Is This Season Salvageable?

Posted on | March 31, 2010 | No Comments

I haven’t posted much in the last couple of months. It’s been a combination of me simply being too busy and also not really having much to say. I had actually started a post about what makes a good GM, but after recent happenings, I decided to put it off.

Now, I’ve tried to remain fairly even keeled on this blog, and scolded Raptor fans time and time again for overreacting, which they tend to do. Just before the All-Star break, I looked back at the predictions I made at the beginning of the season. For the most part, they were looking very good. At that time, the Raptors were solidly in the 5th seed in the East, a few people outside of the Canada were actually saying there was a possibility that Bosh was going to re-sign with the Raptors, and their defense, while never great, was looking, for the most part, half decent.

What a difference a month and a half makes.

At this point, getting anything higher than the 8th seed seems unlikely, and the only thing preventing the Raptors from completely falling out of the playoff race is that the Bulls are losing just as much as the Raptors are. It’s like watching two paraplegics race for the finish line without wheelchairs.

Now, there have been quite a few who have predicting gloom and doom for the Raptors from the beginning. Some have even said that nothing has changed, that they just don’t have the same soft schedule. Apparently they haven’t watched the Raptors much this season. Despite what some claim, the descent we have seen was not inevitable. It’s not just a tougher schedule that are doing them in. Wins against the Magic, Mavericks, Spurs and Lakers during their good run debunk this theory. Sure, they’ve never been a very good road team (their recent win against Charlotte, notwithstanding), but even during their horrid play in November, they never had trouble scoring, even on the road. In March, they failed to score 100 points seven times. That’s more than November and more than both January and February put together. Obviously this isn’t simply a matter of their defense failing.

The question, apart from why, is what happened?

Things were going well for the Raptors even after the All-Star break. The fall, however can be traced back to February 17th in a game against Memphis. Bosh came down awkwardly on a play late in the game, injuring his ankle. He was having a good game, too. Including that game, Bosh had been averaging 28 ppg, 12.4 rpg and even 3.8 apg.

On many teams, when the star player goes down, it gives a chance for the secondary players to shine, which can be a benefit to the team down the stretch. Unfortunately, this didn’t happen with the Raptors. No one stepped up, and in fact, a couple of players seemed to get worse. Bargnani defenders always claimed that he would play inside more and rebound more without Bosh. Not surprisingly, this proved not to be true. Bargani suffered when the defenses were able to focus their attention on him. As I’ve said in previous posts, a high percentage of Bargnani’s shots are assisted, which tells you a little about his ability to create his own shot. While Bargnani is a gifted shooter, he has very few one on one moves. Outside of his pumpfake and drive, there’s little in Bargnani’s arsenal that would allow him to get a good look at the basket without a lot of help from teammates. He’s still not comfortable enough in the post to be able to get points there on a regular basis, and has an annoying habit of fading away on shots even when being covered by much shorter defenders. And his rebounding didn’t improve at all without Bosh. The blame cannot be laid only by Bargnani’s feet though.

When Turkoglu signed with the Raptors, the hope was that he would make up for his defense and rebounding woes with great playing making and end-of-game play. While he has never lived up to his big contract, when the Raptors were winning it was easier to overlook because he was helping them win, even if he wasn’t playing like he was expected (or at least hoped). Without Bosh, he needed to step up. It did look like he might turn the corner after Bosh went down, and even had his second highest point output during this time, but then started playing poorly again and then got hurt himself. Not that it mattered, the team might have played better in his absence. More on him in a moment.

Bosh returning didn’t help. The team didn’t return to it’s winning ways and Bosh didn’t seem like the same player. In the 20 games before his injury, Bosh only failed to reach double digits in rebounding 5 times. In the 12 games since he returned, he’s already missed double digits 6 times. And his scoring is down considerably. More importantly, though, he doesn’t seem to have the passion he had before the injury.

The team played so poorly, that Triano re-inserted Calderon into the starting lineup, realizing that Calderon often had the second unit playing better than the first. It didn’t help.

