(If you haven’t read the first and second parts, please do, as this post will make a lot more sense if you do)

So in parts 1 and 2, we looked at the 16 year history of the Raptors organization that seemed to be so focused on not losing that it couldn’t manage to actually win, very much. The Raptors have spent nearly their entire existence on the mediocrity treadmill. For an NBA team and it’s fans, that’s basically hell.

So now we turn our attention to a few other franchises, and see what they’ve done.

CLEVELAND FLIRTS WITH A CHAMPIONSHIP

When Cleveland drafted LeBron James, it was probably the greatest turning point in their entire existence. Except for a brief period in the 90′s, the Cavaliers were synonymous with poor management and losing.

When LeBron was drafted, the Cavs roster was made up of a collection of mediocre veterans and a few promising youngsters (Carlos Boozer, Ricky Davis, Darius Miles). the promising, but flawed, youngsters were traded away or left, and in their place came veterans who could help the team immediately.

While they were able to acquire Anderson Varejao, the majority of the moves the Cavs made were either forgettable or one you’d rather forget (trading a first round pick for Jiri Welsch in February and then turning around and trading Welsch for a 2nd round pick- turning a 1st round pick into a second in a matter of months!). Still the team went from 17 wins the season before LeBron, to 35 and then 42 wins. It was obvious this team was on it’s way up.

When Danny Ferry was hired as the Cavs GM, in 2005, he made an immediate splash, signing volume scorer, the 27 year old Larry Hughes to a massive contract, and 32 year old Donyell Marshall (from the Raptors). At that point, of the 8 players that played the most minutes, only 2 were below the age of 26. They did go out and win 50 games and get to the second round of the playoffs, though.

The next season, with Danny Ferry basically standing pat with the roster, the team went out and won 50 games again, this time getting all the way to the Finals. Despite the success in the playoffs, the Cavs didn’t carry over the momentum to the regular season and Ferry decided to shake things up, trading away almost half the roster, and grabbing among others, 33 year old Ben Wallace and 32 year old Joe Smith. The team ended up winning just 45 games and losing again in the second round.

Probably the best move Danny Ferry made as GM, was when he turned Joe Smith into Mo Williams. It was one of the few times that Ferry attempted to make the team younger. And somehow, the Cavs gelled and ended up destroying the league in the regular season, winning 66 games. But then the playoffs came and they got bounced in the Conference Finals by Orlando.

So Ferry pulled the trigger on a trade that sent Ben Wallace to the Suns for Shaquille O’Neal. It was an act of desperation for the Cavs, who felt that winning a Championship was the only way to keep LeBron, who was in the last year of his contract. They then used a good portion of their MLE to sign 34 year old Anthony Parker, and then went out and traded for 33 year old Antawn Jamison. By season’s end, the Cavs had 3 starters who were 33, 34 and 37 and whose best years were well behind them.

Is it any wonder that when LeBron decided to abandon the team, they ended up winning only 19 games the next season?

While the Cavs ended up finding much more success than the Raptors did, using a similar plan, that was mostly due to the fact that LeBron was simply much better than Vince Carter ever was.  And the results ended up being the same. An unsustainable climb by acquiring aging veterans whose stock can only decline.

Like the Raptors, the Cavs had to start making riskier and riskier moves, acquiring older and older players, because when you keep acquiring declining assets, you lose more and more leverage. And just like the Raptors, right near the end they took a risk on an aging Hall of Fame center whose best years were behind him.

OKLAHOMA DECIDES TO GO YOUNG

The Thunder are probably one of the most discussed teams, in terms of building through the draft with youth, but quite frankly, that’s because they’ve done a textbook-like job.

When Sam Presti took over the then Seattle Supersonics, they had just come off a 31 win season, had two 20+ppg All-Stars on the roster, some half decent young talent and a number 2 pick in the draft. After drafting 19 year old Kevin Durant, Presti made a choice that was basically the complete opposite of what the Raptors and Cleveland had done. Keeping former All-Stars, Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen would certainly have made the team competitive, possibly even a playoff team with a move or two, Presti wisely decided that at ages 27 and 31, Lewis and Allen were declining assets who would probably be too old to help the team when Durant was entering his prime.

