(If you haven’t read the first and second parts, please do, as this post will make a lot more sense if you do)

So in parts 1 and 2, we looked at the 16 year history of the Raptors organization that seemed to be so focused on not losing that it couldn’t manage to actually win, very much. The Raptors have spent nearly their entire existence on the mediocrity treadmill. For an NBA team and it’s fans, that’s basically hell.

So now we turn our attention to a few other franchises, and see what they’ve done.

CLEVELAND FLIRTS WITH A CHAMPIONSHIP

When Cleveland drafted LeBron James, it was probably the greatest turning point in their entire existence. Except for a brief period in the 90′s, the Cavaliers were synonymous with poor management and losing.

When LeBron was drafted, the Cavs roster was made up of a collection of mediocre veterans and a few promising youngsters (Carlos Boozer, Ricky Davis, Darius Miles). the promising, but flawed, youngsters were traded away or left, and in their place came veterans who could help the team immediately.

While they were able to acquire Anderson Varejao, the majority of the moves the Cavs made were either forgettable or one you’d rather forget (trading a first round pick for Jiri Welsch in February and then turning around and trading Welsch for a 2nd round pick- turning a 1st round pick into a second in a matter of months!). Still the team went from 17 wins the season before LeBron, to 35 and then 42 wins. It was obvious this team was on it’s way up.

When Danny Ferry was hired as the Cavs GM, in 2005, he made an immediate splash, signing volume scorer, the 27 year old Larry Hughes to a massive contract, and 32 year old Donyell Marshall (from the Raptors). At that point, of the 8 players that played the most minutes, only 2 were below the age of 26. They did go out and win 50 games and get to the second round of the playoffs, though.

The next season, with Danny Ferry basically standing pat with the roster, the team went out and won 50 games again, this time getting all the way to the Finals. Despite the success in the playoffs, the Cavs didn’t carry over the momentum to the regular season and Ferry decided to shake things up, trading away almost half the roster, and grabbing among others, 33 year old Ben Wallace and 32 year old Joe Smith. The team ended up winning just 45 games and losing again in the second round.

Probably the best move Danny Ferry made as GM, was when he turned Joe Smith into Mo Williams. It was one of the few times that Ferry attempted to make the team younger. And somehow, the Cavs gelled and ended up destroying the league in the regular season, winning 66 games. But then the playoffs came and they got bounced in the Conference Finals by Orlando.

So Ferry pulled the trigger on a trade that sent Ben Wallace to the Suns for Shaquille O’Neal. It was an act of desperation for the Cavs, who felt that winning a Championship was the only way to keep LeBron, who was in the last year of his contract. They then used a good portion of their MLE to sign 34 year old Anthony Parker, and then went out and traded for 33 year old Antawn Jamison. By season’s end, the Cavs had 3 starters who were 33, 34 and 37 and whose best years were well behind them.

Is it any wonder that when LeBron decided to abandon the team, they ended up winning only 19 games the next season?

While the Cavs ended up finding much more success than the Raptors did, using a similar plan, that was mostly due to the fact that LeBron was simply much better than Vince Carter ever was.  And the results ended up being the same. An unsustainable climb by acquiring aging veterans whose stock can only decline.

Like the Raptors, the Cavs had to start making riskier and riskier moves, acquiring older and older players, because when you keep acquiring declining assets, you lose more and more leverage. And just like the Raptors, right near the end they took a risk on an aging Hall of Fame center whose best years were behind him.

OKLAHOMA DECIDES TO GO YOUNG

The Thunder are probably one of the most discussed teams, in terms of building through the draft with youth, but quite frankly, that’s because they’ve done a textbook-like job.

When Sam Presti took over the then Seattle Supersonics, they had just come off a 31 win season, had two 20+ppg All-Stars on the roster, some half decent young talent and a number 2 pick in the draft. After drafting 19 year old Kevin Durant, Presti made a choice that was basically the complete opposite of what the Raptors and Cleveland had done. Keeping former All-Stars, Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen would certainly have made the team competitive, possibly even a playoff team with a move or two, Presti wisely decided that at ages 27 and 31, Lewis and Allen were declining assets who would probably be too old to help the team when Durant was entering his prime.

Presti first traded Allen for 5th pick, Jeff Green, as well as Wally Szczerbiak and his expiring contract, and Delonte West, both of whom were ironically traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers just one season later. Then Presti decided not to match Orlando’s massive contract offer for Lewis, leaving the team without their two best players in a matter of days.

Instead of surrounding Durant with veterans, which would have speeded up the team’s development, but limited it’s growth, Presti preached patience, and decided to surround their new franchise player with players his own age, allowing them to grow and develop together. While it meant the team was actually worse the next season, winning just 20 games, they were also able to pick up future All-Star, Russell Westbrook in the next draft. They improved only slightly the next season, again, giving them a top 3 pick, grabbing James Harden.

In just three seasons, the Sonics/Thunder were able to acquire three top 5 picks and the very next season they jumped from 23 wins to 50 wins. They never added one major veteran over the age of 25 and by the time they win 50 games, they only had two rotation players over the age of 25- 26 year old Nenad Krstic, who signed the previous season, and 29 year old Nick Collison, who was the only holdover from the pre-Presti era.

And with a starting of with an average age of just 23 years old, the Oklahoma City Thunder won 55 games last season on their way to a Conference Finals appearance. And it’s certainly not inconceivable that, as long as they are able to keep their core together, the Thunder will be contenders for the next 10 years.

If the Thunder had kept Allen and Lewis, the team would already be trying to figure out how to replace them.

CLIPPERS (MIS)MANAGEMENT

One of the most common arguments again “tanking” is that you don’t want to end up like the Los Angeles Clippers. Of course, that argument may not work anymore, after trading for Chris Paul, but it never really worked anyway.