And while the defense had resorted to November-like numbers, the offense often struggled just as much. The team would go through long droughts at the worst time. Things like that simply weren’t supposed to happen with this team. Defensive problems were expected, as were rebounding deficiencies, but this is one of the potent offenses in the league.

This problem seemed to come to a head in close games against Denver and Miami which saw them score 15 and 17 points respectively in the fourth quarter, giving up seemingly comfortable leads. Incidentally, Turkoglu played in neither of them. The first game, Turkoglu was sick, and the second game, he sat on the bench in uniform as Triano publicly disciplined him for apparently going out to a club the same night he was too sick to play.

In the game against Charlotte, Triano trotted out a very different starting five that played during the Raptors winning ways in January. Bargnani, Bosh, Weems, Wright and Calderon would present a less passive and more defensive minded starting unit. They still struggled to score in the first quarter against Charlotte, but they also stopped Charlotte from doing much of it, allowing Charlotte to score only 18 points, the least they allowed a team to score in the first quarter since December. They still let Charlotte score more than 100 points for the game, but with Triano seemingly content with this starting unit from here on in, it’s a good bet this team will be a little more focused on defense than it was before.

The question is, whether or not it matters.

Yes, obviously the Raptors need to play well for the remainder of the season to keep their playoff berth, but the issue goes much deeper than that. Even if the Raptors win 6 of their remaining 9 games, which is unlikely, the chance of catching Charlotte for the 7th spot is practically non-existent. So finishing a game above .500, the 8th seed, and a first round match-up with Cleveland, is what seems to await Toronto. And this is the best case scenario. Even the most optimistic Raptor fan and writer now sees little chance of Bosh re-signing this summer. Far too much has happened since the All-Star break. This team has proven far too fragile and far too soft for Bosh not to believe he can do better elsewhere, whether it is true or not.

So if the Raptors lose Bosh, is a first round drubbing against Cleveland really going to help the team? Especially if this means losing their first round pick to Miami, which making the playoffs would guarantee? Yes, the Raptors could get back a player or two, or perhaps a draft pick, in a sign and trade, but you can probably count on one hand the number of times a sign and trade has worked out well for the team doing the signing and trading. Ironically, the Raptors signing and trading Delfino last summer seems to have worked out well for the Raptors (getting Weems and Johnson), but nothing beyond equal value would really help the Raptors in a sign and trade for Bosh, and that’s not going to happen. Not with a player of Bosh’s calibre. If the Raptors are a .500 team WITH Bosh, how good do you think they’d be if they, for example, got David Lee in return. Yes, Lee would give the Raptors a poor man’s Bosh a a much lower price, but a poor man’s Bosh is not going to improve the team. Even with an apparently much better coach, the Knicks are sitting at 10 fewer wins with Lee as their best player.

The problem with the Raptors, as evidenced by their collapse when Bosh was injured, is they have absolutely no one who can step into the lead role. Not anyone who will give the Raptors any chance of sniffing the playoffs again. I’ve argued with several readers on this site about whether or not this team is a failure. And that was before their collapse. The one problem with their arguments is that they were so short-sighted. These impatient fans wanted to see results NOW, however unrealistic that was. They tried to convince me that this team would never be a contender, which I never disagreed with. It’s just that I felt that Colangelo had the pieces and ability to make the moves that would allow the team to eventually become a contender. The main component to the Raptors ability to becoming a contender was that Bosh re-sign. And up until five weeks ago, that looked likely.

You see, it’s a lot easier to get good return on players from a good team than players on a bad team. If the Raptors had finished well, and even won a few playoff games, teams wouldn’t be lowballing him for trade offers. A team that is obviously desperately in need of new players are not going to find many good deals out there. The last five weeks has made Colangelo’s job this summer extremely tough.

I asked whether it’s worth it, if Bosh leaves, to end the season in the playoffs, losing the first round pick, or finishing in the lottery, and keeping the pick. There are a few problems with this. The first is that we simply still don’t know what Bosh’s plans are. It’s now likely he’ll leave, but it’s not a certainty. More importantly, though, is that if the Raptors finish out of the playoffs, the only real advantage would be if they finish in the top 3 in the draft lottery. This years draft looks even weaker than last years. No one the Raptors could get in the 11th spot (which is the lowest pick they could get if they don’t get one of the top 3) would likely have any impact whatsoever on the Raptors, at least not in the next year or two. Is it worth missing the playoffs when you’ll have less than a 1% chance of moving up?