Presti first traded Allen for 5th pick, Jeff Green, as well as Wally Szczerbiak and his expiring contract, and Delonte West, both of whom were ironically traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers just one season later. Then Presti decided not to match Orlando’s massive contract offer for Lewis, leaving the team without their two best players in a matter of days.

Instead of surrounding Durant with veterans, which would have speeded up the team’s development, but limited it’s growth, Presti preached patience, and decided to surround their new franchise player with players his own age, allowing them to grow and develop together. While it meant the team was actually worse the next season, winning just 20 games, they were also able to pick up future All-Star, Russell Westbrook in the next draft. They improved only slightly the next season, again, giving them a top 3 pick, grabbing James Harden.

In just three seasons, the Sonics/Thunder were able to acquire three top 5 picks and the very next season they jumped from 23 wins to 50 wins. They never added one major veteran over the age of 25 and by the time they win 50 games, they only had two rotation players over the age of 25- 26 year old Nenad Krstic, who signed the previous season, and 29 year old Nick Collison, who was the only holdover from the pre-Presti era.

And with a starting of with an average age of just 23 years old, the Oklahoma City Thunder won 55 games last season on their way to a Conference Finals appearance. And it’s certainly not inconceivable that, as long as they are able to keep their core together, the Thunder will be contenders for the next 10 years.

If the Thunder had kept Allen and Lewis, the team would already be trying to figure out how to replace them.

CLIPPERS (MIS)MANAGEMENT

One of the most common arguments again “tanking” is that you don’t want to end up like the Los Angeles Clippers. Of course, that argument may not work anymore, after trading for Chris Paul, but it never really worked anyway.

The problem with the Clippers was not that they were always trying to lose and get high draft picks, it’s that they were simply badly mismanaged and drafted poorly when they got to the draft.

If the Cleveland Cavaliers were synonymous with poor management and losing, the Clippers made them look good.

In their 47 year history, the Clippers have made the playoffs just 7 times. That’s just 2 more than the Raptors, in nearly 3 times the amount of time. To the Clippers, mediocrity would have been a step up. In the last 30 years, the Clippers have drafted in the top ten 23 times. They’ve had a top 5 pick 13 times. Yet, somehow in all that time, they only managed to draft 3 All Stars. Actually, that’s not entirely true. They drafted five All-Stars, but traded away two of them before they became All-Stars. You could probably manage a better drafting record than them by throwing darts at a board. I could probably write and entire post devoted to their poor drafting.

So needless to say, the Clippers have not been successful, but that turned around in the last few years, when they drafted Eric Gordon and then got the 1st pick in the draft the next year and took Blake Griffin. Unlike previous eras, when young players were traded away for veterans either past their prime or who never had one, the Clippers actually started stockpiling their young talent.

While Griffin and Gordon are definitely stars, there’s a question of whether either are the type of elite talent that can lead a team to a Championship. Thankfully, that doesn’t matter since they were able to use their stockpile of youth and Chris Kaman’s expiring contract, to trade for Chris Paul.

Now, what is the difference between what Cleveland and Toronto did and what the Clippers did? There are a couple.

First is that Paul is only 26 years old. He’s not a 31 year old athletic wing player or 33 year old big man.

Secondly, and most importantly, Paul IS their franchise player now. Griffin is a great talent, he’s not the type to make those around him better. He’s not a good passer or stellar defender and most of his scoring is done by being more athletic than his opponent. He is much more suited to a complimentary role, and with Paul running the point, he can now do that.

Without Chris Paul, the Clippers probably had a ceiling similar to the Atlanta Hawks- the second round. The number of teams without a top 10 player on it that have been a true contender, in the last 20-30 years you can count on one hand. And now the Clippers have that.

SO WHAT TO DO?

So this brings us back to the Raptors and this season.

Now there is a portion of Raptor fans who hate to see the Raptors lose intentionally and that nothing good ever comes from tanking. Well, first of all, I don’t think anyone is suggesting the team actually “tank”. That would involve trading away the team’s best players and not giving the team a shot to even be competitive in games. Cleveland and Denver did that and all it got them were LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony. Er…nevermind.

