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The Trading Post
Posted on | February 16, 2010 | 1 Comment
When I worked at EA Sports a number of years ago, I was involved heavily in `Franchise Mode’. It was a natural fit for me and I loved it. Though gameplay was fun, it was managing the roster that I found the most fun. Making trades, drafting etc. What the game never achieved, however, was the hype surrounding this time of year in the NBA. I know I should probably take Doug Smith’s tact and hate this time of year because it’s not about the game, and involves innuendo and rumours, the bane of his existence, but I can’t help it. It’s fun.
Yes, it can be fun for the fan, but for the players it must be torture. Imagine you’re busy going about your job when you keep hearing your name popping up in rumoured transfers to other branches in different cities. It must be difficult.
So with all due respect to the players, this post is dedicated to discussing every rumoured deal, and maybe proposing a new one or two. There are simply too many deals to discuss every single one, so I’ll focus on a few that seem to have legs. First off, though, I’m going to look at Toronto’s situation.
TORONTO
For the first time in a while, the Raptors are virtually a non-entity on the trade rumour mill. It’s a good sign. Making a deal might end up backfiring for the Raptors, unless it seriously upgrades their talent level. Still, there are a couple of moves they could make that might improve them.
Andre Igoudala for Demar DeRozan, Amir Johnson and Marcus Banks
In an earlier post, I proposed including Calderon in a trade for Iguodala, in this one, he’s not included, but Philly gets more salary relief. Banks’ contract isn’t great, but it’s 3 years less than Iguodala’s. Including Amir gives them another young prospect, as well as an expiring contract. Obviously Iguodala would be a great fit for the Raptors, and might be enough to entice Bosh to re-sign.
Andris Biedrins for Amir Johnson and Marcus Banks
While Amir Johnson is having a great season for the Raptors, and fills a need, the fact that he’s a free agent this summer makes it a real possibility he won’t be back. Why not use his expiring contract to try and get something in return. Biedrins is underutilized in Golden State and overpaid, but his rebounding, shot blocking and mobility would be a great replacement for Johnson, and the fact that he’s got a long term contract means that he’ll be around for a while. The biggest plus, though, would be that he would be a better insurance policy for Bosh than Johnson.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Antawn Jamison for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Antawn Jamison is the perfect PF on the market to play with LeBron. He can score outside and inside, and would more than likely get them to the Finals. On the downside, he’s 33, so you’ve got to question how much longer he can play at such a high level. With LeBron not even being 25, the best way to keep him around is to surround him with guys who will be around for a while. Of course, Washington apparently doesn’t want to deal with Cleveland because of the history between them.
Amare Soudemire for J.J. Hickson, Z. Ilguaskas and Jamario Moon (or someone like him)
This would be the trade that would bring the best player, and since he’s indicated he won’t opt out, he’ll probably be with the team for at least another season and would be a huge enticement for LeBron to re-sign. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’s a good fit, and I think he might not like to be LeBron’s second fiddle. On the court, the Cavs currently have LeBron and Shaq to play inside, and I don’t see there being much room down there. Add Stoudamire, and if these guys don’t bump into each other, I’d be surprised. There are also conflicting reports that he my not want to be traded to Cleveland.
Phoenix would be getting Hickson, who is a talented, young big man, as well as Iguaskas’ expiring contract. If I was Phoenix, I’d keep looking.
Troy Murphy for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Troy Murphy might be the best PF for the Cavs to trade for. He’s younger than Jamison and a better outside shooter than Stoudemire. Plus he’s a better rebounder than either of them. I also think he might be cheaper to trade for. He’s the least sexy option, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this is who they end up getting.
A salary dump for Indiana, plus they get a good young prospect in Hickson. This might be the best deal out there and the best chance to rid themselves of Murphy’s contract. On the plus side, it opens up playing time for rookie Tyler Hansbridge.
Corey Maggette and Raja Bell for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Now, I haven’t actually heard Bell’s name in any proposed deal, but it works and makes sense. Maggette is having possibly his best year as a pro, and he’s probably more what Cleveland needs. He’s that second scorer that Mo Williams and Shaq simply aren’t. With both him and LeBron on the floor together, opposing teams couldn’t have a weak defender defending Maggette, as they can with Parker. If I was Cleveland, this might be my first choice of the rumoured deals.
Another salary dump, and considering that no one wanted to touch Maggette a year ago, getting Hickson might be a huge bonus. Golden State has too many wing players, too many scorers and not enough healthy PFs. This is a no brainer, in my opinion.