The problem with the Clippers was not that they were always trying to lose and get high draft picks, it’s that they were simply badly mismanaged and drafted poorly when they got to the draft.

If the Cleveland Cavaliers were synonymous with poor management and losing, the Clippers made them look good.

In their 47 year history, the Clippers have made the playoffs just 7 times. That’s just 2 more than the Raptors, in nearly 3 times the amount of time. To the Clippers, mediocrity would have been a step up. In the last 30 years, the Clippers have drafted in the top ten 23 times. They’ve had a top 5 pick 13 times. Yet, somehow in all that time, they only managed to draft 3 All Stars. Actually, that’s not entirely true. They drafted five All-Stars, but traded away two of them before they became All-Stars. You could probably manage a better drafting record than them by throwing darts at a board. I could probably write and entire post devoted to their poor drafting.

So needless to say, the Clippers have not been successful, but that turned around in the last few years, when they drafted Eric Gordon and then got the 1st pick in the draft the next year and took Blake Griffin. Unlike previous eras, when young players were traded away for veterans either past their prime or who never had one, the Clippers actually started stockpiling their young talent.

While Griffin and Gordon are definitely stars, there’s a question of whether either are the type of elite talent that can lead a team to a Championship. Thankfully, that doesn’t matter since they were able to use their stockpile of youth and Chris Kaman’s expiring contract, to trade for Chris Paul.

Now, what is the difference between what Cleveland and Toronto did and what the Clippers did? There are a couple.

First is that Paul is only 26 years old. He’s not a 31 year old athletic wing player or 33 year old big man.

Secondly, and most importantly, Paul IS their franchise player now. Griffin is a great talent, he’s not the type to make those around him better. He’s not a good passer or stellar defender and most of his scoring is done by being more athletic than his opponent. He is much more suited to a complimentary role, and with Paul running the point, he can now do that.

Without Chris Paul, the Clippers probably had a ceiling similar to the Atlanta Hawks- the second round. The number of teams without a top 10 player on it that have been a true contender, in the last 20-30 years you can count on one hand. And now the Clippers have that.

SO WHAT TO DO?

So this brings us back to the Raptors and this season.

Now there is a portion of Raptor fans who hate to see the Raptors lose intentionally and that nothing good ever comes from tanking. Well, first of all, I don’t think anyone is suggesting the team actually “tank”. That would involve trading away the team’s best players and not giving the team a shot to even be competitive in games. Cleveland and Denver did that and all it got them were LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony. Er…nevermind.

The Raptors currently have the talent to vie for the top spot in the NBA….draft. So the best thing that Colangelo can do, and seems to be doing, is to just let them play. Don’t try to win a few more games just to make the team look slightly better. In the end that gets you nothing but what Raptor fans have had to put up with for the past 16 years. Mediocrity, at best.

The few more wins that a Tyson Chandler or even a Shane Battier might get you may be the difference between a top 3 pick and yet another good, but not great, draft pick. As 82Games.com showed, there’s a big dropoff after the fifth pick.

When you’re walking the line between mediocrity and being a contender, the difference might be just a few ping pong balls.

Now as I mentioned in the first post, PhDSteve, over at Raptors Republic argued in his latest podcast that it doesn’t really matter where the Raptors pick because there’s no real consensus #1 and the Raptors can get a good PG later in the draft.

That would make sense if the Raptors biggest need is a PG. It isn’t. The Raptors biggest need, far outweighing any position or skill, is a franchise player. Who cares if the Raptors get the best PG in the draft if they still don’t have a franchise player. In the NBA, teams generally only go as far as their best player can take them. Atlanta’s problem is not that they don’t have a good team. It’s that Joe Johnson is a perennial All-Star, but not a truly elite player.

In fact, Toronto’s history shows the limitations teams have without truly elite players. While Vince had the potential to be one of the greats, he never fulfilled that potential and the farthest the team could get with him was the second round. Bosh was a perennial All-Star, but simply not the type of talent that can lift a team above mediocrity.

While there might not be any sure-fire Hall of Famers, like Tim Duncans or LeBron James’, there are still a few potential franchise players in this draft. Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond , Perry Jones and Harrison Barnes have been the most talked about (although I personally am not sure Barnes has any elite skill that would allow him to be a franchise player), but Quincy Miller and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist also have some potential. That’s six players, but most likely half are not going to fulfill that potential, so getting first crack is all the more important.

IN CONCLUSION

While pushing towin as many games as you can might seem like a good idea, if your goal is to compete for an NBA Championship, it’s simply not always a sound strategy. While getting one of the worst records in the league certainly is no guarantee of a top 3 pick, it gives you the best chance. It’s been said that the best thing for these young players on the Raptors is to start trying to compete now, but without a franchise player, exactly what would they be competing for? More of what we’ve seen over the last 16 years. And that’s simply not good enough.

TORONTO: Exceeds Expectations

5. Jonas Valanciunas

It’s deja vu all over again. Last year, a team above them unexpectedly took an athletic defensive power forward which resulted in a higher ranked big man unexpectedly falling to the Raptors. Colangelo and the Raptors brass probably can’t believe their luck. I was afraid they might still take Knight, but Colangelo showed he is indeed focused on the future, rather than the present.

Valanciunas will fill the void at center the Raptors have been lacking for, well, ever. While apparently a lot of Raptor fans are unhappy with the pick, I think they’ll eventually regret that as Valanciunas is the type of player that Raptor fans love. He’s a high energy player who hustles, defends and rebounds. English, though, is not his strong suit.

On the other hand, the pick they got from the Heat, which they traded to the Bulls for James Johnson, could have been used to pick Corey Joseph at 28, who went one spot later to the Spurs. Who knows if that’s who Colangelo would have picked, as he was projected to go in the second round, but I’ll certainly be comparing their careers. And since the Spurs are pretty much never wrong…

I would have liked to see them try and scoop up another pick, but it’s not a big deal that they didn’t.