The Raptors currently have the talent to vie for the top spot in the NBA….draft. So the best thing that Colangelo can do, and seems to be doing, is to just let them play. Don’t try to win a few more games just to make the team look slightly better. In the end that gets you nothing but what Raptor fans have had to put up with for the past 16 years. Mediocrity, at best.

The few more wins that a Tyson Chandler or even a Shane Battier might get you may be the difference between a top 3 pick and yet another good, but not great, draft pick. As 82Games.com showed, there’s a big dropoff after the fifth pick.

When you’re walking the line between mediocrity and being a contender, the difference might be just a few ping pong balls.

Now as I mentioned in the first post, PhDSteve, over at Raptors Republic argued in his latest podcast that it doesn’t really matter where the Raptors pick because there’s no real consensus #1 and the Raptors can get a good PG later in the draft.

That would make sense if the Raptors biggest need is a PG. It isn’t. The Raptors biggest need, far outweighing any position or skill, is a franchise player. Who cares if the Raptors get the best PG in the draft if they still don’t have a franchise player. In the NBA, teams generally only go as far as their best player can take them. Atlanta’s problem is not that they don’t have a good team. It’s that Joe Johnson is a perennial All-Star, but not a truly elite player.

In fact, Toronto’s history shows the limitations teams have without truly elite players. While Vince had the potential to be one of the greats, he never fulfilled that potential and the farthest the team could get with him was the second round. Bosh was a perennial All-Star, but simply not the type of talent that can lift a team above mediocrity.

While there might not be any sure-fire Hall of Famers, like Tim Duncans or LeBron James’, there are still a few potential franchise players in this draft. Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond , Perry Jones and Harrison Barnes have been the most talked about (although I personally am not sure Barnes has any elite skill that would allow him to be a franchise player), but Quincy Miller and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist also have some potential. That’s six players, but most likely half are not going to fulfill that potential, so getting first crack is all the more important.

IN CONCLUSION

While pushing towin as many games as you can might seem like a good idea, if your goal is to compete for an NBA Championship, it’s simply not always a sound strategy. While getting one of the worst records in the league certainly is no guarantee of a top 3 pick, it gives you the best chance. It’s been said that the best thing for these young players on the Raptors is to start trying to compete now, but without a franchise player, exactly what would they be competing for? More of what we’ve seen over the last 16 years. And that’s simply not good enough.

And after the inevitable fall that came, the Raptors were able to finish with a top 3 pick and draft Chris Bosh.

THE ROB BABCOCK ERA

Glen Grunwald didn’t even last for a season after selecting Bosh and was eventually replaced by Rob Babcock who, while a poor judge of talent and terrible GM, at least seemed to understand the downside to collecting even more veteran talent (well, he did sign 28 year old Rafer Alston, who was relatively young compared to Grunwald’s signings). Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean that Babcock seemed to fully understand the position he was in.

He took over a 33 win team with a franchise player in his prime (27 is generally thought of to be the prime of an NBA player), with a history of injuries and a game that relied a lot on athleticism. And the roster consisted of only 3 players BELOW the age of 26: Bosh, Matt Bonner and Babcock’s first ever draft pick as a GM, Rafael Araujo, who, at 24, was actually 4 years older than Bosh. How can you NOT realize that it’s time to rebuild?

Even Carter figured it out and demanded a trade by the end of the summer when it became clear that this team was going nowhere, as presently constructed. And Babcock eventually had to trade him for 7 cents on the dollar.

So with a young Bosh and a bunch of mediocre veterans around him, the team sailed to yet another 33 win season, adding the mediocre Charlie Villaneuva and and not quite mediocre Joey Graham as the prize for another year of mediocrity.

And the Raptors were even worse the next season, winning just 27 games, which was low enough to net them the first pick in the draft. The bad news is that the draft was not considered to be a very good one. It’s like your number coming up in a raffle only to discover that you don’t get the big screen TV or front row Raptor tickets, but the potpourri gift basket. You’d throw your number back in, if you could, but you can’t.

