt your team. The Raptors have none and I’m not high on his skill set enough to want to build around him.
I believe this is the best time to trade him. He still got that “upside” label and skills that some GMs covet. I think if he’s forced to be the first option on the Raptors this year, his fatal flaws will be highlighted and he’ll be less attractive as an asset. Basically, if he doesn’t fulfill his potential this season, it’s fair to say he never will, and I really don’t think he’s going to fulfill his potential. By trading him this summer, you’re trading him at a high.
I don’t think a lot of teams will be clamouring for his services because his skills are so unique. He’s not a big man who is going to play great defense or rebound, which is what most teams want out of their big men.
Minnesota
The first trading partner I would look at is Minnesota. The T-Wolves started Darko, instead of the more talented Love with Jefferson because they want Jefferson to play at his more natural position of PF and because Darko can play on the perimeter, leaving the inside to Jefferson. On offense, Bargnani would be a perfect pairing for Jefferson. Defense is another story, but we’ll let Minnesota worry about that.
The player I would covet the most would be Ricky Rubio. He would be that elite PG the Raptors have not had since Stoudamire. He would most likely want to go to Toronto and is a player the city should fall in love with. And he’s a winner. The Raptors might have to wait a year before he would suit up, but that would give them a year to rebuild.
If they don’t want to part with Rubio, Kevin Love would be another target. He’s apparently available despite the fact that I think he’s going to be a better player than Jefferson. He rebounds, shoots, defends and is a high IQ player. If Bosh leaves, he’d certainly make the locals (and team) miss him less).
Barring getting either Rubio or Love, I’d be happy getting their 4th pick, especially if Derrick Favors falls there, which there is now a possibility happening, apparently.
Golden State
Bargnani seems to me to be the exact type of player the Warriors like. If they would part with Biedrins and their 6th pick in the draft, I’d be happy. Biedrins would be that rebounding and shot blocking center the Raptors have lacked, and with the 6th pick, the Raptors could grab Al-Farouq Amin or Ed Davis who would fill big needs for the Raptors.
Philadelphia
Now, I have no clue as to whether Philadelphia would want Bargnani, but if they do, they have a few assets I’d focus on. If the rumour is true that they would give away the 2nd pick in exchange for taking Brand, they might agree to take Bargnani and someone like Evans for Brand and the 2nd. Personally, I doubt it, though. Still, I’d take Iguodala for him if they do it. Iguodala would give the Raptors a veteran swingman who is still fairly young and could be paired with DeRozan and/or Weems.
Other teams might include Chicago, Phoenix, New Jersey and New York.
CALDERON (Keep)
Believe it or not, I would keep Calderon. I think he’s far more valuable to the team than as a trade asset at this point. His stock is pretty low at the moment, and if he can have a good year, his stock will go up. If he has another similar year, I really don’t think his stock will go down much. Might as well take a gamble. He does help the team and if you can improve the overall defense of the team, he’s going to look that much better.
JACK (Trade)
I like Jack, but he’s a good young player with an affordable contract, so he’s a valuable asset that might be better off being traded for something more in need. On a team with so many holes, having two good PGs is a luxury. He could be included in a Turkoglu or Bargnani deal, or perhaps with another player on on his own. Because he can start or come off the bench, just about any team could use his services.
WEEMS (Keep or Trade)
I’d much rather keep him, but because of DeRozan, he’s almost a redundancy and if including him in a deal would improve the team, you have to do it.
JOHNSON (Re-sign)
With the likelihood Bosh will leave, re-signing Amir is important. He rebounds, hustles and is only 23. I think if you offer him $5 million, he’ll be back and you won’t be overpaying him.
BELINELLI (Keep)
He didn’t perform as many hoped, but he’s still extremely talented and still young. He’s another guy who you don’t want to sell low, so it’s best to keep him and see if he can fulfill some of that potential.
EVANS (Trade or Keep)
He’s more valuable as expiring fodder in a trade than anything he brings to the team. Still, if he returns he’s at least enthusiastic, so I wouldn’t be disappointed.
BANKS (Trade or Keep)
See Evans, plus it’s nice to have a half decent backup PG at the end of the bench who can actually play.
So there are quite a few trades I think can improve the team. I think Colangelo needs burn up the phone lines on draft day, since many of these trades would include draft picks.
Tomorrow is Draft Day, so I’m going to look more closely at the actual draft.
One Last Gasp (and some rambling)
Posted on | April 12, 2010 | 7 Comments
Well, after a thoroughly embarrassing loss against Chicago, the Raptors almost redeem themselves by soundly beating Detroit, a team that has only won 26 games this year. If they can beat New York , a team that has only won 29 games, then Chicago will need to beat both Boston and Charlotte to beat Toronto for the final playoff spot.
In the game against Chicago, Boston has nothing to play for, but at least it’s not their last game of the season. If they were going to take the night off, I can see that being the one, the second night of a meaningless back-to-back.
