TORONTO: Exceeds Expectations

5. Jonas Valanciunas

It’s deja vu all over again. Last year, a team above them unexpectedly took an athletic defensive power forward which resulted in a higher ranked big man unexpectedly falling to the Raptors. Colangelo and the Raptors brass probably can’t believe their luck. I was afraid they might still take Knight, but Colangelo showed he is indeed focused on the future, rather than the present.

Valanciunas will fill the void at center the Raptors have been lacking for, well, ever. While apparently a lot of Raptor fans are unhappy with the pick, I think they’ll eventually regret that as Valanciunas is the type of player that Raptor fans love. He’s a high energy player who hustles, defends and rebounds. English, though, is not his strong suit.

On the other hand, the pick they got from the Heat, which they traded to the Bulls for James Johnson, could have been used to pick Corey Joseph at 28, who went one spot later to the Spurs. Who knows if that’s who Colangelo would have picked, as he was projected to go in the second round, but I’ll certainly be comparing their careers. And since the Spurs are pretty much never wrong…

I would have liked to see them try and scoop up another pick, but it’s not a big deal that they didn’t.

SAN ANTONIO: Exceeds Expectations

29. Cory Joseph

Traded George Hill for Indiana’s 15th pick, Kawhi Leonard.

I assumed the Spurs would exceed expectations, and again they have. Trading for Leonard is huge, especially since he was projected to go in the top ten and dropped. He’s the type of defender than the Spurs love, is in the perfect situation, and should step in Bruce Bowen’s shoes, that have been empty for a few years.

If on of my sleepers, Toronto’s Cory Joseph couldn’t get drafted by the Raptors, then the Spurs would have been my second choice. And it’s incredible timing because they might have their replacement for Hill. Yes, he projected to go in the second round, but I think he has first round talent and so, apparently, do the Spurs.haunt them. Burks should be a decent player, but guys like him are a dime a dozen.

CHARLOTTE: Exceeds Expectations

7. Bismack Biyombo
9. Kemba Walker

Traded Stephen Jackson for Sacramento’s 7th pick and Corey Maggette.

Sold 39th pick, Jeremy Tyler to Golden State, I’m guessing for cash.

It hurts to say it, but Charlotte actually did well. I was surprised that they passed on Knight for Biyombo, as they’ve been looking for a real starting PG for, well, their entire existence, but they resisted temptation and went with a guy who I think will be better down the road. I also look forward to watching Biyombo and Tyrus Thomas being on the floor at the same time. The front row needs to watch out.

Maggette was a disaster in Milwaukee and now brings his brand of scoring and no defense to Charlotte. He’s probably going to lose games for them, but that’s kind of what they wanted, so maybe it’s a good thing?

Walker fell, but not as far as I thought he might. I think it’s still a pretty good pick at 9, but Charlotte seems to like picking decent PGs with little upside.

CHICAGO: Exceeds Expectations

23. Nikola Mirotic
30. Jimmy Butler

Traded 28th and 43rd picks for Houstons 23rd pick, Nikola Mirotic.

Butler was very efficient offensively at Butler, and is a very good defender, so the Bulls may have a sleeper on their hands.

How much do you think the Spurs are pissed at not getting Mirotic, who is exactly the type of player they usually scoop up at the end up the first round? He’s a huge steal, but will play overseas for a couple of more seasons. That’s fine with the Bulls.

DENVER: Exceeds Expectations

22. Kenneth Faried
26. Jordan Hamilton
56. Chukwudiebere Maduabum

Traded Raymond Felton for Portland’s 26th pick, Jordan Hamilton, and Andre Miller.

Traded for Laker’s 56th pick, Chukwudiebere Maduabum, somehow.

Although I haven’t confirmed that Denver is, in fact, keeping Faried, if they do this was a very good draft day. I would have liked to have seen them get more for Felton, but Miller is a good, veteran PG that will probably be shipped elsewhere soon. Plus they were able to pick up another pick and a SF who has a chance to be a decent pro.

Faried is the type of player that everyone loves and helps you win. So why didn’t he go higher? Probably because he’s not a scorer and a little undersized.

I have no idea who Chukwudiebere Maduabum, but on his Draft Express profile, he’s listed as Chu Chu. I think he’s worthy of picking just for that. He immediately is in the running for best All-Tim NBA name.

MEMPHIS: Exceeds Expectations

49. Josh Selby

Selby was considered a first round talent, so this has to be considered a steal. Where they’ll find room for him, is another thing.
DETROIT: Exceeds Expectations

8. Brandon Knight
33. Kyle Singler
52. Vernon Macklin

Although I question whether he can play PG, Knight was projected to go in the top 5 and dropped to 8th, so Pistons fans have to be happy. Of course, he kind of presents the same problems that Rodney Stuckey, who’s also a combo guard they tried to turn into a point guard, did.

Singler is never going to be a star, but last year he was considered a middle first round pick and they got him in the second round. I think he’ll hang on and have a decent career as a bench player.

DALLAS: Exceeds Expectations

Traded their 26th pick to Portland for Rudy Fernandez

The rich get richer. Dallas has no use for a rookie and no one picked there was going to help them like Fernandez. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up starting next year.

LAKERS: Exceeds Expectations

41. Darius Morris
46. Andrew Goodelock
58. Ater Majok

Without a first round pick, they were able to pick up a decent prospect, in Darius Morris. This might be the second year in a row they get at least one keeper from the second round.

PHILADELPHIA: Exceeds Expectations

16. Nikola Vucevic
50. Lavoy Allen

Vucevic should end up being a pretty good pro and probable starter. At 16, in this draft, that’s pretty damn good.

CLEVELAND: Meets Expectations

1. Kyrie Irving
4. Tristan Thompson
32. Justin Harper

Irving will probably be the best player, so it was no surprise he was the first pick.

Thompson was the first big surprise of the night. And while I don’t think it’s a bad pick, since I think Thompson is going to be a very good pro, but he was a big reach at 3. Valanciunas would have made much more sense, but apparently Cleveland wants to make an impact immediately. Something they might regret down the line.

I think Cleveland should have offered Minnesota everything but it’s first pick to move up to 2 and draft Williams. If they had come out of the draft with Irving AND Williams, their future would have looked A LOT brighter.

