Prediction #6

Posted on | October 20, 2009 | No Comments

After reading all the articles, blogs and comments about pre-season, I’m anxious to publish my season preview for the Raptors, but I said I would finish the predictions, first. This will be my last prediction for the Raptors, and then I’ll discuss the rest of the league.

THE RAPTORS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE SECOND ROUND OF THE PLAYOFFS

LeBron Finds Orlando's Defense ToughMy first five predictions have been pretty optimistic, but those of you who think that I’m an eternal optimist, in regards to the Raptors, should know that is not true. Not in the least. In fact, my criticism in the past has lead to me being called a `hater’ by some. I was not a fan of Rob Babcock. I have not been a fan of any draft pick between Chris Bosh and DeMar DeRozan. I hated giving Kapono the full MLE. I wanted Vince traded a full two years before he was because I knew the team was going nowhere anytime soon and the Raptors needed to trade him while he was still valuable. Even when they were successful with Vince, I wasn’t all that optomistic about their longterm chances because of the age of the roster as well as other reasons.

And from my prediction, it would appear that I am not optimistic about the current Raptor’s future, either. That’s not entirely true, however.

It’s pretty safe to say that, barring injury, Orlando, Cleveland and Boston are locks for the three top positions in the East. If any of them win fewer than 55 games it would be a shock. Atlanta has slowly built themselves up into a good team. They have improved their record every year and even made it to the second round of the playoffs last spring. They now have experience and the chemistry that comes from the core being together for some time. After winning 47 games last season, and adding Joe Smith and Jamal Crawford, while bringing back every other important player on the roster, winning more than 50 games is very likely.

The Atlanta HawksSo, four teams will probably win at least 50 games. And no one is predicting the Raptors to do so. That means, at best, a 5th seed. The only possible competition for the 5th seed would be Washington (who possibly play worse defense than the Raptors, and won 19 games last season), Chicago (whose top returning scorer will be John Salmons), Philadelphia (who don’t have a true PG on the roster), and Miami (whose success depends on Jermaine O’Neal’s physical health and Michael Beasley’s mental health). Those teams won 41, 41 and 43 games, so it’s my guess that 45 wins may very well give you the 5th seed.

Raptor's Defense

I think everyone can agree that the only chance the Raptors have of getting to the second round is by playing Atlanta in the first round. There’s little chance of beating the veteran and talent laden squads, Cleveland, Orlando and Boston. The problem is, I think they’ll have a tough time beating Atlanta four times out of seven. Atlanta has been together longer, have more experience, especially in the postseason (only two Raptors have any significant post season experience, Turkoglu and Nesterovic (who may not even play 10 mpg this season). Joe Smith and Mike Bibby have both been to the Conference Finals, at least once, and the entire starting five went to the second round last spring.

Plus, the Raptors have history working against them, too. Very rarely does a team with so many new players make any noise in their first playoffs together. Winning, especially in the post season, requires continuity, and the Raptors simply don’t have that.

Now, before you think I’m being too pessimistic about the Raptors, bear in mind that this does not mean their future is bleak. Of course, you’ll have to read my Raptors preview edition to find out why…

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Category: Hawks, NBA, Raptors

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