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Is This Season Salvageable?
Posted on | March 31, 2010 | No Comments
I haven’t posted much in the last couple of months. It’s been a combination of me simply being too busy and also not really having much to say. I had actually started a post about what makes a good GM, but after recent happenings, I decided to put it off.
Now, I’ve tried to remain fairly even keeled on this blog, and scolded Raptor fans time and time again for overreacting, which they tend to do. Just before the All-Star break, I looked back at the predictions I made at the beginning of the season. For the most part, they were looking very good. At that time, the Raptors were solidly in the 5th seed in the East, a few people outside of the Canada were actually saying there was a possibility that Bosh was going to re-sign with the Raptors, and their defense, while never great, was looking, for the most part, half decent.
What a difference a month and a half makes.
At this point, getting anything higher than the 8th seed seems unlikely, and the only thing preventing the Raptors from completely falling out of the playoff race is that the Bulls are losing just as much as the Raptors are. It’s like watching two paraplegics race for the finish line without wheelchairs.
Now, there have been quite a few who have predicting gloom and doom for the Raptors from the beginning. Some have even said that nothing has changed, that they just don’t have the same soft schedule. Apparently they haven’t watched the Raptors much this season. Despite what some claim, the descent we have seen was not inevitable. It’s not just a tougher schedule that are doing them in. Wins against the Magic, Mavericks, Spurs and Lakers during their good run debunk this theory. Sure, they’ve never been a very good road team (their recent win against Charlotte, notwithstanding), but even during their horrid play in November, they never had trouble scoring, even on the road. In March, they failed to score 100 points seven times. That’s more than November and more than both January and February put together. Obviously this isn’t simply a matter of their defense failing.
The question, apart from why, is what happened?
Things were going well for the Raptors even after the All-Star break. The fall, however can be traced back to February 17th in a game against Memphis. Bosh came down awkwardly on a play late in the game, injuring his ankle. He was having a good game, too. Including that game, Bosh had been averaging 28 ppg, 12.4 rpg and even 3.8 apg.
On many teams, when the star player goes down, it gives a chance for the secondary players to shine, which can be a benefit to the team down the stretch. Unfortunately, this didn’t happen with the Raptors. No one stepped up, and in fact, a couple of players seemed to get worse. Bargnani defenders always claimed that he would play inside more and rebound more without Bosh. Not surprisingly, this proved not to be true. Bargani suffered when the defenses were able to focus their attention on him. As I’ve said in previous posts, a high percentage of Bargnani’s shots are assisted, which tells you a little about his ability to create his own shot. While Bargnani is a gifted shooter, he has very few one on one moves. Outside of his pumpfake and drive, there’s little in Bargnani’s arsenal that would allow him to get a good look at the basket without a lot of help from teammates. He’s still not comfortable enough in the post to be able to get points there on a regular basis, and has an annoying habit of fading away on shots even when being covered by much shorter defenders. And his rebounding didn’t improve at all without Bosh. The blame cannot be laid only by Bargnani’s feet though.
When Turkoglu signed with the Raptors, the hope was that he would make up for his defense and rebounding woes with great playing making and end-of-game play. While he has never lived up to his big contract, when the Raptors were winning it was easier to overlook because he was helping them win, even if he wasn’t playing like he was expected (or at least hoped). Without Bosh, he needed to step up. It did look like he might turn the corner after Bosh went down, and even had his second highest point output during this time, but then started playing poorly again and then got hurt himself. Not that it mattered, the team might have played better in his absence. More on him in a moment.
Bosh returning didn’t help. The team didn’t return to it’s winning ways and Bosh didn’t seem like the same player. In the 20 games before his injury, Bosh only failed to reach double digits in rebounding 5 times. In the 12 games since he returned, he’s already missed double digits 6 times. And his scoring is down considerably. More importantly, though, he doesn’t seem to have the passion he had before the injury.
The team played so poorly, that Triano re-inserted Calderon into the starting lineup, realizing that Calderon often had the second unit playing better than the first. It didn’t help.
