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Who Should Start For The Raptors?
Posted on | March 9, 2010 | 6 Comments
[Bloggers Note: Yes, I said I would do a post trade deadline analysis, but I got busy and now I just don't want to. Sue me.]
There’s been a lot of discussion about whether DeRozan should be replaced in the starting lineup, which might stop the Raptors from digging themselves in a hole early in games, as they have been. With the way the Raptors have been playing all year, however. the question that needs to be asked is whether this team is building around the wrong players.
Now, I’ve never been a big fan of +/- stats, or any stats in particular, when gauging a player’s worth to a team. I think it ignores factors that simply aren’t logged in the box score, such as defense, hustle and veteran savvy. Sometimes, however, it does give an interesting picture of what’s going on. Take for example, the stats on 82games.com. What previously was called the Roland Rating, but now seems to be called the Simple rating, is an average of a player’s +/- production and on/off court results. It’s not the greatest indicator, but it’s half decent barometer for how much a player is helping his team win.
Now, take a look at the Raptor’s next opponent, the Lakers. The top five players are the five best players, Kobe, Gasol, Odom, Artest and Bynum. These are the players that play the bulk of the minutes for the Lakers. Boston’s top five players are their starters: Garnett, Pierce, Rondo, Allen and Perkins. Same goes for Atlanta. It’s not like that for every team, but there’s enough of a pattern for me to want to take a closer look at the Raptors roster.
As most Raptor fans know, the Raptor starters are Bosh, Bargnani, Turkoglu, DeRozan and Jack.
The top five Raptors according to 82games.com’s Simple/Roland Rating? Bosh, Evans, Belinelli, Johnson and Calderon.
Things get even more interesting when you look at the Individual Player Floor Time Stats, the top five being Johnson, Wright, Bosh, Belinelli and Calderon.
Now, I don’t pretend to know what all these statistics mean, or whether or not they actually mean anything what-so-ever, but when you look at all the players, you realize two things. The first is that all, but one, are at least average defensively. The second thing you notice is that Bargnani, Turkoglu, Jack and DeRozan are not listed.
As readers of this blog know, I’ve often been critical of Bargnani. I HATE the fact that he can’t rebound the ball for his size, and while I applauded him for his improved defense a little while ago, he seems to have taken a couple of steps back in that category lately. In fact, he’s taken a couple of steps back in just about EVERY category lately. In the last five games, Bargnani is averaging 14.4 ppg, 4 rpg and 0.6 bpg. Those that said that Bargnani would rebound more and score more inside without Bosh have been silenced. Bargnani actually played worse, and less inside, without Bosh. I don’t know if any player is more responsible for the current slump the Raptors find themselves in than Bargnani. When he plays good defense and scores, the Raptors usually win. Unfortunately, after nearly four full years, it’s becoming fairly clear that Bargnani can never be a player you can count on. He needs to score to be effective, but isn’t a consistent enough scorer to be a first or second option on a contender, and doesn’t do anything else well enough to warrant heavy minutes if he’s NOT scoring 15+ a game.
Turkoglu has at least shown that he can be a starter on a contender. Unfortunately, that was only one season, and he’s currently not playing at that same level. If he can get back to that level, it’s obvious that Turkoglu could easily be a starter again for a contender. With his below average rebounding and weak defense, he would need a team with an above average defense and rebounding front line. This describes Bosh, but not Bargnani.
Jack is a peculiar case. He doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses that the other starters not mentioned do, and he’s actually one of the Raptors more complete players. He hasn’t been all that consistent, though, and with him in the starting lineup, the Raptors have often started games badly. He certainly doesn’t have the acumen for running an offense that Calderon has. And his defense is not where I thought it would be.
