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Whispering in Colangelo’s Ear (Draft)
Posted on | June 21, 2010 | 4 Comments
So after my post about what strategy I feel Colangelo should have going into the offseason, I thought I would get into a little more detail, beginning with the draft.
I find this draft a little strange. There are only 3 players I really like, Wall, Turner and Favors and while there are others that have potential, there are very few players I would regret passing up. There’s talk of this draft being deep, but I don’t think it’s deep as much as there’s little disparity between 5 and 20. That’s not to say, however, that those 15 players are lottery material. Quite honestly, in a better year, I don’t think any of those player would be lottery picks. I wouldn’t be completely surprised if only a few players end up being any good, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if most of them find success. It’s a crap shoot in every sense of the word.
That said, I wouldn’t be heartbroken if Colangelo ends up trading the pick to improve the team (for a young player, mind you). Ultimately, I would like to see Colangelo trade up. There have been rumours that Philadelphia would be willing to trade the pick if Brand is included. Their recent trade, however, makes me think that this rumour has no basis in fact. If the 76ers were so intent on saving money, what’s the logic in trading away their biggest expiring contract for longer contracts? Personally, I thought it would have been a stupid move on Philly’s part, anyway.
I think there are other options if the Raptors want to move up, though. I think they could use Bargnani as a trading piece to get either the Timberwolves or Warriors picks. I’ve read that the TImberwolves would like to pair Al Jefferson with a perimeter center so Jefferson can work down low. Obviously that describes Bargnani. The T-Wolves have loads of cap space they probably won’t be able to use, so could simply absorb all of Bargnani’s contract or send back someone like Ryan Gomez.
If Greg Monroe isn’t available at 6, I think the Warriors will be open to trading their pick and Bargnani is the type of player they like. I’m not a fan of Corey Maggette, but if the Warriors would trade Radmanovic, Turiaf and their 6th pick for Bargnani, I might be tempted. If they threw in Brandan Wright, they might have a deal.
Still, there are a couple of better options for Bargnani I will get into tomorrow.
So, without being able to move up, getting at least another lower first rounder, as has been rumoured, is something I’m all in favour of. I think the Raptors should target a pick from 15-20 and if they could grab another one in the 20-25 range, they should have a good chance at finding some decent talent. Coincidentally, the Timberwolves are the best trading partner, since they own the 16th and 23rd picks. If you’re thinking that Colangelo should be on the phone to the TImberwolves right now, you’re not the only one.
The Grizzlies picks also are apparently available but at 25 and 28, I think there won’t be much left by that time. The way I see it, unless someone falls (which is always a good possibility) there won’t be much available in the mid to late 20s. You might as well save money (and assets) and try and grab a second round pick.
So the Raptors are in the enviable position of being able to choose any position. Of course the reason for that is that no position is locked up, so that’s probably not a good thing. The position they probably have the least need for is SG, but even then, if the best player is a SG, they’re not going to pass him up. About the only thing they should be focused on going into the draft, other than getting the best player available, is making sure that the player plays defense. I don’t think that even needs explaining.
13th pick
The Raptors brass may have their own picks, but here are the players I would pick, in order, in the 13th spot.
ED DAVIS PF North Carolina
He probably won’t be available, but if he slips, the Raptors shouldn’t hesitate. He’s the kind of guy that coaches will love because he’s smart, a hard worker but also athletic. He’s the type of player that will probably end up being on a Championship team before his career winds down, even if he’s not the one leading it. On the downside, he’s far more likely to be a very good role player than a star.
PAUL GEORGE SF Fresno State
More likely to be available and has more star potential, but has more potential to be a bust than Davis. Still, I think he’s going to end up being one of the top 10 players in the draft, which is as much as you can ask for with the 13th pick. He’s got the ability to be a 20 ppg scorer and excellent defender, but needs to learn the difference between a good shot and a bad one a little better. He’s definitely got the all around skills to become an All-Star, if he stays focused and works hard. Best of all, he’d be a great fit beside DeRozan on the wing.
COLE ALDRICH C Kansas
A true center. Not a lot of upside, but he’s also got very little bust potential. At the least, he’ll be able to anchor your defense inside with his shotblocking and rebounding. You probably won’t end up getting a lot of points from him, and he’s not athletic enough to get up and down the court at a high rate of speed or defend much on the perimeter, but he’s basically everything the Raptors were lacking last season, so he’d be a good pick.
XAVIER HENRY SG Kansas
He’s a shooting guard, but if the above players are gone, he’s the best player available. Probably won’t become a star, but he’s a good shooter who plays both ends of the court. He’d also be a good compliment to DeRozan, but that would require DeRozan moving to SF. AT one point as a high school senior, he was the top rated player, so he’s obviously got skills.
ERIC BLEDSOE PG Kentucky
He’d be a reach at 13, but if none of the above players are available, he’d be the best player available, so why not take him. There’s been a lot of discussion about whether the Raptors should take Bledsoe or Avery Bradley, but to me Bledsoe is the clear winner. He plays defense almost as well as Bradley, is just as quick but has true PG skills, which Bradley lacks. Him playing out of position at Kentucky might be a blessing in disguise for the Raptors, if they draft him, because he’d likely go a lot higher if he had played his true position last season.