COLANGELO TRIES MORE OF THE SAME

When Bryan Colangelo was hired away from Phoenix, he was given a number 1 pick in an off year and cap room in an offseason where the top free agent might have been 37 year old Sam Cassell. So Colangelo ignored past Raptor history and loaded up the team with veterans to surround Bosh, Bargnani and the newly acquired TJ Ford, all who were between the ages of 21 and 23, with 31 year old Anthony Parker, 29 year old Jorge Garbajosa, and 30 year old Rasho Nesterovic.

And the Raptors ended up tying the franchise mediocrity record of 47 wins and making it to the first round of the playoffs. And this was considered a success.

Since Glen Grunwald had already traded away the first rounder away years before, Colangelo made a splash in free agency by signing the very mediocre Jason Kapono, who was coming off a career year in Miami (apparently Colangelo never learned the lesson about signing free agents coming off career years during a contract year).

And then they went out and won an incredibly mediocre 41 wins (.500) and got bounced again in the first round.

So, taking a page from his predecessor, Glen Grunwald, Colangelo trades away a first round pick and 24 year old T.J. Ford for 30 year old (although that sounds better than it actually was- he had 40 year old knees) Jermaine O’Neal.¹

O’Neal didn’t even last the season before he was traded away for the equally ancient 30 year old Shawn Marion, who had been on the decline for the previous two seasons.

The team finished well out of the playoff hunt, but not far enough down to get a decent shot at a top 3 pick, so ended up drafting 9th, picking DeMar DeRozan.

While Jermaine O’Neal or Shawn Marion didn’t get them to the playoffs, it did allow them to have the cap room to be a major player in the free agent market. And while Colangelo did go after the 24 year old Trevor Ariza, the free agent he ended up with was the 30 year old Hedo Turkoglu, who was beginning to look like his best days were behind him.

And they were.

And so the Raptors finished just out of the playoffs, again.

Bosh left, Turkoglu was traded and after a botched trade attempt that almost brought Tyson Chandler to Toronto, Colangelo was forced to do something that had never actually been tried in Raptors history: An actual rebuild.

AND FINALLY, A REBUILD

While Colangelo may or may not have wanted or planned to do it, the Raptors entered the 2010-11 season with no playoff expectations whatsoever. Colangelo even picked up a couple of young players, in Jerryd Bayless and James Johnson, who were languishing on veterans teams. The team lost big and ended up with a top 5 pick. If history repeated itself, the Raptors probably would have selected someone like Kemba Walker or Brandon Knight, who could have helped them immediately, and then used their cap room to grab a decent veteran or two in order to try and compete immediately.

But that’s not what happened.

While the 2011 draft was not highly regarded, like the 2006 draft it had been compared to, the Raptors ended up picking Jonas Valanciunas, who some feel might end up being the best player from the draft. They chose him despite the fact that he wouldn’t be able to come over to the NBA until next season, which probably dropped his stock allowing the Raptors to scoop him up a couple of places lower than he might have gone.

So the Raptors entered this offseason with a roster whose average age is under 26.

This is not Glen Grunwald‘s Raptors.

When the lockout finally ended and teams were allowed to start talking, if not making, deals, there was a lot of discussion in Raptorland about what the team should do.

“What’s the harm in signing a guy like Tyson Chandler?”

“Why not go after a guy like Shane Battier?”

“Let’s try and make the playoffs now.”

“I don’t want another year of losing!”

Now, to me, the fans who were saying these types of things have simply not been paying attention to the Raptors franchise very closely over the last 16 years. And this is where the famous quote from the title comes in.

