Whispering in Colangelo’s Ear (Offseason Strategy)

Posted on June 17, 2010 | 11 Comments

The Lakers Win!Blogger’s Note: The the Lakers win another Championship and yet another prediction doesn’t come to fruition. Did anyone else notice that whenever anyone made a prediction during the playoffs this year, it didn’t once come true? Steve Nash predicted the Suns would push the Lakers to 7 games. Didn’t come true. Paul Pierce predicted the Celtics wouldn’t return to L.A.. They did. Glen Davis predicted the Celtics would win game 7 and the title. They didn’t. Maybe it was just that no predictions involving opponents of the Lakers ever came true.

So does that mean that the Lakers AREN’T going to be looking at obtaining Bosh this summer? Does anyone remember anything good Bynum did on the court in game 7? Yes, I know he’s injured, but it’s not as if trading him away is going to take an important piece of the Championship team away.

Look at it this way, if the Lakers had Bosh, do you think the series would have gone 7 games?

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It’s no secret that things need to be done in Raptorland. The team is at a crossroads like never before in their history. If Bosh leaves, this October will mark the first time in franchise history the team will start the season without a real #1 option (I hesitate to use the term “franchise player”). It started off with Stoudamire who, while not really a franchise player, did embrace the role of lead player from the start. He was traded and the next year they had Vince. When Vince left, they had Bosh. Some may say that Bargnani is that man, but those who do haven’t read my previous posts on the matter. You can’t have a number one option that can’t create his own shot, either off the dribble, in the post or moving without the ball, none of which Bargnani does well.

So without someone to replace Bosh, the strategy should be to keep him, right?

Not exactly.

That’s not to say that I think it’s time to let Bosh go. I think people who say this are either incredibly short-sighted or overly bitter, or both. It’s true that the Raptors have had little success with Bosh. In fact, Tom Haberstroh at ESPN Insider recently wrote a piece talking about how Bosh can’t be the number one guy. He discussed how Amare and Boozer both got to the Conference Finals with Hall of Fame calibre PGs. Yes, it’s true.

Fact 1: Bosh has never even been able to lead his team to the second round and only to the playoffs twice in seven years.

Fact 2: Bosh is not in the same class as Kobe, Wade or LeBron. There’s no denying that.

Strategy

People will mistake the above two facts as reasons why the Raptors need to get rid of Bosh. I recently heard that the analogy of building a house. You start with the the foundation and build up. Bosh is a wall and having the wall before the foundation prevents you from building. Now I love analogies as much as the next person, but this is just plain stupid. First of all, a team is not a building, it’s a team. And the aim is to get the best players you can who can fit together best, in any order you can get them.

Let me use another analogy. Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. You don’t get rid of your best player because he wasn’t good enough to lead your team anywhere. You try and get more talent so the fact that he’s a top 15 player and not a top 5 player doesn’t matter. Hell, neither Shaq nor Tim Duncan won anything without at least one All NBA calibre player around them.

So after all that, it doesn’t quite explain my strategy, does it?

You see, while I do want the Raptors to re-sign Bosh, I think doing what he wants is the wrong strategy. If the Raptors number one strategy is to keep Bosh, they should  trade their young players for more established players.

The problem with this strategy is that it’s incredibly risky. If the Raptors trade away their young players and end up with, say, Andre Iguodala and Caron Butler, that makes a great team if Bosh stays, but yet another mediocre team if he leaves, and without young players around to give hope for the future.

What the Raptors SHOULD do is assume that Bosh is leaving, but hope he likes what he sees and re-signs.

Aren’t these two completely opposing strategies? Not really. I don’t think anyone would argue against the fact that the Raptors need to make fundamental changes. They didn’t lose games because they lacked talent. They lost games because they were a poorly constructed team. They obviously need to make a lot of changes whether or not Bosh leaves. It’s just a question of which ones.

So if we are going to assume Bosh is going to leave, what should the Raptors do? Well, first of all, the team is not going to compete, so trying to get veteran players who are going to win a few more games now, but not help the team in the long run, is pointless. I’m all for getting someone like Iguodala still, but I’m not going to give up DeRozan for him now like I would have before the trade deadline.

