(If you haven’t read the first and second parts, please do, as this post will make a lot more sense if you do)

So in parts 1 and 2, we looked at the 16 year history of the Raptors organization that seemed to be so focused on not losing that it couldn’t manage to actually win, very much. The Raptors have spent nearly their entire existence on the mediocrity treadmill. For an NBA team and it’s fans, that’s basically hell.

So now we turn our attention to a few other franchises, and see what they’ve done.

CLEVELAND FLIRTS WITH A CHAMPIONSHIP

When Cleveland drafted LeBron James, it was probably the greatest turning point in their entire existence. Except for a brief period in the 90′s, the Cavaliers were synonymous with poor management and losing.

When LeBron was drafted, the Cavs roster was made up of a collection of mediocre veterans and a few promising youngsters (Carlos Boozer, Ricky Davis, Darius Miles). the promising, but flawed, youngsters were traded away or left, and in their place came veterans who could help the team immediately.

While they were able to acquire Anderson Varejao, the majority of the moves the Cavs made were either forgettable or one you’d rather forget (trading a first round pick for Jiri Welsch in February and then turning around and trading Welsch for a 2nd round pick- turning a 1st round pick into a second in a matter of months!). Still the team went from 17 wins the season before LeBron, to 35 and then 42 wins. It was obvious this team was on it’s way up.

When Danny Ferry was hired as the Cavs GM, in 2005, he made an immediate splash, signing volume scorer, the 27 year old Larry Hughes to a massive contract, and 32 year old Donyell Marshall (from the Raptors). At that point, of the 8 players that played the most minutes, only 2 were below the age of 26. They did go out and win 50 games and get to the second round of the playoffs, though.

The next season, with Danny Ferry basically standing pat with the roster, the team went out and won 50 games again, this time getting all the way to the Finals. Despite the success in the playoffs, the Cavs didn’t carry over the momentum to the regular season and Ferry decided to shake things up, trading away almost half the roster, and grabbing among others, 33 year old Ben Wallace and 32 year old Joe Smith. The team ended up winning just 45 games and losing again in the second round.

Probably the best move Danny Ferry made as GM, was when he turned Joe Smith into Mo Williams. It was one of the few times that Ferry attempted to make the team younger. And somehow, the Cavs gelled and ended up destroying the league in the regular season, winning 66 games. But then the playoffs came and they got bounced in the Conference Finals by Orlando.

So Ferry pulled the trigger on a trade that sent Ben Wallace to the Suns for Shaquille O’Neal. It was an act of desperation for the Cavs, who felt that winning a Championship was the only way to keep LeBron, who was in the last year of his contract. They then used a good portion of their MLE to sign 34 year old Anthony Parker, and then went out and traded for 33 year old Antawn Jamison. By season’s end, the Cavs had 3 starters who were 33, 34 and 37 and whose best years were well behind them.

Is it any wonder that when LeBron decided to abandon the team, they ended up winning only 19 games the next season?

While the Cavs ended up finding much more success than the Raptors did, using a similar plan, that was mostly due to the fact that LeBron was simply much better than Vince Carter ever was.  And the results ended up being the same. An unsustainable climb by acquiring aging veterans whose stock can only decline.

Like the Raptors, the Cavs had to start making riskier and riskier moves, acquiring older and older players, because when you keep acquiring declining assets, you lose more and more leverage. And just like the Raptors, right near the end they took a risk on an aging Hall of Fame center whose best years were behind him.

OKLAHOMA DECIDES TO GO YOUNG

The Thunder are probably one of the most discussed teams, in terms of building through the draft with youth, but quite frankly, that’s because they’ve done a textbook-like job.

When Sam Presti took over the then Seattle Supersonics, they had just come off a 31 win season, had two 20+ppg All-Stars on the roster, some half decent young talent and a number 2 pick in the draft. After drafting 19 year old Kevin Durant, Presti made a choice that was basically the complete opposite of what the Raptors and Cleveland had done. Keeping former All-Stars, Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen would certainly have made the team competitive, possibly even a playoff team with a move or two, Presti wisely decided that at ages 27 and 31, Lewis and Allen were declining assets who would probably be too old to help the team when Durant was entering his prime.