One of those players should be available at 13, and if one of their names is not called, I’ll be disappointed. They lucked out last season when DeRozan, the player they (and I) coveted dropped in their laps. This draft is much more unpredictable, and who really knows who will be available at 13. Still, any one of those five players should give the Raptors another good young piece for the future.
Lower First Round Pick(s)
If the Raptors are able to secure, at least, one more first round pick, it will no doubt be a lower pick. Obviously, if any of the above players are available, they should take him (Bledsoe might be). Others who I think the Raptors should look at include the following…
DANIEL ORTON C Kentucky
Orton is a bit of a mystery because he played backup to two of the best big men in the country, didn’t get a whole lot of minutes, and those minutes he did get he wasn’t asked to do much. Still, he’s a physically gifted big man who might have ended up as a top 5 pick if he stayed at Kentucky for one more season. He should be able to make an impact on the boards and on the defensive end immediately, but will take time to find an offense. And if anyone cares, apprently DeRozan would ike to see him as a Raptor.
DAMION JAMES SF Texas
Like the rest of the players I’m looking at with the lower pick, it’s James’ physical gifts that stand out more than his actual skills. Still, James is a tough, athletic SF who should be able to defend from day 1, a rarity in the NBA, and rebound the ball at a high rate. James is a player that could be taken in the mid-teens, or the late twenties, so it’s hard to figure out where you’d need to pick to try and draft him. He’ll probably never be an All-Star, but a team could certainly do a lot worse than having a player like James as their starting SF.
SOLOMON ALABI C Florida State
A more raw version of Hasheem Thabeet, if you can believe it. He’s got two main traits that make him an attractive prospect. A 7′5 wingspan as well as a personality that is apparently infectious, in a good way. On Raptors Republic, I listen to a podcast with David Thorpe, who talked about how guys like Alabi can actually raise the level of play on the team. That alone makes him an intriguing prospect.
KEVIN SERAPHIN C International
He seem to have flown under the radar, especially in Toronto, but the Raptors are hopefully looking at Seraphin, a physically imposing power forward who brings toughness and explosiveness. Like the other big men above, he’s offensively raw, but should immediately help on the boards and on defense.
WILLIE WARREN PG/SG Oklahoma
Was a preseason favourite to be a top five pick, but struggled this year and his stock dropped. Still, he’s got the potential to be the steal of the draft, can play either the 1 or the 2 and has an ability to get to the basket that reminds me a little of Dwayne Wade. He didn’t do well as Oklahoma’s number one option, and might play better if surrounded by better talent. He’s had a few issues off the court that may scare off some teams, but he’s got the skills to be one of the better picks of the draft.
While the lower picks are obviously more of a gamble, there’s a half decent chance of ending up with a player that is really going to help your team. There have obviously been some big names that I have left out, including Avery Bradley and Hassan Whiteside. I’ll discuss them more on the day of the draft.
Tomorrow, I’ll get into what types of moves I feel the Raptors should be doing this offseason, which players they need to trade and which players they should keep.
4 Responses to “Whispering in Colangelo’s Ear (Draft)”
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June 22nd, 2010 @ 7:15 AM
Why do you like Derozan/think he’ll be good?
My guess is that he gets to the line, rebounds well for his position and has a good attitude?
Are there any other reasons you like him?
June 22nd, 2010 @ 7:18 AM
There are more than a few players in this draft #13-#30 that can make this franchise serious contenders within a few years and competitive this season, with the players we will be getting back after jettisoning (Turk, Bosh, Calderon, Banks, Evans, Bellinelli).
There is no need to waste assets moving up.
They need a second pick later in the draft to go with #13.
It would also be a big mistake to take a PG with #13 as there are no true PGs worthy of that high a pick in this years draft.
As for trading the pick, well thats just the way things seems to happen with MLSE.
Trade the future to make up for past mistakes, in a hurry.
Never works out.
Won’t this time either.
Slow and steady (drafting smartly and developing young talent) in spite of past missteps.
That’s how you build a successful franchise.
Catching lightning in a bottle like Boston did with Garnett and Allen will not happen here until he get a reputation as a winning franchise.
June 22nd, 2010 @ 10:25 AM
Tim,
George would be a terrific pick at No. 13.
However, if Toronto leaves any of Aminu [SF], or Babbitt [SF], or Hayward [SF], or Whiteside [C] on the table and selects one of the players who you’ve mentioned here, then, IMO, they will be making a SERIOUS blunder.
June 22nd, 2010 @ 1:11 PM
Statement,
Yes, for the reasons you mentioned, plus his athleticism and the fact that he’s apparently a gym rat. That’s always a good trait for a basketball player.
Earthjuice,
I really don’t think this draft is as deep as you think.
http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/67346/20100622/gms_see_2010_as_down_year_for_draft/
Fans always seem to overestimate the draft as it gets closer. I’ve seen it every year. It’s so rare to have players in the second half of the first round to make an impact, and if this draft isn’t deep, as I believe, it’s going to be that much harder.
Not sure why you think trading the pick would be the MLSE way. First of all, they’re not the ones who are making the decisions, and the Raptors certainly haven’t traded away more draft picks than any other organization over the year.
khandor,
George is the one I’m really hoping for. I really doubt Aminu drops, which is why I didn’t mention him, but I’m not big fans of Babbit, Hayward or Whiteside at all, which I’ll get into on the day of the draft.
Thanks for your comments, guys.