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Should Colangelo Play Hardball?
Posted on | July 1, 2010 | 7 Comments
Bloggers note: I know I promised a Draft Report Card, and I had started writing it, but got too busy. I still may finish it, but I don’t get paid to do this, so who knows.
So hunting season has started and the bullets are flying left, right and centre. For Raptor fans, the good part in this is that we don’t have to read all the premature speculation about where Bosh could be going. On the downside, we now have to read the less speculative reports about where Bosh could be going.
By the time you read this, it’s possible that Bosh, or any of the other big name free agents, could have agreed to sign with a team, but I doubt it. Proving that all the rumours flying around about where players have decided to go were false, I’m going to guess it will at least be a day or so before players start making verbal agreements. They’re going to want to know what’s out there for them and they couldn’t do that until today.
So with Bosh seemingly more open to playing second fiddle to guys like Wade or LeBron than he initially stated, it seems that the likelihood of Bosh leaving is pretty much a reality. Too bad. While he’s certainly not the type of big man I would choose to build around if given the choice, he is the best player, by far, that the Raptors have and the team is worse off without him.
The question now is what to do if Bosh chooses to sign elsewhere, as is predicted. Initially, I felt not doing a sign and trade was pointless and only hurting the team. After reading this article on Raptors Digest, I realized that Colangelo might need to take a different approach. Now, I have no idea what deals are available to the Raptors in a sign and trade for Bosh. Bosh going to Miami seems to be the rumour with the most legs, and there is talk of everything from Michael Beasley, Mario Chalmers and Joel Anthony, to a simple $16 million trade exception and the Raptors draft pick back.
The most frightening rumour out there was that LeBron, Wade and Bosh all agreed to sign with the same team, probably Miami. If you’re a Miami fan, you couldn’t ask for better news. If you’re a fan of the other 29 teams, this would just plain suck. The East would basically be a wasteland and no Western Conference team would have a hope of beating them in the Finals. Personally, I don’t see this happening, and there are recent reports that Wade has given up trying to recruit LeBron.
Still, it got me thinking that perhaps Colangelo might not want to simply sign and trade Bosh to any team he wants. Maybe Colangelo might want to sit back and think about what really is best for the Raptors.
If Colangelo decides to play hardball with Bosh, Bosh could simply sign with one of the teams that have the cap space, but he would be losing out on nearly $30 million and an extra year on his contract. That might be enough to entice Bosh to want to help out the Raptors a little more.
First of all, if I’m Colangelo, I’d forbid Bosh from teaming up with both LeBron and Wade. They could only do that in Miami, so Colangelo would simply have to refuse to take back Beasley and Chalmers. Without Colangelo taking back those players, Miami doesn’t have enough to sign all three. Problem solved.
Of course, simply preventing a dynasty in his own conference might not be enough for Colangelo. He might actually want something of value back for Bosh. Something more than a simple trade exception. Could Colangelo give Bosh a list of teams HE would approve of, and what he would expect back were Bosh to agree to a sign-and-trade to them?
If enough teams are desperate for Bosh, he might be willing to put pressure on those teams to agree to Colangelo’s demands. Obviously the teams without cap space would be able to send the most talent back, but simple talent, with equal sized contracts, might not be exactly what Colangelo wants back. Now obviously a trade of Bosh and Jack for Bynum and Odom would be incredibly enticing, especially if the Raptors could turn around and trade Odom for a young player. Even more enticing might be a trade to the Nets, where they send back draft pick Derrick Favors in return. Sure, the Raptors just drafted Ed Davis, who plays the same position, but getting Favors would give the Raptors an 18 year old athletic big man would give them a great piece to keep or trade, but they’d also be getting a sizeable trade exception to do with what they want.
Basically, Colangelo, who has been powerless throughout the Bosh saga, might be able to actually wield some power, and possibly gain some more respect, if he decides to play hardball with Bosh. It certainly could backfire and Bosh could leave for nothing, giving the Raptors less cap space than what the MLE is worth this summer, but Colangelo might actually be able to turn water into wine and come out somewhat of a victor in this whole sordid mess.
It’s a dangerous gamble, and one that will end up affecting the team for years. It’s the dangerous gamble, however, that a great GM would make. Back when Jerry West was in charge of the Lakers, he traded away a top ten center, in Vlade Divac, in exchange for the 13th pick in the draft and the cap space to be able to ATTEMPT to sign Shaquille O’Neal away from the Orlando. Thankfuly, for them, that 13th pick was Kobe Bryant and Shaq decided to walk away from a nice young team in Orlando that had just won 60 games and made it to the Eastern Conference Finals. Can you imagine if Kobe had been a little more like Kwame, and if Shaq decided he like Orlando better? Talk about your bad moves. West, however, had confidence in his abilities and judgement and decided to trust his instincts and threw everything into the pot. Colangelo has that chance, although unfortunately without the same upside as Jerry West’s bet.