Justin Harper is a stretch 4 that isn’t very big and probably won’t be much of a rebounder in the NBA. If he sticks, it’s because of his shooting. On Cleveland, that’s devoid of talent, he might, but with Antawn Jamison and J.J. Hickson as well as Anderson Varejao, who will probably be traded this summer, it’s puzzling why they’d take another power forward.

NEW YORK: Meets Expectations

45. Josh Harrellson

New York gets the guy Enes Kanter apparently made into the player he is today. So says Harrellson.

MINNESOTA: Meets Expectations

2. Derrick Williams

Traded Jonny Flynn for Houston’s 23rd pick, Nikola Mirotic, and Brad Miller.

For some reason the T-Wolves don’t end up with the 23d pick, so it’s basically a Flynn for Miller deal. Not sure why they’d do that.

Keeping Williams is the right move even though he doubles up on Beasley’s skills. He should be better than Bealsey and should give the Wolves some star power.

UTAH: Meets Expectations

3. Enes Kanter
12. Alec Burks

Although a lot of people had Brandon Knight going to Utah for the months leading up to the draft, they apparently changed their mind with less than a week to go. And while I was a little missed he didn’t fall to the Raptors, I think Utah will be VERY happy they chose Kanter instead of Knight.

Of course, while I think they made the right decision at 3, passing up Leonard, who is probably exactly what the Jazz need, is probably going to

OKLAHOMA CITY: Meets Expectations

27. Reggie Jackson

Jackson is a combo guard who joins an already crowded Thunder backcourt. I really don’t know where he’ll find minutes. I wonder why Oklahoma didn’t simply trade out of the draft.

PORTLAND: Meets Expectations

21. Nolan Smith
51. Jon Diebler

Traded Andre Miller for Raymond Felton

Traded Rudy Fernandez to Dallas for 26th pick, which they gave to Denver in prearranged deal.

Getting Felton for Miller is a great deal for Portland. He might be the young point guard they’ve been looking for all these years.

Unfortunately, picking Nolan Smith over Faried, who they could really use, was a mistake.

ORLANDO: Meets Expectations

53. DeAndre Liggins

He’s a player that was on Kentucky, but now he’s not.

ATLANTA: Meets Expectations

48. Keith Benson

He’s got legit size for an NBA power forward, and he’s stronger than he looks. For the 48th pick, the Hawks did well.

For a team hitting their ceiling, I would have liked to have seen them a little more active. Maybe after the new CBA is signed, whenever that happens.

MIAMI: Approaching Expectations

28. Norris Cole

Somehow got the 28th pick from Chicago to draft Cole, a PG, who should provide insurance in case Bibby is not re-upped.

BOSTON: Approaching  Expectations

27. JuJuan Johnson
55. E’Twaun Moore

Traded their 25th pick for the 27th pick.

Johnson is a decent player, but I don’t see him making any impact on the Celtics, either now or down the line. But would anyone else have?

Moore is an undersized shooting guard, but I’m guessing what attracted Boston was the ability to tell people they drafted JuJuan and E’Twaun. And both are American.

MILWAUKEE: Approaching Expectations

19. Tobias Harris
40. John Leuer

Traded Corey Maggette and 10th pick for Stephen Jackson and Charlotte’s 19th pick, Tobias Harris.

Getting rid of Maggette, who was a disaster, is good, but is Jackson really what they need? And how much longer does he have? Harris is a good pick, though, who’s been compared to Shane Battier.

PHOENIX: Approaching  Expectations

13. Markieff Morris

Morris might make a pretty good role player on a good team. Phoenix, however, needs home runs, not singles. They have a lot of role players and the engine that makes them go, Nash, is nearing the end of his career.

GOLDEN STATE: Approaching Expectations

11. Klay Thompson
37. Jeremy Tyler
44. Charles Jenkins

So they STILL have Monta Ellis, yet decide to draft yet another shooter, while Kawhi Leonard  and Nikola Vucevic were still available. Thompson might be the best player available, for all I know, though, and if Jerry West thinks so, it’s probably true.

I don’t know about Tyler, though, who seems to have the physical tools, but needs maturity.

WASHINGTON: Approaching Expectations

6. Jan Vesely
18.Chris Singleton
34. Shelvin Mack

A lot of teams seemed high on Vesley, but I don’t understand the attraction to him. He’s 6’11 and athletic, but he’s not a great scorer, can’t shoot, isn’t a good ball handler, will probably struggle defensively at the 3 and is a poor rebounder for his size. He’s apparently got a good motor, though, and he’s got a very hot girlfriend, so those are both pluses.

Singleton was on my don’t draft list and I really don’t see how he’s going to play with Vesley. Neither can shoot, but Singleton has even fewer skills than Vesley.

NEW JERSEY: Approaching Expectations

25. Marshon Brooks
36. Jordan Williams

Traded their 27th pick, JaJuan Johnson for Boston’s 25th pick, Marshon Brooks

When I first saw a trade between Boston and New Jersey involving Brooks, I thought it was a blockbuster. No, it was not Brooks Lopez, but Marshon Brooks, who bring his great shooting and horrible defense to a bad defensive team.

CLIPPERS: Needs Improvement

37. Trey Thompkins
47. Travis Leslie

The Clippers traded away a unprotected lottery pick that ended up being Kyrie Irving, who’s probably just what the Clippers could have used to solidify them as one of the teams of the future. What they ended up drafting were two solid NCAA players with probably very little chance of sticking in the NBA.

SACRAMENTO: Needs Improvement

10. Jimmer Fredette
35. Tyler Honeycutt

Traded their 7th pick for Milwaukee’s 10th pick, Jimmer Fredette, and John Salmons

So, the Kings trade John Salmons away, only to trade back for him a couple of years later. And move down in the draft in order to do it. Fredette might be a great shooter, but I don’t see how he helps Sacramento. He’s not going to be a good defender and will do nothing for the chemistry. Keeping the pick and taking Knight or Walker would have been preferable.

HOUSTON: Needs Improvement

14. Marcus Morris
38. Chandler Parsons

Traded Brad Miller, the 23rd pick and a future first rounder for Minnesota’s 20th pick, Donatas Motiejunas, and Jonny Flynn.

