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Whispering in Colangelo’s Ear (Offseason Strategy)
Posted on | June 17, 2010 | 11 Comments
Blogger’s Note: The the Lakers win another Championship and yet another prediction doesn’t come to fruition. Did anyone else notice that whenever anyone made a prediction during the playoffs this year, it didn’t once come true? Steve Nash predicted the Suns would push the Lakers to 7 games. Didn’t come true. Paul Pierce predicted the Celtics wouldn’t return to L.A.. They did. Glen Davis predicted the Celtics would win game 7 and the title. They didn’t. Maybe it was just that no predictions involving opponents of the Lakers ever came true.
So does that mean that the Lakers AREN’T going to be looking at obtaining Bosh this summer? Does anyone remember anything good Bynum did on the court in game 7? Yes, I know he’s injured, but it’s not as if trading him away is going to take an important piece of the Championship team away.
Look at it this way, if the Lakers had Bosh, do you think the series would have gone 7 games?
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It’s no secret that things need to be done in Raptorland. The team is at a crossroads like never before in their history. If Bosh leaves, this October will mark the first time in franchise history the team will start the season without a real #1 option (I hesitate to use the term “franchise player”). It started off with Stoudamire who, while not really a franchise player, did embrace the role of lead player from the start. He was traded and the next year they had Vince. When Vince left, they had Bosh. Some may say that Bargnani is that man, but those who do haven’t read my previous posts on the matter. You can’t have a number one option that can’t create his own shot, either off the dribble, in the post or moving without the ball, none of which Bargnani does well.
So without someone to replace Bosh, the strategy should be to keep him, right?
Not exactly.
That’s not to say that I think it’s time to let Bosh go. I think people who say this are either incredibly short-sighted or overly bitter, or both. It’s true that the Raptors have had little success with Bosh. In fact, Tom Haberstroh at ESPN Insider recently wrote a piece talking about how Bosh can’t be the number one guy. He discussed how Amare and Boozer both got to the Conference Finals with Hall of Fame calibre PGs. Yes, it’s true.
Fact 1: Bosh has never even been able to lead his team to the second round and only to the playoffs twice in seven years.
Fact 2: Bosh is not in the same class as Kobe, Wade or LeBron. There’s no denying that.
People will mistake the above two facts as reasons why the Raptors need to get rid of Bosh. I recently heard that the analogy of building a house. You start with the the foundation and build up. Bosh is a wall and having the wall before the foundation prevents you from building. Now I love analogies as much as the next person, but this is just plain stupid. First of all, a team is not a building, it’s a team. And the aim is to get the best players you can who can fit together best, in any order you can get them.
Let me use another analogy. Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. You don’t get rid of your best player because he wasn’t good enough to lead your team anywhere. You try and get more talent so the fact that he’s a top 15 player and not a top 5 player doesn’t matter. Hell, neither Shaq nor Tim Duncan won anything without at least one All NBA calibre player around them.
So after all that, it doesn’t quite explain my strategy, does it?
You see, while I do want the Raptors to re-sign Bosh, I think doing what he wants is the wrong strategy. If the Raptors number one strategy is to keep Bosh, they should trade their young players for more established players.
The problem with this strategy is that it’s incredibly risky. If the Raptors trade away their young players and end up with, say, Andre Iguodala and Caron Butler, that makes a great team if Bosh stays, but yet another mediocre team if he leaves, and without young players around to give hope for the future.
What the Raptors SHOULD do is assume that Bosh is leaving, but hope he likes what he sees and re-signs.
Aren’t these two completely opposing strategies? Not really. I don’t think anyone would argue against the fact that the Raptors need to make fundamental changes. They didn’t lose games because they lacked talent. They lost games because they were a poorly constructed team. They obviously need to make a lot of changes whether or not Bosh leaves. It’s just a question of which ones.
So if we are going to assume Bosh is going to leave, what should the Raptors do? Well, first of all, the team is not going to compete, so trying to get veteran players who are going to win a few more games now, but not help the team in the long run, is pointless. I’m all for getting someone like Iguodala still, but I’m not going to give up DeRozan for him now like I would have before the trade deadline.
There’s a believe that the Raptors cannot rebuild, for fear of alienating their fanbase. After what has been basically 8 years of rebuilding, asking them to wait a few more might be too much. The problem with that strategy is that it seems to ignore the failure of attempting just that strategy four years ago and then this past year. Neither time worked out well. Is that what you want to give the fans?