SAN ANTONIO: Exceeds Expectations

29. Cory Joseph

Traded George Hill for Indiana’s 15th pick, Kawhi Leonard.

I assumed the Spurs would exceed expectations, and again they have. Trading for Leonard is huge, especially since he was projected to go in the top ten and dropped. He’s the type of defender than the Spurs love, is in the perfect situation, and should step in Bruce Bowen’s shoes, that have been empty for a few years.

If on of my sleepers, Toronto’s Cory Joseph couldn’t get drafted by the Raptors, then the Spurs would have been my second choice. And it’s incredible timing because they might have their replacement for Hill. Yes, he projected to go in the second round, but I think he has first round talent and so, apparently, do the Spurs.haunt them. Burks should be a decent player, but guys like him are a dime a dozen.

CHARLOTTE: Exceeds Expectations

7. Bismack Biyombo
9. Kemba Walker

Traded Stephen Jackson for Sacramento’s 7th pick and Corey Maggette.

Sold 39th pick, Jeremy Tyler to Golden State, I’m guessing for cash.

It hurts to say it, but Charlotte actually did well. I was surprised that they passed on Knight for Biyombo, as they’ve been looking for a real starting PG for, well, their entire existence, but they resisted temptation and went with a guy who I think will be better down the road. I also look forward to watching Biyombo and Tyrus Thomas being on the floor at the same time. The front row needs to watch out.

Maggette was a disaster in Milwaukee and now brings his brand of scoring and no defense to Charlotte. He’s probably going to lose games for them, but that’s kind of what they wanted, so maybe it’s a good thing?

Walker fell, but not as far as I thought he might. I think it’s still a pretty good pick at 9, but Charlotte seems to like picking decent PGs with little upside.

CHICAGO: Exceeds Expectations

23. Nikola Mirotic
30. Jimmy Butler

Traded 28th and 43rd picks for Houstons 23rd pick, Nikola Mirotic.

Butler was very efficient offensively at Butler, and is a very good defender, so the Bulls may have a sleeper on their hands.

How much do you think the Spurs are pissed at not getting Mirotic, who is exactly the type of player they usually scoop up at the end up the first round? He’s a huge steal, but will play overseas for a couple of more seasons. That’s fine with the Bulls.

DENVER: Exceeds Expectations

22. Kenneth Faried
26. Jordan Hamilton
56. Chukwudiebere Maduabum

Traded Raymond Felton for Portland’s 26th pick, Jordan Hamilton, and Andre Miller.

Traded for Laker’s 56th pick, Chukwudiebere Maduabum, somehow.

Although I haven’t confirmed that Denver is, in fact, keeping Faried, if they do this was a very good draft day. I would have liked to have seen them get more for Felton, but Miller is a good, veteran PG that will probably be shipped elsewhere soon. Plus they were able to pick up another pick and a SF who has a chance to be a decent pro.

Faried is the type of player that everyone loves and helps you win. So why didn’t he go higher? Probably because he’s not a scorer and a little undersized.

I have no idea who Chukwudiebere Maduabum, but on his Draft Express profile, he’s listed as Chu Chu. I think he’s worthy of picking just for that. He immediately is in the running for best All-Tim NBA name.

MEMPHIS: Exceeds Expectations

49. Josh Selby

Selby was considered a first round talent, so this has to be considered a steal. Where they’ll find room for him, is another thing.
DETROIT: Exceeds Expectations

8. Brandon Knight
33. Kyle Singler
52. Vernon Macklin

Although I question whether he can play PG, Knight was projected to go in the top 5 and dropped to 8th, so Pistons fans have to be happy. Of course, he kind of presents the same problems that Rodney Stuckey, who’s also a combo guard they tried to turn into a point guard, did.

Singler is never going to be a star, but last year he was considered a middle first round pick and they got him in the second round. I think he’ll hang on and have a decent career as a bench player.

DALLAS: Exceeds Expectations

Traded their 26th pick to Portland for Rudy Fernandez

The rich get richer. Dallas has no use for a rookie and no one picked there was going to help them like Fernandez. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up starting next year.

LAKERS: Exceeds Expectations

41. Darius Morris
46. Andrew Goodelock
58. Ater Majok

Without a first round pick, they were able to pick up a decent prospect, in Darius Morris. This might be the second year in a row they get at least one keeper from the second round.

PHILADELPHIA: Exceeds Expectations

16. Nikola Vucevic
50. Lavoy Allen

Vucevic should end up being a pretty good pro and probable starter. At 16, in this draft, that’s pretty damn good.

CLEVELAND: Meets Expectations

1. Kyrie Irving
4. Tristan Thompson
32. Justin Harper

Irving will probably be the best player, so it was no surprise he was the first pick.

Thompson was the first big surprise of the night. And while I don’t think it’s a bad pick, since I think Thompson is going to be a very good pro, but he was a big reach at 3. Valanciunas would have made much more sense, but apparently Cleveland wants to make an impact immediately. Something they might regret down the line.

I think Cleveland should have offered Minnesota everything but it’s first pick to move up to 2 and draft Williams. If they had come out of the draft with Irving AND Williams, their future would have looked A LOT brighter.

Justin Harper is a stretch 4 that isn’t very big and probably won’t be much of a rebounder in the NBA. If he sticks, it’s because of his shooting. On Cleveland, that’s devoid of talent, he might, but with Antawn Jamison and J.J. Hickson as well as Anderson Varejao, who will probably be traded this summer, it’s puzzling why they’d take another power forward.

NEW YORK: Meets Expectations

45. Josh Harrellson

New York gets the guy Enes Kanter apparently made into the player he is today. So says Harrellson.

MINNESOTA: Meets Expectations

2. Derrick Williams

Traded Jonny Flynn for Houston’s 23rd pick, Nikola Mirotic, and Brad Miller.