Houston’s GM, Daryl Morey, intrigues me. He’s apparently a big advanced stats guy and was initially a guy a lot of Raptor fans wanted to replace Colangelo, but he makes the most head scratching trades. Motiejunas was another on my do not draft list. He doesn’t defend or rebound, but should be able to score a lot, which makes him basically a bigger version of Kevin Martin

Morris is, yet another young, decent power forward to join Houston’s stable of other decent, power forwards. Apparently you can never get enough of them.

Parsons is a typical Rocket small forward. he does a whole lot of things, but none of them really well.

INDIANA: Needs Improvement

Traded their 15th pick, Kawhi Leonard, to the Spurs for George Hill

Don’t the Pacers already have enough PGs who aren’t really PGs? George Hill looked good in the Spurs system, but you need to watch out for those guys, because there’s a good chance he won’t look nearly as good out of it. And while the Pacers already have enough SFs, don’t they know not to trade a draft pick to the Spurs?

NEW ORLEANS: Incomplete

Traded completely out of the draft by trading the 45th pick, Josh Harrellson, to the Knicks for cash.

Like my offseason grades, I’m going to look at each team and look at what they did as a whole, starting with the Raptors…

TORONTO: Incomplete

- James Johnson for Heat’s 2011 First Round Pick

For the Raptors, they didn’t make a big splash, but they did make one trade. Miami’s first round pick in the upcoming draft for James Johnson. To be honest, I was not a fan of Johnson coming out of Wake Forest. It didn’t instil me with confidence when both his name and Earl Clark’s were both mentioned as possibilities for the 9th pick that was eventually used to pick DeMar DeRozan. Both Johnson and Clark had fatal flaws that I turn me right off prospects. Things like “Low Basketball IQ”, or “Lack of Defensive Fundamentals” or worst of all, “Lack of Focus”. The “focus” issue is something that scares me off more than anything. This is actually something I’m going to discuss in a later post, but suffice is to say, I wasn’t a James Johnson fan.

Now, I’m giving Toronto an incomplete grade on this for a couple of reasons. The first is that no one really knows what kind of player James Johnson is. Yes, I know he played well in his Raptor debut against his old team, the Bulls, but that was one game. Let’s see how he does for the remaining 24 before we make any judgements.

The other reason they get an incomplete is because we really don’t know whether this draft is going to be as bad as people seem to think it is going to be. And that’s not just the players, but the value of the draft picks. Right now, it seems draft picks for the upcoming draft are being given away like Carmelo Anthony Nugget jerseys. Personally, I would have liked to see if the Heat pick could have been packaged to move up in the draft, or to try and draft a sleeper. Still, I don’t dislike the trade because the Heat’s pick looks like it’s going to be around 27, and the chances of finding a quality player that far down is extremely slim, especially if this draft is as bad as people say.

I’ll say this, if Johnson continues to play like he did in his debut, then this trade is a home run. He showed everything the Raptors lack, and he’ll be given every chance.

OKLAHOMA CITY: Exceeds Expectations

- Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic

- Nazr Mohommed for Morris Peterson and D.J. White

This past summer, I gave the Thunder a “Meets Expectations” grade because, while they made some good moves, they failed to fill the hole in the middle. With the only good defensive player in the middle being Serge Ibaka, and Cole Aldrich looking like a potential bust, the Thunder desperately needed another good big man. I suggested, before the New Year, trading Jeff Green, Aldrich and a 1st round pick to Cleveland for Anderson Varejao, but Varejao’s season ending injury pretty much killed that possibility. Instead of Varejao, they went out and got Kendrick Perkins.

Am I the only one who thinks this might shift the balance of power in the West?

Oklahoma’s biggest weakness this year has been their defense. They can score, but with Green and Krstic as their starting front court, they had trouble stopping people.

Now they have one of the best defensive centers in the league, in Perkins, and one of the best up and coming defensive big men in the league, in Ibaka. While they still lack a true low post scoring threat, a fact that might haunt them come the playoffs, this could be the move that launches them from pretender to true contender. Especially in the West where San Antonio and the Lakers are the two teams you have to go through. Now oklahoma can match their size.

And then they grabbed Nazr Mohammed as Perkins’ backup. Yes, Nazr is vastly overpaid, but it’s expiring, so it doesn’t matter.

The only question is whether or not Perkins is healthy. If he is, then Oklahoma made out the best of anyone.

DENVER: Exceeds Expectations

- Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Timofey Mozgov, Kosta Koufos, Knicks first-round pick (2014 or later) and the Warriors’ second-round picks in 2012 and 2013 for Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Shelden Williams, Renaldo Balkman and Anthony Carter

I already discussed this deal, but I’ll just say that with their back against the wall and everyone knowing where Carmelo would eventually go, Denver did very well. I thought they had secured 2 first round picks, but apparently not. Still staying out of this year’s draft probably isn’t such a bad thing. They got some nice young talent they can eventually flip for something, or try and develop themselves. Either way, they’ve got a lot of choices, now. And they’ll probably still compete for a playoff spot with the talent they have.

NEW JERSEY: Exceeds Expectations

- Deron Williams for Devin Harris, Derrick Favors and two 2011 first-round picks

- Brandan Wright and Dan Gadzuric for Troy Murphy and Net’s 2112 second-round pick

No deal has ever surprised me like Deron Williams going to the Nets. In this day and age, where everyone seems to know everything, that one came out of left field. And without any warning. Personally, I think Deron might be a better player than Anthony, but either way, I think he’s going to help the team more than Anthony ever could. He makes his teammates better and should be able to attract some talent to the Nets, something they failed to do this past summer.

Getting Williams was certainly a risk. Favors could blow up to be a great player and they gave up their lottery pick in the upcoming draft, which apparently has no protection, plus Golden State’s protected pick next year. Plus, Williams might just leave in a year and a half. But I doubt it.

And getting something for Troy Murphy was pretty good. Wright can’t seem to stay healthy, but there was a time when he held a lot of promise. New Jersey can afford to gamble on him.

HOUSTON: Exceeds Expectations

- Hasheem Thabeet, DeMarre Carroll and Memphis’ first-round pick for Shane Battier and Ishmael Smith

- Goran Dragic and Phoenix’s protected first-round pick for Aaron Brooks

I’ve been a fan of Battier since his days at Duke, and would love him to eventually go to a real contender, where he deserves, but Houston was not going to make the playoffs, and he probably wasn’t going to return as a free agent this summer. Getting a project like Thabeet is a low risk gamble that could pay off big, especially if he fulfills the expectations that made him a 2nd pick.

