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Raptors @ Spurs Preview
Posted on | November 9, 2009 | No Comments
I’m not going to hide my bias, here. I love the Spurs. Not as much as the Raptors, who will always be closer to my heart by simply being the only Canadian NBA team, but I’ve been a fan of the Spurs for many years. A lot of that has to do with their franchise player, Tim Duncan, who I share a name with and a love of fundamental basketball. Sure, some call it boring, but true basketball fans enjoy watching basketball played at it’s best, and over the last 12 years, the Spurs have played some of the best basketball in the NBA. In fact, no team has a better record over the last 12 years and only the Lakers have won as many titles (4). Since Tim Duncan was drafted by the Spurs, 12 years ago, the Spurs have never missed the playoffs and, in fact, only missed going passed the first round twice. When Duncan missed the playoffs due to injury and last season, when Manu Ginobili missed the playoffs due to injury. Being a Spurs fan has it’s perks.
What makes the Spurs success even more amazing is the fact that, Duncan is the only player that was on each of those Championship team. It’s hard enough to build one Championship team, but two? Chicago did something similar, but with both Jordan and Pippen.
Some might say that this is not the same Spurs team. Duncan is getting older and hasn’t averaged 20 points in two seasons, a far cry when he was winning MVP’s, the last one in 2003. He’s obviously declined. Or has he?
Well, Duncan is obviously not the player he was. He’s not as quick and not as dominant, but the funny thing about Duncan, is that his per 36 minutes stats have been remarkably consistent from his rookie season. It’s actually eery. Mr Consistency he truly is. He averaged 19.4 ppg, 11 rpg and 2.3 bpg his rookie season, 21.3 ppg, 11.8 rpg ans 2.7 bpg when the Spurs won their second title and he won his second MVP award, and 20.7 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 1.8 bpg last season per 36 minutes. Obviously, it’s not his play that has decreased as much as his minutes.
In his peak, Duncan was clocking in at over 40 mpg, but over the years, Gregg Popovich has learned how to control his minutes, which saves Duncan for the playoffs. In fact this season, Duncan is only averaging 29 mpg, a career low. Popovich is a master at watching the minutes of his players. During their last championship run, the big three on the Spurs, Duncan, Parker and Ginobili, averaged 34.1, 32.5 and 27.5 mpg respectively. Contrast that with Phoenix when they won 62 games, and 5 players played more than any other Spur did. Is it any wonder than the Suns always looked tired by the time the playoffs rolled around?
Now you may be wondering what this has to do with the Raptors game. Well, the Spurs are always looking ahead to the playoffs. The regular season, to them, is not nearly as important as the second season. A few games lost here and there is not nearly as important as a healthy and rested roster come the playoffs. In fact, in many way, Popovich looks at November as part of the preseason. He tinkers with his lineups, gives big minutes to lesser players and rookies, and rests his best players. That’s why it really not surprising, to people that know them, that the Spurs are sitting at a rather pedestrian 2-3 coming into this game.
A lot of people will write them off, but that would be a mistake. In many ways, they are like the Raptors. They have several new players who need to find their place on the team, and even an international player that, after doing nothing all summer, has started the season looking out of sorts and shooting poorly so far.
I was watching a Spurs game last week and laughed when I heard Doug Collins mention this fact about Ginobili, because, as Raptor fans know, Calderon had been going through something very similar. I was going to post something about it, but thought I would wait for the Raptors game against the Spurs. Then, Calderon had two good games and the criticism seems to have stopped.
Well, I normally make predictions about who is going to play well and not, and who is going to play more or less. Parker will not be playing, but I’m going to guess this is the game that Ginobili breaks out. Does that mean bad news for the Raptors? Probably. Duncan just might hold Bosh to a season low, and the Spurs are good enough team defenders that they probably won’t let Bargnani go off, which means the Raptors may be in trouble.
Then again, it’s only November, so this could be a game that Popovich decides to tinker and pretend it’s preseason. In that case, the Raptors have a good chance.
Which Spurs team is going to show up? That’s the question.
UPDATE:
Duncan is out, which means the Spurs are missing two starters. So far, the Raptors are 1 and 1 when playing a team missing two starters. The thing is, even without Duncan and Parker, the Spurs are pretty deep. It’s not going to be a cakewalk, but the Raptors certainly have a better chance at pulling it out.
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