For some reason the T-Wolves don’t end up with the 23d pick, so it’s basically a Flynn for Miller deal. Not sure why they’d do that.

Keeping Williams is the right move even though he doubles up on Beasley’s skills. He should be better than Bealsey and should give the Wolves some star power.

UTAH: Meets Expectations

3. Enes Kanter
12. Alec Burks

Although a lot of people had Brandon Knight going to Utah for the months leading up to the draft, they apparently changed their mind with less than a week to go. And while I was a little missed he didn’t fall to the Raptors, I think Utah will be VERY happy they chose Kanter instead of Knight.

Of course, while I think they made the right decision at 3, passing up Leonard, who is probably exactly what the Jazz need, is probably going to

OKLAHOMA CITY: Meets Expectations

27. Reggie Jackson

Jackson is a combo guard who joins an already crowded Thunder backcourt. I really don’t know where he’ll find minutes. I wonder why Oklahoma didn’t simply trade out of the draft.

PORTLAND: Meets Expectations

21. Nolan Smith
51. Jon Diebler

Traded Andre Miller for Raymond Felton

Traded Rudy Fernandez to Dallas for 26th pick, which they gave to Denver in prearranged deal.

Getting Felton for Miller is a great deal for Portland. He might be the young point guard they’ve been looking for all these years.

Unfortunately, picking Nolan Smith over Faried, who they could really use, was a mistake.

ORLANDO: Meets Expectations

53. DeAndre Liggins

He’s a player that was on Kentucky, but now he’s not.

ATLANTA: Meets Expectations

48. Keith Benson

He’s got legit size for an NBA power forward, and he’s stronger than he looks. For the 48th pick, the Hawks did well.

For a team hitting their ceiling, I would have liked to have seen them a little more active. Maybe after the new CBA is signed, whenever that happens.

MIAMI: Approaching Expectations

28. Norris Cole

Somehow got the 28th pick from Chicago to draft Cole, a PG, who should provide insurance in case Bibby is not re-upped.

BOSTON: Approaching  Expectations

27. JuJuan Johnson
55. E’Twaun Moore

Traded their 25th pick for the 27th pick.

Johnson is a decent player, but I don’t see him making any impact on the Celtics, either now or down the line. But would anyone else have?

Moore is an undersized shooting guard, but I’m guessing what attracted Boston was the ability to tell people they drafted JuJuan and E’Twaun. And both are American.

MILWAUKEE: Approaching Expectations

19. Tobias Harris
40. John Leuer

Traded Corey Maggette and 10th pick for Stephen Jackson and Charlotte’s 19th pick, Tobias Harris.

Getting rid of Maggette, who was a disaster, is good, but is Jackson really what they need? And how much longer does he have? Harris is a good pick, though, who’s been compared to Shane Battier.

PHOENIX: Approaching  Expectations

13. Markieff Morris

Morris might make a pretty good role player on a good team. Phoenix, however, needs home runs, not singles. They have a lot of role players and the engine that makes them go, Nash, is nearing the end of his career.

GOLDEN STATE: Approaching Expectations

11. Klay Thompson
37. Jeremy Tyler
44. Charles Jenkins

So they STILL have Monta Ellis, yet decide to draft yet another shooter, while Kawhi Leonard  and Nikola Vucevic were still available. Thompson might be the best player available, for all I know, though, and if Jerry West thinks so, it’s probably true.

I don’t know about Tyler, though, who seems to have the physical tools, but needs maturity.

WASHINGTON: Approaching Expectations

6. Jan Vesely
18.Chris Singleton
34. Shelvin Mack

A lot of teams seemed high on Vesley, but I don’t understand the attraction to him. He’s 6’11 and athletic, but he’s not a great scorer, can’t shoot, isn’t a good ball handler, will probably struggle defensively at the 3 and is a poor rebounder for his size. He’s apparently got a good motor, though, and he’s got a very hot girlfriend, so those are both pluses.

Singleton was on my don’t draft list and I really don’t see how he’s going to play with Vesley. Neither can shoot, but Singleton has even fewer skills than Vesley.

NEW JERSEY: Approaching Expectations

25. Marshon Brooks
36. Jordan Williams

Traded their 27th pick, JaJuan Johnson for Boston’s 25th pick, Marshon Brooks

When I first saw a trade between Boston and New Jersey involving Brooks, I thought it was a blockbuster. No, it was not Brooks Lopez, but Marshon Brooks, who bring his great shooting and horrible defense to a bad defensive team.

CLIPPERS: Needs Improvement

37. Trey Thompkins
47. Travis Leslie

The Clippers traded away a unprotected lottery pick that ended up being Kyrie Irving, who’s probably just what the Clippers could have used to solidify them as one of the teams of the future. What they ended up drafting were two solid NCAA players with probably very little chance of sticking in the NBA.

SACRAMENTO: Needs Improvement

10. Jimmer Fredette
35. Tyler Honeycutt

Traded their 7th pick for Milwaukee’s 10th pick, Jimmer Fredette, and John Salmons

So, the Kings trade John Salmons away, only to trade back for him a couple of years later. And move down in the draft in order to do it. Fredette might be a great shooter, but I don’t see how he helps Sacramento. He’s not going to be a good defender and will do nothing for the chemistry. Keeping the pick and taking Knight or Walker would have been preferable.

HOUSTON: Needs Improvement

14. Marcus Morris
38. Chandler Parsons

Traded Brad Miller, the 23rd pick and a future first rounder for Minnesota’s 20th pick, Donatas Motiejunas, and Jonny Flynn.