Now, I actually feel that DeRozan has done a half-decent job this season. I said at the beginning that if he had a season similar to Courtney Lee’s rookie season, then it would be a success. Well, in nearly every statistical category, including PER, DeRozan’s numbers are pretty similar to Lee’s. The two things that Lee was better at was Defense and 3 point shooting. Of course, Lee was 3 years older than DeRozan is, so that is a big factor. I never had a problem starting DeRozan, because he was playing well enough, and it was a good way of helping him grow. Earlier in the season, I argued against those who said he should be replaced in the starting lineup and I still believe I was right. Hell, their record since December 5th was pretty damn good, so I’d say it was a good choice. And while I think it was not alright to replace him then, I think now might be the time to. Two things have changed. The first is that he seems to have hit the rookie wall. The second, and most important, is that as the playoffs approach, wins become more important. Until now, DeRozan’s development outweighed the few wins his starting might have missed out on.
Now, changing the starting lineup now might not be the best idea, and I don’t know if the change would benefit the team this season (although it very well might). I do think, however, that who the Raptors starters are needs to be looked at further this summer. Either way, there are questions that come up when looking at which players help the team win more? Would Amir Johnson be a better frontcourt partner to Bosh than Bargnani?Should Calderon be moved back into the starting lineup? Is Belinelli, because of his all around game, a more fitting starter at the shooting guard until DeRozan develops more, or should Wright’s defense be taken more advantage of despite his brain freezes on offense?
Personally, if I was coaching the Raptors, and didn’t have to take into consideration contracts or team investments in certain players, against the Lakers, and for the rest of the season, I’d trot out a starting lineup of Bosh, Johnson, Turkoglu, Belinelli and Calderon. I’d give those players the bulk of the minutes, and generally finish the game with those players, as well.
I know that Belinelli has been incredibly inconsistent this season, but as readers of this blog know, I’m a fan of his and feel he’d be more consistent as a starter. His one game as a starter was his best of the season, and he strikes me as the type of player that excels when not looking over his shoulder. He’s also much better defensively than many give him credit for. In fact, I’d say that he’s the second best wing player on the defensive end, behind Wright.
Calderon has not been good defensively this year, but with Belinelli and Johnson in the starting lineup, the team defense would improve enough that I think he would do alright. Besides, his offense is just too good to have him come off the bench when the team has been struggling so much to start games.
While Johnson is not the scorer than Bargnani is, he so much better on the boards and defensively that I actually think he might be a better player than Bargnani, at least right now. Just looking at PER, which is flawed and doesn’t take into consideration defense, they are neck and neck. When you then include defense, I’d rather have Johnson on the floor than Bargnani.
Turkoglu has shown he can play on a contender with better statistics, and while you could put Wright in here, Turkoglu’s worth can not often be seen on the stat sheet. Unlike Bargnani, Turkglu is not a one note player. He makes players around him better, and that’s not something that can be overlooked.
Bosh, Johnson, Turkoglu, Belinelli and Calderon is a starting unit that is dangerous offensively and should be able to play good defense. Calderon, Belinelli and Turkoglu can all create, score from the outside get the ball to the big men inside. Bosh and Johnson can clean up the boards inside and defend the middle. I think the team would be much more consistent offensively and defensively.
Who would your starters be?
An Open Letter To Raptor Fans
Posted on | February 18, 2010 | 8 Comments
Just a short post this time. For once.
Dear Raptor Fans,
Get some fucking medication!
It’s not the end of the world!
Sincerely,
Me
Yes, the Raptors lost a game they should have won. In fact, I, as well as I can only assume most others, thought that the Raptors had the game wrapped up. I had almost turned off the television when O.J. Mayo hit the three to bring Memphis within two. Maybe if I hadn’t, he wouldn’t have hit it. Who knows?