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

Coming up next, the conclusion to the thrilling trilogy…

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^{1. Truth be told, I was not completely against the T.J. Ford for Jermaine O’Neal trade. While it was not the deal I probably would have made, I thought it was a bold move that may or may not backfire, but at that point felt something big needed to be done. I also never saw the trade as as much of a failure as others. While O’Neal obviously didn’t have the impact that many hoped, it’s hard to blame it on O’Neal when the supporting cast was so abysmal.}

If you’re a Raptor fan, you no doubt heard the rumours that were flying around at the beginning of the “offseason”. Most of them I mentioned in a previous post. And if you’re a Raptor fan, no doubt you debated with another Raptor fan about whether or not signing one of the better free agents would be a good idea. To some Raptor fans, signing a guy like Tyson Chandler, DeAndre Jordan or even Shane Battier would have been a no-brainer. Why not improve the team if you can, right? Well, other fans feel that the team is not going to compete anyway, so with the upcoming draft looking like one of the better ones in more than a decade, the last thing the team should be doing is adding more wins, which would take chances away from finishing in the top 3 in the NBA Draft Lottery.

If you want to know my opinion, you just have to look at the history of the Raptors.

NOT GOOD ENOUGH, BUT NOT BAD ENOUGH

In their 16 years of existence, the Raptors have finished between .320 and .580 twelve times. That’s twelve times out of sixteen where the team has finished with between 26 wins and 47 wins¹. During those seasons the Raptors made the playoffs four times, only making it to the second round once. The times they didn’t make the playoffs, only once did they secure a top five draft pick, when they won the lottery and selected Andrea Bargnani.

Meanwhile, the 4 times they finished below 26 wins, they came up with Marcus Camby, Vince Carter, Chris Bosh and Jonas Valanciunas. While Valanciunas hasn’t had a chance to play in the NBA, yet, Carter and Bosh all went on to become perennial All-Stars and All-NBA players, and Camby went on to become the 2007 Defensive Player of the Year.

The Raptors have won a franchise best 47 wins twice in their history. The first time with Carter and the second time with Bosh. Carter lead the Raptors to three playoff berths while Bosh lead Toronto to two.

To me, it’s obvious that the most success the Raptors have had was when they started off at the bottom. The 16 wins in 1998 led to Vince Carter and eventually three consecutive playoff appearances, including their only second round appearance. The 24 wins in 2003 led to Chris Bosh and two consecutive playoff appearances.

Last year, with Bosh gone to Miami,the Raptors started the season without an All-Star on the roster for the first time in more than a decade. Despite this, many fans were talking about playoffs again, despite predictions to the contrary by most media pundits and those connected to the NBA. Then the team went out and lost 60 games and got the fifth pick in the draft, and some think possibly the best player, in Jonas Valanciunas. Maybe it’s just me, but I think that’s better than another first round exit or, even worse, a low lottery pick.

Now, Jonas will not be playing for the Raptors until next season, and even if the Raptors had signed a Chandler or Gasol or even a Battier, their chances of making the playoffs this year were slim. Whether Raptor fans like to believe it or not, the team this year may not be any better, and might possibly be worse, than last year’s squad (I’ll go into that on another post).

That may sound depressing for Raptor fans, but on the bright side, the upcoming draft is supposed to be one of the best in a while. PhDSteve, over at Raptors Republic, recently did a podcast that talked specifically about the draft and what the Raptors strategy regarding it, and I have to say I respectfully disagree.

Before I get to why I disagree, let’s first look at what the Raptors have done in the past when they HAVE been able to draft a potential franchise player.

THE VETERAN PARADE

When the Toronto Raptors drafted Vince Carter, they knew they had something special. They also knew that their earlier draft pick, Tracy McGrady, had the potential to be something special, too. It was then that Raptors GM Glen Grunwald made a decision that would end up ushering in an era where the name Raptors was synonymous with excitement. The decision also meant that success was limited and short lived, with the Raptors only making the playoffs for three years before being sent back to the lottery for another four years before Chris Bosh lead them back to a brief playoff rebirth.

A couple of weeks before the 1998 Draft, the Raptors traded away Roy Rogers and two first round picks for the 36 year old Kevin Willis. Grunwald obviously had decided to bring in more veterans, knowing that’s the path to more immediate improvement.

And then, just a day after the Raptors drafted Vince Carter (well, actually Antawn Jamison who was turned into Vince Carter) they traded the 24 year old Marcus Camby, who was coming off a disappointing season, but still had a lot of promise, to the Knicks for a player who was more than 10 years older, Charles Oakley.