Houston’s GM, Daryl Morey, intrigues me. He’s apparently a big advanced stats guy and was initially a guy a lot of Raptor fans wanted to replace Colangelo, but he makes the most head scratching trades. Motiejunas was another on my do not draft list. He doesn’t defend or rebound, but should be able to score a lot, which makes him basically a bigger version of Kevin Martin

Morris is, yet another young, decent power forward to join Houston’s stable of other decent, power forwards. Apparently you can never get enough of them.

Parsons is a typical Rocket small forward. he does a whole lot of things, but none of them really well.

INDIANA: Needs Improvement

Traded their 15th pick, Kawhi Leonard, to the Spurs for George Hill

Don’t the Pacers already have enough PGs who aren’t really PGs? George Hill looked good in the Spurs system, but you need to watch out for those guys, because there’s a good chance he won’t look nearly as good out of it. And while the Pacers already have enough SFs, don’t they know not to trade a draft pick to the Spurs?

NEW ORLEANS: Incomplete

Traded completely out of the draft by trading the 45th pick, Josh Harrellson, to the Knicks for cash.

So let me give a final rundown of everything that’s been happening today…

FINAL MOCKS

I looked at 8 of the more respected “mockers” to see what kinds of trends I was seeing, and try and figure out what it all means.

The “mockers” I looked at were ESPN’s Chad Ford, Draft Express’s Jonathan Givony, NBADraft.net’s Aran Smith, NBA.com’s David Aldridge and Scott Howard Cooper, CNN/SI’s Sam Amick, NBA Draft Insider’s Kristofer Habbas and RealGM’s Chris Riena. Presumably, these guys are plugged in enough that they’re basing their selections on what they hear as much as where think just think player’s might go.

So it seems that, despite rumours to the contrary, the top two selections will be Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams. That makes sense since, however much I like Enes Kanter, he’s too much of a question mark to take ahead of Williams.

And 6 of the 8 say Kanter’s going to Utah, who at one point were assumed to be taking Brandon Knight. I think Kanter working out against other big men helped his cause, whereas Knight refusing to work out against other point guards might have hurt his stock.

I find it amazing that despite Valanciunas not being able to play in the NBA next year, he’s still projected to be a top 5 pick. Does that say more about his talent or more about the weakness of this draft? Probably a mixture of both. The fact that the Spurs were rumoured to want to move up to get him probably has helped his stock more than anything. Hell, as soon as I heard that’s who the Spurs were targeting, any questions I had about him went out the window.

So there is little doubt that if Irving, Williams and Valanciunas are the top 4 picks, Knight is going to go 5th, and that seems to be consensus. The Raptors are apparently high on him and would be thrilled if he dropped.

That leaves Washington apparently selecting Jan Vesley, or so 7 of the 8 mock drafts say. After that, things get murky. Some think Kemba Walker is next, others think he drops out of the top ten.

So after all that, here are a few predictions of my own.

SURE-FIRE ALL STARS

None. I don’t think there’s a player in this draft you can say is definitely going to be an All Star.

POTENTIAL ALL STARS

Kyrie Irving

Derrick Williams

Enes Kanter

Jonas Valanciunas

I think these guys will end up being the four best players from this draft, which is probably not much of a prediction since they are predicted to go in the top 4.  Valanciunas slips into this category solely on the back of the San Antonio Spurs apparently wanting him. If I’ve learned anything from previous drafts, it’s that the Spurs know what they are doing.

COULD GO EITHER WAY

Brandon Knight

Bismack Biyombo

Kawhi Leonard

Kemba Walker

Just about everyone has major question marks in this draft, but outside of the top 4, it’s these guys who I think have the best chance to become career starters. Or they could struggle to find their niche and end up as journeymen, if they’re lucky. This is when GMs earn their stripes and why I don’t envy the decision they have to make.

I can see Knight as an All-Star, but I also wonder whether he is any different from Jerryd Bayless, when he was drafted.

Biyombo could become Ben Wallace or Mouhamed Sene.

Leonard might be a game changing defender and rebounder at the SF position, or if he can’t find a shot, is he any better than Julian Wright?

Walker has the best pedigree of anyone and dominated in college, but I wonder if he’ll have more of a career like Brevin Knight or Damon Stoudamire.

SAFE PICKS

Tristan Thompson

Nikola Vucevic

Kenneth Faried

I don’t know if ANYONE is a safe pick in this draft, but I think a team selecting any one of these guys can’t go wrong. I can see each one having a long, productive career.

QUESTION MARKS

Just about everyone else.

AVOID AT ALL COSTS

Chris Singleton

Donatas Motiejunas

Jeremy Tyler

For very different reasons. I love defensive players, but Singleton is another one of those defending wings who can’t shoot that never seem to find a place in the NBA. Motiejunas’s ceiling is said to be Andrea Bargnani. Enough said? Tyler has the physical tools to be an All-Star center and the mental tools to become Patrick O’Bryant.

SLEEPERS

Nikola Mirotic

Isaiah Thomas

Cory Joseph

Mirotic won’t be coming over from Europe right away, but he’s a talented big man who likes to play inside. What do you want a bet the Spurs scoop him up? Thomas is very undersized but would probably be a lottery pick if he were 3 inches taller. Joseph, I think, suffered from not playing PG for Texas, but is one of the better defenders and shooters at that position.

PLAYER MOST LIKELY TEAMS WILL REGRET PASSING HIM UP IF HE DROPS

Jonas Valanciunas

He’s predicted to go in the top four, but if teams pass up on him because he won’t play in the NBA next year it will be a mistake. Especially considering that there might not even BE an NBA season next year.

PLAYER MOST LIKELY TO DROP LIKE JAMEER NELSON

Kemba Walker

PGs always seem to either rise (Jonny Flynn) or drop (Jrue Holiday) unexpectedly. It’s my bet Kemba will be it this year. He’s a junior (strike against) who doesn’t have great physical stats who a lot of people question whether he’ll be able to get his shot off like he could in college. However much I question whether he can find a role in the NBA, I think if he drops out of the 10 top, some NBA team is going to be very lucky.

