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5 Predictions for the Rest of the League
Posted on | October 28, 2009 | No Comments
[Blogger's Note: I started writing this post yesterday before the first games, but was interrupted]
Since the season starts today, and I haven’t even come close to making good on my announcement to post a prediction a day, I thought I would get them all done in one fell swoop.
PREDICTION #1
CLEVELAND WILL REGRET TRADING FOR SHAQ
Quick, name the last MVP winner to be an All Star on five different NBA teams. Can’t? That’s because there isn’t one. A few have achieved great success with multiple teams (Garnett, Barkley, Moses Malone etc.) and a couple have even won Championships on at least one team (Kareem, Shaq), but, generally, teams tend to hold onto their MVP players. It’s obvious why, MVP calibre players are a very rare thing. Since the NBA has been giving out the award (since 1956), only 25 players have won the award.
Very few MVP winners have been traded while still playing All-Star calibre basketball. Usually, it’s because the team is rebuilding and want to send the player to a winning team. This is the NBA’s version of a golden parachute. Wilt Chamberlain won a Championship this way, and so did Garnett. Teams appreciate the hard work and wish to reward the player by not having them endure losing basketball.
Then there is the other reason. The `problem’ or demand. Kareem famously demanded to be traded out of Milwaukee. Iverson was shown the way out of Philadelphia because he couldn’t help the team win, and they didn’t feel like putting up with him if they weren’t winning. And then there’s Shaq.
I already alluded to this here and here, but I really don’t understand Danny Ferry trading for Shaq. This season, Shaq will play for his fifth team and probably end up being an All-Star once again.The problem is, every single place he’s played he’s left plenty of baggage behind. In Orlando, he feuded with the coach and other star player (Penny Hardaway), before leaving them via free agency.
In his next port of call, Los Angeles, he constantly feuded with Kobe, insulted the GM and ownership and then after he was traded away, made disparaging remarks about coach Phil Jackson.
In Miami, he finally seemed to get along with the other star player, but with the star player hurt, Shaq couldn’t help the Heat win and was traded to Phoenix. Of course, while playing for Phoenix, he made disparaging remarks about his former coach, Stan Van Gundy.
In Phoenix, he took the team from a contender to lottery dweller, and then was traded away after, reportedly, the veterans on the team grew sick of his act and unprofessional behaviour.
There is no doubt that Shaq is an incredibly talented player who is still one of the top five players at his position in the league. What he is not, however, is a low maintenance veteran who can seamlessly fit into any contender’s roster. Even though, Danny Ferry mentored with the Spurs, he didn’t seem to learn a lot from R.C. Buford and Greg Popovich.
The Spurs are famous for adding veterans who fit in the system well and require little handholding. I haven’t heard one bad word about their pickup of Richard Jefferson, who is exactly what the Spurs need, an athletic veteran who has plenty of playoff experience, and knows how to play with great players, without them changing how they play. McDyess is also a low maintenance veteran who will fit in seamlessly.
Shaq is a dominant player with a dominant personality. He demands attention on the court, but off it, as well. He craves attention. For someone who has never really had much of a passion for basketball, I think he’s stayed in the game so long because it’s the best way to stay in the spotlight.
The next time Shaq opens his mouth and says something intelligent, it may be the first time, but, believe it or not, off the court is the place Shaq is going to disrupt the Cavs the least. The place where he is going to be most disruptive is on the court.
Now, I’m not saying that Shaq isn’t still a very good player. He’s still very tough to guard, requires automatic double teams and can clog the lane better than most centers. On the right team, he could most definitely help. Chicago, with it’s lack of inside scoring, good defensive players and no dominant scorer, could use someone like Shaq, but he would be a temporary solution to a team looking long term.
In Cleveland, though, Shaq is going to a team with one of the best scorers in the game, who uses the lane like his own personal airport. LeBron’s biggest weakness is his outside shooting, and scores inside more than many power forwards. Cleveland won so many games by, essentially, surrounding LeBron with shooters he could kick the ball out to when double and triple teamed. Even their center, Ilgauskas, shoots mostly jumpshots. Of course, Ilgauskas has two big weaknesses that sometimes made him a liability on the court. He’s incredibly slow and he can’t guard the pick and roll (well, they’re related, but you get my point). Plus, he makes way more than he’s worth. So what do they do? They go out and trade for a player who is slow and can’t guard the pick and roll. The Cavs lost against Orlando not just due to the play of Dwight Howard (that was obviously part of it), but because Cleveland couldn’t guard Orlando’s pick and roll where everyone but Dwight could hit the jumper, and because of Cleveland couldn’t guard the big, quick wings of the Magic.
I think the trade for Shaq was a knee jerk reaction to being beaten Dwight Howard and the Magic, but it doesn’t look like a well thought out move at all. Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon were pretty good additions (especially Parker), but they overpaid for them (especially for Moon) and improved less than any of the other contenders in the league. If they win 60 games this year (after winning 66 last season), I’ll be surprised. Now obviously just having LeBron is going to keep them in contention, but getting back to the Finals (remember they were there three years ago) is a longshot. And despite Shaq’s liabilities, if he misses games, as he so often does, it’s really going to hurt the Cavs because they have such little depth, now.