Brooks, on the other hand, is the type of PG I dislike. He’s a shoot first PG that makes his teammates grumble with his shot selection and unwillingness to pass. Yes, he can score, but I like my PGs to make everyone else better, and Brooks doesn’t do that.

Plus, they got a couple of first round picks. Not a bad days work.

PORTLAND: Meets Expectations

- Gerald Wallace for Joel Przybilla, Dante Cunningham, Sean Marks and two first-round draft picks

Portland got exceptionally better, and gave up very little. Wallace can play PF and give them a small lineup that can still rebound, or play SF and give them a big lineup. With Roy still a question mark, getting a guy like Wallace, who can score, rebound and defend, was important. Plus, he’s only 28 despite being the league 9 years.

CLIPPERS: Meets Expectations

- Mo Williams and Jamario Moon for Baron Davis and the Clipper’s 2011 first-round pick

Another surprise, since Baron Davis had been playing fairly well recently. Of course, the smart GM would use that opportunity to trade him. Who knew the Clippers had a smart GM?

One of the worst things the Clippers have done in the last decade (and there’s been a lot to choose from) might have been giving Davis that huge contract. In 11 seasons in the NBA, Davis has had exactly one exceptional season where he was completely healthy. The season before the Clippers signed him away from Golden State.

I’ve never been a fan of Mo Williams but if it’s a choice between him for 3 more years at $8.5 million and Baron Davis for 3 more years at $14 million, I’m going to choose Mo every time. And while giving up a lottery pick might seem like a steep price to get rid of Davis, the last thing the Clippers need right now is another young player, and no one’s liking the look of this draft, so it might end up being worthless, anyway.

ATLANTA: Meets Expectations

- Kirk Hinrich and Hilton Armstrong for Mike Bibby, Maurice Evans, Jordan Crawford and Atlanta’s 2011 first-round pick

I thought trading for Bibby a few years ago was fantastic for the Hawks. They desperately needed a veteran PG and Bibby had been in the playoff trenches. But he’s not the player he once was, and his defense is now pretty much non existent. Hinrich is a massive upgrade, and is an excellent defense. Plus, like Bibby, he doesn’t need the ball to be effective, which is important playing next to Joe Johnson.

NEW YORK: Meets Expectations

- Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups,Shelden Williams, Renaldo Balkman and Anthony Carter for Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Timofey Mozgov, Kosta Koufos, Knicks first-round pick (2014 or later) and the Warriors’ second-round picks in 2012 and 2013

As I said, I already discussed this deal, and New York obviously came out of the trade with the best player, but I’m not convinced New York is ever going to be a serious contender with Anthony and Amare.

NEW ORLEANS: Meets Expectations

- Carl Landry for Marcus Thornton

I’m not a big fan of either of these guys, but Thornton wasn’t getting any time because he apparently doesn’t play defense, and New Orleans is sorely lacking inside scoring. Enter Landry, who doesn’t rebound and isn’t a great defender, but can score inside.

CHICAGO: Meets Expectations

- Miami’s 2011 first-round pick for James Johnson

Johnson was obviously not going to break into the Bulls’ lineup, so getting a first round pick was probably the best thing they could have done.

MEMPHIS: Approaching Expectations

- Shane Battier and Ishmael Smith for Hasheem Thabeet, DeMarre Carroll and Memphis’ first-round pick

Giving up Thabeet and a first-round pick was a big gamble for a player who might not eve re-sign with Memphis this summer, but Battier is exactly the type of player they need. A steady, smart veteran who doesn’t need the ball to be effective and who knows how to win. Memphis obviously hopes he’ll rub off on everyone else on the team.

I still think they should have traded Zach Randolph while his stock was so high.

BOSTON: Approaching Expectations

- Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic for Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson

- Sacramento’s second-round pick for Marquis Daniels

- Cleveland’s second-round pick for Semih Erden and Luke Harangody

When Kendrick Perkins got injured a couple of seasons ago in the playoffs, it cost the Celtics the title. He might be one of the best centers in the league at defending Dwight Howard. Trading away a very good defensive center in his prime is a huge, huge risk. One I think might come back to haunt the Celtics.

I like Jeff Green, and I think not being forced to play PF will do him a world of good, and I think he’s a very good defender at the SF position, but basically the Celtics gave up a starter for a bench player. They are going to have to rely on Shaq a lot more at center, and this quote from Doc Rivers doesn’t do a lot for me: ”Shaq’s a key component of this,” said Rivers. “We need to get Shaq healthy and Shaq will be healthy. If Shaq plays great, this deal was actually really good for us. That’s on Shaq. We have to get Shaq in great shape, get him ready, get him healthy. He’s really going to be important for us in the playoffs.”

Plus, the Celtics are going to have two players (Shaq and Rondo) who can’t hit free throws. You don’t think that might hurt them?

SACRAMENTO: Approaching Expectations

- Marcus Thornton for Carl Landry

- Marquis Daniels for a second-round pick

I’m not quite sure why Sacramento would want Thornton or Daniels, since they already have Evans Casspi and Garcia, but I guess they didn’t give up much, so why not.

MINNESOTA: Approaching Expectations

- Anthony Randolph and Eddy Curry for Corey Brewer

Yes, Minnesota is acquiring assets, but Corey Brewer is more productive than Anthony Randolph, and Minnesota agreed to take on Eddy Curry to get him. Randolph better end up panning out.

WASHINGTON: Approaching Expectations

- Mike Bibby, Maurice Evans, Jordan Crawford and Atlanta’s 2011 first-round pick for Kirk Hinrich and Hilton Armstrong

I find it hard to believe that the best Washington could have gotten for Hinrich was Mike Bibby and another year of his contract and a late first-round pick in a bad draft. It’s not bad, but I wouldn’t say it was good, either.

CLEVELAND: WHY??????

- Baron Davis  and the Clippers 2011 first-round pick for Mo Williams and Jamario Moon

- Semih Erden and Luke Harangody for a second-round pick

I can understand wanting to get the Clippers first round pick (probably a top 10 pick), but is it really worth taking on Baron Davis when you couldn’t even get rid of Antoine Jamison and his awful contract?