RUMOURS

Far too many to list here, but here’s what I have grasped so far. About the ONLY picks not in play in the top ten is the #1 pick. Minnesota has been in various discussions to move down with just about everyone, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them end up keeping the pick. In fact it wouldn’t shock me to no top ten picks being traded. I think what happens is teams end up overvaluing their picks, especially when they’re getting so many offers for them.

FINAL WISH LIST FOR THE RAPTORS

What I’d like to see is them either move up to grab Kanter, or for Kanter to fall to fifth. Outside of that, I’d like to see them try and pick up another top 10 pick. I’d also LOVE to see a deal involving Bargnani.

What I most definitely do not want to see is for the Raptors to trade down. Teams that trade down almost always simply end up getting a worse player. Yes, they can pick up another asset, but it would most likely be a mediocre talent, something they have enough of and something that really isn’t hard to find.

So here’s my list of players, in order.

Enes Kanter

Jonas Valanciunas

Bismack Biyombo

Kawhi Leonard

Brandon Knight

Kemba Walker

Last year, I got my wish. Let’s hope history repeats itself.

Tomorrow morning, check back for my Draft Report Card.

For this year’s lottery, I thought I had decent expectations. I hoped simply the Raptors would get a top 3 pick, and considering they finished 3rd last, I don’t think that was expecting too much. Boy, was I wrong. The worst the Raptors could have finished was sixth, but the chances of that happening were about the same chances of the Clippers pick moving up to number one.

Okay, so maybe that wasn’t a good example.

Yes, the Clippers lost out on Kyrie Irving, who would be the perfect player for that team, so it could ship Baron Davis and his awful contract out. Amazingly, I don’t know if they regret it all that much. Still, how pissed do you think Blake Griffin is right now? Mark this down on the “con” side to him staying a Clipper.

The Clippers loss is Cleveland’s gain, and now they have the 1st and 4th pick. Not bad. Unfortunately, Cleveland’s needs are exactly the same as the Raptor needs, so there’s a very good chance that the Cavs will end up picking the players the Raptors want. At #1, Irving is a no brainer. Derrick Williams is obviously a possibility, but how can they pass up on Irving. Of course, they may think that they can get a PG with the 4th pick (Kemba Walker and Brandon Knight will be available, so they might end up choosing the pure scoring Derrick Williams at the top pick. I think Irving is the better player, so you have to choose him, but it wouldn’t shock me if Williams get’s picked here.

The T-Wolves moved down in the lottery (AGAIN!), but only one spot. If Williams goes number one, then Irving is the guy the T-Wolves have to choose, which means a trade is on the way, because there’s no way they can take Irving with Rubio apparently ready to come to the NBA and Flynn on the roster. Not even Kahn is that dumb. if I was Colangelo, I’d have Kahn on speed dial. More on that later.

At three, Utah, like Minnesota, is in a tough position. Enes Kanter is probably the best player available, but they already have Al Jefferson, Derrick Favors, Paul Millsap and Mehmet Okur tied up next year to the tune of $46 million. Yes, for two position, they are paying $46 million next year. And they’re a lottery team. Next year, the entire Raptor roster will total around $45 million. There’s certainly a decent chance the Jazz could pass on Kanter and go for, say, Brandon Knight. I think it would be a mistake, but I can certainly see it happening.

If Cleveland picks Irving at number one, than Kanter is a great pick here. If Cleveland can end up with Irving and Kanter, that’s huge. They fill the two most important positions with two of the best players in the draft. It doesn’t make up for losing LeBron, but it’s nice.

Of course, if Cleveland picks Derrick Williams, then who do they choose? Kemba Walker is a possibility, as is Kanter. Things are starting to get very fuzzy.

And, of course, draft fifth. The second worst spot they could have gotten. If Kanter drops this far, than none of this matters and the Raptors end up with, who I think, is a top three player. If he’s gone, then Jonas Valanciunas is a possibility, but I hear he might not be joining the league for at least 2 years, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he drops out of the top ten.

That leaves Walker or Knight, neither of whom I’m convinced can even be starters in the NBA. They’re both talented, for sure, but are either of them PGs? Knight had some of the worst PG stats in the NCAA and struggled before he was simply given the ball and asked to go. Something not likely to happen in the NBA. And Walker is probably closer to 5’9 and reminds me a lot of Damon Stoudamire. Yes, Stoudamire put up great stats on a bad Raptor team when he was given free reign and bad teammates, but he struggled when he played with better players who didn’t simply stay out of his way like his Raptor teammates did. I’m not convinced either player can be very productive on a good team, except maybe as a backup.

I’m really hoping Colangelo is trying to think of ways to trade up for the 2nd pick. Bargnani, Calderon and just about any other player not named Ed, DeMar or Amir should be on the table. It’s not that the 2nd pick is necessarily that good, but the 5th pick might be that bad.

To end on a bright note, last year I thought there was a chance Ed Davis might drop and he did.

So that’s all I’ve got for now. I promise not to take so much time before my next post.

Like my offseason grades, I’m going to look at each team and look at what they did as a whole, starting with the Raptors…

TORONTO: Incomplete

- James Johnson for Heat’s 2011 First Round Pick

For the Raptors, they didn’t make a big splash, but they did make one trade. Miami’s first round pick in the upcoming draft for James Johnson. To be honest, I was not a fan of Johnson coming out of Wake Forest. It didn’t instil me with confidence when both his name and Earl Clark’s were both mentioned as possibilities for the 9th pick that was eventually used to pick DeMar DeRozan. Both Johnson and Clark had fatal flaws that I turn me right off prospects. Things like “Low Basketball IQ”, or “Lack of Defensive Fundamentals” or worst of all, “Lack of Focus”. The “focus” issue is something that scares me off more than anything. This is actually something I’m going to discuss in a later post, but suffice is to say, I wasn’t a James Johnson fan.