Anyway, the loss. After the game, I went to Raptors Republic to read their Roll Call, and couldn’t believe the vitriol from fans. Suddenly, Jose needed to be traded with Hedo, and Triano was the worst coach in the league. Sorry, but had Bosh hit that last second jumper in regulation, would these people still feel the same way? Probably not. Calderon played a fantastic game, almost single handedly brought the Raptors back in the second and was the only PG the Raptors had who could play a damn tonight, but all theses fans just point to how exposed he was on defense tonight. Sorry? I actually thought Calderon played one of his better defensive games of the season and was actually above average. But what these people are whining about is that he couldn’t guard and athletic freak six inches taller than him. No matter who the defender is, that’s called a mismatch for a reason. Rajon frickin’ Rondo would have a tough time stopping Gay, especially the way he was shooting.
Raptor fans, though, are always looking for someone to blame.
Triano, of course, didn’t escape their vitriol. One of the main complaints was that he subbed Turkoglu back in despite him playing poorly. Yes, he subbed a relative rookie out for the ten year veteran with the history of coming up big in the clutch and lots of big game experience. If Phil Jackson had done it, it would have been called an intelligent gamble. Triano does it and he’s an awful coach. And you know what? I’ve seen Phil Jackson, Gregg Popovich, Pat Riley, Chuck Daly and Jerry Sloan do the EXACT same thing. And I’ve seen it backfire. Sometimes that happens.
The other complaint against Triano was that he allowed Calderon to switch off to Gay, which obviously caused a mismatch Memphis exploited. The last time I saw this short a memory, I was swimming around my fishbowl in a former life! Apparently none of these complainers remember that the switching on defense strategy was one of the reasons the Raptors started turning things around in December. It’s worked well enough for them to go 22-11 since then, but an overtime loss against an offensively talented team, and suddenly it’s the worst strategy in the world.
The Raptors lost in overtime tonight, despite another great game by Bosh who is becoming above reproach, he’s playing so well. I find it funny that this happened on the trade deadline. I’m shocked there weren’t any calls to trade Bosh since he obviously won’t re-sign after tonight’s game.
PARTING THOUGHTS
Again, one last second shot goes down, and everything would be okay. And remember, this is the same Memphis team that beat the Lakers by two points a couple of weeks ago and amazingly, they decided not to dismantle the team before the deadline.
My next post is going to be about all the trades, as soon as I figure out where everyone landed.
The Trading Post
Posted on | February 16, 2010 | 1 Comment
When I worked at EA Sports a number of years ago, I was involved heavily in `Franchise Mode’. It was a natural fit for me and I loved it. Though gameplay was fun, it was managing the roster that I found the most fun. Making trades, drafting etc. What the game never achieved, however, was the hype surrounding this time of year in the NBA. I know I should probably take Doug Smith’s tact and hate this time of year because it’s not about the game, and involves innuendo and rumours, the bane of his existence, but I can’t help it. It’s fun.
Yes, it can be fun for the fan, but for the players it must be torture. Imagine you’re busy going about your job when you keep hearing your name popping up in rumoured transfers to other branches in different cities. It must be difficult.
So with all due respect to the players, this post is dedicated to discussing every rumoured deal, and maybe proposing a new one or two. There are simply too many deals to discuss every single one, so I’ll focus on a few that seem to have legs. First off, though, I’m going to look at Toronto’s situation.
TORONTO
For the first time in a while, the Raptors are virtually a non-entity on the trade rumour mill. It’s a good sign. Making a deal might end up backfiring for the Raptors, unless it seriously upgrades their talent level. Still, there are a couple of moves they could make that might improve them.
Andre Igoudala for Demar DeRozan, Amir Johnson and Marcus Banks
In an earlier post, I proposed including Calderon in a trade for Iguodala, in this one, he’s not included, but Philly gets more salary relief. Banks’ contract isn’t great, but it’s 3 years less than Iguodala’s. Including Amir gives them another young prospect, as well as an expiring contract. Obviously Iguodala would be a great fit for the Raptors, and might be enough to entice Bosh to re-sign.