PHOENIX: Your Kid Is A Moron

- Aaron Brooks for Goran Dragic and Phoenix’s protected first-round pick

I have absolutely no idea what Phoenix is doing. Brooks is a brutal PG because he can’t pass, so he’s the anti-Nash. And they gave up a first round pick when they should be collecting them.

UTAH: Incomplete

- Devin Harris, Derrick Favors and two 2011 first-round picks for Deron Williams

As I previously said, this trade came out of nowhere, and I’m not quite sure how I feel about it from Utah’s perspective. If Williams was indeed on his way out of town, as some have said, then trading him now was a fantastic idea. And getting what they did for him was very good. Personally, I liked the Nets offer for Carmelo better than the Knicks, and the Jazz ended up getting it.

The Rookies and Sophomores were announced and while DeMar DeRozan was selected, Ed Davis was not.  Was Davis deserving? Sure, but  wouldn’t call it a snub. Favors, who got in over Davis, has similar numbers and with the Nets not having anyone with any chance to make the team, I’m guessing the NBA wanted them to have some presence. It’s likely Davis will replace Blake Griffin, anyway, since most feel Griffin is going to be playing in the big game.

As for the real All-Stars, here would be my selections:

WEST

Guards:

Like other years in the West, there are more All-Stars than spots available for the All-Star game. Guys who probably should make it, but don’t really have a shot, like Steve Nash and Tony Parker, would probably make it in the East.

Manu Ginobili

The best player on the best team in the league. Yes, Tim Duncan may be still the franchise player, but Ginobili is the guy who carries this team and he’s having a career year now that he’s finally injury free. The reason the Spurs are my favourite to win the title is partly because of this guy. No one gets better at crunch time than him. No one.

Deron Williams

Deron deserves a better team than he is surrounded by at the moment, and Utah’s high level mediocrity is not his fault. Without him, this team wouldn’t have a shot at the playoffs.

Forwards:

Someone deserving is going to get left off, and, like the guard position snubs, at least one of them would probably make it if he had this season in the East.

Dirk Nowitzki

Before he went down with injury, Dallas was the second best team in the league. Without him, they were 2-7. It’s not hard to do the math on that one. Nowitzki will never be the defensive force that most Hall of Fame big men are, and because of that probably won’t ever lead Dallas to a Championship (Dallas has underperformed consistently in the playoffs with him), but there’s no doubt this team is far, far much better because of him.

Blake Griffin

Blake Griffin very well might be having the best rookie season since Tim Duncan. He’s 12th in scoring, 4th in rebounding and even dishing a very good 3.6 assists per game, 3rd among ALL big men (PFs and centers) in the league. And he’s getting better every month. Plus, he’s actually helping the Clippers not suck, which is enough to get my vote. Still, if he wants to become truly great, he’s going to have to vastly improve his defense because right now he makes Amare Stoudemire look like Bill Russell.

Center:

Remember when the West had Shaq in his prime and David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon still playing very high level basketball? Now, in order to find a healthy, All-Star worthy center, you have to use the David Stern added rule that you can pick someone who ALSO plays center.

Pau Gasol

Gasol has struggled this year, partly due to an increased workload, but he’s still been one of the main reasons why the Lakers, despite their struggles, are still number 2 in the West.

Wildcards:

Kevin Love

He scores 21.4 ppg and grabs a monstrous 15.5 rpg despite taking 148 shots from beyond the arc and being 10th in the league in 3 point percentage. Oh, and he’s one of the top passers at his position. Sure, he plays for the basement dwelling T-Wolves, but as his video tells us, he’s got the numbers

Russell Westbrook

Some thought he was Oklahoma’s MVP in the early part of the season, and he’s shown some kinks in his armour (why is a PG who shoots 43% from the field taking 17 shots per game), but he’s still helped Oklahoma move up to the fourth seed in the West.

Who I left off:

Obviously I’ve left off some very good players. Tim Duncan was probably the most difficult omission, since he plays on the best team in the league, right now, but does anyone really think he’s not going to be selected to replace Yao?

Tony Parker and Steve Nash I already mentioned, and it’s a shame they won’t make it because they are having All-Star seasons. There just simply isn’t room.

Another guy I’d love to include, but can’t, is LaMarcus Aldridge. He’s carries the Blazers since Roy went down and if he had played like he has in January for the entire season, I’d be tempted to include him. Still, he’s quietly becoming one of the best PFs in the league.

I know Monta Ellis and Zach Randolph put up great numbers, and I included Kevin Love because of his great stats, but I simply can’t see either player ever being a major contributor for a contender. These are prototypical good players on bad teams.

EAST

Guards:

The guard position is very much like the Center position in the West. Obviously not as glaring, but still not exactly strong.

Rajon Rondo

It’s amazing how much he’s improved since he was drafted. His lack of jumpshot might very well be the Celtic’s Achilles heal, but he’s still managed to shoot over 50% from the field, so he’s not exactly hurting the team much.

Ray Allen

He’s having his best season as a Celtic and looking nothing like the creaky, aging player that sometimes looked like he might not have a lot left in the tank the last year or two. I don’t know what the Celtics are giving him, but I want some.

Forwards:

Kevin Garnett

Back when Garnett went down with injury, in 2008, I was adamant that the Celtics were hiding the seriousness of the injury. They never satisfactorily explained the injury or commented how long he’d be out. The deeper the Celtics got in the playoffs, the more fishy it looked that he didn’t look like he was trying to return. Honestly, after that, I figured his career was pretty much done. Especially after the start last year. But whatever the Celtics are giving to Allen, they must also be giving to Garnett because he looks fully recovered.

Chris Bosh

Remember when everyone thought Chris Bosh was the problem in Miami during their horrible start? No one has any harsh words to say about him now (well, except for some Raptor fans). He’s not the best player on the Heat, but he’s just as important as Wade and LeBron to their success.

Center:

A lot has changed in the East at the center position when Jamaal Magloire made the All Star team for the sole fact that he was the best player at a position that didn’t include many good players.While the position is not exactly teeming with All-Star worthy players, with guys like Horford, Noah, Bogut and Lopez, the East looks like it won’t have any trouble filling the position any time soon.