Now, I’m giving Toronto an incomplete grade on this for a couple of reasons. The first is that no one really knows what kind of player James Johnson is. Yes, I know he played well in his Raptor debut against his old team, the Bulls, but that was one game. Let’s see how he does for the remaining 24 before we make any judgements.

The other reason they get an incomplete is because we really don’t know whether this draft is going to be as bad as people seem to think it is going to be. And that’s not just the players, but the value of the draft picks. Right now, it seems draft picks for the upcoming draft are being given away like Carmelo Anthony Nugget jerseys. Personally, I would have liked to see if the Heat pick could have been packaged to move up in the draft, or to try and draft a sleeper. Still, I don’t dislike the trade because the Heat’s pick looks like it’s going to be around 27, and the chances of finding a quality player that far down is extremely slim, especially if this draft is as bad as people say.

I’ll say this, if Johnson continues to play like he did in his debut, then this trade is a home run. He showed everything the Raptors lack, and he’ll be given every chance.

OKLAHOMA CITY: Exceeds Expectations

- Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic

- Nazr Mohommed for Morris Peterson and D.J. White

This past summer, I gave the Thunder a “Meets Expectations” grade because, while they made some good moves, they failed to fill the hole in the middle. With the only good defensive player in the middle being Serge Ibaka, and Cole Aldrich looking like a potential bust, the Thunder desperately needed another good big man. I suggested, before the New Year, trading Jeff Green, Aldrich and a 1st round pick to Cleveland for Anderson Varejao, but Varejao’s season ending injury pretty much killed that possibility. Instead of Varejao, they went out and got Kendrick Perkins.

Am I the only one who thinks this might shift the balance of power in the West?

Oklahoma’s biggest weakness this year has been their defense. They can score, but with Green and Krstic as their starting front court, they had trouble stopping people.

Now they have one of the best defensive centers in the league, in Perkins, and one of the best up and coming defensive big men in the league, in Ibaka. While they still lack a true low post scoring threat, a fact that might haunt them come the playoffs, this could be the move that launches them from pretender to true contender. Especially in the West where San Antonio and the Lakers are the two teams you have to go through. Now oklahoma can match their size.

And then they grabbed Nazr Mohammed as Perkins’ backup. Yes, Nazr is vastly overpaid, but it’s expiring, so it doesn’t matter.

The only question is whether or not Perkins is healthy. If he is, then Oklahoma made out the best of anyone.

DENVER: Exceeds Expectations

- Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Timofey Mozgov, Kosta Koufos, Knicks first-round pick (2014 or later) and the Warriors’ second-round picks in 2012 and 2013 for Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Shelden Williams, Renaldo Balkman and Anthony Carter

I already discussed this deal, but I’ll just say that with their back against the wall and everyone knowing where Carmelo would eventually go, Denver did very well. I thought they had secured 2 first round picks, but apparently not. Still staying out of this year’s draft probably isn’t such a bad thing. They got some nice young talent they can eventually flip for something, or try and develop themselves. Either way, they’ve got a lot of choices, now. And they’ll probably still compete for a playoff spot with the talent they have.

NEW JERSEY: Exceeds Expectations

- Deron Williams for Devin Harris, Derrick Favors and two 2011 first-round picks

- Brandan Wright and Dan Gadzuric for Troy Murphy and Net’s 2112 second-round pick

No deal has ever surprised me like Deron Williams going to the Nets. In this day and age, where everyone seems to know everything, that one came out of left field. And without any warning. Personally, I think Deron might be a better player than Anthony, but either way, I think he’s going to help the team more than Anthony ever could. He makes his teammates better and should be able to attract some talent to the Nets, something they failed to do this past summer.

Getting Williams was certainly a risk. Favors could blow up to be a great player and they gave up their lottery pick in the upcoming draft, which apparently has no protection, plus Golden State’s protected pick next year. Plus, Williams might just leave in a year and a half. But I doubt it.

And getting something for Troy Murphy was pretty good. Wright can’t seem to stay healthy, but there was a time when he held a lot of promise. New Jersey can afford to gamble on him.

HOUSTON: Exceeds Expectations

- Hasheem Thabeet, DeMarre Carroll and Memphis’ first-round pick for Shane Battier and Ishmael Smith

- Goran Dragic and Phoenix’s protected first-round pick for Aaron Brooks

I’ve been a fan of Battier since his days at Duke, and would love him to eventually go to a real contender, where he deserves, but Houston was not going to make the playoffs, and he probably wasn’t going to return as a free agent this summer. Getting a project like Thabeet is a low risk gamble that could pay off big, especially if he fulfills the expectations that made him a 2nd pick.

Brooks, on the other hand, is the type of PG I dislike. He’s a shoot first PG that makes his teammates grumble with his shot selection and unwillingness to pass. Yes, he can score, but I like my PGs to make everyone else better, and Brooks doesn’t do that.

Plus, they got a couple of first round picks. Not a bad days work.

PORTLAND: Meets Expectations

- Gerald Wallace for Joel Przybilla, Dante Cunningham, Sean Marks and two first-round draft picks

Portland got exceptionally better, and gave up very little. Wallace can play PF and give them a small lineup that can still rebound, or play SF and give them a big lineup. With Roy still a question mark, getting a guy like Wallace, who can score, rebound and defend, was important. Plus, he’s only 28 despite being the league 9 years.

CLIPPERS: Meets Expectations

- Mo Williams and Jamario Moon for Baron Davis and the Clipper’s 2011 first-round pick

Another surprise, since Baron Davis had been playing fairly well recently. Of course, the smart GM would use that opportunity to trade him. Who knew the Clippers had a smart GM?

