The Highest Rate of Return (Part 2)

Posted on June 3, 2010 | 2 Comments

Last week, I posted the first part. Here’s the continuation of the top ten team I would choose to have Bosh end up this summer and why.

5. Lakers

I know, I know. How can I honestly put the Lakers above Chicago, when all the Lakers have to offer is an injury riddled Andrew Bynum? Well, there are three reasons for that. The first is that the Lakers play out West, and not in the same conference at the Raptors. No matter what the package may be, the Raptors mostly likely would rather send Bosh to a team they don’t have to play more than twice a year if for no other reason than to save the fans their voices. With Vince in the same conference and Turkolgu likely going somewhere else, having Bosh only come to Toronto once a year means less booing for Raptor fans.

The second reason the Lakers are above the Bulls is that if Bosh ends up going to the Bulls, they will be a very good team for probably the next ten years. The Lakers will only be dominant as long as Kobe is at the top of his game, which is probably only for another few years. Let’s face it, if Bosh leaves, the likelihood of the Raptors contending in the next few years are slim to none. The Lakers getting Bosh would probably not impact the future of the Raptors in the least.

The final reason the Lakers option is better than the Bulls is that despite the gamble it would be to take Bynum and his history of injuries, he’s got, by far, the most upside of any player the Raptors could realistically hope to get in a sign and trade for Bosh. If Bosh leaves, the Raptors are pretty much in rebuild mode. They can certainly afford a big gamble in Bynum because if he gets healthy, he could become the Raptors franchise center they’ve never had. Teams so rarely get the chance to grab a 22 year old center of (healthy) Bynum’s calibre. Even if he doesn’t get healthy, he’s only got two more guaranteed years on his contract.

4. Houston

Houston was also apparently not on Bosh’s short list, but they seem to want him and will no doubt try and court him. Many Raptor fans hope they win out because they have some of the best pieces to offer the Raptors in return. And since Houston is over the cap, the Rocket have to send back. Players that could be traded to Toronto include Shane Battier, Trevor Ariza, Jordan Hill, Kyle Lowry, Jared Jeffries and Chase Budinger. Most likely players like Aaron Brooks, Yao Ming and even Kevin Martin would be off limits.

Personally, I’d love to see a package of young players and short contracts like Ariza, Jeffries, Hill and Lowry.  Every single one of those players is above average defensively and apart from Jeffries, is under 25 (and Jeffries is only 28, himself). There’s probably not an All Star among them, but every one of them is talented and is exactly what the Raptors need. Also, wouldn’t it be funny to get Ariza for less money than they offered him last summer to come to Toronto?

The downside of the deal, of course, is that it’s extremely unlikely that the Raptors would get anything but role players from Houston.

3. Oklahoma City

Oklahoma City is an unlikely destination, despite it being mentioned quite a bit a few weeks ago. Yes, they are an extremely talented team with possibly the brightest future in the league, but they’re a small market and offer little for Bosh outside of the actual team. If you could have a choice to work in New York, Miami, Chicago, Toronto or Oklahoma City, which would you choose?

Of course, Oklahoma can’t sign Bosh outright, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have cap room. They also have a few nice young players to offer Toronto. Jeff Green is the most likely player to come back Toronto’s way and on the surface, that may seem like a bad fit for the Raptors. As the starting PF for the Thunder, Green averaged a paltry 6 rpg and was one of the worst defenders at that position. That’s enough to scare off any Raptor fan. Of course, what the stats don’t tell you is that Jeff Green is not a PF. He just plays one for the Thunder. At SF, his natural position, he’s actually a half decent rebounder and is much, much better suited to guard other SFs out on the perimeter than to bang with PFs in the post. In fact, Green is a very good defender at SF. He’s stronger than most and has the footspeed to stay with them. He would be a great replacement for Turkoglu, should he be traded, and has the potential to be a borderline All-Star.

A player which Raptor fans would love to be able to get is Serge Ibaka, the 6’10, 20 year old rookie from the Congo. He’s a rebounding and shot blocking machine that is exactly what the Raptors need. He’s explosive, a hard worker and incredibly athletic. If the Raptors could somehow get Green and Ibaka from Oklahoma City for Bosh, the Raptors would have a bright future. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening. If the Thunder somehow get Bosh to agree to want to go there, I think they are more likely to send back Green and a trade exception, which is still not a bad deal.

2. San Antonio

San Antonio is not a talked about destination for Bosh. They have no cap room, aren’t a big market team and Bosh isn’t exactly the defensive minded big man that generally plays for the Spurs. Of course, with the Spurs in need of roster changes after getting swept by Phoenix, they might see Bosh as exactly what they need: An eventual replacement for Duncan, who is on his last legs, as the franchise big man and a way to get younger.

The Spurs don’t have a whole lot to offer, but the most likely offer would be Tony Parker and DuJuan Blair. Before this season, when he struggled with injuries, Parker was a top 20 player in the league and a former NBA Finals MVP. Blair would be an immediate starter at PF for the Raptors, and is only 21 years old. He’ll never be the scorer that Bosh is, but few fans will miss Bosh much if Blair is his replacement.

Now, one complaint I’ve heard about getting Parker is that he could be gone in a year. I’ve never understood this type of argument. Nearly every player is temporary. Did anyone complain about Amir Johnson having only one year left on his contract when he came to the Raptors? Besides, if the Raptors do well, Parker, a Frenchman, should have no reason to want to leave Toronto, and if the team struggles, they could simply trade him for young talent.

If the Raptors could get two above average starters for Bosh, I think they’d be doing very well.

1. Toronto

Okay, a little bit of a cheat, but if I could choose for Bosh to go anywhere, it would be to return to the Raptors. Barring some unforeseen bidding war among potential teams, the Raptors are simply not going to get equal value for Bosh in a sign and trade. Sure, Bosh has not been able to lead the Raptors to any post season success in his seven years, but keeping the best player you have is always preferable to trading him for .60¢ on the dollar.

I think an even better reason for wanting to keep him, however, is to hear how all those American sportswriters would backtrack on their belief that Bosh would never choose to re-sign with the NBA’s only Canadian team. That would be sweet.

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Which team would you want Bosh to end up with this summer?

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Comments

2 Responses to “The Highest Rate of Return (Part 2)”

  2. J
    June 5th, 2010 @ 1:09 PM

    Agree totally. Thanks for being pretty much the only other person to recognize that sending Bosh to Miami/Chicago/New York/New Jersey means we might as well enter rebuilding mode for as long as Wade and Bosh or LBJ and Bosh stay together.

    If not for Bynum’s injury issues, he would definitely be the best rate of return. Green would be interesting but an obvious downgrade, while Parker would at least allow the team to rebuild in a different image. Even if the packages were close on paper, the potential dynasty we would create would offset it all. The likes of Taj Gibson/James Johnson/etc. are not worth stacking a conference opponent over!

    Hopefully, Bosh will be interested in playing for the Lakers or Spurs (I highly doubt it re: OkC); at least then, we only have to worry about his team for as long as Kobe or Duncan are still in their “prime”.

  3. Tim W.
    June 6th, 2010 @ 1:09 AM

    J,

    I seem to agree with a lot of your comments, so it’s not surprising that you agree with most of my post. Ya, two of the guys teaming up would make it tough to compete with, but two of them doing it in Chicago, or the three of them teaming up, would be disastrous for the rest of the league. If you’re Colangelo, how much do you want to help Bosh do that?

    This summer will certainly be interesting.

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