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Raptors @ Hornets Preview
Posted on | November 6, 2009 | No Comments
Blogger’s Note: Okay, so I’m currently at way more than 2-3 posts a week (this will be the fifth this week), but don’t get too used to it. It will probably slow down as the season goes on.
So the Raptors bump into a New Orleans team that is struggling in much the same way the Raptors are. They’re currently under .500 (2-3), but two of those losses were against San Antonio and Boston. Of course, San Antonio is only at .500 and the Hornets also lost against New York. Then they beat Dallas, who are looking like one of the better teams in the league this season. In other words, it’s impossible to know what to expect tonight.
Both the Raptors and Hornets are hot and cold teams so far, and I’m not making any predictions on a winner in this one. Sorry, if you were hoping for one.
I’m looking for Bosh to get back to 30 points again. One reason is that he’s always played well against Okafor, and he’s most likely going to be the one guarding Bosh. In the last few seasons, he’s averaged close to 30 ppg against Okafor, and with both he and the Raptors scoring more, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets at least 35 tonight. If Bosh can get Okafor in foul trouble, then the both he and the Raptors could do well, since New Orleans has a VERY weak frontline bench. The second big man off the bench is Hilton Armstrong, who would be getting about as much playing time as Patrick O’Bryant, so far, if New Orleans had any depth.
Bargnani might have trouble tonight. David West is not a great defender, but is quick enough to guard Bargnani out on the perimeter, and big enough Bargnani is not going to want to post him up. Bargnani’s main task will be to, at least, keep West out of the paint on defense, which will allow Bosh to have a big scoring night.
Turkoglu can look to his counterpart (who’s coming off the bench), as a cautionary tale. Peja Stojakovic, was a 6′10 SF with lots of big game playoff experience who New Orleans signed for lots of money as a free agent after he turned 30. He’s struggled with injuries almost immediately, missing 69 games his first season with the Hornets and has been on a steep decline since then. Now he’s coming off the bench and playing limited minutes to save the physical toll on his body. And he’s making $14 million this season. Ouch!
Since Peja won’t be starting, that means that Julian Wright will be. He’s young and athletic, but the Raptors will be happy to know that he’s not an outside shooter. He’s not really going to do much of anything other than defend, actually, but Turkoglu has size and experience on him.
Starting at SG is our old friend Morris Peterson who is only starting (and playing) because New Orleans got rid of Rasual Butler (in another of their boneheaded moves), and James Posey looks to be nearing the end of his career as a useful player. Then again, Peterson is in that role, as well, so it’s no wonder the Hornets are struggling. Their wings are either too old, or not skilled enough.
Let’s just get this out of the way right away: Chris Paul will abuse Calderon. Before people start talking about how bad a defender Calderon is (okay, they may be right so far this year), Paul abuses EVERYONE. He’s averaging 30 ppg so far, PLUS 8 apg. Are they any plays he’s NOT involved in?
The Raptors will probably try several defenders on him (I don’t see Calderon defending him for long stretches), including, I’m guessing, Antoine Wright, who whose defense won’t be needed much for New Orleans’ wing players. Wright may not be quick enough to handle Paul, though, but is any Raptor player?
You know that Paul is going to get his points, and there’s nothing much you can do about it. What the Raptors need to do is make sure none of the other players go off.
There is good news for the Raptors, though. New Orleans bench is horrid. They’ve got Peja and James Posey, both well past their prime, Bobby Brown and Darius Songaila, adequate role players who would normally be deep bench players on a good team, and Hilton Armstrong. The Raptors have done well against teams, so far, with a weak bench. The Cavs and Detroit both fell off considerably once their starters left the floor. If the Raptors starters can keep pace with the New Orleans starters, the bench might be the difference.
Even more in the Raptors favour is that New Orleans is not a good rebounding team. Okafor and West are really their only threats on the board. The rest of the team, apart from Paul, are below average rebounders for their position. If the Raptors outrebound their opponent, they seem to have success.
So, on second thought, I may go with the Raptors here.
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