One of the worst things the Clippers have done in the last decade (and there’s been a lot to choose from) might have been giving Davis that huge contract. In 11 seasons in the NBA, Davis has had exactly one exceptional season where he was completely healthy. The season before the Clippers signed him away from Golden State.

I’ve never been a fan of Mo Williams but if it’s a choice between him for 3 more years at $8.5 million and Baron Davis for 3 more years at $14 million, I’m going to choose Mo every time. And while giving up a lottery pick might seem like a steep price to get rid of Davis, the last thing the Clippers need right now is another young player, and no one’s liking the look of this draft, so it might end up being worthless, anyway.

ATLANTA: Meets Expectations

- Kirk Hinrich and Hilton Armstrong for Mike Bibby, Maurice Evans, Jordan Crawford and Atlanta’s 2011 first-round pick

I thought trading for Bibby a few years ago was fantastic for the Hawks. They desperately needed a veteran PG and Bibby had been in the playoff trenches. But he’s not the player he once was, and his defense is now pretty much non existent. Hinrich is a massive upgrade, and is an excellent defense. Plus, like Bibby, he doesn’t need the ball to be effective, which is important playing next to Joe Johnson.

NEW YORK: Meets Expectations

- Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups,Shelden Williams, Renaldo Balkman and Anthony Carter for Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Timofey Mozgov, Kosta Koufos, Knicks first-round pick (2014 or later) and the Warriors’ second-round picks in 2012 and 2013

As I said, I already discussed this deal, and New York obviously came out of the trade with the best player, but I’m not convinced New York is ever going to be a serious contender with Anthony and Amare.

NEW ORLEANS: Meets Expectations

- Carl Landry for Marcus Thornton

I’m not a big fan of either of these guys, but Thornton wasn’t getting any time because he apparently doesn’t play defense, and New Orleans is sorely lacking inside scoring. Enter Landry, who doesn’t rebound and isn’t a great defender, but can score inside.

CHICAGO: Meets Expectations

- Miami’s 2011 first-round pick for James Johnson

Johnson was obviously not going to break into the Bulls’ lineup, so getting a first round pick was probably the best thing they could have done.

MEMPHIS: Approaching Expectations

- Shane Battier and Ishmael Smith for Hasheem Thabeet, DeMarre Carroll and Memphis’ first-round pick

Giving up Thabeet and a first-round pick was a big gamble for a player who might not eve re-sign with Memphis this summer, but Battier is exactly the type of player they need. A steady, smart veteran who doesn’t need the ball to be effective and who knows how to win. Memphis obviously hopes he’ll rub off on everyone else on the team.

I still think they should have traded Zach Randolph while his stock was so high.

BOSTON: Approaching Expectations

- Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic for Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson

- Sacramento’s second-round pick for Marquis Daniels

- Cleveland’s second-round pick for Semih Erden and Luke Harangody

When Kendrick Perkins got injured a couple of seasons ago in the playoffs, it cost the Celtics the title. He might be one of the best centers in the league at defending Dwight Howard. Trading away a very good defensive center in his prime is a huge, huge risk. One I think might come back to haunt the Celtics.

I like Jeff Green, and I think not being forced to play PF will do him a world of good, and I think he’s a very good defender at the SF position, but basically the Celtics gave up a starter for a bench player. They are going to have to rely on Shaq a lot more at center, and this quote from Doc Rivers doesn’t do a lot for me: ”Shaq’s a key component of this,” said Rivers. “We need to get Shaq healthy and Shaq will be healthy. If Shaq plays great, this deal was actually really good for us. That’s on Shaq. We have to get Shaq in great shape, get him ready, get him healthy. He’s really going to be important for us in the playoffs.”

Plus, the Celtics are going to have two players (Shaq and Rondo) who can’t hit free throws. You don’t think that might hurt them?

SACRAMENTO: Approaching Expectations

- Marcus Thornton for Carl Landry

- Marquis Daniels for a second-round pick

I’m not quite sure why Sacramento would want Thornton or Daniels, since they already have Evans Casspi and Garcia, but I guess they didn’t give up much, so why not.

MINNESOTA: Approaching Expectations

- Anthony Randolph and Eddy Curry for Corey Brewer

Yes, Minnesota is acquiring assets, but Corey Brewer is more productive than Anthony Randolph, and Minnesota agreed to take on Eddy Curry to get him. Randolph better end up panning out.

WASHINGTON: Approaching Expectations

- Mike Bibby, Maurice Evans, Jordan Crawford and Atlanta’s 2011 first-round pick for Kirk Hinrich and Hilton Armstrong

I find it hard to believe that the best Washington could have gotten for Hinrich was Mike Bibby and another year of his contract and a late first-round pick in a bad draft. It’s not bad, but I wouldn’t say it was good, either.

CLEVELAND: WHY??????

- Baron Davis  and the Clippers 2011 first-round pick for Mo Williams and Jamario Moon

- Semih Erden and Luke Harangody for a second-round pick

I can understand wanting to get the Clippers first round pick (probably a top 10 pick), but is it really worth taking on Baron Davis when you couldn’t even get rid of Antoine Jamison and his awful contract?

PHOENIX: Your Kid Is A Moron

- Aaron Brooks for Goran Dragic and Phoenix’s protected first-round pick

I have absolutely no idea what Phoenix is doing. Brooks is a brutal PG because he can’t pass, so he’s the anti-Nash. And they gave up a first round pick when they should be collecting them.

UTAH: Incomplete

- Devin Harris, Derrick Favors and two 2011 first-round picks for Deron Williams

As I previously said, this trade came out of nowhere, and I’m not quite sure how I feel about it from Utah’s perspective. If Williams was indeed on his way out of town, as some have said, then trading him now was a fantastic idea. And getting what they did for him was very good. Personally, I liked the Nets offer for Carmelo better than the Knicks, and the Jazz ended up getting it.