Al Horford

Joe Johnson is the team’s leading scorer, but I think Horford has become the team’s best player. When Johnson went down, the team barely faltered, but they lost Horford, I think they’d be in trouble. He’s not a great scorer, but he can score if needed, and he really doesn’t have a weakness.

Wildcards:

Paul Pierce

The main reason the Celtics didn’t falter when Rondo went down was Paul Pierce played like an MVP. Like his other veteran stars, he’s getting old, but he’s proven he’s still got a couple of good years left, at least.

Carlos Boozer

The selection I’m least happy about. Noah is the second best player on Chicago, but because he’s injured, he’s out. I could easily be swayed to select Joe Johnson, instead, but Boozer had a big impact on Chicago, so he sneaks by. He’s still not a good defensive player, but he’s decent enough that he’s not a liability on that end.

Who I left off:

Obviously Joe Johnson was the hardest cut. And I’m not thrilled about having FOUR Celtics, no matter how good the team is. San Antonio only has three and they have the best record in the league. The truth is, though, that all four Celtic All-Stars are deserving.

Joakim Noah will be a perennial All-Star when he’s healthy, and his injury is the only thing that prevented his inclusion.

Andrew Bogut might end up being a perennial snub since both Noah and Horford should probably always be ahead of him. He’s still a very good player and would probably be an All-Star in the West, at center.

Josh Smith again misses out on the cut. Good, but not good enough.

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My end of the year post, which detailed 5 trades that needed to happen in 2011, may not have been so far out, after all. A few weeks after I posted that column, and not long after Anderson Varejao ended his season with an injury, it came out that Oklahoma was in discussions with Cleveland to try and get…you guessed it, Anderson Varejao.

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Speaking of my trades that need to happen, the Nets have pulled out and I think it’s probably the best thing for them. Carmelo has never proven to be enough of a difference maker to want to dismantle your team to get him. He’d certainly be a nice player if they can sign him, but if I were the Nets, I wouldn’t try and hit a home run with a kid’s bat (that’s the only analogy I could think of). Especially if the deal includes the aging Richard Hamilton and Chauncey Billups, who are still good, but aren’t going to get the Nets to the promised land.

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One more thing about Andrea Bargnani after last week’s column. Kevin Love, who is averaging 15.5 rpg has taken 3 fewer three point shots, while shooting a much higher percentage, than Andrea, this season. So much for the excuse that Bargnani doesn’t grab as many rebounds because he takes so many threes. Obviously Kevin Love doesn’t listen to excuses.

In his first couple of seasons, Hibbert did show some promise, but his he simply couldn’t keep up with the pace of the NBA enough to be anything more than a limited roll player. And then Indiana did some extensive testing to discover Hibbert has athlete induced asthma, and Hibbert lost, what looks like, about 20 or 30 pounds. The difference has been amazing. This year, Hibbert’s averaging nearly 30 mpg (and it would be more if he didn’t play limited minutes in so many blowouts), scoring 15.5 ppg, grabbing 8.6 rpg, blocking 1.9 bpg and dishing out 3.2 apg- good for 3rd on the team. Plus he’s playing very good defense. In other words, he’s a legit All-Star candidate, especially since Indiana is one of the better teams in the East this year, especially recently.

But this post is supposed to be about the Raptors, here is my analysis of the first 21 games of the season for the team. Tomorrow (or more likely a few days from now) I’ll discuss each player individually.

RAPTORS:

Last year after 21 games the Raptors were 8-13 and fans were wondering whether the investments they had made in Hedo Turkoglu and Jarrett Jack were big mistakes and some were starting to call for Chris Bosh to be traded before he left on his own.

With both Turkoglu and Jack both traded away, and Bosh plying his trade in Miami, this year’s Raptor squad has exactly the same record as last season after 21 games: 8-13. But make no mistake about it, this team is nothing like last year’s.

This year’s team is faster and more athletic. They run more (scoring 6 more fastbreak points than last year), leading the league so far, but score less. The also share the ball less than last year and shoot a much lower percentage, despite the number of fastbreak points. In other words, if they don’t score on the break, they have much more trouble scoring. Last year, while Bosh could be a bit of a ball stopper, and Turkoglu could be well, underwhelming, both of them helped the team score in the half court, especially Bosh.

This season, the Raptors simply don’t have anyone they can give the ball in the half court to and ask to create something. Bargnani is the team’s leading scorer, but is not consistent enough and still doesn’t create enough on his own to be able to dump him the ball and be asked to score. Barbosa is probably the player best equipped to fill that roll, and has on occasion, but he’s also just as likely to lower his head and drive 1 on 3, taking a bad shot in the process.

While the team is scoring less, and having a little more trouble doing it, the scoring is a little more balanced. There are 8 current players (not including Peja) who are averaging at least 9 ppg compared to just 5 last season. Yes, Bargnani is averaging 8 ppg more than then next Raptor, but Bargnani doesn’t dominate the ball as much as Bosh did, so it’s in the hands of the other players more.

Amazingly enough, the Raptors are actually getting to the line at a higher rate, this season, despite losing Bosh’s nearly 10 FTA per game. Like scoring, it’s a more balanced approach, with no one dominating at the line. DeMar DeRozan leads the team with 4.9 FTA per game.

Of course, this more democratic approach doesn’t  extend to passing the ball, as I mentioned. When the team does pass the ball, they play well and usually win. But they are in the bottom third in the league in assists, which is not surprising considering only 3 Raptors average more than 1.7 apg.

So while the team isn’t as good offensively as last season, they are better defensively and on the boards.

Bosh was a very good rebounder last year, but between Reggie Evans, Amir Johnson and now Ed Davis, the Raptors have made up for his absence. All three players are, at least, as good rebounders as Bosh was. The problem is, outside of those three (not counting Joey Dorsey) the Raptors are still a poor rebounding team. Without Reggie, the Raptors have lost more battles on the boards than they have won. Bargnani still rebounds like a SG and Weems and DeRozan don’t rebound as well as you’d think two sickeningly athletic players should. And while Kleiza rebounds decently for a SF, he’s been playing a lot of PF since Evans was injured, and doesn’t measure up there. In fact, the only player, outside of the PF position, that rebounds at a good rate for his position is Jerryd Bayless. Per game, he’s 6th on the team, and per minute is behind only Evans, Dorsey, Amir and Evans- yes, he rebounds at a higher rate than Bargnani.