Andris Biedrins for Amir Johnson and Marcus Banks
While Amir Johnson is having a great season for the Raptors, and fills a need, the fact that he’s a free agent this summer makes it a real possibility he won’t be back. Why not use his expiring contract to try and get something in return. Biedrins is underutilized in Golden State and overpaid, but his rebounding, shot blocking and mobility would be a great replacement for Johnson, and the fact that he’s got a long term contract means that he’ll be around for a while. The biggest plus, though, would be that he would be a better insurance policy for Bosh than Johnson.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Antawn Jamison for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Antawn Jamison is the perfect PF on the market to play with LeBron. He can score outside and inside, and would more than likely get them to the Finals. On the downside, he’s 33, so you’ve got to question how much longer he can play at such a high level. With LeBron not even being 25, the best way to keep him around is to surround him with guys who will be around for a while. Of course, Washington apparently doesn’t want to deal with Cleveland because of the history between them.
Amare Soudemire for J.J. Hickson, Z. Ilguaskas and Jamario Moon (or someone like him)
This would be the trade that would bring the best player, and since he’s indicated he won’t opt out, he’ll probably be with the team for at least another season and would be a huge enticement for LeBron to re-sign. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’s a good fit, and I think he might not like to be LeBron’s second fiddle. On the court, the Cavs currently have LeBron and Shaq to play inside, and I don’t see there being much room down there. Add Stoudamire, and if these guys don’t bump into each other, I’d be surprised. There are also conflicting reports that he my not want to be traded to Cleveland.
Phoenix would be getting Hickson, who is a talented, young big man, as well as Iguaskas’ expiring contract. If I was Phoenix, I’d keep looking.
Troy Murphy for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Troy Murphy might be the best PF for the Cavs to trade for. He’s younger than Jamison and a better outside shooter than Stoudemire. Plus he’s a better rebounder than either of them. I also think he might be cheaper to trade for. He’s the least sexy option, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this is who they end up getting.
A salary dump for Indiana, plus they get a good young prospect in Hickson. This might be the best deal out there and the best chance to rid themselves of Murphy’s contract. On the plus side, it opens up playing time for rookie Tyler Hansbridge.
Corey Maggette and Raja Bell for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Now, I haven’t actually heard Bell’s name in any proposed deal, but it works and makes sense. Maggette is having possibly his best year as a pro, and he’s probably more what Cleveland needs. He’s that second scorer that Mo Williams and Shaq simply aren’t. With both him and LeBron on the floor together, opposing teams couldn’t have a weak defender defending Maggette, as they can with Parker. If I was Cleveland, this might be my first choice of the rumoured deals.
Another salary dump, and considering that no one wanted to touch Maggette a year ago, getting Hickson might be a huge bonus. Golden State has too many wing players, too many scorers and not enough healthy PFs. This is a no brainer, in my opinion.
Now, I have only heard Stoudemire’s name, and no one from Miami, so this is purely conjecture. It would completely kill any cap room they would have this summer, but the question is, would they be able to get anyone better than these two? A lineup of Amare, Beasley, Richardson (either Jason or Quentin) and Wade would be pretty offensively potent. The rim would certainly get a workout. I don’t know how good they’d be defensively, though. Possibly even worse than the Raptors.
The latest rumour is that Miami is looking for a third team to trade with, which makes sense, because I don’t see the above trade going down. Despite their desire for Stoudemire, the only thing they really have of any value they are apparently willing to trade is O’Neal and his expiring contract. I’d be surprised if Amare lands in Miami because apart from the above deal, where they get rid of all but Nash’s big contract, there’s nothing Miami has that the Suns would want.
Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert for Tracy McGrady
I don’t know who’s reluctant to make this deal, but it had better be Philadelphia. I know Houston would be taking back salary, and Dalembert would have to move to the bench when Yao returned, but how could you not do this deal? Adding Iguodala to Ariza and Battier would be potent, and having Dalembert would allow Yao to play limited minutes, possibly extending his career. Quite frankly, I think Philadelphia might be looking for a little more than McGrady for Iguodala, and so they should.