Presti first traded Allen for 5th pick, Jeff Green, as well as Wally Szczerbiak and his expiring contract, and Delonte West, both of whom were ironically traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers just one season later. Then Presti decided not to match Orlando’s massive contract offer for Lewis, leaving the team without their two best players in a matter of days.

Instead of surrounding Durant with veterans, which would have speeded up the team’s development, but limited it’s growth, Presti preached patience, and decided to surround their new franchise player with players his own age, allowing them to grow and develop together. While it meant the team was actually worse the next season, winning just 20 games, they were also able to pick up future All-Star, Russell Westbrook in the next draft. They improved only slightly the next season, again, giving them a top 3 pick, grabbing James Harden.

In just three seasons, the Sonics/Thunder were able to acquire three top 5 picks and the very next season they jumped from 23 wins to 50 wins. They never added one major veteran over the age of 25 and by the time they win 50 games, they only had two rotation players over the age of 25- 26 year old Nenad Krstic, who signed the previous season, and 29 year old Nick Collison, who was the only holdover from the pre-Presti era.

And with a starting of with an average age of just 23 years old, the Oklahoma City Thunder won 55 games last season on their way to a Conference Finals appearance. And it’s certainly not inconceivable that, as long as they are able to keep their core together, the Thunder will be contenders for the next 10 years.

If the Thunder had kept Allen and Lewis, the team would already be trying to figure out how to replace them.

CLIPPERS (MIS)MANAGEMENT

One of the most common arguments again “tanking” is that you don’t want to end up like the Los Angeles Clippers. Of course, that argument may not work anymore, after trading for Chris Paul, but it never really worked anyway.

The problem with the Clippers was not that they were always trying to lose and get high draft picks, it’s that they were simply badly mismanaged and drafted poorly when they got to the draft.

If the Cleveland Cavaliers were synonymous with poor management and losing, the Clippers made them look good.

In their 47 year history, the Clippers have made the playoffs just 7 times. That’s just 2 more than the Raptors, in nearly 3 times the amount of time. To the Clippers, mediocrity would have been a step up. In the last 30 years, the Clippers have drafted in the top ten 23 times. They’ve had a top 5 pick 13 times. Yet, somehow in all that time, they only managed to draft 3 All Stars. Actually, that’s not entirely true. They drafted five All-Stars, but traded away two of them before they became All-Stars. You could probably manage a better drafting record than them by throwing darts at a board. I could probably write and entire post devoted to their poor drafting.

So needless to say, the Clippers have not been successful, but that turned around in the last few years, when they drafted Eric Gordon and then got the 1st pick in the draft the next year and took Blake Griffin. Unlike previous eras, when young players were traded away for veterans either past their prime or who never had one, the Clippers actually started stockpiling their young talent.

While Griffin and Gordon are definitely stars, there’s a question of whether either are the type of elite talent that can lead a team to a Championship. Thankfully, that doesn’t matter since they were able to use their stockpile of youth and Chris Kaman’s expiring contract, to trade for Chris Paul.

Now, what is the difference between what Cleveland and Toronto did and what the Clippers did? There are a couple.

First is that Paul is only 26 years old. He’s not a 31 year old athletic wing player or 33 year old big man.

Secondly, and most importantly, Paul IS their franchise player now. Griffin is a great talent, he’s not the type to make those around him better. He’s not a good passer or stellar defender and most of his scoring is done by being more athletic than his opponent. He is much more suited to a complimentary role, and with Paul running the point, he can now do that.

Without Chris Paul, the Clippers probably had a ceiling similar to the Atlanta Hawks- the second round. The number of teams without a top 10 player on it that have been a true contender, in the last 20-30 years you can count on one hand. And now the Clippers have that.

SO WHAT TO DO?

So this brings us back to the Raptors and this season.

Now there is a portion of Raptor fans who hate to see the Raptors lose intentionally and that nothing good ever comes from tanking. Well, first of all, I don’t think anyone is suggesting the team actually “tank”. That would involve trading away the team’s best players and not giving the team a shot to even be competitive in games. Cleveland and Denver did that and all it got them were LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony. Er…nevermind.

The Raptors currently have the talent to vie for the top spot in the NBA….draft. So the best thing that Colangelo can do, and seems to be doing, is to just let them play. Don’t try to win a few more games just to make the team look slightly better. In the end that gets you nothing but what Raptor fans have had to put up with for the past 16 years. Mediocrity, at best.