There’s a believe that the Raptors cannot rebuild, for fear of alienating their fanbase. After what has been basically 8 years of rebuilding, asking them to wait a few more might be too much. The problem with that strategy is that it seems to ignore the failure of attempting just that strategy four years ago and then this past year. Neither time worked out well. Is that what you want to give the fans?

I believe that fans will be fine with rebuilding, as long as they see progress, and the team they watch puts out an honest effort. As long as the team has young players with potential who work hard on the floor, you can buy yourself time. And that’s what the Raptors need.

Next up: My advice for the draft.

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Join the discussion: 11 Comments

Category: Celtics, Lakers, NBA, Raptors

Comments

11 Responses to “Whispering in Colangelo’s Ear (Offseason Strategy)”

  2. d279
    June 18th, 2010 @ 4:50 AM

    I like the idea of building around the young guns,and call it rebuilding not retooling.I agree I like Bosh ,but to sign him at the expense of everybody else,I dont agree with.Kevi Mchale’s comments regarding max KG and how it tied the Wolves hands for years …
    One comment I do disagree with is your comment regarding Bynumnot neede..I think that had a lot to do with Perkins not playing.If a sign and trade is the road we must take,we can do worse than Bynum.

  3. stretch
    June 18th, 2010 @ 6:24 AM

    I think they would be well served to try to keep Bosh but can do it while building a better team for the future. They can keep DeRozan (although I’m not sold on him) Weems, Johnson, their draft pick this year, and through trades of players names I’ve heard come up (T. Young, Collison, Okafor etc.) maybe increase their talent base and build for the future with youth.

    I don’t think with or without Bosh however, they should preclude themselves from adding veterans here and there. A few solid vets are good to help younger players develop the right way. A J. Posey or T. Prince would be fine for me on a team with a lot of youngsters. I also think Bosh would be happy coming back to a team with a good mix of young players and vets that are more definsively minded then the roster last year.

  4. max
    June 18th, 2010 @ 7:29 AM

    “You can’t have a number one option that can’t create his own shot, either off the dribble, in the post or moving without the ball”

    So I suppose that Dirk is not a number one option on his team?

  5. Tim W.
    June 18th, 2010 @ 8:21 AM

    Thanks for your replies.

    d279,

    One thing that Kevin McHale also said was that if Garnett had been signed for todays max, he would have been able to surround him with the right talent. Bosh signing for the max isn’t going to hamstring the Raptors. Not signing him might do more damage.

    You might be right about Bynum, but I think they’d still rather have Bosh. What they also need, though, is a good backup big. Maybe Pryzbilla?

    Stretch,

    I’m not averse to getting a veteran or two to help stabilize the lockerroom, but I think it’s important that the young players get minutes to develop. A guy like Prince needs too many minutes and I’ve heard things about him that doesn’t thrill me.

    Max,

    Dirk can create his own shot , so I do think Dirk can be a number 1 option.

  6. khandor
    June 18th, 2010 @ 9:52 AM

    Tim,

    re: Max comparing Bargnani to Nowitzki

    When will they ever learn?

    1. Nowitzki’s individual game in the Low-post simply puts Bargani’s to shame.

    2. Nowitzki operating from the elbow is, quite literally, light years ahead of Bargnani’s.

    I give you considerable credit for refraining from a rant when individuals such as this try to suggest that the Howitzer fits properly into a smilar category as Bargnani, when it comes to accurately assessing the quality of a player’s worth as a legitimate offensive weapon in the NBA.

    [PLEASE NOTE: We won't even bother getting to a discussion about the distinctions between these two players from a defensive and rebounding perspective, as "franchise" keys.]

  7. Raptors Digest
    June 18th, 2010 @ 10:19 AM

    Good read….especially accentuating the potential conundrum Bryan Colangelo is facing with his draft decision

  8. Tim W.
    June 18th, 2010 @ 11:02 AM

    khandor,

    I figure after all this time, there’s no point in spending a long time listing why Bargnani is nothing like Dirk. If they haven’t learned by now, they never will.

    RD,

    Thanks. I don’t envy Colangelo right now. No matter what he does, you will be able to criticize him. I’m hoping he pulls some rabbits out of his hat, though. Even when you disagree with his moves, he does impress with being able to get things done.

