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The Trading Post
Posted on | February 16, 2010 | 1 Comment
When I worked at EA Sports a number of years ago, I was involved heavily in `Franchise Mode’. It was a natural fit for me and I loved it. Though gameplay was fun, it was managing the roster that I found the most fun. Making trades, drafting etc. What the game never achieved, however, was the hype surrounding this time of year in the NBA. I know I should probably take Doug Smith’s tact and hate this time of year because it’s not about the game, and involves innuendo and rumours, the bane of his existence, but I can’t help it. It’s fun.
Yes, it can be fun for the fan, but for the players it must be torture. Imagine you’re busy going about your job when you keep hearing your name popping up in rumoured transfers to other branches in different cities. It must be difficult.
So with all due respect to the players, this post is dedicated to discussing every rumoured deal, and maybe proposing a new one or two. There are simply too many deals to discuss every single one, so I’ll focus on a few that seem to have legs. First off, though, I’m going to look at Toronto’s situation.
TORONTO
For the first time in a while, the Raptors are virtually a non-entity on the trade rumour mill. It’s a good sign. Making a deal might end up backfiring for the Raptors, unless it seriously upgrades their talent level. Still, there are a couple of moves they could make that might improve them.
Andre Igoudala for Demar DeRozan, Amir Johnson and Marcus Banks
In an earlier post, I proposed including Calderon in a trade for Iguodala, in this one, he’s not included, but Philly gets more salary relief. Banks’ contract isn’t great, but it’s 3 years less than Iguodala’s. Including Amir gives them another young prospect, as well as an expiring contract. Obviously Iguodala would be a great fit for the Raptors, and might be enough to entice Bosh to re-sign.
Andris Biedrins for Amir Johnson and Marcus Banks
While Amir Johnson is having a great season for the Raptors, and fills a need, the fact that he’s a free agent this summer makes it a real possibility he won’t be back. Why not use his expiring contract to try and get something in return. Biedrins is underutilized in Golden State and overpaid, but his rebounding, shot blocking and mobility would be a great replacement for Johnson, and the fact that he’s got a long term contract means that he’ll be around for a while. The biggest plus, though, would be that he would be a better insurance policy for Bosh than Johnson.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Antawn Jamison for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Antawn Jamison is the perfect PF on the market to play with LeBron. He can score outside and inside, and would more than likely get them to the Finals. On the downside, he’s 33, so you’ve got to question how much longer he can play at such a high level. With LeBron not even being 25, the best way to keep him around is to surround him with guys who will be around for a while. Of course, Washington apparently doesn’t want to deal with Cleveland because of the history between them.
Amare Soudemire for J.J. Hickson, Z. Ilguaskas and Jamario Moon (or someone like him)
This would be the trade that would bring the best player, and since he’s indicated he won’t opt out, he’ll probably be with the team for at least another season and would be a huge enticement for LeBron to re-sign. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’s a good fit, and I think he might not like to be LeBron’s second fiddle. On the court, the Cavs currently have LeBron and Shaq to play inside, and I don’t see there being much room down there. Add Stoudamire, and if these guys don’t bump into each other, I’d be surprised. There are also conflicting reports that he my not want to be traded to Cleveland.
Phoenix would be getting Hickson, who is a talented, young big man, as well as Iguaskas’ expiring contract. If I was Phoenix, I’d keep looking.
Troy Murphy for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Troy Murphy might be the best PF for the Cavs to trade for. He’s younger than Jamison and a better outside shooter than Stoudemire. Plus he’s a better rebounder than either of them. I also think he might be cheaper to trade for. He’s the least sexy option, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this is who they end up getting.
A salary dump for Indiana, plus they get a good young prospect in Hickson. This might be the best deal out there and the best chance to rid themselves of Murphy’s contract. On the plus side, it opens up playing time for rookie Tyler Hansbridge.
Corey Maggette and Raja Bell for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
Now, I haven’t actually heard Bell’s name in any proposed deal, but it works and makes sense. Maggette is having possibly his best year as a pro, and he’s probably more what Cleveland needs. He’s that second scorer that Mo Williams and Shaq simply aren’t. With both him and LeBron on the floor together, opposing teams couldn’t have a weak defender defending Maggette, as they can with Parker. If I was Cleveland, this might be my first choice of the rumoured deals.