The few more wins that a Tyson Chandler or even a Shane Battier might get you may be the difference between a top 3 pick and yet another good, but not great, draft pick. As 82Games.com showed, there’s a big dropoff after the fifth pick.

When you’re walking the line between mediocrity and being a contender, the difference might be just a few ping pong balls.

Now as I mentioned in the first post, PhDSteve, over at Raptors Republic argued in his latest podcast that it doesn’t really matter where the Raptors pick because there’s no real consensus #1 and the Raptors can get a good PG later in the draft.

That would make sense if the Raptors biggest need is a PG. It isn’t. The Raptors biggest need, far outweighing any position or skill, is a franchise player. Who cares if the Raptors get the best PG in the draft if they still don’t have a franchise player. In the NBA, teams generally only go as far as their best player can take them. Atlanta’s problem is not that they don’t have a good team. It’s that Joe Johnson is a perennial All-Star, but not a truly elite player.

In fact, Toronto’s history shows the limitations teams have without truly elite players. While Vince had the potential to be one of the greats, he never fulfilled that potential and the farthest the team could get with him was the second round. Bosh was a perennial All-Star, but simply not the type of talent that can lift a team above mediocrity.

While there might not be any sure-fire Hall of Famers, like Tim Duncans or LeBron James’, there are still a few potential franchise players in this draft. Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond , Perry Jones and Harrison Barnes have been the most talked about (although I personally am not sure Barnes has any elite skill that would allow him to be a franchise player), but Quincy Miller and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist also have some potential. That’s six players, but most likely half are not going to fulfill that potential, so getting first crack is all the more important.

IN CONCLUSION

While pushing towin as many games as you can might seem like a good idea, if your goal is to compete for an NBA Championship, it’s simply not always a sound strategy. While getting one of the worst records in the league certainly is no guarantee of a top 3 pick, it gives you the best chance. It’s been said that the best thing for these young players on the Raptors is to start trying to compete now, but without a franchise player, exactly what would they be competing for? More of what we’ve seen over the last 16 years. And that’s simply not good enough.

And after the inevitable fall that came, the Raptors were able to finish with a top 3 pick and draft Chris Bosh.

THE ROB BABCOCK ERA

Glen Grunwald didn’t even last for a season after selecting Bosh and was eventually replaced by Rob Babcock who, while a poor judge of talent and terrible GM, at least seemed to understand the downside to collecting even more veteran talent (well, he did sign 28 year old Rafer Alston, who was relatively young compared to Grunwald’s signings). Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean that Babcock seemed to fully understand the position he was in.

He took over a 33 win team with a franchise player in his prime (27 is generally thought of to be the prime of an NBA player), with a history of injuries and a game that relied a lot on athleticism. And the roster consisted of only 3 players BELOW the age of 26: Bosh, Matt Bonner and Babcock’s first ever draft pick as a GM, Rafael Araujo, who, at 24, was actually 4 years older than Bosh. How can you NOT realize that it’s time to rebuild?

Even Carter figured it out and demanded a trade by the end of the summer when it became clear that this team was going nowhere, as presently constructed. And Babcock eventually had to trade him for 7 cents on the dollar.

So with a young Bosh and a bunch of mediocre veterans around him, the team sailed to yet another 33 win season, adding the mediocre Charlie Villaneuva and and not quite mediocre Joey Graham as the prize for another year of mediocrity.

And the Raptors were even worse the next season, winning just 27 games, which was low enough to net them the first pick in the draft. The bad news is that the draft was not considered to be a very good one. It’s like your number coming up in a raffle only to discover that you don’t get the big screen TV or front row Raptor tickets, but the potpourri gift basket. You’d throw your number back in, if you could, but you can’t.

COLANGELO TRIES MORE OF THE SAME

When Bryan Colangelo was hired away from Phoenix, he was given a number 1 pick in an off year and cap room in an offseason where the top free agent might have been 37 year old Sam Cassell. So Colangelo ignored past Raptor history and loaded up the team with veterans to surround Bosh, Bargnani and the newly acquired TJ Ford, all who were between the ages of 21 and 23, with 31 year old Anthony Parker, 29 year old Jorge Garbajosa, and 30 year old Rasho Nesterovic.