  9. jason
    June 18th, 2010 @ 4:21 PM

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIutzvMLuOc

  10. J
    June 18th, 2010 @ 7:44 PM

    A big problem with team building is deciding whether to base a team off a singular concept (and ridding the team of every piece that doesn’t fit), or picking a concept that suits the players already on the team. The former is difficult because of scarcity (you may want a certain player, but you may not be able to acquire him), and the latter, if we assume that there definitely exists a concept that is above all others (Celtics defense vs Suns offense), might result in a competitive team, but not necessarily a championship caliber team.

    Unfortunately, the Turkoglu signing fit neither of these. There certainly is no concept that a championship team must be centered around a point forward, and it’s arguable that Turkoglu was a fit even in foresight (rather than hindsight), considering the team already had Calderon. Say what you will about Calderon (I do know your thoughts on Calderon somewhat mirror mine), but Turkoglu’s addition majorly diminished Calderon’s worth to the team.

    Also on this point, it’s ironic that Calderon + Solomon/Ukic made us realize we needed another floor general for 16-18 minutes a game, but now Calderon + Jack + Turkoglu has us thinking Jack + Banks is sufficient. If you ask me, Jack + Banks will just make us want a real floor general again. Jack has good qualities, but I’ve seen him far too often crumple to pressure in late game situations and give the ball away. The things he does better than Calderon will not make up for his deficiencies, and if or as soon as Calderon is gone, Raps fans *will* turn on Jack, just as they turned on Calderon and T.J. Ford before him.

    I fully agree that BC does not have an enviable task. This is not a situation that has an obvious light shining at the end of the tunnel. Clearing the books of Bosh, Turkoglu and Calderon is not the answer, unless BC manages major steals in each trade. Turkoglu will likely bring back another team’s problem, as will Calderon. Rather than paying Bosh the max, which like you said isn’t very much (especially considering he’s earning almost 16 mil this year), we will likely be near or over the cap with a much inferior group of talent, and with no *realistic* way to add back Bosh’s level of talent except by tanking hard and drafting high. We might be the Thunder five years down the road, or we might be the Hawks of the earlier part of the last decade.

    The best solution, though it is out of our hands now, is to keep Bosh and find the complementary pieces that enable him to lead the franchise. Using the house analogy (and also to show why it’s silly), if Bosh is a wall, then you can’t attract other walls other you already have some good walls. Not every team has the luxury of drafting a LBJ/Wade/Howard/Durant/Paul/Bryant/Duncan/Garnett for their foundation. It should be obvious considering there are only the eight of them since the 1995 NBA draft. That’s 15 years times ~30 teams drafting, so 1.78% chance each year of drafting a real foundation (less even if you take out Howard, Durant and Paul, none of which have actually won the title), and as we have seen, even foundation players lose when not surrounded by enough walls.

  11. anonymoo
    June 19th, 2010 @ 9:06 AM

    About the TWolves, McHale wasn’t so much tied down by the Garnett contract but by the problems brought on by Joe Smith’s. Perhaps once Bosh is signed, he starts to think more about playing to win instead of playing for a lucrative contract. It would be nice if he could think to mentor a promising draft pick, like Robinson was to Duncan. It may be the only way the Raptors successfully rebuild (as well as finding a gem in the rough like Tony Parker). With young guns and a newly signed Bosh maybe then Triano can do what he’s supposed to do instead of having to deal with unhappy veterans.

  12. Tim W.
    June 19th, 2010 @ 12:42 PM

    Jason,

    That’s a great highlight, unfortunately that’s not even a semi-consistent part of Bargnani’s game. And if you notice, the play was created for him. His defender was scrambling and had to run back out at him, then he didn’t meet one defender until he actually got to the basket. That play actually doesn’t even contradict anything I’ve said.

    J,

    Excellent points, as usual. As for what to do with TUrkoglu and Calderon, I’m posting something TUesday that talks about that. As a preview, I think the Raptors should deal Turkoglu, but not Calderon.

    anonymoo,

    Thanks for your comment. I think Minnesota’s problems were caused by Garnett’s salary, the Joe Smith situation and McHale’s bad GMing. It was like a perfect storm of stupidity.

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