Now, I have only heard Stoudemire’s name, and no one from Miami, so this is purely conjecture. It would completely kill any cap room they would have this summer, but the question is, would they be able to get anyone better than these two? A lineup of Amare, Beasley, Richardson (either Jason or Quentin) and Wade would be pretty offensively potent. The rim would certainly get a workout. I don’t know how good they’d be defensively, though. Possibly even worse than the Raptors.
The latest rumour is that Miami is looking for a third team to trade with, which makes sense, because I don’t see the above trade going down. Despite their desire for Stoudemire, the only thing they really have of any value they are apparently willing to trade is O’Neal and his expiring contract. I’d be surprised if Amare lands in Miami because apart from the above deal, where they get rid of all but Nash’s big contract, there’s nothing Miami has that the Suns would want.
Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert for Tracy McGrady
I don’t know who’s reluctant to make this deal, but it had better be Philadelphia. I know Houston would be taking back salary, and Dalembert would have to move to the bench when Yao returned, but how could you not do this deal? Adding Iguodala to Ariza and Battier would be potent, and having Dalembert would allow Yao to play limited minutes, possibly extending his career. Quite frankly, I think Philadelphia might be looking for a little more than McGrady for Iguodala, and so they should.
Jordan Hill, Jarred Jeffries and Larry Hughes for Tracy McGrady
This is the latest rumour and it makes a little more sense for both teams. Houston gets New Yorks 2009 lottery pick, Jordan Hill and Hughes’ expiring contract, so they still save money. New York gets more cap space and can try McGrady out for a couple of months. If I was Houston, though, I’d ask for a draft pick as well.
Marcus Camby for Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake
Injuries have really hurt Portland’s chances this year, and this trade highlights just how much. Outlaw and Blake are valuable, but they’re free agents this summer, and might not want to re-sign onto Portland’s loaded roster. Camby gives them a real center so they can remain competitive the rest of the season. The Clippers get a good backup for the rest of the season and maybe re-sign outlaw, who could end up starting for the Clippers, when healthy. Really, it’s a short term deal for both, but Portland has the chance to benefit the most. If I were the Clippers, I’d try and get more for Camby and his expiring contract.
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Those are the main rumoured trades around the league, at least ones that I see even remotely happening. Here are a few that I think make sense, but I haven’t heard mentioned.
Mike Miller and Fabricio Oberto for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
This is one I haven’t heard, and considering Washington’s feelings about dealing with Cleveland, probably wouldn’t happen. It is probably the best deal Cleveland could do, however. Miller is the outside shooter and scoring threat the Cavs need at the wing position, and while Oberto’s best days are behind him, and hasn’t been playing much in Washington, he’s got playoff experience with the Spurs, which looks good on anyone’s resume. Besides, he’d only be needed to play a few minutes here and there.
Mike Miller was traded for when it looked like the Wizards might be a playoff team. They are not. Getting Hickson would be a plus. In the end, it’s a low risk deal that makes sense for both teams.
Kirk Hinrich and Jannero Pargo for Sacha Vujacic, Adam Morrison and Jordan Farmar
The Bulls want to clear more cap room to try and get a big free agent, and the Lakers weakest position is PG. Hinrich is made for the triangle offense and would become their best PG. He doesn’t need to handle the ball to be effective but is a better passer than any of the present Laker PGs, is a very good defender and has lots of playoff experience. The Bulls clear cap room, but also get a couple of nice, young bench players.
Amare Stoudemire for Tyrus Thomas and Brad Miller
I know the Bulls are hoping for Wade to sign, but that’s unlikely, and what they need more than anything is an inside scorer. They discussed trading for Amare last season, but nothing happened. He’s now healthy and would give the Bulls another scorer, which they have lacked. Tyrus Thomas has struggled in his time in Chicago, but he’s not made for that kind of ball. If anyone would benefit from playing with Nash, Thomas would. If the Suns do trade Amare, I think Thomas is the best prospect they could get for him. Miller’s expiring contract means it’s basically Amare for Thomas, which, considering the circumstances makes sense.
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Now, although Orlando has not really been mentioned in any trade talk, I think they need to make some sort of deal. The only reason they beat Cleveland last year is because they matched up well against them, but this year that isn’t so. Trading for Vince hasn’t worked out as well as they hoped, and could use a creative wing player who can do what Turkoglu did, which be the initiator. The player who would be absolutely perfect would have been Iguodala, but Orlando has absolutely no pieces that Philadelphia would want. That might mean bringing a third team into it, but I can’t see who.