It’s not as if these two players did not have an immediate impact. While Vince exploded onto the scene in his rookie year, it was the veteran leadership of Oakley and Willis, as well as veteran holdovers, Doug Christie and Dee Brown, that helped propel the team to what would amount to a 21 game improvement (the 23 games they won in a 50 game season is equal to 37 games in an 82 game season). Huge, by any measure.

Unfortunately, the team missed out on the playoffs, but with the help of an earlier trade that had sent a young Chauncey Billups² to Denver, the Raptors were able to secure the 5th pick in the draft, in addition to their 12th pick³. Feeling the Raptors needed more veteran firepower to reach the playoffs, Grunwald turned the pick into 31 year old Antonio Davis, and then went out and signed a pair of 35 year old free agents, in Dell Curry and Muggsy Bogues.

During the 2000 season, the average age of the ten players that played at least 600 minutes was 30 years old. For a team whose two leading scorers were 23 and 20, this was NOT a young team. And behind that veteran play, the team went out and won 45 games and qualified for the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, although got swept in 3 games by the New York Knicks.

Not long after the Raptors were sent home packing, the Raptors were dealt a blow when up and coming star, Tracy McGrady, fled a team he felt didn’t respect him and that he couldn’t be the main man on with his cousin taking so much of the spotlight. In his place, they drafted Morris Peterson and signed 35 year old Mark Jackson (as well as a 38 year old Tyrone Corbin). Jackson only lasted to the trade deadline when he and Muggsy Bogues were traded for a slightly younger 33 year old Chris Childs.

Are you starting to see the pattern here? Chris Childs was followed by a 39 year old Hakeem Olajuwon, followed by a 30 year old Lamond Murray, and a 30 year old Donyell Marshall and 31 year old Jalen Rose.

The parade of veterans was not enough to prevent the decline of the team, going from a mediocre 47 wins and a memorable second round appearance back to the depths of the lottery again in just 5 years.

The prize for that was Chris Bosh.

And then history repeated itself…

Read part 2…

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^{1. Due to the lockout and subsequent shortened season in 1998-99, their 23 wins was equivalent to 38 wins. And anywhere from 26 to 47 wins is the meaty part of the mediocrity treadmill, where the Raptors have pretty much lived their entire existence and the reason for this post.}  

^{2. While it would have been nice if Toronto had seen the potential in Chauncey Billups, he took him 4 more years before he came into his own. Still, the Raptors had Chauncey Billups, Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady and Marcus Camby at one point. They never actually played together, and were only on the same team during the offseason of 1998, when the NBA was on strike, but still, it makes you think about what might have been.}

^{3. The Raptors famously drafted Jonathan Bender and then dodged a bullet by trading him for Antonio Davis, but they drafted him for the Pacers. What is rarely discussed is who the Raptors could have also drafted. Yes, Davis made a big impact and helped the team make the playoffs, but the success was short lived. Davis was 31 when he was traded to the Raptors, so the window with him wasn’t incredibly big. If the Raptors had used their pick to select Andre Miller or Shawn Marion, and then used their 12th pick to select Ron Artest or even Corey Maggette, the Raptors would have been better in the long term. But Grunwald wanted the immediate success an established veteran would bring.}

I’ll grade this trade in another post, but the first thing I will say is that it suddenly makes the Clippers not only a relevant team, but may be vying with Oklahoma for the best up and coming team. They have arguably the best PG in the game combining with one of the best young PFs in the game as well as a young, athletic, defensive center, which will make for more ally-oops than SportsCentre can handle.

With the signing of Caron Butler, and the pickup of Chauncey Billups, they have smart veterans they rarely have.

Although they need a shooting guard to replace Eric Gordon (who will definitely be missed), they are probably in a better position than the team has ever been, including when Larry Brown was coaching.