Loading ...WTF???
Posted on | June 7, 2010 | 8 Comments
You know, I remember back when Jordan was in his prime, Jerry Krause, the then-GM of the Bulls, was fawning over what many said was the European Magic Johnson. After drafting Toni Kukoc in the second round, Krause talked him up like he was going to be the future of the Bulls. This annoyed Jordan, as Kukoc hadn’t even played a minute in the NBA and he had decided to stay in Europe for three more years before joining the Bulls. The fact of the matter was, however, that Jordan had almost no input into personnel moves. He didn’t like Krause trading his good friend Charles Oakley for Bill Cartwright but Krause did it anyway. Both moves, however, helped bring consecutive Championships to the city of Chicago.
You see, while Krause may never have been the best people person, and often had a rather contentious relationship with Jordan, he was a good GM and knew how to run a club. He never asked Jordan for advice about what he should do because it was simply not Jordan’s job. Jordan was one of the best players to ever play the game, but that certainly didn’t give him the qualifications to give advice on personnel moves, and Krause knew that. And everything that Jordan has done since leaving the court proves this.
So when I read that LeBron was basically making decisions involving trades, I shook my head. Is this what the NBA has come to? Allowing the inmates to run the asylum? It’s no wonder that the Cavs roster looked like a patchwork of players that didn’t go together. I don’t mind when franchise players are given some input on personnel moves, but to be given the power that LeBron had is ridiculous. So when Cleveland’s real GM, Danny Ferry, announced he was “stepping down”, I was of two minds. Well, three. First, I didn’t really believe that he was stepping down. And if he did actually step down, he should have been fired. Also, is it fair to fire a guy when he wasn’t even the one making the decisions? Then again, if the GM is really giving decision making power to one of his players, he SHOULD be fired.
This brings up Chris Bosh’s assertion that the Raptors need an All Star who can create his own shot. Does that mean, if Colangelo wants to retain Bosh, he should do what Bosh asks? Of course not. It’s not that the Raptors don’t need one, it’s just that there are things higher on their list of needs. Like defenders. That’s why the latest trade rumour involving the Raptors made little sense to me. Now, I wasn’t a big fan of Mo Williams when he was in Milwaukee because he was a shoot first PG who didn’t seem to know how to run an offense. And he didn’t play much defense, either. In Cleveland, though, he fit fairly well. The Cavs already had the offense running through LeBron, but what they didn’t have was someone who could create his own shot, other than LeBron. Williams did that.
I simply don’t understand the point of the Raptors trading Calderon for Williams. First of all, with it being likely that Bosh AND Turkoglu won’t return next season, shouldn’t you want a PG who can run an offense and make his teammates better? Calderon certainly has a weakness on the defensive end, but there were many times he saved the Raptors when he came into the game with the second unit and jumpstarted the struggling offense. He’ll hurt you on the defensive end, but he has a much bigger impact on the offensive end than most fans realize.
Mo Williams WAS an All-Star with Cleveland, but if anyone thinks that had more to do with him as a player than the fact that he was the second best player on the NBA’s best team, well I’ve gone an oil well in Texas to sell you. Williams would not improve the team, but it might be something that would entice Bosh to stay. If it doesn’t improve the team, then it frankly isn’t worth it.
Of course, then I read that Doug Smith asked about it and was told to “Forget it.”
Hold on, though. How could this widely circulated story possibly be based on nothing? I decided to do some digging…
Nets Turn Down Dooling Deal For Beasley
Heat Never Offered Beasley To Nets
Okay, that’s a little weird.
Report: Wizards Ready to Dump Arenas. Will Consider Buyout
Wizards Like Duo of Wall-Arenas
Mmmm.
Wesley Claims LeBron Leaning Strongly Toward Bulls
Source: LeBron Seriously Considering Joining Wade In Miami
WTF?
You know, I’m starting to wonder whether I can believe ANYTHING I read now. It’s almost as though half of the NBA rumours out there are completely bogus with very little basis in fact! Talk about your world crumbling.
It makes me wonder about the latest Raptor rumour making the rounds, about Colangelo wanting to move up in the draft. Well, you’ll excuse me if I pee my pants. Where do I sign up for this? I don’t know if there is a trade I wouldn’t do in order to get the number 2 pick from Philadelphia. I just get the feeling that Evan Turner is going to be a special player in the NBA. With Bosh probably gone, the Raptors need a new franchise player and getting the number 2 pick would be a huge step in the right direction.