Boston’s window is closing, if it isn’t already closed. Danny Ainge has to figure out if the team is still a contender, and may want to use Ray Allen’s expiring contract to get younger.
Minnesota is apparently interested in Tyrus Thomas, but I don’t know who they want to send back in return. The question is, why on earth would they want Thomas? Thinking about it, though, it makes perfect sense. They drafted two starting PGs in the last draft, so might as well deal for another PF when their two best players are PFs. They’re very big on redundancy in Minnesota, and if the GM continues to make moves that don’t quite make sense, he’s going to find himself redundant.
How’s That Crystal Ball? (All-Star Version)
Posted on | February 10, 2010 | 5 Comments
Before we get to the predictions, I have to say a few words about the win against Philadelphia. It’s funny how, when they were up by 20+, I really didn’t see how they would let the Sixers back in the game the way they were playing, but of course they did. It’s what makes them fun to watch, I guess. And however frustrating it is, and dangerous, it is also reassuring that they can do that but still come through when it counts. The Raptors went on a 9-0 run to finish the game after the Sixers tied the game at 93. Ya, they shouldn’t have let them back in the game, but to finish a game like that is impressive.
Now back to our regularly scheduled post…
Since the All Star break is upon us (for the Raptors, anyway), I thought it would be a good time to look back and see how my pre-season predictions are doing.
The first prediction I made was at the end of a very long look back at Colangelo’s tenure with the Raptors.
For those that want to read it in context, it’s right near the bottom, in the Final Analysis.
So way back before training camp even started, my prediction for the season was 45 wins and a chance at home court advantage. Right now, the Raptors are sitting at 28-23 and .549, which translates over 82 games to….
45 wins!
Great, but the season isn’t over yet. They could hit a losing streak or rough patch and never reach that number, or they could continue at their current pace (22-10) since they turned things around at the beginning of December and win 49 games. Personally, I’d like to see the latter happen even if my prediction ends up being wrong.
“Bosh will have a career year, lead the Raptors back to the playoffs and re-sign”
Bosh currently has career high averages in points (24.4 ppg), rebounds (11.4 rpg) and field goal percentage (.525). I’d say he’s having a career year.
Now after the offseason, many questioned whether Bosh would be able to average his normal scoring numbers this season, with the addition of Turkoglu and the continued development of Bargnani, as well as the other additions. Personally, I thought all the additions would HELP, not HURT his statistics. Just about all of the great offensive players the Raptors added were also great passers and I felt that with Bosh planning to score inside more “just an increase by a couple of percent would bring him near the 24 ppg mark”, which is where he now stands.
Now, obviously, the playoffs seem definitely in reach, with the Raptors comfortably sitting in the 5th spot in the East. Home court looks out of reach, but should Boston continue to stumble, you never know. I doubt it, though.
We’ll have to wait until this summer to see whether the last part of my prediction comes true.
“The Raptors will struggle out of the gate but put things together by Christmas”
Well, I wasn’t optimistic enough with this prediction, it seems. They pretty much turned things around after their awful loss against Atlanta. Of course, I also wrote…
“In December, they’ll go 9-6 and people will start forgetting the start, but still talk about trading Bosh. January will see them go 9-6 again, and fans will start talking about trying to get a top seed in the playoffs.”
In December they DID go 9-6, but actually ended up winning 10 games in January, not 9. There was talk of trading Bosh during the rough start, but it subsided in January. Really, Raptor fans are a predictable lot!
It wasn’t really hard to make this prediction, though, however accurate it is. The Raptors were a new, young team, but talented. They got off to a 7-14 the last time they had a rebuilt roster, so it wasn’t much of a stretch, especially considering the tough schedule, that something similar would happen this year.
“Bosh will be the only Raptor All-Star, but not the only Raptor at All-Star Weekend”
Pretty self explanatory here. I was wrong, though, in guessing that Shaq would again be an All-Star (thank goodness), and injuries took away any hope that Danny Granger would return to the All-Star game this season.
I suggested that Bargnani would be a good fit for the 3 point shootout, and I think it’s too bad he wasn’t invited. I think his style of shooting is made for this type of contest. In the end, I think the fact that he actually had a more well rounded offense might have, ironically, hurt his chances.
DeMar will be there, but is not guaranteed to be in the dunk contest. Instead, he’s going in the dunk off. I’m predicting right here he’ll win that dunk off against a guy not really known for dunking and then come in third in the Slam Dunk Contest. I’d love to see him win, though.
“Marco Belinelli will eventually be in the top 3 in voting for 6th Man of the Year”
He’s been up and down this year, but when he’s up, you can see the potential for this. Keep in mind, I made this prediction during a horrible pre-season for Marco. I made some comparisons to Ginobili, which I still think hold true. We’ll have to wait on this one.