If the Raptors do make the playoffs, there is always a chance that they play well, or at least some individual players play well. It’s at least higher than them moving up in the lottery. This, along with the benefit of the younger players getting some playoff experience, is reason enough to hope they actually beat the Bulls in the slow foot race to the post season.

Hey, it gives you something to cheer for!

Category: Bobcats, Bulls, Knicks, NBA, Raptors

Does This Mean We Can Plan The Parade Route Again?

Posted on | February 4, 2010 | 18 Comments

Well, I guess all is right with the world since the Raptors won again. Whew!

The Raptors certainly didn’t look great against the Nets, but with three main players, including two starters, missing, I wouldn’t expect a perfect game. If it wasn’t for the Raptors vaunted depth, New Jersey might be riding high on win #5 right now.  Despite the Raptors missing over 31 ppg, however, they still managed to score over a 100 points for their 15th straight game.

I was having a discussion with someone over at Raptors Republic about, of all things, the Raptors. This fan, after the loss to Indiana, jumped to point out all the problems with the Raptors, insisting that the loss was an indication of everything that was wrong with this team. A fact he at first dismissed and then grudgingly accepted was the fact that the Raptors are a young team. Regular readers know that I’ve discussed this before, but it’s worth going over again.

The ten players on the Raptors roster who play at least 10 minutes per game and have played in most of the games, so can be considered regular rotation players, have an average age of 24.6 years old.  And only two rotation players are above the age of 26, Turkoglu and Calderon. That’s very young.  It’s especially young when you look around the league a little…

Orlando: 27.8
Charlotte: 27
Miami: 27.2
Chicago: 26.4
Atlanta: 26

Even Atlanta, which has been discussed so much about being a young team, has a lot of older rotation players. Bibby and Joe smith are over 30, and Jamal Crawford is 29. Joe Johnson is 28.

And notice that the three teams the Raptors are currently battling for the 5th seed are all pretty veteran teams, even Chicago, who have Brad Miller, John Salmons and Kirk Hinrich all 29 or over.

It turns out that the Raptors have the fourth youngest rotation in the entire league.

Golden State: 24.9
Toronto: 24.6
Portland: 24.5
Memphis 24.4
Oklahoma City: 23

Interestingly, Toronto, Portland, Memphis and Oklahoma City all are within 1½ games of one another in the league standings.

So to get back to this discussion I was having, this fan felt that I should not be happy with where the Raptors are right now, and that, since it was obvious the Raptors would not be going deep into the playoffs, that the season was pretty much a failure.

Well, unlike this fan, I tend to look at the big picture. The Raptors are an extremely young team that has played .625 basketball since November, and look to have a bright future ahead. Hopefully Chris Bosh will view things the same way come the summer.

Category: Blazers, Bobcats, Bulls, Grizzlies, Hawks, Heat, Magic, NBA, Nets, Raptors, Thunder, Warriors

Big Wins, Dumb Players & Some Perspective

Posted on | January 17, 2010 | 1 Comment

Isn’t it great being a Raptor fan right now? One of the best teams in the NBA, and one of the best road teams, come into the ACC and the Raptors trounce them. After a first quarter where they struggled and it looked like it might be a long night for Toronto, they took charge and outscored the Mavs in every quarter after that, including the often worrisome third. I mean, come on, you had to have been a little worried when the Raptors missed their first five shots in the third quarter.

Bosh was the high scorer, and Bargnani hit some big shots, including a 30 foot fade away with the shot clock down, but Calderon was the man in this game. Without him coming in and changing the game in the second and leading the run in the third and fourth, it might have been a different outcome.