And the Raptors ended up tying the franchise mediocrity record of 47 wins and making it to the first round of the playoffs. And this was considered a success.

Since Glen Grunwald had already traded away the first rounder away years before, Colangelo made a splash in free agency by signing the very mediocre Jason Kapono, who was coming off a career year in Miami (apparently Colangelo never learned the lesson about signing free agents coming off career years during a contract year).

And then they went out and won an incredibly mediocre 41 wins (.500) and got bounced again in the first round.

So, taking a page from his predecessor, Glen Grunwald, Colangelo trades away a first round pick and 24 year old T.J. Ford for 30 year old (although that sounds better than it actually was- he had 40 year old knees) Jermaine O’Neal.¹

O’Neal didn’t even last the season before he was traded away for the equally ancient 30 year old Shawn Marion, who had been on the decline for the previous two seasons.

The team finished well out of the playoff hunt, but not far enough down to get a decent shot at a top 3 pick, so ended up drafting 9th, picking DeMar DeRozan.

While Jermaine O’Neal or Shawn Marion didn’t get them to the playoffs, it did allow them to have the cap room to be a major player in the free agent market. And while Colangelo did go after the 24 year old Trevor Ariza, the free agent he ended up with was the 30 year old Hedo Turkoglu, who was beginning to look like his best days were behind him.

And they were.

And so the Raptors finished just out of the playoffs, again.

Bosh left, Turkoglu was traded and after a botched trade attempt that almost brought Tyson Chandler to Toronto, Colangelo was forced to do something that had never actually been tried in Raptors history: An actual rebuild.

AND FINALLY, A REBUILD

While Colangelo may or may not have wanted or planned to do it, the Raptors entered the 2010-11 season with no playoff expectations whatsoever. Colangelo even picked up a couple of young players, in Jerryd Bayless and James Johnson, who were languishing on veterans teams. The team lost big and ended up with a top 5 pick. If history repeated itself, the Raptors probably would have selected someone like Kemba Walker or Brandon Knight, who could have helped them immediately, and then used their cap room to grab a decent veteran or two in order to try and compete immediately.

But that’s not what happened.

While the 2011 draft was not highly regarded, like the 2006 draft it had been compared to, the Raptors ended up picking Jonas Valanciunas, who some feel might end up being the best player from the draft. They chose him despite the fact that he wouldn’t be able to come over to the NBA until next season, which probably dropped his stock allowing the Raptors to scoop him up a couple of places lower than he might have gone.

So the Raptors entered this offseason with a roster whose average age is under 26.

This is not Glen Grunwald‘s Raptors.

When the lockout finally ended and teams were allowed to start talking, if not making, deals, there was a lot of discussion in Raptorland about what the team should do.

“What’s the harm in signing a guy like Tyson Chandler?”

“Why not go after a guy like Shane Battier?”

“Let’s try and make the playoffs now.”

“I don’t want another year of losing!”

Now, to me, the fans who were saying these types of things have simply not been paying attention to the Raptors franchise very closely over the last 16 years. And this is where the famous quote from the title comes in.

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

Coming up next, the conclusion to the thrilling trilogy…

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^{1. Truth be told, I was not completely against the T.J. Ford for Jermaine O’Neal trade. While it was not the deal I probably would have made, I thought it was a bold move that may or may not backfire, but at that point felt something big needed to be done. I also never saw the trade as as much of a failure as others. While O’Neal obviously didn’t have the impact that many hoped, it’s hard to blame it on O’Neal when the supporting cast was so abysmal.}

If you’re a Raptor fan, you no doubt heard the rumours that were flying around at the beginning of the “offseason”. Most of them I mentioned in a previous post. And if you’re a Raptor fan, no doubt you debated with another Raptor fan about whether or not signing one of the better free agents would be a good idea. To some Raptor fans, signing a guy like Tyson Chandler, DeAndre Jordan or even Shane Battier would have been a no-brainer. Why not improve the team if you can, right? Well, other fans feel that the team is not going to compete anyway, so with the upcoming draft looking like one of the better ones in more than a decade, the last thing the team should be doing is adding more wins, which would take chances away from finishing in the top 3 in the NBA Draft Lottery.

If you want to know my opinion, you just have to look at the history of the Raptors.