Unfortunately, all this happened on the day I thought up this trade for the Raptors…

To Toronto:
Al-Farouq Aminu
Zaza Pachulia
Kirk Hinrich
Minnesota’s 2012 Pick

Wow, for those who felt the lack of any real NBA news over the last 5 and a half months, I wouldn’t be surprised if a few hardcore basketball junkies overdosed on what came out the last few days. Among the news are two rescinded trades of Chris Paul, New York adding the best center they’ve had since Patrick Ewing, several former All-Stars getting “amnestied”, possible tampering by the New Jersey Nets, Boston almost getting Davis West, and lots and lots of signings.

So where do we start?

BUYER BEWARE

The first Chris Paul deal to the Lakers appeared to be pretty much done until the rest of the league realized that the Lakers would, again, be foregoing the usual need to rebuild and simply using their stature to secure a replacement for franchise player Kobe Bryant. Since New Orleans is owned by the league, technically all the owners own the Hornets, so any trade or deal needs to be run by all of them, first. If this sounds like a recipe for disaster, you’re probably right.

And so after the first deal got nixed, the three teams (New Orleans, Lakers and Houston) got together and put together a different, rather similar, deal. And the NBA nixed that one, basically telling the Lakers that no matter what deal they put together, they aren’t getting Chris Paul.

As a fan of several teams that aren’t owned by Jerry Buss, I can’t say I’m too disappointed. The thought of watching the Lakers grab another top 10 talent, and one that would eventually replace Kobe, was not enticing at all.

So with the Lakers out of the picture, the Clippers started making their offers for Paul. This time, though, instead of the Hornets GM, Dell Demps, handling the negotiations, it was NBA brass, Stu Jackson and Joel Litvin, running things for the Hornets.

Excuse me?

Yes, while he hasn’t been fired, for some reason the NBA has basically castrated Demps and taken any power away from him in favour of the guy who was mostly responsible for mismanaging the Vancouver Grizzlies so badly that he destroyed any chance for the team’s long term viability in the city. Hornet fans need to brace themselves. Seriously.

Still, from the sounds of it, it’s hard to be critical of their strategy. If they can get anything close to Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Al-Farouq Aminu and Eric Bledsoe, as well as the T-Wolves 2012 pick, for Paul, then they’ll have done very well. While, I wasn’t a big fan of HOW the NBA killed the Laker deals, I felt they were horrible deals for the Hornets. If you’re going to lose your franchise player, getting one low draft pick and no potential star is probably not the best deal. They need to take a page out of Utah and Denver’s book and get as many young assets and draft picks as they can. Trading your franchise player, while trying to stay competitive is a recipe for disaster. Well, mediocrity, but that’s the same thing in the NBA.

On the other hand, could New Orleans be expecting too much for Paul? Considering no other team can really come close to what the Clippers have already offered, you have to wonder if the NBA is simply trying to LOOK like they are trying to trade Paul. After the Laker’s debacle, Paul, his agent and the NBAPA made some noise about suing the league. And you also have to think that the Hornets franchise is worth A LOT more with a franchise player like Chris Paul than without him. Unless they get some amazing talent back (like what they’re asking for from the Clippers), it makes some financial sense to hold onto Paul for as long as they can.

That means, though, if I’m another team, I’d approach any negotiations with an air of suspicion.

**Update**

And now it seems the Lakers, gluttons for punishment apparently, are now back in the hunt for Paul.

BANKING CENTRE

Although nothing has happened with Chris Paul, there were a whole slew of deals that happened in the league. In fact, all the free agent centers, who were probably the biggest free agent prizes, have now settled on homes for the new season.

The first domino was Tyson Chandler quickly signing with New York, after flirting with New Jersey, Houston and Golden State. An interesting and somewhat surprising turn of events considering that it pretty much takes them out of the free agent market next summer, when Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Dwight Howard were most likely going to become free agents.

From a basketball standpoint, this was probably the best move they could make. After being almost left out in the cold in the last free agent bonanza, coming home with probably their fourth choice, risking it all again probably wasn’t the best move. And the fact is, while Paul and Williams would certainly help the team, what the Knicks need most is defense, and that doesn’t start with the point guard position. It starts with the big men. With Amare, defense is an afterthought, so signing one of the best defensive centers in the league, to play alongside him, is a stroke of genius.