Speaking of Calderon, despite arguing in my last post that he should be starting, he’s looking very good coming off the bench right now. It’s not, however, for the reason some might say. I think he’s a better point guard than Jack and would help the team as a starter, but having him kick start the second quarter with his playmaking has been a HUGE boost for the bench, especially with Belinelli out of action the last couple of games. In the six games he’s been back from injury, the Raptors have outscored their opponent in the second quarter four times. The spark he consistently brings off the bench is something we haven’t really seen from the Raptors in a while. I think it works at the moment because the starting unit is so offensively potent and Hedo makes up for the deficiencies Jack has as a distributor.

That said, I don’t know if Calderon will, or should, come off the bench for the rest of the season. Without him in the lineup, the Raptors only reached 100 points 4 times (in 13 games). With Jose in the lineup, the Raptors have only failed to reach 100 points 5 times, and have not scored under 100 since he’s returned from injury, even against the defensive minded Celtics. For all his deficiencies, his playmaking skills are sorely underrated by many Raptor fans and the team goes through far more scoring slumps when he’s not on the floor. The first quarter against Dallas showed that. If we see more first quarters like that one, expect Calderon to be moved back into the starting lineup.

Now, I mentioned Bargnani had another good game, and regular readers of my blog will know I’ve never been a big fan of his. I’ve questioned his rebounding, his defense and his ability to score consistently. Well, his defensive play against Tim Duncan and Dwight Howard has been well documented, but he’s also boxing out better and playing defense like I hoped he would at the start of the season. The kicker? Bargnani has actually been rebounding like he’s a 7 footer. In fact, in a game like the one against Indiana when he couldn’t hit anything (4 of 14), in the past he would have been useless, but he made himself valuable by grabbing a career high 17 rebounds. Still, the fact that he’s had six games of 6 rebounds or less in the last ten shows he’s not entirely turned the corner.

And while the Raptors are still in the 6th spot behind Miami, in the East, only Cleveland has been playing better basketball than the Raptors since Christmas. Sure, Boston’s been hobbled and beat the Raptors, but the only real disappointing loss the Raptors have incurred (read the only time they lost to a worse team) since Christmas has been against Indiana. It’s actually been great to be a Raptors fan lately.

Of course, some perspective is needed. Although the Raptors currently sit only 1 percentage point below Miami for the 5th seed in the East, if they were in the West, they be below both Memphis and New Orleans, in the 12th spot. Ironically, Memphis and New Orleans are two of the three teams in the league that have a better record than the Raptors over the last 10 games. The other one? Charlotte. This is another worrisome issue. Charlotte is only a half game behind Toronto, and have beaten good teams (Cleveland, San Antonio, Phoenix and Houston) and they’ve beaten hot teams (Memphis and Chicago). In fact, the only team Charlotte played that isn’t either in the top 8 in their Conference or above .500 was New York. Who they lost to. Go figure.

OTHER NBA NOTES

How about Shawne Williams? He gets sent away by the Dallas Mavericks- paid NOT to play- and then when he is traded to the Nets, and waived, he ends up being charged on felony drug charges. Apparently he was intending to sell “a codeine-based syrup.” Excuse me? He’s probably going to jail for selling cough syrup? And exactly why would he need to be selling codeine-based syrup, anyway? Isn’t his $1.5 million salary he gets for not playing basketball enough? Maybe he’s worried about the fact that he’s probably out of the league next year and that cushy NBA salary will be gone. Then again, if he actually took his game seriously and worked on it, fulfilling some of the promise that made him a 17th pick by Indiana a few years ago, he wouldn’t be in this predicament.

Speaking of stupid, it’s almost a little disconcerting how Gilbert Arenas is being erased from the NBA. The Wizards took down all pictures of him, including a massive one outside of the arena, the NBA has excised his image on all commercials, and now Adidas has ended their `relationship’ with him. I guess he and Tiger Woods can hang out together and talk about what it feels like to shoot your own career in the head with your own stupidity.

Even with these very public examples, professional athletes will continue to behave inexplicably believing that they will never get caught. Why? Because professional sports doesn’t exactly attract the brightest people on earth. And yet, people complain Tim Duncan is boring.

Category: Bobcats, Mavericks, NBA, Raptors
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