Of course, now we wait a couple of days for an opposing article…
The Highest Rate of Return (Part 1)
Posted on | May 27, 2010 | No Comments
Now, when I started this list, I hadn’t read any others out there, but now everyone seems to be writing these, so it’s not nearly as original as I was hoping.
A while ago, I tried to predict which team Chris Bosh would, and should, choose this summer. Recently, it came to light that Chris Bosh and his agent either gave Bryan Colangelo a list of the five teams he will want to choose from (Toronto WAS on the list), or not, depending on who you believe. Personally, I don’t know what to believe, but even if there is a list, I certainly don’t think it’s definitive. I think that other teams will try and woo him and there’s a chance he may go elsewhere.
Now, I have absolutely no clue where Bosh will end up, but that’s not going to stop me from joining the speculation train. Obviously, the best thing for the Raptors is for Bosh to want to go to a team that is either not under the cap, or a team that is under the cap, but still might want to clear more salary. That way, the Raptors would be in a better position to negotiate to get talent back. I’ve left out teams like Utah or Golden State, that could use Bosh and put together a great package, but would be very unlikely Bosh would choose to go to. So here are the top ten teams I would choose for Bosh to go to and who I would ask for in return.
10. Miami
This is the last place Raptor fans should want Bosh to go to. About the only player they have to offer is Beasley, who might very well be the absolute worst fit for the Raptors. He doesn’t play defense and isn’t a very good rebounder. Actually, scratch that, he’d fit right in on the Raptors front line.
Mario Chalmers isn’t a bad defensive PG, but he’s certainly not starting quality. When he might be the best asset to get back, that’s not a good sign.
Some fans like the idea of getting the 1st round draft pick from the O’Neal-Marion trade back. That would be nice, but it just seems like these are the same types of people that pine after their ex-girlfriends/ex-boyfriends even after they’ve gotten married and had kids. Quite frankly, if Bosh goes to Miami, it’s likely Miami won’t see that conditional pick in a while, anyway.
Miami does have all it’s first round draft picks over the next few years, but if Bosh and Wade play together, just how good are those picks going to be?
And if he really wants to go there, he could just sign outright and the Raptors would get back nothing.
9. New Jersey
New Jersey isn’t on Bosh’s apparent list of teams, but I think it should be. And I think they will probably attempt to make a push for him.
While the Nets didn’t get the number one, or even number two, pick, they are still in good shape. They have a borderline All Star at PG, one of the best promising young centers in the game and they have enough cap room to sign a max free agent outright and still have enough left over to sign another good free agent.. What they don’t have are a lot of pieces to send back in a sign and trade, though.
Without no chance of drafting Wall, Harris is probably set at PG, so the only other players the Nets will probably offer to send back are Yi Jianlian (who is a PF that doesn’t rebound or play defense well- no thanks), and three good young shooting guards in Courtney Lee, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Terrence Williams. Of course, they are incredibly similar to the Raptors three good young shooting guards. In other words, there’s really nothing the Raptors need or could even use.
8. Dallas
Now, I never mentioned Dallas in my list of teams Bosh would or could choose, mostly because I see it as a longshot. Bosh is an awful fit beside Dirk, and I can’t see them wanting to switch Bosh for Dirk. Nonetheless, it’s a destination that is sometimes mentioned because Bosh is from Dallas and because they are probably going to make big changes after crashing and burning out in the first round. Plus, if Dirk ends up leaving they will need to find a way to replace him.
They have a fair number of pieces they could offer in a sign and trade, but few young players the Raptors could use. Their top 7 rotation players are all at least 29 years old. The Raptors could try and bring in a third team to try and pawn off some of their veteran talent, but otherwise, bringing in veteran players on the Raptors is only going to keep them a mediocre team.
Some Raptor fans are high on Rodrigue Beaubois, but he’s really a big unknown, playing only 12 mpg with the Mavericks this past season, and has not shown any ability whatsoever to run a team (3.8 apg/36 mpg). Besides him, the Mavericks have no one the Raptors could use to build for the future.
The one player that probably has the most value would be Erick Dampier and his expiring contract. Now, I’ve already discussed that expiring contracts are not going to be nearly as valuable next year as they have in the past, but what makes Dampier’s contract so special is that the final year, in which he makes $13 million, is not guaranteed. What this means is that the Raptors could turn around and trade Dampier to a team wanting immediate cap relief. Could this be used in a trade for Elton Brand and whoever they pick at #2, if the rumours are to be believed that they are willing to include their pick to anyone that takes Brand off their hands. It’s always dangerous to take a player in a trade you have no intention of keeping, so Colangelo would probably want to bring in another team immediately and do a three team trade like he did when he signed Turkoglu. What makes it more thought provoking is that teams tend to deal with the same teams over and over again, and Colangelo has done deals with both Dallas and Philadelphia.
