What’s Next For The Raptors

Posted on | October 30, 2009 | No Comments

With a game against Memphis coming up, I wanted to look back at the game against Cleveland and try and see what was in store for the Raptors tonight and beyond.

Obviously the Raptors did some things right against Cleveland, and there are things we can expect to see more of. With Bosh, Bargnani and Turkoglu, the Raptors have  front line that is going to give some teams fits. If Bargnani is hitting from outside, and Bosh doing his thing, few teams have the personnel to handle both of them. Does your center guard Bosh, who plays closer to the basket than Bargnani, but is quicker and more adept at drawing fouls than him? Or do you put him on Bargnani, where he’s going to have to guard him at the three point line, a place most centers are unaccustomed to being and takes them away from where they can block shots? It’s a nightmare to try and figure out, and the Raptors biggest advantage.

Against Cleveland, it worked perfectly. While Bosh didn’t shoot well, he doesn’t have to to score. And he doesn’t have to score to be valuable, as he showed last night when he was a force on the glass. The question is, can he do that on a consistent basis? Bosh has picked up some bad habits over the years, and one of them is not giving enough effort on the boards. In the last game of the season last year, he needed 19 to finish with 10 rpg for the season. Guess how many he got. He could obviously be better on the boards and with more play like last night, he will be. What’s most inspiring is that despite shooting so badly, he finished with 21 points. A slightly better game and he finishes in the high 20’s, which is a place he might see a lot this year if he gives the effort and stays aggressive.

There are many, especially after last night, that feel Bargnani should be the main scorer and Bosh concentrate on rebounding and defense. I wonder whether those people watch a lot of basketball. NBA Roundtable had some great things to say about Bargnani…

“So … (1) Bargnani’s shot attempts (2) number of assisted baskets (3) rebounds (4) post defense … were all fairly comparable to what we saw from him last season.

In other words, the main reason for such a marked performance was that he shot the ball extremely well (at a rate he can’t sustain).”

It’s an interesting read and I recommend it. Basically what he is saying is that Bargnani had very similar numbers to what he had the last half of last season, and it was only the great shooting, which isn’t sustainable, which caused him to get the 28 points. In other words, don’t expect this to be a regular occurrence. Look at it this way, if Bosh shot the same percentage from the field, he would have scored 35 points, because he also got to the line 12 times.

While the Raptors are a better offensive team, which everyone expected, the question is, can they sustain their defensive effort. The game again Memphis will be a good test, not because Memphis is a good team (they aren’t), but because if they can play defense against lesser teams like they played against Cleveland, Colangelo’s target of 50 wins isn’t nearly as out of reach as most predicted. I don’t think anyone expects as good a defensive effort, or at least result, simply because they cannot consistently hold teams to 35% shooting.

Now some bad news. Bargnani shot 11-15, Bosh grabbed 16 rebounds, the Raptors held Cleveland to a very impressive 35% shooting, yet they still only won by 10 points. And it was against a Cleveland team that did not look like a contender in either of their games so far. Against Boston, or Orlando, or the Lakers or the Spurs, they lose, despite playing so well.

Their lapse in the third quarter is indicative of young, inexperienced team, which they are. Elite teams come out hard in the third quarter. Yes, the Raptors were sitting on a 19 point lead, but the difference between good teams and great teams is the ability to put teams away in the third. Had the game been closer, Cleveland’s third quarter probably would have been too much to overcome. It’s something the Raptors need to work on.

MEMPHIS

This will be another interesting game for the Raptors because they have no real players to match up against Bosh and Bargnani. Gasol would normally play big minutes, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play less than 25 because there is simply no one he can guard and his offense isn’t good enough to keep him on the floor. And if Thabeet plays at all, watch how quickly he racks up the fouls.

Then there’s Randolph, who should play big minutes, simply because he’s their best inside scorer, but whoever he guards will have a big night. I’m guessing it will be Bosh, who may go for 30 tonight. How Bosh guards him will be a good indicator as to how far his defense has come this year.

The Raptors defense should, in theory, do well against a Memphis team that passes the ball like they are afraid they won’t get it back, which they won’t. I think it’s funny that their two biggest weaknesses were ball movement and defense, and they went out and got Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson. I’m not sure how they thought this would help.

The Raptors shouldn’t have trouble scoring, and so whoever plays the best defense will win the game. Since Memphis doesn’t like doing things like that, I’m going to go with the Raptors, here.

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Category: NBA

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