Another salary dump, and considering that no one wanted to touch Maggette a year ago, getting Hickson might be a huge bonus. Golden State has too many wing players, too many scorers and not enough healthy PFs. This is a no brainer, in my opinion.
Now, I have only heard Stoudemire’s name, and no one from Miami, so this is purely conjecture. It would completely kill any cap room they would have this summer, but the question is, would they be able to get anyone better than these two? A lineup of Amare, Beasley, Richardson (either Jason or Quentin) and Wade would be pretty offensively potent. The rim would certainly get a workout. I don’t know how good they’d be defensively, though. Possibly even worse than the Raptors.
The latest rumour is that Miami is looking for a third team to trade with, which makes sense, because I don’t see the above trade going down. Despite their desire for Stoudemire, the only thing they really have of any value they are apparently willing to trade is O’Neal and his expiring contract. I’d be surprised if Amare lands in Miami because apart from the above deal, where they get rid of all but Nash’s big contract, there’s nothing Miami has that the Suns would want.
Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert for Tracy McGrady
I don’t know who’s reluctant to make this deal, but it had better be Philadelphia. I know Houston would be taking back salary, and Dalembert would have to move to the bench when Yao returned, but how could you not do this deal? Adding Iguodala to Ariza and Battier would be potent, and having Dalembert would allow Yao to play limited minutes, possibly extending his career. Quite frankly, I think Philadelphia might be looking for a little more than McGrady for Iguodala, and so they should.
Jordan Hill, Jarred Jeffries and Larry Hughes for Tracy McGrady
This is the latest rumour and it makes a little more sense for both teams. Houston gets New Yorks 2009 lottery pick, Jordan Hill and Hughes’ expiring contract, so they still save money. New York gets more cap space and can try McGrady out for a couple of months. If I was Houston, though, I’d ask for a draft pick as well.
Marcus Camby for Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake
Injuries have really hurt Portland’s chances this year, and this trade highlights just how much. Outlaw and Blake are valuable, but they’re free agents this summer, and might not want to re-sign onto Portland’s loaded roster. Camby gives them a real center so they can remain competitive the rest of the season. The Clippers get a good backup for the rest of the season and maybe re-sign outlaw, who could end up starting for the Clippers, when healthy. Really, it’s a short term deal for both, but Portland has the chance to benefit the most. If I were the Clippers, I’d try and get more for Camby and his expiring contract.
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Those are the main rumoured trades around the league, at least ones that I see even remotely happening. Here are a few that I think make sense, but I haven’t heard mentioned.
Mike Miller and Fabricio Oberto for J.J. Hickson and Z. Ilguaskas
This is one I haven’t heard, and considering Washington’s feelings about dealing with Cleveland, probably wouldn’t happen. It is probably the best deal Cleveland could do, however. Miller is the outside shooter and scoring threat the Cavs need at the wing position, and while Oberto’s best days are behind him, and hasn’t been playing much in Washington, he’s got playoff experience with the Spurs, which looks good on anyone’s resume. Besides, he’d only be needed to play a few minutes here and there.
Mike Miller was traded for when it looked like the Wizards might be a playoff team. They are not. Getting Hickson would be a plus. In the end, it’s a low risk deal that makes sense for both teams.
Kirk Hinrich and Jannero Pargo for Sacha Vujacic, Adam Morrison and Jordan Farmar
The Bulls want to clear more cap room to try and get a big free agent, and the Lakers weakest position is PG. Hinrich is made for the triangle offense and would become their best PG. He doesn’t need to handle the ball to be effective but is a better passer than any of the present Laker PGs, is a very good defender and has lots of playoff experience. The Bulls clear cap room, but also get a couple of nice, young bench players.
Amare Stoudemire for Tyrus Thomas and Brad Miller
I know the Bulls are hoping for Wade to sign, but that’s unlikely, and what they need more than anything is an inside scorer. They discussed trading for Amare last season, but nothing happened. He’s now healthy and would give the Bulls another scorer, which they have lacked. Tyrus Thomas has struggled in his time in Chicago, but he’s not made for that kind of ball. If anyone would benefit from playing with Nash, Thomas would. If the Suns do trade Amare, I think Thomas is the best prospect they could get for him. Miller’s expiring contract means it’s basically Amare for Thomas, which, considering the circumstances makes sense.