So while the Raptors are one of the better rebounding teams in the league, and are much improved over last year, there are still areas of concern on the boards. Good teams generally don’t let one or two players do all their rebounding, so improvement have to be made.

While the Raptors appear to be much better defensively this season, the numbers suggest that is not entirely true. They allow 2 fewer ppg, but they score less. And they actually allow teams to shoot approximately the same percentage as last year. In both those stats Toronto is near the bottom of the league.

Of course, there are numerous ways to look at how a team defends, and this year their defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possession) has gone from 113.2 (30th in the league) last year to a comparatively stingy 109.5 (21st in the league). So obviously some improvements have been made.

It’s not necessarily that the outgoing players were worse defensively than their replacements (although they were), but the defensive strategy seems to be better, thanks probably in large part to PJ Carlesimo. Former Raptor assistant coach, Marc Iavaroni, had a reputation as a good defensive coach, but despite being a good defensive player, the teams he’s coached on have not been good defensive teams. In fact, Phoenix, Memphis and Toronto all became better defensive teams AFTER he left, and the Clippers appear to be worse defensively, this year. It’s hard to call all of that a coincidence.

The Raptors are actually better defensively now than they were just a couple of weeks ago thanks to the Jack-Bayless trade and the addition of Ed Davis. Both Davis and Bayless are above average defenders, and give the Raptors an interior and perimeter defensive presence they have lacked in the past. When Davis and Bayless are on the court with Amir Johnson, the Raptors are formidable defensively. And not one of them is over the age of 23 years. If 23 year old Julian Wright can get some minutes, the Raptors could put a good defensive team on the floor for the first time in a long time.

While the team is not as good offensively, and still has a few rebounding issues without Reggie, they are a much younger team with simply more long term potential than the one that took the floor last season. Outside of Reggie Evans, only 2 players on the Raptors rotation is over the age of 26, and that’s Calderon (29) and Barbosa (28). While that’s going to hurt them in the win column this season, it’s going to pay off in the long term.

They’re currently on pace to win 31 games, but I doubt they win that many by season’s end. Either way, I think making the playoffs, as some fans are talking about, while winning in the low 30′s hurts more than it helps a team like the Raptors. Colangelo has said that wins are not nearly as important as the development of the players, this year, and I couldn’t agree more. So, unlike last years squad, which was built to compete immediately, this year’s team shouldn’t be judged on it’s win total. And I like what I’ve seen so far.

—

So tonight the Raptors play New York, for the third time this season, and only a few days after a loss at the ACC Centre. The Knicks are red hot, having won their last 5, and 9 of their last 10. Amare Stoudemire is playing MVP calibre ball and Raymond Felton is at least putting up All Star level stats. And much like every other game the Raptors play, it’s incredibly difficult to predict how they will do, so I won’t.

Speaking of the Knicks, what the hell has happened to Anthony Randolph? When he was traded to the Knicks, many, including myself, thought it might be a good chance to finally have a chance to show his stuff. Unfortunately, in the games he’s played, he’s looked lost and has gotten a DNP-CD in 11 of his last 15 games. While it’s difficult to judge a player who is still so young and has played so little in 2+ years, it’s starting to look like Randolph might never fulfill the potential that caused Golden State to make him a lottery pick.

On the other end of the spectrum, Landry Fields gives many Raptor fans unrealistic expectations for the type of player that can be drafted with a 2nd round pick. Fields lasted until the 39th pick before the Knicks drafted him (and was booed by Knicks fans) behind such notable 2nd round picks as Dexter Pittman, Terrico White, Darington Hobson and Canada’s very own Andy Rautins, who was drafted one spot ahead of Fields, yet languishes on the bench. At least Rautins is collecting an NBA paycheque, though. The other players didn’t even make their team’s roster, which shows how much of a crapshoot the 2nd round is.

Speaking of players coming out of nowhere, Wesley Matthews, who is the player I heavily criticized Utah for letting go to Portland, is currently tearing it up. This undrafted players is averaging nearly 20 ppg in his last ten, after taking the starting SF position from Ncolas Batum, while playing excellent defense.

What has been talked about most about both Fields and Matthews is their high basketball IQ. It’s almost as if their high basketball IQ has made them the valuable players they have become despite neither of them having all that much “upside” coming out of college.  Weird, huh?

So I was trying to figure out an interesting format I could use to discuss the upcoming season. I came up with the idea to combine my predictions and season preview. Now, most predictions have Toronto finishing at or near the bottom of the league. The line in Las Vegas apparently gives the Raptors 27 wins. The consensus on ESPN has the Raptors finishing last in the East. Basketball Prospectus has them finishing last in the league. Things don’t look good for the Raptors.

So do I see things any different?

Well, before I answer that, let’s look at what I said last season. My prediction was that the Raptors would finish with 45 wins which would put them somewhere in the 5th to 8th seed in the East. If the team continued at the same pace that they were at going into the All-Star break, I would have been correct. I also said they wouldn’t make it to the second round. Well, I was right about that, wasn’t I?

The 45 wins I projected was higher than most media outlets projections of the Raptors. So am I going to continue to be more optimistic than the pundits to the south? Well, you’ll have to read on to find that out.

First some questions (and answers)…

Who will be the Raptors leading scorers this season?

Unlike most years, when there’s really no question of who the leading scorer will be, this year it’s wide open. There are 3 players who, I think, have a chance to lead the team in scoring. Bargnani is the one most expected before the season started, but he didn’t exactly light up the preseason. He never once hit for 20 points and shot just 35%, although his percentage did improve as the preseason went on. What he does have going for him, in this race for leading scorer, is that he shoots the ball. A lot. In fact, he took 19 more shots than the next Raptor player in the preseason, so it’s a good bet that he’ll be in the race. Really, it’s his best attribute, so if he’s not scoring at least 15 ppg, what exactly are they paying him for?

Barbosa is one that a lot of people overlooked when talking about the Raptors leading scorer, but no one played better than him in the preseason. Unfortunately, the injury which hurt him last years apparently isn’t completely healed and he revealed he may need surgery before the season is out. Of course, the amount he shoots the ball certainly won’t help matters. He shot at a rate barely less than Bargnani. Two things need to happen for him to lead the team in scoring. He needs to get minutes and remain healthy.