And while the defense had resorted to November-like numbers, the offense often struggled just as much. The team would go through long droughts at the worst time. Things like that simply weren’t supposed to happen with this team. Defensive problems were expected, as were rebounding deficiencies, but this is one of the potent offenses in the league.
This problem seemed to come to a head in close games against Denver and Miami which saw them score 15 and 17 points respectively in the fourth quarter, giving up seemingly comfortable leads. Incidentally, Turkoglu played in neither of them. The first game, Turkoglu was sick, and the second game, he sat on the bench in uniform as Triano publicly disciplined him for apparently going out to a club the same night he was too sick to play.
In the game against Charlotte, Triano trotted out a very different starting five that played during the Raptors winning ways in January. Bargnani, Bosh, Weems, Wright and Calderon would present a less passive and more defensive minded starting unit. They still struggled to score in the first quarter against Charlotte, but they also stopped Charlotte from doing much of it, allowing Charlotte to score only 18 points, the least they allowed a team to score in the first quarter since December. They still let Charlotte score more than 100 points for the game, but with Triano seemingly content with this starting unit from here on in, it’s a good bet this team will be a little more focused on defense than it was before.
The question is, whether or not it matters.
Yes, obviously the Raptors need to play well for the remainder of the season to keep their playoff berth, but the issue goes much deeper than that. Even if the Raptors win 6 of their remaining 9 games, which is unlikely, the chance of catching Charlotte for the 7th spot is practically non-existent. So finishing a game above .500, the 8th seed, and a first round match-up with Cleveland, is what seems to await Toronto. And this is the best case scenario. Even the most optimistic Raptor fan and writer now sees little chance of Bosh re-signing this summer. Far too much has happened since the All-Star break. This team has proven far too fragile and far too soft for Bosh not to believe he can do better elsewhere, whether it is true or not.
So if the Raptors lose Bosh, is a first round drubbing against Cleveland really going to help the team? Especially if this means losing their first round pick to Miami, which making the playoffs would guarantee? Yes, the Raptors could get back a player or two, or perhaps a draft pick, in a sign and trade, but you can probably count on one hand the number of times a sign and trade has worked out well for the team doing the signing and trading. Ironically, the Raptors signing and trading Delfino last summer seems to have worked out well for the Raptors (getting Weems and Johnson), but nothing beyond equal value would really help the Raptors in a sign and trade for Bosh, and that’s not going to happen. Not with a player of Bosh’s calibre. If the Raptors are a .500 team WITH Bosh, how good do you think they’d be if they, for example, got David Lee in return. Yes, Lee would give the Raptors a poor man’s Bosh a a much lower price, but a poor man’s Bosh is not going to improve the team. Even with an apparently much better coach, the Knicks are sitting at 10 fewer wins with Lee as their best player.
The problem with the Raptors, as evidenced by their collapse when Bosh was injured, is they have absolutely no one who can step into the lead role. Not anyone who will give the Raptors any chance of sniffing the playoffs again. I’ve argued with several readers on this site about whether or not this team is a failure. And that was before their collapse. The one problem with their arguments is that they were so short-sighted. These impatient fans wanted to see results NOW, however unrealistic that was. They tried to convince me that this team would never be a contender, which I never disagreed with. It’s just that I felt that Colangelo had the pieces and ability to make the moves that would allow the team to eventually become a contender. The main component to the Raptors ability to becoming a contender was that Bosh re-sign. And up until five weeks ago, that looked likely.
You see, it’s a lot easier to get good return on players from a good team than players on a bad team. If the Raptors had finished well, and even won a few playoff games, teams wouldn’t be lowballing him for trade offers. A team that is obviously desperately in need of new players are not going to find many good deals out there. The last five weeks has made Colangelo’s job this summer extremely tough.