Jordan Hill, Jarred Jeffries and Larry Hughes for Tracy McGrady
This is the latest rumour and it makes a little more sense for both teams. Houston gets New Yorks 2009 lottery pick, Jordan Hill and Hughes’ expiring contract, so they still save money. New York gets more cap space and can try McGrady out for a couple of months. If I was Houston, though, I’d ask for a draft pick as well.
Marcus Camby for Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake
Injuries have really hurt Portland’s chances this year, and this trade highlights just how much. Outlaw and Blake are valuable, but they’re free agents this summer, and might not want to re-sign onto Portland’s loaded roster. Camby gives them a real center so they can remain competitive the rest of the season. The Clippers get a good backup for the rest of the season and maybe re-sign outlaw, who could end up starting for the Clippers, when healthy. Really, it’s a short term deal for both, but Portland has the chance to benefit the most. If I were the Clippers, I’d try and get more for Camby and his expiring contract.
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Those are the main rumoured trades around the league, at least ones that I see even remotely happening. Here are a few that I think make sense, but I haven’t heard mentioned.
Mike Miller and Fabricio Oberto for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
This is one I haven’t heard, and considering Washington’s feelings about dealing with Cleveland, probably wouldn’t happen. It is probably the best deal Cleveland could do, however. Miller is the outside shooter and scoring threat the Cavs need at the wing position, and while Oberto’s best days are behind him, and hasn’t been playing much in Washington, he’s got playoff experience with the Spurs, which looks good on anyone’s resume. Besides, he’d only be needed to play a few minutes here and there.
Mike Miller was traded for when it looked like the Wizards might be a playoff team. They are not. Getting Hickson would be a plus. In the end, it’s a low risk deal that makes sense for both teams.
Kirk Hinrich and Jannero Pargo for Sacha Vujacic, Adam Morrison and Jordan Farmar
The Bulls want to clear more cap room to try and get a big free agent, and the Lakers weakest position is PG. Hinrich is made for the triangle offense and would become their best PG. He doesn’t need to handle the ball to be effective but is a better passer than any of the present Laker PGs, is a very good defender and has lots of playoff experience. The Bulls clear cap room, but also get a couple of nice, young bench players.
Amare Stoudemire for Tyrus Thomas and Brad Miller
I know the Bulls are hoping for Wade to sign, but that’s unlikely, and what they need more than anything is an inside scorer. They discussed trading for Amare last season, but nothing happened. He’s now healthy and would give the Bulls another scorer, which they have lacked. Tyrus Thomas has struggled in his time in Chicago, but he’s not made for that kind of ball. If anyone would benefit from playing with Nash, Thomas would. If the Suns do trade Amare, I think Thomas is the best prospect they could get for him. Miller’s expiring contract means it’s basically Amare for Thomas, which, considering the circumstances makes sense.
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Now, although Orlando has not really been mentioned in any trade talk, I think they need to make some sort of deal. The only reason they beat Cleveland last year is because they matched up well against them, but this year that isn’t so. Trading for Vince hasn’t worked out as well as they hoped, and could use a creative wing player who can do what Turkoglu did, which be the initiator. The player who would be absolutely perfect would have been Iguodala, but Orlando has absolutely no pieces that Philadelphia would want. That might mean bringing a third team into it, but I can’t see who.
Boston’s window is closing, if it isn’t already closed. Danny Ainge has to figure out if the team is still a contender, and may want to use Ray Allen’s expiring contract to get younger.
Minnesota is apparently interested in Tyrus Thomas, but I don’t know who they want to send back in return. The question is, why on earth would they want Thomas? Thinking about it, though, it makes perfect sense. They drafted two starting PGs in the last draft, so might as well deal for another PF when their two best players are PFs. They’re very big on redundancy in Minnesota, and if the GM continues to make moves that don’t quite make sense, he’s going to find himself redundant.
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