I believe that fans will be fine with rebuilding, as long as they see progress, and the team they watch puts out an honest effort. As long as the team has young players with potential who work hard on the floor, you can buy yourself time. And that’s what the Raptors need.
Next up: My advice for the draft.
Well, That Can’t Be Good
Posted on | April 13, 2010 | No Comments
So the Bulls, who had lost to the Nets just a few days before, beat the full-strength Celtics in a game they needed to win. So it all comes down to Wednesday night. If the Raptors lose against the Knicks, they’re out, plain and simple. If The Raptors win, and the Bulls lose against Charlotte, then the Raptors sneak into the playoffs. Amazing that you go 81 games and it all comes down to the last one.
Will the Bulls playing a back-to-back game hurt them? Can Rose repeat his dominating performance? Will Larry Brown stay true to his word and make a game of it against the Bulls?
AND THE NEXT COACH OF THE BOBCATS WILL BE….
Was anyone else surprised to find out that Larry Brown will be looking for a new address next season (or at least likely will)? Generally, when an owner gives permission for a coach to look elsewhere, he’s gone. Despite Brown being a basketball gypsy, I kind of felt that he was in Charlotte for the long haul. Now, apparently, he’s not.
It did cross my mind WHY he’s decided to leave.
And if it’s a choice between the Sixers and Clippers, then I’d stay there UNLESS Donald Sterling sells the team. Philly is not in a good position, and any team owned by Sterling has no karmic chance in hell of not being a disaster.
I joked with a friend a few weeks ago that, after watching Jordan be so involved on the sidelines, I can see Jordan taking over as coach when Brown leaves. It’s the only thing he hasn’t done. Is there any rule against it? Am I the only one who sees that coming?
WEIGHTWATCHERS
I read that Shaq lost 20 points while out with his injury. So THAT’S what it finally took for him to lose weight? Have him break his hand? You think Phil Jackson, who pleaded with Shaq for years to lose weight, shook his head after reading that?
Shaq did get what he seems to want so often, and that’s time off during the season. The guy doesn’t even seem to want to play anymore, and I don’t think he’s ever really had a love for the game. I think the only reason he stays in the league (apart from the money) is the attention he gets. Has any player ever craved more attention than Shaq does?
NO BRAINER
Did we really have to have news that Jason Kapono would be picking up his player option for next season, where he’ll be making somewhere in the vicinity of $60 billion dollars? Why don’t we get headlines like “Sun likely to rise in East tomorrow!”?
In similar news, and proving once again that the majority of players care more about money than basketball, TJ Ford is not opting out of his contract, despite falling out of the rotation for a good portion of the season. Instead of looking for a better basketball situation, where he might be more valuable, Ford decides to take the money. Why am I not shocked?
WHERE’S THE LOVE?
Darko Milicic, who at one point in the season, actually had his plane tickets back to Euroleague booked, has softened his stance, and stated that he and Al Jefferson work very well together and make each other better. What does this mean for Kevin Love, who started coming off the bench after Milicic came to town. Am I the only one who would rather have Kevin Love and his rebounding and high basketball IQ than either of those two guys? You think Colangelo can get him? Please?
The Trading Post
Posted on | February 16, 2010 | 1 Comment
When I worked at EA Sports a number of years ago, I was involved heavily in `Franchise Mode’. It was a natural fit for me and I loved it. Though gameplay was fun, it was managing the roster that I found the most fun. Making trades, drafting etc. What the game never achieved, however, was the hype surrounding this time of year in the NBA. I know I should probably take Doug Smith’s tact and hate this time of year because it’s not about the game, and involves innuendo and rumours, the bane of his existence, but I can’t help it. It’s fun.
Yes, it can be fun for the fan, but for the players it must be torture. Imagine you’re busy going about your job when you keep hearing your name popping up in rumoured transfers to other branches in different cities. It must be difficult.
So with all due respect to the players, this post is dedicated to discussing every rumoured deal, and maybe proposing a new one or two. There are simply too many deals to discuss every single one, so I’ll focus on a few that seem to have legs. First off, though, I’m going to look at Toronto’s situation.