I asked whether it’s worth it, if Bosh leaves, to end the season in the playoffs, losing the first round pick, or finishing in the lottery, and keeping the pick. There are a few problems with this. The first is that we simply still don’t know what Bosh’s plans are. It’s now likely he’ll leave, but it’s not a certainty. More importantly, though, is that if the Raptors finish out of the playoffs, the only real advantage would be if they finish in the top 3 in the draft lottery. This years draft looks even weaker than last years. No one the Raptors could get in the 11th spot (which is the lowest pick they could get if they don’t get one of the top 3) would likely have any impact whatsoever on the Raptors, at least not in the next year or two. Is it worth missing the playoffs when you’ll have less than a 1% chance of moving up?
If the Raptors do make the playoffs, there is always a chance that they play well, or at least some individual players play well. It’s at least higher than them moving up in the lottery. This, along with the benefit of the younger players getting some playoff experience, is reason enough to hope they actually beat the Bulls in the slow foot race to the post season.
Hey, it gives you something to cheer for!
Sooooo Close!
Posted on | March 10, 2010 | 1 Comment
THAT’S the Raptors team that went 25-11 until their recent troubles. No, it wasn’t a win, but if it wasn’t for some of the worst officiating I’ve seen in recent memory, I think the Raptors come out victorious in that one.
If Bosh were a Laker, he'd be going to the line now...
Just a quick comment on the refs. I never complain about bad calls or get on the bandwagon that claim that refs favour other teams, but I have never, EVER been so frustrated watching what were offensively bad calls, all in favour of the Lakers. At first, Gasol seemed to be getting foul calls the moment any Raptor made contact on defense, and then Turkoglu got several phantom calls. Then the second half, where I actually had to turn the channel out of frustration. The Lakers were getting EVERY call, and the Raptors weren’t getting similar ones on the other end. The “foul” that Kobe drew after he missed the layup was laughable. Well, it would have been if you were a Laker fan. Of course, the Raptor players took about 6 jumpshots in a row after that, so it’s pretty hard to get a makeup call when you do that, but it should never have been called in the first place.
Okay, rant over.
As for the game, the Lakers actually played well, but the Raptors showed why they are one of the better teams in the East. They scored when they needed to, played tough defense when they needed to, and if they continue to play like they did tonight, they very well could win their next three road games.
What is it about Bargnani that whenever I go on a little bit of a rant about him, he has a good game. It’s not just me writing about him, though, which makes me think he reads the criticism levelled against him. If he can keep up this pace the rest of the season, then I will not mention benching or trading him again for the rest of the season. I promise.
While Bargnani played fairly well, although seemed to disappear in the fourth, and Bosh deserves credit for hitting that HUGE three to tie it, the game belonged to Jarrett Jack. He’s been playing very well lately, and I notice I don’t hear those same complaints about teaming him with Calderon at the end of games anymore. When the criticism was at it’s loudest, I defended Triano’s decision to play both Jack and Calderon together because I felt it would pay off later in the season. And we’re starting to see it. Jack and Calderon are the Raptors two best guards and two best ball handlers. It makes sense for them to be on the court together when it matters.
AROUND THE NBA
It never ceases to amaze me how stupid and ungrateful some NBA players are. Case in point (this time)? Allen Iverson and Rafer Alston. I would be absolutely shocked if either player ever plays in the league again. Rafer abandons the Miami after he was moved to the bench. This is a guy who was waived by New Jersey earlier this season. The guy has never been the most reliable guy, but skipping out on your team and only texting them is a bad way to end your career.
And Iverson has probably burned his last bridge. Philadephia was criticized for signing Iverson after he skipped out on Memphis after a few games, but now he seems to have abandoned them, too. At first, the story of dealing with a sick daughter was understandable and commendable. As a father myself, I can understand dropping everything when your child is in need. But then for the wife to file for divorce during that time made you wonder. Now there are stories about drinking and gambling problems.
We should have a poll for the next player who’s going to prematurely shoot his own career in the foot. Actually, I think I will…
Loading ...UHHHH, DUHHHH!
Speaking of stupid, the Clippers and Mike Dunleavy have apparently “severed ties” after it became clear the team had not made “sufficient progress during Dunleavy’s seven-year tenure” .
It took you seven years to figure that out?????