Charlotte has played very well at home this year, and their only win against Chicago this season came at home. They still conceivably leapfrog Milwaukee in the standings, so they’ll probably be tough to beat.
That’s all good news for the Raptors, but one thing I’ve learned this season is never be too optimistic, or reality will throw you against a wall, rip your pants down, do it’s impression of a Catholic priest and kick you in the groin for good measure. Metaphorically speaking. Still, there is reason for hope, if not optimism.
Back to the Detroit game, though.
So Bargnani has something like his best game of the season and even chips in 7 rebounds. Of course, he only got to the line twice with 22 shot attempts. That’s a FT/FG ratio of .091 (Read this post if you want to understand what I am talking about). Still, 33 points is 33 points. If he can play like this against New York and then (if the Raptors make the playoffs) against Cleveland, will that make it easier to trade him? Of course, if that happens, does that give Colangelo a reason NOT to trade him?
Amir Johnson had fewer rebounds than assists, shot 6-7 from the line (where he’s shooting .607 this season), and outscored every Piston, including their prized free agent signing, Ben Gordon. You think Amir wanted to show the Pistons they made a mistake when they dumped him so they could open up some salary cap room?
Speaking of the Pistons free agent signings, their other prized one, Charlie Villanueva, who many Raptor fans bizarrely still pine after, apparently “guaranteed” a victory over the Raptors on Twitter. My head is close to exploding with the number of things I want to say about this. Are free agent busts of 26 win teams really guaranteeing meaningless wins now? Is this what the NBA has come to? Actually, I think this is yet another reason why this whole Twitter thing is immensely stupid. I don’t know which is sadder, that people are actually publicizing the minutia of their daily life and turning it into digital diarrhea, or that people actually are interested enough to take time out of their day to read it. CHARLIE! SHUT THE F**K UP!
Remember when Joe Dumars was considered one of the best GMs in the league? I, for one, felt he was overrated and basically fell into a Championship when Atlanta gave Rasheed to the Pistons. Reader, and fellow blogger, recently argued that any GM who has one a Championship is a great GM. I think Dumars disproves that. The Ben Gordon and Charlie Vilanueva signings have to go down as some of the most wasted cap space in recent memory. Think Dumars is regretting not holding off until this summer, when there are actually going to be some free agents worth signing, available? At the beginning of the season, I predicted Detroit would have to rebuild, and boy do they. He should have traded Prince and Hamilton last summer, back when they had way more value, and probably should have held onto Amir. Personally, I’d rather have Amir at $3.9 million for one season than Villanueva at $6.5 to $8.5 million for five years. Right now, they’re a fairly old team with a few mediocre young players. And absolutely no identity.
Back to Villanueva. Back when he was playing for the Raptors, I argued with other fans that he would never become a great scorer because he couldn’t get to the line. It’s then when I came up with my FT/FG ratio. Well, this season he averaged an anemic .150 FT/FG ratio. With his mediocre rebounding, horrible defense and penchant for chucking up threes, no matter what his percentage was, he would have fit in nicely with the Raptors. Oh, I forgot, Toronto’s already got one of those players.
OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS
Talk about peaking at the right time. When the All-Star break hit, Miami was a struggling team that looked like it would be lucky if it made it to .500 and were in a battle with Milwaukee for the 8th spot in the East. Meanwhile, the Raptors looked to be locked in the 5th seed and were cruising to a 45 win season. Two months later, and the two have switched places. Miami just hit 45 wins and are sitting in the 5th spot. Toronto won’t make .500 and will be lucky to make the playoffs.
AN EXTENSION? REALLY?
So Zach Randolph, having the most successful year of his career, is asking for an extension. Sure, Memphis missed out on the playoffs (again), but Randolph made his first All-Star game and set a record with the most consecutive games without a complaint about him. Maybe he has smartened up. Then again, he’s claiming that he should make what Pau Gasol is going to make for his extension. His thinking is that Gasol and he signed their contracts at the same time and for about the same amount. Apparently he doesn’t take into consideration that Gasol is a much better player.
Let’s keep things in perspective here. While Randolph played well, he led a team with three other very good players (Gay, Mayo and the other Gasol) to 40 wins. If Bosh had that supporting cast, the Raptors might very well have home court in the playoffs.
SPEAKING OF DUMB IDEAS
Apparently Richard Jefferson is pondering whether, after the most disappointing season of his career, to leave $15 million on the table and opt out of his contract. Think the Spurs will be trying to talk him out of it? Think, if he does, they might regret extending Ginobili’s contract? Without his salary (and without Jefferson’s), the Spurs would have been approximately $15 million under the cap this summer.
HIGH EXPECTATIONS
I know the Spurs will likely finish with the worst record since Tim Duncan came into the league and are currently sitting in the 7th spot in the West, their worst seed since Duncan was drafted, but keep in mind that they will once again win 50 games for the 12th time in 13 years (the year they didn’t was the lock-out shortened season). Wouldn’t it be nice to be disappointed with 50 wins?
You think Dallas really wants to play them in the first round?
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