Blogger’s Note:
In the last 7 years, the Mavericks have lost in the first round four times, despite having home court advantage every single year. In the last 7 years, they have become the first #1 seed to lose against a #8 seed in a 7 game series (3rd all-time) and the first #2 seed to lose to a #7 seed in a 7 game series (5th all-time). And they are only one of three teams in NBA history to lose in the Finals after being up 2-0. During that time, only one player has remained the same: Dirk Nowitzki. Dirk’s best year in the league, the year he won MVP, his Mavericks lost in the first round to Golden State. At what point do you think Cuban and Nelson realize that this simply is never going to work, no matter how different pieces you try and throw together?
7. New York
I’ve never been a fan of doing a sign and trade with New York and at one point saw it as the worst option but not anymore. One problem is that the Knicks play in the same division as the Raptors and letting your best player go to a division rival is like having your ex-girlfriend move next door. It’s not a good scenario.
And there was a lot of talk about them sending back David Lee. I can’t stress what a bad idea this is. Lee is a good rebounder, and was one of only 4 players in the league to average 20-10 (Bosh, Howard and Randolph were the others). Unfortunately, he doesn’t play a lick of defense and there is a real question of how much he would score in a system not designed inflate a player’s stats.
Bloggers Note: If I was an owner, the last guy I would ever hire to be my coach would be Mike D’Antoni. His teams don’t play defense, there’s there’s virtually no chance of winning a Championship, but because of the style of play, his players all score and rebound more than they would in any other system. So in other words, players end up looking far better than they actually are, which means you have to pay a premium to keep them, but you still don’t win a Championship.
It’s not as if New York has nothing to send back. Wilson Chandler, Toney Douglas and Bill Walker are all good, young role players who I think would help the Raptors. AND they play defense. Unfortunately none of them really have star potential and the Knicks have given away so many first round picks that getting any back is unlikely.
A lot of Raptor fans seem to like the idea of getting back Gallinari, but I’m not sure he’s the best player to get back. He’s talented, but he’s not a good rebounder or defensive player, and hasn’t that been a problem all year for the Raptors? Besides, I think New York would want to hold onto him.
Now a scenario that is being discussed more and more is to send a bad contract, like Turkoglu with Bosh to New York. This would be the only intriguing thing about a sign and trade with New York. It would allow the Raptors to basically forget about making the mistake of signing Turkoglu last summer. No, one one wants Eddy Curry on their roster, but having Curry for one year is no doubt better than having Turkoglu for four. Especially if Turkoglu is the problem he was off the court this past year.
Now if the Raptors end up getting Chandler, Douglas and Douglas as well as a nice big trade exception, as well as get rid of Turkoglu and his contract, I wouldn’t be all that disappointed.
6. Chicago
Chicago was not only on this apparent list of Bosh’s, but it makes the most sense. Even if no other free agent joins him in Chicago, they’ll still be a good team. The one thing they lack (inside scoring) is what he can bring. And if they sign another free agent, they’ll be an instant contender.
Now, it’s not that Chicago doesn’t have pieces to offer. They have a few. Deng, while vastly overpaid, would immediately become the Raptors best player and Hinrich, while also overpaid, is a good outside shooter and gritty defender. Getting one of those players, as well as Taj Gibson, would pretty good talent to get back. And if they have draft picks they could send back, too.
There are problems, though. First of all, Deng really is vastly overpaid and is also injury prone, plus he plays the same position as one of the Raptors other overpaid players, Turkoglu. I’m not sure you want to spend $24 million on one position and not have LeBron James playing that position. And Hinrich, while the type of player the Raptors need, is going to be 30 years old next season, and would be much more valuable on another team. And any picks they get will probably be low first rounders.
The worst thing, though, is what MIGHT happen. If Bosh and LeBron both decide to sign in Chicago, The Bulls will be unstoppable for the next 5-6 years, at the very least. They’ll end up giving Jordan’s Bulls a run for their money for number of Championships.
The only silver lining would be that there would be a chance, no matter how slim, that the Bulls could end up sending Joakim Noah back if they want both Bosh and LeBron. Here’s the question, though. Would you agree to send Bosh and Bargnani in exchange for Deng, Noah, Gibson and Hinrich?
Next Monday, I’ll continue….
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