It almost makes you feel sorry for Elgin Baylor, who Dunleavy apparently pushed out the door so he could run the franchise. I say `almost’ because it’s not like Baylor did any better job than Dunleavy.
Now if only Donald Sterling and the Clippers would “severe ties”, the Clippers might one day be a half decent team.
HARD CHARGING BUCKS
The Bucks are now solidly in the 5th seed in the East and don’t look to be letting up. Their big win against the Celtics tonight must have been a confidence booster. What seems to have turned their season around was the trade for John Salmons. It’s the second year in a row Salmons was traded to a team that then went on a bit of a tear. Will the Bucks have the same impact the Bulls did in the playoffs last season?
Just to make things interesting, the Bucks play both Atlanta and Boston twice each in the next month. One of them will likely be their playoff opponent. I’d circle those games as ones to watch.
And before Raptor fans start bemoaning the fact that the Raptors have dropped to the 6th seed, realize that, at this point, that would mean the Raptors would face the Celtics instead of the Hawks. Yes, the Celtics are a more veteran team, but I can’t be the only Raptor fan who would rather the Raptors not face the Hawks in the playoffs.
Who Should Start For The Raptors?
Posted on | March 9, 2010 | 19 Comments
[Bloggers Note: Yes, I said I would do a post trade deadline analysis, but I got busy and now I just don't want to. Sue me.]
There’s been a lot of discussion about whether DeRozan should be replaced in the starting lineup, which might stop the Raptors from digging themselves in a hole early in games, as they have been. With the way the Raptors have been playing all year, however. the question that needs to be asked is whether this team is building around the wrong players.
Now, I’ve never been a big fan of +/- stats, or any stats in particular, when gauging a player’s worth to a team. I think it ignores factors that simply aren’t logged in the box score, such as defense, hustle and veteran savvy. Sometimes, however, it does give an interesting picture of what’s going on. Take for example, the stats on 82games.com. What previously was called the Roland Rating, but now seems to be called the Simple rating, is an average of a player’s +/- production and on/off court results. It’s not the greatest indicator, but it’s half decent barometer for how much a player is helping his team win.
Now, take a look at the Raptor’s next opponent, the Lakers. The top five players are the five best players, Kobe, Gasol, Odom, Artest and Bynum. These are the players that play the bulk of the minutes for the Lakers. Boston’s top five players are their starters: Garnett, Pierce, Rondo, Allen and Perkins. Same goes for Atlanta. It’s not like that for every team, but there’s enough of a pattern for me to want to take a closer look at the Raptors roster.
As most Raptor fans know, the Raptor starters are Bosh, Bargnani, Turkoglu, DeRozan and Jack.
The top five Raptors according to 82games.com’s Simple/Roland Rating? Bosh, Evans, Belinelli, Johnson and Calderon.
Things get even more interesting when you look at the Individual Player Floor Time Stats, the top five being Johnson, Wright, Bosh, Belinelli and Calderon.
Now, I don’t pretend to know what all these statistics mean, or whether or not they actually mean anything what-so-ever, but when you look at all the players, you realize two things. The first is that all, but one, are at least average defensively. The second thing you notice is that Bargnani, Turkoglu, Jack and DeRozan are not listed.
As readers of this blog know, I’ve often been critical of Bargnani. I HATE the fact that he can’t rebound the ball for his size, and while I applauded him for his improved defense a little while ago, he seems to have taken a couple of steps back in that category lately. In fact, he’s taken a couple of steps back in just about EVERY category lately. In the last five games, Bargnani is averaging 14.4 ppg, 4 rpg and 0.6 bpg. Those that said that Bargnani would rebound more and score more inside without Bosh have been silenced. Bargnani actually played worse, and less inside, without Bosh. I don’t know if any player is more responsible for the current slump the Raptors find themselves in than Bargnani. When he plays good defense and scores, the Raptors usually win. Unfortunately, after nearly four full years, it’s becoming fairly clear that Bargnani can never be a player you can count on. He needs to score to be effective, but isn’t a consistent enough scorer to be a first or second option on a contender, and doesn’t do anything else well enough to warrant heavy minutes if he’s NOT scoring 15+ a game.