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Now, although Orlando has not really been mentioned in any trade talk, I think they need to make some sort of deal. The only reason they beat Cleveland last year is because they matched up well against them, but this year that isn’t so. Trading for Vince hasn’t worked out as well as they hoped, and could use a creative wing player who can do what Turkoglu did, which be the initiator. The player who would be absolutely perfect would have been Iguodala, but Orlando has absolutely no pieces that Philadelphia would want. That might mean bringing a third team into it, but I can’t see who.
Boston’s window is closing, if it isn’t already closed. Danny Ainge has to figure out if the team is still a contender, and may want to use Ray Allen’s expiring contract to get younger.
Minnesota is apparently interested in Tyrus Thomas, but I don’t know who they want to send back in return. The question is, why on earth would they want Thomas? Thinking about it, though, it makes perfect sense. They drafted two starting PGs in the last draft, so might as well deal for another PF when their two best players are PFs. They’re very big on redundancy in Minnesota, and if the GM continues to make moves that don’t quite make sense, he’s going to find himself redundant.
Prediction time!
Posted on | October 12, 2009 | 7 Comments
I thought I would make ten predictions for the season. They will be predictions for both the Raptors and the rest of the league. I’ll post one each day until the end of the exhibition season, and then I’ll give my thoughts on what we saw from the Raptors in the exhibition games.
The reason I’m am not posting my thoughts after each game is because I think fans tend to read too much into each exhibition game. They mean very little, especially to veteran starters. I don’t care in the least that Calderon isn’t playing well yet, or that Bosh is not in regular season form, or that their three point shooting is underwhelming. It’s the preseason. I’ll start worrying when the regular season starts and things haven’t changed.
Keep in mind, if these predictions are way off, I may just delete this post so no record will remain.
PREDICTION #1:
CHRIS BOSH WILL HAVE A CAREER YEAR, LEAD THE RAPTORS BACK TO THE PLAYOFFS AND RE-SIGN
Yes, I’ve started out with a bold prediction. First of all, Bosh has never entered a season with so much pressure on him, not only individually, but as a team. Three years ago, when Colangelo took over and remade the roster, no one really expected the Raptors to make a huge impact. The new players were nice, but only T.J. Ford was a proven commodity. It’s different this year.
With two of the biggest free agent signings in Raptor history, a number of trades that have transformed the team and a top ten lottery pick who is often compared to the Raptors most storied player, Raptor fans have huge expectations. There will be a large number of fans who will be disappointed if the Raptors don’t reach the second round of the playoffs. Personally, I think this is a little ridiculous. Who cares how far they go this year? What they need more than some singular goal that is dependant only partly on the team itself, is for the team to show growth and potential, and reach the very achievable goal of making the playoffs and being competitive there, but not necessarily making it to the second round. With Cleveland, Orlando and Boston pretty much locking up the top three spots, and an Atlanta team that has shown growth every year and should be even better this season, expecting a completely remade roster to suddenly supplant more seasoned teams is expecting too much. First make the playoffs, then build off that experience, just as Orlando, Cleveland and Atlanta have.
As for Bosh, he’s going to become a free agent for the first time next summer, so his play will be scrutinized by every other team. He’s come into the season bigger and stronger after a summer workout designed to build up his body. Last November showed what Bosh is capable of doing, when he was in the top three in scoring and rebounding. I don’t think he’ll finish this season that high, not with LeBron, Wade, Durant and Kobe in the league, but I think an increase in scoring shouldn’t be surprising. All indications are that Bosh will shoot more inside which most likely means a climb in his shooting percentage. Just a increase by a couple of percent would bring him near the 24 ppg mark. None of the new additions should take shots away from Bosh since the only one with any real scoring mentality is Belinelli, and he should be playing mostly with the second unit. Plus, with the team running more, there will be more points to be had for everyone. Bosh very much wants to be looked at on the same level as LeBron, Kobe and Wade, and he knows that in order to do so, he must produce like them. This is his chance.