NOT GOOD ENOUGH, BUT NOT BAD ENOUGH

In their 16 years of existence, the Raptors have finished between .320 and .580 twelve times. That’s twelve times out of sixteen where the team has finished with between 26 wins and 47 wins¹. During those seasons the Raptors made the playoffs four times, only making it to the second round once. The times they didn’t make the playoffs, only once did they secure a top five draft pick, when they won the lottery and selected Andrea Bargnani.

Meanwhile, the 4 times they finished below 26 wins, they came up with Marcus Camby, Vince Carter, Chris Bosh and Jonas Valanciunas. While Valanciunas hasn’t had a chance to play in the NBA, yet, Carter and Bosh all went on to become perennial All-Stars and All-NBA players, and Camby went on to become the 2007 Defensive Player of the Year.

The Raptors have won a franchise best 47 wins twice in their history. The first time with Carter and the second time with Bosh. Carter lead the Raptors to three playoff berths while Bosh lead Toronto to two.

To me, it’s obvious that the most success the Raptors have had was when they started off at the bottom. The 16 wins in 1998 led to Vince Carter and eventually three consecutive playoff appearances, including their only second round appearance. The 24 wins in 2003 led to Chris Bosh and two consecutive playoff appearances.

Last year, with Bosh gone to Miami,the Raptors started the season without an All-Star on the roster for the first time in more than a decade. Despite this, many fans were talking about playoffs again, despite predictions to the contrary by most media pundits and those connected to the NBA. Then the team went out and lost 60 games and got the fifth pick in the draft, and some think possibly the best player, in Jonas Valanciunas. Maybe it’s just me, but I think that’s better than another first round exit or, even worse, a low lottery pick.

Now, Jonas will not be playing for the Raptors until next season, and even if the Raptors had signed a Chandler or Gasol or even a Battier, their chances of making the playoffs this year were slim. Whether Raptor fans like to believe it or not, the team this year may not be any better, and might possibly be worse, than last year’s squad (I’ll go into that on another post).

That may sound depressing for Raptor fans, but on the bright side, the upcoming draft is supposed to be one of the best in a while. PhDSteve, over at Raptors Republic, recently did a podcast that talked specifically about the draft and what the Raptors strategy regarding it, and I have to say I respectfully disagree.

Before I get to why I disagree, let’s first look at what the Raptors have done in the past when they HAVE been able to draft a potential franchise player.

THE VETERAN PARADE

When the Toronto Raptors drafted Vince Carter, they knew they had something special. They also knew that their earlier draft pick, Tracy McGrady, had the potential to be something special, too. It was then that Raptors GM Glen Grunwald made a decision that would end up ushering in an era where the name Raptors was synonymous with excitement. The decision also meant that success was limited and short lived, with the Raptors only making the playoffs for three years before being sent back to the lottery for another four years before Chris Bosh lead them back to a brief playoff rebirth.

A couple of weeks before the 1998 Draft, the Raptors traded away Roy Rogers and two first round picks for the 36 year old Kevin Willis. Grunwald obviously had decided to bring in more veterans, knowing that’s the path to more immediate improvement.

And then, just a day after the Raptors drafted Vince Carter (well, actually Antawn Jamison who was turned into Vince Carter) they traded the 24 year old Marcus Camby, who was coming off a disappointing season, but still had a lot of promise, to the Knicks for a player who was more than 10 years older, Charles Oakley.

It’s not as if these two players did not have an immediate impact. While Vince exploded onto the scene in his rookie year, it was the veteran leadership of Oakley and Willis, as well as veteran holdovers, Doug Christie and Dee Brown, that helped propel the team to what would amount to a 21 game improvement (the 23 games they won in a 50 game season is equal to 37 games in an 82 game season). Huge, by any measure.

Unfortunately, the team missed out on the playoffs, but with the help of an earlier trade that had sent a young Chauncey Billups² to Denver, the Raptors were able to secure the 5th pick in the draft, in addition to their 12th pick³. Feeling the Raptors needed more veteran firepower to reach the playoffs, Grunwald turned the pick into 31 year old Antonio Davis, and then went out and signed a pair of 35 year old free agents, in Dell Curry and Muggsy Bogues.

During the 2000 season, the average age of the ten players that played at least 600 minutes was 30 years old. For a team whose two leading scorers were 23 and 20, this was NOT a young team. And behind that veteran play, the team went out and won 45 games and qualified for the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, although got swept in 3 games by the New York Knicks.