“The Raptors will end up being a half decent defensive team”
In November, this prediction looked WAY off, and I won’t lie to you, I was a little worried. Bargnani was not playing defense like I had anticipated, and Calderon has yet to return to the type of defense he played when Ford was in town. In fact, I don’t know if any Raptors looked good defensively in November.
What turned the team around in December, however, was probably their defense. It’s still not great, but it’s about what I said it would be, half decent. They have the ability to play very good defense for stretches, and that’s all they’ve needed to do to in order to achieve the success they have.
Although they have now become a half decent defensive team, if they truly want to become contenders, they have to take the next step defensively. The question is, whether they need to make a trade for this to happen.
“The Raptors will not make it to the second round of the playoffs”
Well, since the playoffs haven’t happened, yet, it’s impossible to know whether this prediction will come true, but at this point, they’re a 5th seed and if the playoffs started today, they would face the Celtics, who they haven’t won a game against this season.
Hopefully things will change.
The rest of the predictions were for around the league….
Things have actually turned out better than I had expected in Cleveland, but I don’t think we have Shaq to thank for this. He’s averaging a career low 11.7 ppg and 6.8 rpg in just 23.2 mpg. They’re a worse defensive team this season, and I think they’ll need to make a trade in order to position themselves better for this summer. They have a lot of older veterans who are on the decline.
As for Shaq, himself, he’s pretty much kept his mouth shut and tried to be a good citizen in Cleveland. Maybe he knows this will be his last chance, or perhaps he heard too much about what he’s left behind. Personally, I just think it’s too early. He’s usually on his best behaviour at first, but he just can’t keep his mouth shut forever. Eventually, you know something stupid is going to come out.
They’re actually on exactly the same pace as last year, but they’ve been very erratic. Howard has not played well when he’s played, and he’s most likely gone by the trade deadline. Now, I’m going to guess that Dallas could get a very good piece in return for Howard. The main reason is because, for all intent and purposes, he’s got an expiring contract. Howard is set to make $11.8 million next season in the last year of a contract given to him when he played a lot better and looked to have a much brighter future. But next season is a team option, and I don’t think anyone would pick up that option, so he’s basically an expiring contract.
Do I bring this up in order to misdirect you so you don’t notice that I wasn’t right with this prediction? Well, yes.
Currently, the Magic are on pace to finish a few games behind where they did last year, and numerous articles have been written about how the Magic miss Turkoglu. Notwithstanding the last game, when Carter stepped in his wayback machine and threw up 48 points against New Orleans, Vince has struggled this season in Orlando. He’s got career lows in scoring (16.6 ppg), rebounds (4.4 rpg), assists (2.8 apg) and field goal percentage (.396).
While Turkoglu hasn’t been lighting it up in Toronto, he’s been the facilitator on offense that the Raptors had hoped he’d be and, if push came to shove, the Magic would rather have Turkoglu back. Last year, Orlando was 9-2 in games decided by 3 points or less. This year, they’re 2-3.
While Joe Dumars, the player, was, and still is, one of more underrated players in the game, I’ve always felt that Joe Dumars, the GM, has always been a little overrated. I went into a little detail of it here, but he’s had his share of bad decisions, as well as good ones. Yes, he built a Championship team, but without Rasheed Wallace dropping in his lap, I don’t think they win it, and, quite frankly, I think they were the weakest NBA Champion in recent history.
And while the trade for Iverson made some second guess him, it’s what he did afterwards that was the clincher for me. Using the cap room that Detroit gained to sign Ben Gordon and Charlie Villaneuva made no sense to me. Both players I felt were incredibly overrated. While both are very good offensive players, they’re incredibly flawed players that will make it difficult for them to ever start on a contender. Gordon is an explosive scorer who doesn’t pass and doesn’t play defense. As I said in my prediction, he’d be great off the bench, but I don’t think you want to purposely pay a bench player $11 million.
And Villaneuva is a big tease who’s got lots of offensive ability, avoids the paint and never, ever plays defense. Exactly where does he fit in on the Pistons squad?
Well, it’s the All-Star break and both Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton are both on the block. Personally, I’d put pretty much the entire team on that block. I don’t see much hope, here.