TORONTO
For the first time in a while, the Raptors are virtually a non-entity on the trade rumour mill. It’s a good sign. Making a deal might end up backfiring for the Raptors, unless it seriously upgrades their talent level. Still, there are a couple of moves they could make that might improve them.
Andre Igoudala for Demar DeRozan, Amir Johnson and Marcus Banks
In an earlier post, I proposed including Calderon in a trade for Iguodala, in this one, he’s not included, but Philly gets more salary relief. Banks’ contract isn’t great, but it’s 3 years less than Iguodala’s. Including Amir gives them another young prospect, as well as an expiring contract. Obviously Iguodala would be a great fit for the Raptors, and might be enough to entice Bosh to re-sign.
Andris Biedrins for Amir Johnson and Marcus Banks
While Amir Johnson is having a great season for the Raptors, and fills a need, the fact that he’s a free agent this summer makes it a real possibility he won’t be back. Why not use his expiring contract to try and get something in return. Biedrins is underutilized in Golden State and overpaid, but his rebounding, shot blocking and mobility would be a great replacement for Johnson, and the fact that he’s got a long term contract means that he’ll be around for a while. The biggest plus, though, would be that he would be a better insurance policy for Bosh than Johnson.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Antawn Jamison for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Antawn Jamison is the perfect PF on the market to play with LeBron. He can score outside and inside, and would more than likely get them to the Finals. On the downside, he’s 33, so you’ve got to question how much longer he can play at such a high level. With LeBron not even being 25, the best way to keep him around is to surround him with guys who will be around for a while. Of course, Washington apparently doesn’t want to deal with Cleveland because of the history between them.
Amare Soudemire for J.J. Hickson, Z. Ilguaskas and Jamario Moon (or someone like him)
This would be the trade that would bring the best player, and since he’s indicated he won’t opt out, he’ll probably be with the team for at least another season and would be a huge enticement for LeBron to re-sign. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’s a good fit, and I think he might not like to be LeBron’s second fiddle. On the court, the Cavs currently have LeBron and Shaq to play inside, and I don’t see there being much room down there. Add Stoudamire, and if these guys don’t bump into each other, I’d be surprised. There are also conflicting reports that he my not want to be traded to Cleveland.
Phoenix would be getting Hickson, who is a talented, young big man, as well as Iguaskas’ expiring contract. If I was Phoenix, I’d keep looking.
Troy Murphy for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Troy Murphy might be the best PF for the Cavs to trade for. He’s younger than Jamison and a better outside shooter than Stoudemire. Plus he’s a better rebounder than either of them. I also think he might be cheaper to trade for. He’s the least sexy option, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this is who they end up getting.
A salary dump for Indiana, plus they get a good young prospect in Hickson. This might be the best deal out there and the best chance to rid themselves of Murphy’s contract. On the plus side, it opens up playing time for rookie Tyler Hansbridge.
Corey Maggette and Raja Bell for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Now, I haven’t actually heard Bell’s name in any proposed deal, but it works and makes sense. Maggette is having possibly his best year as a pro, and he’s probably more what Cleveland needs. He’s that second scorer that Mo Williams and Shaq simply aren’t. With both him and LeBron on the floor together, opposing teams couldn’t have a weak defender defending Maggette, as they can with Parker. If I was Cleveland, this might be my first choice of the rumoured deals.
Another salary dump, and considering that no one wanted to touch Maggette a year ago, getting Hickson might be a huge bonus. Golden State has too many wing players, too many scorers and not enough healthy PFs. This is a no brainer, in my opinion.
Now, I have only heard Stoudemire’s name, and no one from Miami, so this is purely conjecture. It would completely kill any cap room they would have this summer, but the question is, would they be able to get anyone better than these two? A lineup of Amare, Beasley, Richardson (either Jason or Quentin) and Wade would be pretty offensively potent. The rim would certainly get a workout. I don’t know how good they’d be defensively, though. Possibly even worse than the Raptors.
The latest rumour is that Miami is looking for a third team to trade with, which makes sense, because I don’t see the above trade going down. Despite their desire for Stoudemire, the only thing they really have of any value they are apparently willing to trade is O’Neal and his expiring contract. I’d be surprised if Amare lands in Miami because apart from the above deal, where they get rid of all but Nash’s big contract, there’s nothing Miami has that the Suns would want.
Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert for Tracy McGrady
I don’t know who’s reluctant to make this deal, but it had better be Philadelphia. I know Houston would be taking back salary, and Dalembert would have to move to the bench when Yao returned, but how could you not do this deal? Adding Iguodala to Ariza and Battier would be potent, and having Dalembert would allow Yao to play limited minutes, possibly extending his career. Quite frankly, I think Philadelphia might be looking for a little more than McGrady for Iguodala, and so they should.
Jordan Hill, Jarred Jeffries and Larry Hughes for Tracy McGrady
This is the latest rumour and it makes a little more sense for both teams. Houston gets New Yorks 2009 lottery pick, Jordan Hill and Hughes’ expiring contract, so they still save money. New York gets more cap space and can try McGrady out for a couple of months. If I was Houston, though, I’d ask for a draft pick as well.
Marcus Camby for Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake
Injuries have really hurt Portland’s chances this year, and this trade highlights just how much. Outlaw and Blake are valuable, but they’re free agents this summer, and might not want to re-sign onto Portland’s loaded roster. Camby gives them a real center so they can remain competitive the rest of the season. The Clippers get a good backup for the rest of the season and maybe re-sign outlaw, who could end up starting for the Clippers, when healthy. Really, it’s a short term deal for both, but Portland has the chance to benefit the most. If I were the Clippers, I’d try and get more for Camby and his expiring contract.
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Those are the main rumoured trades around the league, at least ones that I see even remotely happening. Here are a few that I think make sense, but I haven’t heard mentioned.
Mike Miller and Fabricio Oberto for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
This is one I haven’t heard, and considering Washington’s feelings about dealing with Cleveland, probably wouldn’t happen. It is probably the best deal Cleveland could do, however. Miller is the outside shooter and scoring threat the Cavs need at the wing position, and while Oberto’s best days are behind him, and hasn’t been playing much in Washington, he’s got playoff experience with the Spurs, which looks good on anyone’s resume. Besides, he’d only be needed to play a few minutes here and there.
Mike Miller was traded for when it looked like the Wizards might be a playoff team. They are not. Getting Hickson would be a plus. In the end, it’s a low risk deal that makes sense for both teams.
Kirk Hinrich and Jannero Pargo for Sacha Vujacic, Adam Morrison and Jordan Farmar
The Bulls want to clear more cap room to try and get a big free agent, and the Lakers weakest position is PG. Hinrich is made for the triangle offense and would become their best PG. He doesn’t need to handle the ball to be effective but is a better passer than any of the present Laker PGs, is a very good defender and has lots of playoff experience. The Bulls clear cap room, but also get a couple of nice, young bench players.
Amare Stoudemire for Tyrus Thomas and Brad Miller
I know the Bulls are hoping for Wade to sign, but that’s unlikely, and what they need more than anything is an inside scorer. They discussed trading for Amare last season, but nothing happened. He’s now healthy and would give the Bulls another scorer, which they have lacked. Tyrus Thomas has struggled in his time in Chicago, but he’s not made for that kind of ball. If anyone would benefit from playing with Nash, Thomas would. If the Suns do trade Amare, I think Thomas is the best prospect they could get for him. Miller’s expiring contract means it’s basically Amare for Thomas, which, considering the circumstances makes sense.
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Now, although Orlando has not really been mentioned in any trade talk, I think they need to make some sort of deal. The only reason they beat Cleveland last year is because they matched up well against them, but this year that isn’t so. Trading for Vince hasn’t worked out as well as they hoped, and could use a creative wing player who can do what Turkoglu did, which be the initiator. The player who would be absolutely perfect would have been Iguodala, but Orlando has absolutely no pieces that Philadelphia would want. That might mean bringing a third team into it, but I can’t see who.
Boston’s window is closing, if it isn’t already closed. Danny Ainge has to figure out if the team is still a contender, and may want to use Ray Allen’s expiring contract to get younger.
Minnesota is apparently interested in Tyrus Thomas, but I don’t know who they want to send back in return. The question is, why on earth would they want Thomas? Thinking about it, though, it makes perfect sense. They drafted two starting PGs in the last draft, so might as well deal for another PF when their two best players are PFs. They’re very big on redundancy in Minnesota, and if the GM continues to make moves that don’t quite make sense, he’s going to find himself redundant.
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