Not long after the Raptors were sent home packing, the Raptors were dealt a blow when up and coming star, Tracy McGrady, fled a team he felt didn’t respect him and that he couldn’t be the main man on with his cousin taking so much of the spotlight. In his place, they drafted Morris Peterson and signed 35 year old Mark Jackson (as well as a 38 year old Tyrone Corbin). Jackson only lasted to the trade deadline when he and Muggsy Bogues were traded for a slightly younger 33 year old Chris Childs.

Are you starting to see the pattern here? Chris Childs was followed by a 39 year old Hakeem Olajuwon, followed by a 30 year old Lamond Murray, and a 30 year old Donyell Marshall and 31 year old Jalen Rose.

The parade of veterans was not enough to prevent the decline of the team, going from a mediocre 47 wins and a memorable second round appearance back to the depths of the lottery again in just 5 years.

The prize for that was Chris Bosh.

And then history repeated itself…

Read part 2…

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^{1. Due to the lockout and subsequent shortened season in 1998-99, their 23 wins was equivalent to 38 wins. And anywhere from 26 to 47 wins is the meaty part of the mediocrity treadmill, where the Raptors have pretty much lived their entire existence and the reason for this post.}  

^{2. While it would have been nice if Toronto had seen the potential in Chauncey Billups, he took him 4 more years before he came into his own. Still, the Raptors had Chauncey Billups, Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady and Marcus Camby at one point. They never actually played together, and were only on the same team during the offseason of 1998, when the NBA was on strike, but still, it makes you think about what might have been.}

^{3. The Raptors famously drafted Jonathan Bender and then dodged a bullet by trading him for Antonio Davis, but they drafted him for the Pacers. What is rarely discussed is who the Raptors could have also drafted. Yes, Davis made a big impact and helped the team make the playoffs, but the success was short lived. Davis was 31 when he was traded to the Raptors, so the window with him wasn’t incredibly big. If the Raptors had used their pick to select Andre Miller or Shawn Marion, and then used their 12th pick to select Ron Artest or even Corey Maggette, the Raptors would have been better in the long term. But Grunwald wanted the immediate success an established veteran would bring.}

After all the posturing and hard line stances on both sides, the details that are emerging for the deal arent radically different from the previous deal. All those great ideas people had about “fixing” the NBA are now moot. Personally, I would have loved to have seen some sort of a “franchise player” system that would prevent players from stacking their teams with superstars and make it harder for a franchise player to leave his original team, but the more I read about the new agreement the more fair it seems for both sides.

The comment by one veteran player that the players “caved” doesn’t make an ounce of sense. But the players who have been the most vocal recently during the lockout have seemed like the least grounded in reality. The owners gave up far more for this deal than I would have guessed they were going to. Saying no to the deal would have benefitted a small minority of players and really hurt a lot of players who simply could never have made up the money they would have lost had they not played the season.

As a fan, the thing that works best is that is allows them to play basketball again.

So whats next?

Since I don’t know all the particulars, yet, I can’t comment on everything, but I do know there are still a few issues yet to be worked out. The so-called B issues. One of which is the age limit for players entering the draft. Apparently the NBA would like to see it raised, something the Players Association is mixed on. Personally, I would like to see it raised to 20, like the NBA does, but as a Raptor fan, I’d like to see them hold off on that for at least a year. Why? This guy…

It’s a little early to be looking towards the draft as well as crowning anyone the #1 pick, but right now I’m VERY big on Anthony Davis. Davis plays the way I would have at that age were I a foot taller. And it’s not surprising since Davis used to be a 6’3 PG until he went on a growth spurt in his junior year and grew eight inches. I’m going to discuss him more in the future, but one of the things that jumps out at me is his passing ability. He sees the floor like a PG because he was one, but he’s now 6’10 and throwing Walton-esque outlet passes.

If the age limit went up, then Davis would be prevented from entering the draft until 2013, when the Raptors should hopefully be trying to vie for the playoffs.

One argument that keeps coming up of why the players would allow a raised age limit doesn’t pass the logic test for me. Michael McCann recently wrote in Sport Illustrated…

The union will probably compromise this time around as well since, A) raising the limit would only directly impact those players not yet in the union and thus those who have no voice and; B) a higher limit would mean that more veterans keep their jobs every year. Still, there are many NBA players who believe firmly in not raising the age restriction and this is not an easy issue to resolve over a weekend.