As for next summer, if I’m right about the first two parts of this prediction, I’m confident the last part will come true, as well. Bosh likes Toronto, and if they have a successful season and show growth potential, I don’t see Bosh turning down more money to go play somewhere else. Playing with Wade or LeBron might be attractive, but does Bosh want to be looked at as a second banana, or does he want to try and lead a team to the promised land? I know many Raptor fans feel he would be best in a Pau Gasol-type role, but is that what Bosh wants? Or does he want to prove he can be the guy who can lead the team? From what I’ve seen of Bosh, he’ll want to prove himself, and that means leading his own team. Of the other teams that could vie for Bosh, really only Chicago is viable, in my opinion. The rest simply don’t have enough talent, and I don’t see Bosh wanting to wait to rebuild, again. And all things being equal, is Chicago’s talent really that much better than Toronto’s? especially when you consider that the Raptors will have a deeper team than Chicago. If the Raptors finish with a better record than the Bulls, would Bosh really want to change teams? I don’t think so.
The Curious Case of Cleveland
Posted on | August 30, 2009 | 5 Comments
This past season, Cleveland won a league best 66 games with a roster that consisted of one of the best players of all time, and a bunch of players who probably looked a lot better simply because they were playing with him.
The second best player was Mo Williams, who only made the All Star team because he played on the 66 win Cavaliers and because Chris Bosh was injured and couldn’t play. A PG who averages 17.8 ppg, 4.1 apg and does little else but shoot is not exactly most people’s idea of an All Star. In fact, when he had very similar numbers in Milwaukee, the previous two seasons (he averaged 2 more assists, but shoot a worse percentage from 3), he wasn’t mentioned once for the All-Star game. A testament to playing with LeBron.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas is nearly a decade older than LeBron, and hasn’t been a top center in four or five years. He’s slowed considerably in the last few years, and he was slow to begin with. Do you remember when a fat and out of shape Charles Barkley barely beat a 67 year old Dick Bavetta in a race at the All-Star game a couple of years ago? That was Usain Bolt and Michael Johnson in comparison to Ilgauskas running the floor. He’s 34 years old and does not really fit in with a Cavs team that wants to, and should, run more.
Then you’ve got Delonte West and Anderson Varejao. I put them together, because in many ways they’re similar. On any other team, they’d be fantastic players to have coming off the bench because they provide energy and defense. West also provides scoring and Varejao grabs boards. Nice players, but not guys you generally want starting unless the rest of the starting lineup is stacked. On Cleveland, they play the third and fourth most minutes on the team. If you like the PER rating, both were below average, in that respect.
I’m not a huge proponent of John Hollinger’s PER rating, but it is a good indicator, when taken in concert with other factors (like, say, watching them play!). Outside of LeBron, not one Cleveland Cavalier had a PER rating that would put them in the top 50 in the league. And it wasn’t even close. Besides Kobe, the Lakers had two (Gasol and Bynum). San Antonio has two in the top 11 (Parker and Ginobili) besides Duncan. Orlando has just one (Nelson), but have one more this year (Carter), not including Howard. Boston only has one in the top 50, but it’s somewhat deceiving because Garnett was injured and because they have six players above the league average. Cleveland has three, including LeBron.
Why I mention all of this is not to show how good a player LeBron James is but to show that Cleveland, despite their record, was not a very talented team and probably needed to make a couple of big moves this summer. Yes, a big and possibly the only reason Cleveland lost to Orlando in the playoffs was because they matched up so poorly with them (that won’t be the case this season only because of Orlando’s roster changes), but if you stick LeBron in for any other top 20 player on any team in the league, there’s a good bet that team would finish with a similar record. You replace Bosh with LeBron and the Raptors would be a favourite to win the Championship this year. That’s not a shot at Bosh, but an indication of just how good LeBron is.
So first thing, the Cavs go out and trade for Shaq. The same Shaq that is arguably a top ten player of all time, who has 4 NBA Championships, 3 Final MVP Awards and 1 MVP Award. Well, not exactly. No, there’s not another Shaq in the league, but this is not the same Shaq who won three Championships with the Lakers, or even the one who helped Dwayne Wade win his Championship.