Okay, so they don’t exactly look like contenders right now, and in fact are only a game ahead of Toronto in the league standings, but I still think this team could put it together in time for the playoffs.What I thought was the best pickup in the league, Richard Jefferson, has not been successful. He not only hasn’t been able to fit in offensively, but defensively, as well. I figured his transition would be incredibly smooth, because I thought he was the perfect Spur player. Right now, I’m reading that the Spurs are willing to deal him, but aren’t finding any takers.
I’m going to tick this one off as incomplete….
So I’m not perfect, but I think I’ve done pretty well, prediction-wise.
Now, to make things more interesting, around the same time I made my predictions, my friend, Darren, emailed me three predictions for the upcoming season. Now, normally, we agree on pretty much everything to do with basketball, but there were two of his predictions here that I didn’t agree with. Try and guess which ones…
1. The New York Knicks will win more games than the Toronto Raptors
Just think both teams defense and rebounding isn’t great, but maybe the Knicks will run a better offense over the course of the season
2. Dejuan Blair OR Taj Gibson will get more votes for Rookie of the Year than DeMar Derozan
Just believe in their college stats, and despite them being drafted later, I think they are and will be better NBA players…not a big believer in that “Bigger Upside Potential” for draft choices
3. The Raptors will finish the season with less than 42 wins.
The East is stronger, and the rebounding and defense will be a nagging problem for them, throughout the year.
He even said he would give me $10 for every prediction he got wrong. Well, if nothing else, I’m going to be up 20 bucks come April 14th. Sorry, Darren.
Keep An Eye On This One
Posted on | November 12, 2009 | 2 Comments
A very interesting matchup tonight. Watch it if you can. LeBron and the Cavs are playing Wade and the Heat. Obviously the marquee matchup will be LeBron and Wade, and rightly so. Both players might finish in the top three in MVP voting this year. What makes it even more noteworthy is that the Heat are actually playing above expectations (6-1) whereas the Cavs are still struggling (5-3) to find their groove after so many new additions in the offseason. They are two very different franchises with very different strategies, but with similar problems.
Both LeBron and Wade are free agents this season (if they opt out, which they are expected to do), and will be the two most prized free agents. Their teams, though, have employed two very different means of how they will entice them to re-sign. Cleveland has decided that it will do anything it takes to try and win a Championship this year, hoping that LeBron can’t leave a Championship team. They are well over the luxury tax threshold and have surrounded LeBron with veterans who know how to win. They are in a win now mentality, and only thinking as far ahead as the playoffs, even forgoing any cap room next summer to sign additional free agents.
Miami, on the other hand, has decided that they don’t want to do anything to jeopardize their future, and although they did attempt to sign a free agent with their MLE, when ones they wanted signed elsewhere, they decided to stand pat instead of grabbing a player who might help them a bit this season, but hurt their cap room next summer.
I’ve stated previously that I have not been a big fan of Ferry’s strategy. The trade for Shaq felt like a knee jerk reaction and, considering his play so far, has not paid off. Maybe it will in the future, and the win against Orlando last night certainly showed why they got him, but it worries me that they have $31.5 million worth of expiring contract and they still won’t be under the cap. Surrounding LeBron with veterans who will help him win is one thing, but both Shaq and Parker are nearing the end of their productive parts of their careers. And Ilgauskus has been declining for years now. What is Cleveland going to do to show LeBron that he has a future in Cleveland?
And while I was critical of Pat Riley not improving this past summer, especially after Wade’s comments about wanting better players, their future is certainly brighter. Unlike Cleveland, they’ll have loads of cap room this summer, in fact enough to sign another top tier free agent (Bosh is apparently a target). Even better for the Heat is that they have some half decent players that will be around after next summer in Beasley, Chalmers and Halsem.
Now, the matchup I will be watching the closest is not the marquee matchup, but the center one. Shaquille O’Neal was brought on board to try and give LeBron his first ring. So far, the team, and Shaq, have struggled. In fact, Shaq is averaging career lows in most categories, but a lot of that is due to his averaging a career low 24.8 mpg. Now an optimist might say that they are simply saving him for the playoffs, but the problem is that Cleveland has generally not played well when he’s been on the floor. Their spacing has been off and their defense has suffered.
When The Raptors traded away Jermaine O’Neal, I went on record saying that Miami got the best deal in the trade. At first it didn’t look that way because Jermaine struggled and Toronto played so much better with Marion, but Marion is now in Dallas and Miami is 6-1, with Jermaine playing better than he did in Toronto. He’s actually getting more points and rebounds per game than than Shaq, because he’s able to stay on the floor longer. Plus, Jermaine looks like he might still have enough gas in his tank for Miami to re-sign him at a much reduced rate, and still have enough to make a big impact on the free agent market.
keep looking »