Kleiza is one I mentioned that had a good shot at leading the team in scoring. He was scorching hot in the preseason and showed a penchant for shooting. He shot at a rate just below Bargnani and Barbosa. Kleiza doesn’t create the way Barbosa does, but he moves better without the ball than Bargnani.

I don’t believe DeRozan will be the leading scorer for the Raptors, but he should get his points simply because he gets to the line better than anyone on the team.

It’s very likely that DeRozan, Bargnani, Barbosa and Kleiza could all average at least 14 ppg. That’s a far cry from last season, when only Bosh and Bargnani scored over 11 ppg. Right now, I think it’s too close to call who is going to lead the team, but I think those four players will end up scoring somewhere between 14 ppg and 18 ppg.

Who will be the team’s MVP?

Does a lottery team really have an MVP? Well, if it does, and he’s on the Raptors, my bet is going to be Kleiza. I think his scoring and toughness will endear him to fans, and by December, he’ll be the #1 option on offense. I think he’s better suited to the position than any of the other Raptors, at the moment, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be the leading scorer. I just think he’ll be the one the offense goes through. I just hope he passes more during the regular season than he did in preseason.

Who will be the team’s starting power forward when the team heads into the All-Star break?

Reggie Evans is currently the team’s starter at PF, and it seems to work since his rebounding prowess makes up for Bargnani’s lack of. Of course, it’s quite possible that Evans won’t even be with the team at the All-Star break. Putting him on display as a starter is probably doing wonders for his trade value, as is his expiring contract. Either way, though, the starting spot is really Ed Davis’ to lose. He may struggle a bit when he finally comes back from injury and plays in his first NBA game, but he was drafted to be the starter and I think that’s where he’ll end up being by the All-Star break.

So, who is going to be traded?

I already mentioned that Evans might get traded, and everyone knows that Calderon is on the block, but my guess for player who is most likely to be traded before the deadline is Barbosa. This is contingent on him remaining healthy, and I think the likelihood of him being traded is less now that he’s possibly due for surgery, but I think his game is just too enticing to a contender for them not to try and pry him away from the Raptors. And as much as I like him, he’s a luxury for a lottery team. The Raptors have plenty of depth at both guard positions even without him.

So who do I think he’ll eventually go to?

Well, I don’t know if it’s a prediction as much as a trade that simply makes sense, but I can see a Barbosa for Gortat and a draft pick trade going down. Barbosa is exactly the type of creator the Magic lack, and Gortat is wasting away on the bench making too much money. And every Raptor fan would probably be thrilled to see a guy like Gortat in a Raptor uniform.

I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see Evans shipped off, but I also have a feeling that Calderon is going to finish the year with the Raptors.

Is Jack going to remain the starting PG?

So if I think Calderon is going to stay, does that mean he’ll stay on the bench, or eventually replace Jack in the starting lineup? Well, I think that it will end up being very similar to last season, when they split the starting PG duties almost 50/50. Both players have their strengths and their weaknesses and reading too much into how each player played in the preseason is dangerous. The Raptors will struggle at some point with Jack starting, and Calderon will come in to replace him. Who’ll end the year starting is anyone’s guess.

Will Amir learn how not to foul?

I really have no idea. Quite a few of the fouls he committed during the preseason were incredibly stupid. Unfortunately he may never get it, but as I said before, don’t read too much into the preseason. I would be nice to see some encouraging signs, but I’m going to leave question unanswered for now.

How many games will the Raptors win?

Before the preseason, my guess was that they would win anywhere from 25-30. That was right in line with the Las Vegas line of 27 wins. After watching them in preseason, I’m going to do them one better. 28 wins. I think this won’t put them last in the league or even in the conference. It will give them a good chance at a high lottery pick next June, though.

EDIT: I meant to add this but had server problems last night and couldn’t.

Will Bargnani average at least 20 ppg and 9 rpg?

Anyone who reads this blog will know my answer to this, but kshiz, over at the great site NBA Analytiks (which is also on the left sidebar), bet me over the summer that if Bargnani didn’t average at least 20 ppg and 9 rpg, he would agree to write anything of my choosing on my site, and I would do the same if Bargnani did reach those numbers, on his site. For the record, I’m going to predict 17.5 ppg and 6.5 rpg this season.

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So what about the rest of the league?

Here are my predictions…

The Champions:

- The Lakers. Miami may have the triumvirate, but the Lakers have the rings and got even better.

The Contenders:

- Miami, obviously.

- Orlando. Too many people are sleeping on them, and although I still think they need to make one more move, I like them to make it to the Finals.

- Boston. They’re old, and Shaq certainly hasn’t helped the last couple of teams he’s been on, but Garnett seems healthier than he has in years and they have pretty good depth, now.

- Dallas. I don’t think they’ve got a chance in hell at making it out of the West, but they should improve on their 50 wins last season. How they do in the playoffs is the biggest question.

- San Antonio. You can never count the Spurs out and with the addition of Tiago Splitter, they have more talent than they’ve had in a couple of years. Plus, Jefferson should perform better after a full year with the team.

- Portland. Injuries took their toll last year, and I think a lot of people are forgetting about them.

- Oklahoma City. Could this be the year Kevin Durant leads his team out of the second round? Almost definitely.

The Disappointments

- Phoenix. It’s a shame to see Steve Nash ending his career on a team that is going nowhere, but the Suns didn’t really help themselves in the offseason and will probably end up missing the playoffs.

- Atlanta. Overpaying Joe Johnson is going to come back to haunt this team that has no hope of being an actual contender. I think this will be the first times in 7 seasons the Hawks don’t win more games than the previous season.

- Denver. Whether or not Carmelo is traded, his future will hang over the team and doom it.

The Worst Team

- Detroit. There’s almost no one on the team I would want. The top five paid players are vastly overpaid, thus making them difficult to trade, and they looked horrible in the preseason. How long will Joe Dumars last before people start wondering whether he was the brains behind the Championship team or John Hammonds was.

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One last note, the Miami Heat lost against the Boston Celtics on opening night, which means the Heat will most definitely not go 82-0. My prediction is they’ll end up with 59 wins.