It’s B) that I have a problem with. Maybe someone could explain to me how having older players entering the league would allow more veterans to keep their job? It’s not as if there will be fewer players being drafted. And they’ll still be about the same amount of undrafted players vying for roster spots. The ONLY difference is many of those players will be more polished and more ready to contribute than if they’d come out a year earlier.

Now it could be true that NEXT year there will be less competition for roster spots because the pool will suddenly shrink, but by the year after everything will have balanced out. You’ll still get the same amount of players entering the draft, it will just be compressed into sophomores, juniors and seniors.

Well, without know any more, there’s not much more I can say, but when I find out more I’ll post more thoughts on the deal.

So if the lockout really is over, you can all be satisfied to know I will be posting on a more semi-regular basis.

Despite knowing that they would get two cookies if only they wait a bit, the vast majority of the kids ate the cookie sitting on the table. Why? Because most young kids live completely in the present and can’t comprehend a future that is not directly in front of them.

So what does this have to do with the Raptor’s draft pick, Jonas Valanciunas?

Well, I have to say I was shocked to hear about all the negative reaction involving the Raptors pick. While I was disappointed that Kanter failed to fall to 5, I was thrilled when David Stern called out Valanciunas’ name. Thrilled and relieved. Part of me, like last year, was afraid Colangelo would turn his nose up at the gift sitting in front of him and stay with his plan. Maybe I’m still stinging from when the Raptors had Andre Iguodala fall into their laps only to politely hand him to the 76ers and instead opt for Rafael Araujo.

So how the hell does this have to do with kids and cookies? I’m getting to that.

As I said, I was a little taken aback by the reaction of the fans. Overwhelmingly negative, or so it seemed. The comments ranged from disappointment that Colangelo didn’t take an NCAA star like Kemba Walker or Brandon Knight, to puzzlement that they didn’t draft someone who would help immediately, to blatant and extremely ignorant xenophobia.

The strangest comments revolved around the fact that the Raptors desperately needed a point guard and didn’t draft one. Sorry? While most people don’t see Jose Calderon or Jerryd Bayless as the point guard of the future for the Raptors, I fail to see how they need to be desperately replaced. Calderon is a far better point guard than many give him credit for, and has been good enough to help the team be one of the best scoring teams over the last 5 years. And Bayless certainly showed he deserves a chance to build on the success he showed at the end of this past season.

To me, center is probably the position most in need of upgrading. While I don’t buy the line that Andrea Bargnani has been playing out of position and is really a 4, no one can argue the Raptors don’t need a new center that isn’t going to hand opposing players rebounds and show the way to the hoop. It’s pretty obvious to me that the center position was the greatest need for the Raptors.

But that’s not why drafting Valanciunas was a good idea.

There were many that felt that Kemba Walker and Brandon Knight were simply better players, having had success in the NCAA. Of course, that is a view not held by the majority of scouts and paid NBA people who probably know a little more than the average Raptor fan. A lot of these fans were the same ones that booed when Ed O’Bannon wasn’t drafted by the Raptors. Unfortunately a lot of North American basketball fans don’t have a very wide perspective. Most Raptor fans only watch Raptor games or the NCAA Tournament, so really have little idea what goes on in most of the basketball world. How many of them would have booed if the Raptors had drafted Robert “Tractor” Traylor and then traded him for that German guy no one had ever heard of? Or if they’d taken Pau Gasol ahead of Shane Battier or even Eddy Curry?

Just because you LIKE a player better, doesn’t actually make him a better player. Both Walker and Knight have their issues that caused them to drop. No one knows if Walker can even play PG, which would be a problem, especially considering that he’s VERY similar to Jerryd Bayless when he came out. Compare the two and see.

And Walker, while a very successful college player, has neither the length nor shot to suggest he can be anywhere near the player he was in college. And I can’t get Damon Stoudamire out of my head. A very good college player who put up good stats as the best player on a bad team, but couldn’t find a role on a better team when he wasn’t allowed to dominate the ball like he was used to.

But the fact that Walker and Knight were questions themselves, questions that lead to them both dropping on draft night, is not what made drafting Valanciunas at 5 a good idea.