Turkoglu has at least shown that he can be a starter on a contender. Unfortunately, that was only one season, and he’s currently not playing at that same level. If he can get back to that level, it’s obvious that Turkoglu could easily be a starter again for a contender. With his below average rebounding and weak defense, he would need a team with an above average defense and rebounding front line. This describes Bosh, but not Bargnani.
Jack is a peculiar case. He doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses that the other starters not mentioned do, and he’s actually one of the Raptors more complete players. He hasn’t been all that consistent, though, and with him in the starting lineup, the Raptors have often started games badly. He certainly doesn’t have the acumen for running an offense that Calderon has. And his defense is not where I thought it would be.
Now, I actually feel that DeRozan has done a half-decent job this season. I said at the beginning that if he had a season similar to Courtney Lee’s rookie season, then it would be a success. Well, in nearly every statistical category, including PER, DeRozan’s numbers are pretty similar to Lee’s. The two things that Lee was better at was Defense and 3 point shooting. Of course, Lee was 3 years older than DeRozan is, so that is a big factor. I never had a problem starting DeRozan, because he was playing well enough, and it was a good way of helping him grow. Earlier in the season, I argued against those who said he should be replaced in the starting lineup and I still believe I was right. Hell, their record since December 5th was pretty damn good, so I’d say it was a good choice. And while I think it was not alright to replace him then, I think now might be the time to. Two things have changed. The first is that he seems to have hit the rookie wall. The second, and most important, is that as the playoffs approach, wins become more important. Until now, DeRozan’s development outweighed the few wins his starting might have missed out on.
Now, changing the starting lineup now might not be the best idea, and I don’t know if the change would benefit the team this season (although it very well might). I do think, however, that who the Raptors starters are needs to be looked at further this summer. Either way, there are questions that come up when looking at which players help the team win more? Would Amir Johnson be a better frontcourt partner to Bosh than Bargnani?Should Calderon be moved back into the starting lineup? Is Belinelli, because of his all around game, a more fitting starter at the shooting guard until DeRozan develops more, or should Wright’s defense be taken more advantage of despite his brain freezes on offense?
Personally, if I was coaching the Raptors, and didn’t have to take into consideration contracts or team investments in certain players, against the Lakers, and for the rest of the season, I’d trot out a starting lineup of Bosh, Johnson, Turkoglu, Belinelli and Calderon. I’d give those players the bulk of the minutes, and generally finish the game with those players, as well.
I know that Belinelli has been incredibly inconsistent this season, but as readers of this blog know, I’m a fan of his and feel he’d be more consistent as a starter. His one game as a starter was his best of the season, and he strikes me as the type of player that excels when not looking over his shoulder. He’s also much better defensively than many give him credit for. In fact, I’d say that he’s the second best wing player on the defensive end, behind Wright.
Calderon has not been good defensively this year, but with Belinelli and Johnson in the starting lineup, the team defense would improve enough that I think he would do alright. Besides, his offense is just too good to have him come off the bench when the team has been struggling so much to start games.
While Johnson is not the scorer than Bargnani is, he so much better on the boards and defensively that I actually think he might be a better player than Bargnani, at least right now. Just looking at PER, which is flawed and doesn’t take into consideration defense, they are neck and neck. When you then include defense, I’d rather have Johnson on the floor than Bargnani.
Turkoglu has shown he can play on a contender with better statistics, and while you could put Wright in here, Turkoglu’s worth can not often be seen on the stat sheet. Unlike Bargnani, Turkglu is not a one note player. He makes players around him better, and that’s not something that can be overlooked.
Bosh, Johnson, Turkoglu, Belinelli and Calderon is a starting unit that is dangerous offensively and should be able to play good defense. Calderon, Belinelli and Turkoglu can all create, score from the outside get the ball to the big men inside. Bosh and Johnson can clean up the boards inside and defend the middle. I think the team would be much more consistent offensively and defensively.
Who would your starters be?
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