Even when he was with the Lakers, Shaq could be a detriment on the defensive end because of his inability to guard the pick and roll. Years later, he’s even worse. Cleveland won 66 games, in large part, because they were possibly the best defensive team in the league. They lost against Orlando in the playoffs, in large part, because they couldn’t defend the pick and roll with Orlando’s big shooters. Shaq has increased his number of fouls per minute as he’s gotten older as teams have isolated him on that end of the floor and taken advantage of his weaknesses. Just imagine how he’d do on the defensive end against a team like the Raptors. Who exactly would he guard?
Shaq is now 37 years old, has missed at least 10 games in more than half the seasons he’s played, and his three last seasons he was in Miami, he missed a total of 86 games. That’s more than an NBA season. On every single team he’s played on, he had problems either with the coach or the other star player. He’s delayed surgery until training camp because he didn’t want to miss the summer healing. In his own words, ”I got hurt on company time, so I’ll heal on company time.” Not the kind of statement you’d figure from a franchise player making $20 million per season. He’s an attention seeker that constantly opens his mouth when he shouldn’t and often seems to have the maturity of a petulant teenager. But you probably want to know what I really think of him, don’t you?
On the offensive end, it sounds great having a 20 ppg big man, but I see problems on that end, too. Although Ilgauskas is slow and the not the player he was, he played well with LeBron in the half court because of his ability to shoot from outside, leaving the lane open for Lebron’s devastating drives to the hoop. Now, how open is the lane going to be for LeBron with a 350 lbs behemoth standing there, asking for the ball. With his recent focus on defense, LeBron barely has any weakness in his game, but he does have one. His jumpshot. Mind you, it’s improved since his rookie season, but with the form he shoots, he’s never going to be a great outside shooter. So how exactly does having Shaq in them middle help LeBron’s offensive game? It doesn’t. Plus, Shaq commits more offensive fouls as he gets older because he lacks the quickness and athletic ability he used to have and ends up going through more defenders rather than around them.
Shaq is famous for saying all the right things, but not so famous at actually following through with them. Shaq points to Miami as an example of how he can become a supporting player to another superstar, but there were problems in Miami when they didn’t win. He demanded the ball, criticized the coach and ruined the team chemistry enough that they had him shipped away before he could become more of a problem. In Phoenix he lasted all of a year and a half before the business-like players on the Suns had had enough of his antics. Plus, he made the team worse, not better than they were with Shawn Marion. It’s most likely that Shaq will get along famously with LeBron and his teammates, who are less business like (and younger) than Steve Nash and the Suns. His relationship with Mike Brown is more of a question mark. Shaq famously criticized Stan Van Gundy while he was coaching Orlando to the Finals. If Cleveland falters, whether in the regular season or playoffs, it’s a good bet that Brown with be a target of Shaq.
Now adding Shaq was not the only move Cleveland’s GM, Danny Ferry made. He also added two former Raptors to the squad in Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon. Now, I’ve always been a fan of Parker since his first days with the Raptors. I think he’s a better player than his stats show because of his experience and leadership. I think he’s a nice pickup for Cleveland. His three point shooting and defense will be a big boost for the team. Using some of the MLE to sign him, however, was a little puzzling. Especially when they used the rest of their MLE to sign Jamario Moon.
Moon is a physically talented player who has the ability to play lockdown defense and can be breathtaking filling the lane for a dunk. He also doesn’t seem to ever understand when and when not to shoot, is frequently out of position on defense and has regressed considerably since in his rookie year.
I would have thought a team like Cleveland would have been able to get players of Parker and Moon’s calibre for the veteran’s minimum, or in the case of Parker, the bi-annual exception. When the Lakers get Ron Artest, Houston gets Trevor Ariza, Toronto gets Jarrett Jack and Milwaukee gets Hakim Warrick, all for the MLE or less, one might think that Cleveland could have done better with theirs
They did get Leon Powe, but he won’t be ready until the New Year. Cleveland has done poorly this offseason, partly due to their own decisions and partly due to the fact that free agents are leery of signing with them in case LeBron bolts next summer. I’d be shocked if they match last season’s win total and wouldn’t be surprised if they get knocked out in the Eastern Conference Finals again this season. And if they do, I would expect to see LeBron in another uniform next year and Danny Ferry out of a job.
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