A common complaint about drafting Valanciunas is that he won’t help the team immediately. In fact, CBSSports gave the Raptors an F for that very reason (Of course, many of the grades the guy gave are incredibly perplexing. For instance he apparently thought Utah should have drafted Jimmer Fredette instead of Enes Kanter. Wow, just wow.). This would make sense if the Raptors weren’t in the position they are right now. The team won 22 games and, barring an unexpected free agent bounty, don’t have much of a chance to make the playoffs next year. Plus, there wasn’t a player available that would have changed that. Are people really getting worked up about the fact that the team might win 30 games instead of 35? Really?

How many rookies make much of a positive impact in their first year, anyway? John Wall didn’t, and he was the consensus #1 pick last year. You think Brandon Knight or Kemba Walker would have turned the Raptors into a playoff team next year?

Probably the most ignorant complaints I’ve heard about the Raptors drafting Valanciunas is that he’s European, like Bargnani, so he must be soft. My question: Have you watched the guy play before making that rather massive assumption? Obviously not, because he’s basically the complete opposite of Bargnani. Valanciunas is all defense and rebounding, at this point, with a strong motor and gets all his points around the rim. That doesn’t sound at all like Bargnani, does it?

I actually heard a lot of strange comparisons, like Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Pau Gasol and Chris Kaman. Peculiar, since none of those guys were known for their defense when they were drafted and had pretty advanced offensive skills. In fact, other than them being European and white, I fail to see the similarities.

The guy that Valanciunas actually reminds me of the most is Amir Johnson, and I’m actually surprised I haven’t heard this before.

While Valanciunas obviously has a lot more length than Amir, the two have strikingly similar games, at this point. Both are high energy, hustle players who rebound and defend well. Both are good, although not great, shotblockers. Both are better team defenders than man-to-man defenders, at this point, due to their slight builds. Both have (apparently) exceptionally good hands and are excellent pick and roll players. Both have a great touch around the basket, despite not being great offensive players, which results in a very high field goal percentage. Even their free throw percentages are similar, very good for big men.

Unfortunately, they even share the same penchant for fouling.

Now, before you start complaining that the Raptors drafted a taller version of a bench player, remember two things. The first is those few inches that Valanciunas is taller can’t be overstated. It’s the difference between Ed Davis and Dikembe Mutombo. It’s the difference between Karl Malone and Shaquille O’Neal.

If Amir Johnson were 3 inches taller, he’d probably be considered potentially a top 10 center, in the league. And probably be paid a lot more.

Secondly, and more importantly, Valanciunas is only 19 years old and about at the same stage that Amir was a year ago, at 23. I think that Amir comparison is starting to look better.

So am I ever going to get back to the cookies?

The problem is that a lot of Raptor fans seem to have a lot in common with the kids who took the cookie off the table. They don’t want to wait and can’t comprehend a future that isn’t directly in front of them. When Boston drafted Larry Bird (at 6th), they were coming off a 29 win season. And they did it knowing they would have to wait a year before he could play on the team. If they had decided to draft a player that would have helped immediately, then Reggie Theus might have been a good choice. He certainly had a decent career. Sure, Boston wouldn’t have had the decade they did, but at least they wouldn’t have had to wait that year.

San Antonio, after winning 28 games in 1987, won the lottery and had to choose between Armen Gilliam, an All American coming off a 23 and 9 season with UNLV, or David Robinson, who they’d have to wait two years for while he served his time in the Navy. Gilliam made the All-Rookie team and Phoenix, who drafted him, eventually went on to the Conference Finals twice, albeit only once with Gilliam, who was traded after two and a half years to New Jersey. Still, that’s not bad.

Now, obviously Valanciunas isn’t a Larry Bird or David Robinson, but the fact is that you need to look at the big picture when drafting a player. And most fans don’t do that. According to most people who make a living having to know this stuff, Valanciunas was the best player available, and selecting someone else, who is more well known and would have helped immediately, would have been more popular with the fans, it would have also short changed them.

So if you want your cookie right now, then Knight or Walker, or even Biyombo would have made more sense. But if you want two cookies, then Valanciunas, who just about everyone with knowledge of the situation says was the best player available, was the way to go.

Unless of course, you’re happy with this.