So does that mean the Knicks are finally going to be a true contender again?

Not so fast.

They had to amnesty Chauncey Billups in order to sign Chandler, and while his best days are definitely behind him, he’s still one of the better PGs in the league and his leadership and veteran savvy will be difficult to replace. The signing of a WAY over the hill Mike Bibby and the rumours of signing Baron Davis when he’s waived by the Cavs does very little to change things.

And an offense that runs through Carmelo Anthony, who’s never been known for his passing or his ability to make those around him better, is probably not going to be as potent as it was last season. But with better defense, maybe it won’t have to be.

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After Chandler was signed by the Knicks, the next free agent center to get his big payday was DeAndre Jordan, who you need to look at as more of an investment, because his prior stats certainly aren’t going to sell you on the fact he might be worth the $10 million a year the Golden State Warriors offered him and the Clippers matched. For a guy whose stats were incredibly similar to Amir Johnson‘s, Clippers fans better hope that what we’ve seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg.

Just to emphasis the similarity of the seasons Jordan and Johnson had, let’s look at their stats:

DeAndre Jordan
MPG- 25.6
FG%- .686
FT%- .452
RPG- 7.2
APG- 0.5
SPG- 0.5
BPG- 1.8
FPG- 3.2
PPG- 7.1

Amir Johnson
MPG- 25.7
FG%- .568
FT%- .788
RPG- 6.4
APG- 1.1
SPG- 0.7
BPG- 1.2
FPG- 3.7
PPG- 9.6

Jordan is 23 and Amir is 24. Jordan is listed at 6’11 and Amir is listed at 6’9 (although is probably closer to 6’10). Jordan will be making $40 million over the next four years. Amir will be making $25 million over the next four years.

So where are all those people who complained that Amir was vastly overpaid?

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One interesting thing about DeAndre Jordan is that he was actually a second round pick, proving that you can find talent anywhere (although it’s incredibly rare). Coincidentally, the next center to back up to the bank was another second round pick, Marc Gasol. While neither Memphis or the Clippers are known for their shrewd personnel decisions, both of them made the decision to allow their player to get an offer from another team, setting their market value, and then matched it. Maybe Memphis learned their lesson after they overpaid Rudy Gay the previous offseason, without him even testing the market.

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Lastly, for all the talk that Denver simply didn’t respect him, money did the talking and he signed a 5 year, $67 million contract with the Nuggets. And while Denver obviously had to do something to stem the exodus of talent (mostly to China, strangely enough), I don’t know if a team that should be focusing on rebuilding should be spending that much on a 29 year old big man whose defense and rebounding have never been great (although they are decent), and who’s never averaged even 15 ppg during his career.

With all the money being thrown around at above average centers, do you think Jon Koncak is wishing he was born 20 years earlier?

AROUND THE HORN

So as I said, Chauncey Billups got waived by the Knicks, but ended up being claimed by the Clippers for only $2 million. Not a bad bargain and a great deal for the Clippers, who desperately need his leadership. Even if the Clippers don’t end up trading for Chris Paul, you have to think their PG situation is MUCH better than it was a couple of years ago when an out of shape and grossly overpaid Baron Davis was running the show.

In fact, with the signing of Caron Butler (who was overpaid, but we’re not talking Baron Davis money, so it’s all relative), gives the Clippers one of the best up and coming teams since the Oklahoma Thunder. The small forward position was their weakest position and, if healthy, Butler is exactly what they need.

And speaking of small forwards, I have to say I was greatly disappointed to see Shane Battier sign with Miami. It’s not that I didn’t want him to sign with a contender, it’s that I would have MUCH rather have seen him sign with the Spurs, a team he probably would have ended up starting for, and who would have gone together like Shawn Kemp and alimony cheques.

As for the Spurs, at one point it looked like Richard Jefferson was going to be a victim of the amnesty rule, but when both Butler and Battier signed elsewhere, it probably saved Jefferson from having to pack his bags. I don’t know if there’s another small forward on the market, now, that’s better than Jefferson.

I’m going to do another Offseason Report Card, this year, so that’ll be it for my commentary for now.