PREDICTION #2
DALLAS WILL BE A SURPRISE TEAM
Yes, they won 50 games last year, but the addition of Shawn Marion wasn’t touted as much of an improvement to the Mavericks. Kidd is past getting old and is now just old, Dirk is starting to decline, Josh Howard is still hurt after being hurt much of last season and not getting being able to sign Gortat means they have to depend on Erick Dampier to man the middle. Again. Still, I think with Marion is one of the best additions to any team, despite his age and decline. If he can give then a couple of good seasons, that’s all they need. Will they get back to the Finals? Doubtful, with the Lakers and Spurs being as good as they are, but a return to the second round is likely.
Dallas can now put on the floor Dirk, Marion, Howard, Jason Terry and Jason Kidd. That’s as potent a lineup as anyone in the league. Plus, Marion brings rebounding and defense, which wasn’t bad last season. When they run, is anyone going to be able to stop them?
PREDICTION #3
ORLANDO WILL MISS TURKOGLU
Yes, I know they didn’t lose in the preseason, but if you read my post about the preseason, you’ll understand why I don’t pay attention to that.
Now, I think Orlando will still be a contender, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them back in the Finals again this year, but despite Carter being a much more explosive scorer and more athletic, I don’t think he’s an upgrade. First of all, he’s turning 33 this season, and for a guy you depends on athleticism, and who is known for being rather lackadaisical when it comes to training, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start declining badly this season. And while Turkoglu gave other teams matchup problems with his size, which is one reason they were able to beat the Cavs, Carter does not. And Carter might be worse defensively than Turkoglu.
The question now, is, who is going to initiate the offense during crunchtime? Nelson runs an offense nicely, but, like the Raptors Calderon, he doesn’t break down the defense. The best guy on the roster to do that, now, is Carter, and he didn’t even do it that much in New Jersey with Kidd and then Devin Harris as the point guards.
Plus, with Carter’s age and history of injuries, is he going to be able to last the season? And if he doesn’t can the Magic make up for his absence?
PREDICTION #4
DETROIT WILL HAVE TO REBUILD THEIR TEAM
I was never in the “Joe Dumars is a genius GM”-camp. His two best moves were also incredibly lucky. He lost Grant Hill to the Magic, but I don’t think anyone knew how good Ben Wallace was going to be, and I was a fan of his in Orlando, and felt they made a mistake letting him go in return. Without Big Ben, and the addition of Rasheed Wallace, for basically nothing, Detroit doesn’t win their Championship.
He’s had just as many hits as misses in the draft (the Darko Milicic pick will forever haunt him), and has a track record of losing good coaches too quickly- fired Carlisle after he took them back to the playoffs, lost Larry Brown after just two seasons and fired Flip Saunders after guiding them to the Conference Finals three straight years. His Michael Curry selection was a disaster and we’ll see how the current coach goes.
What settles it for me, however, is the signing of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva this summer. With lots of cap room to spend, and a chance to try and get back to the playoffs, he overpays two of the most overrated players on the market. Gordon is a PG-sized SG who is one of the best shooters in the league, but doesn’t do anything else. At all. He doesn’t play defense, and is very undersized at his position, anyway, and doesn’t pass in the fourth quarter. Watch him. He’ll force everything while his teammates are wide open. Yes, he’ll hit some of those shots, but he’ll lose just as many games for his team as he’ll win.
And Villanueva is a jumpshooting big man who avoids the lane like Angelina Jolie avoids food. And despite deluded Raptor fans yearning for his return, he would become the Raptors worst defender if he did. He’s horrible.
On a contender, I don’t see either starting, or getting more than 20 mpg, because of their weaknesses, but Dumars is paying them close to $17 million this season.
Detroit is going to struggle. They won 39 games last year, and that was with McDyess and Wallace (as well as Iverson for part of the season). Stuckey isn’t the PG some thought he would be. Hamilton is on the short list to get traded by the deadline, and their lone center on the roster is Kwame Brown.
By the All-Star break, I think everyone, including Dumars, is going to realize that this teams needs to be blown up.
PREDICTIONS #5
THE SPURS WILL WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP
Now, it wasn’t so long ago that I would pick the Spurs every single year, and be right half the time. The last two years I didn’t pick them, but with the moves they made this offseason, they’re my favourite once again. Of course this is contingent on everyone being healthy, which isn’t a guarantee.
When DuJuan Blair started dropping, in the draft, I wasn’t surprised. There were questions about his knees and teams don’t want players with knee problems, especially if they have to give them a guaranteed contract. But even at the end of the first round, you’re only talking about two guaranteed years. That’s not a lot when you’re talking about someone who should have been a lottery pick. You’d think the gamble would be worth it. I get the feeling that lots of teams are going to regret passing on Blair. And can you choose two better veterans to learn from than Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess?
The trade for Jefferson gets my vote for best offseason trade. He’s exactly what the Spurs lacked last season, and exactly what they need. He can score from outside and inside, defend, rebound, handle the ball and pass. He’s been to the Finals twice (losing against the Spurs, once), plays better when surrounded by good players and has been around the league long enough that he’s a wily, yet is still under 30. Sure, that contract is pretty bad, but if ownership will pay, then it doesn’t matter. With Jefferson on board, Ginobili can take it easier in the regular season and make it to the playoffs healthy.
Antonio McDyess is also a prefect pickup for the Spurs because he’s a smart veteran who can start at center, play defense, and score when needed. He can also start, but won’t be depended on to play a lot of minutes with Blair playing behind him. He can play enough minutes, however, to give Duncan plenty of rest. In fact, Duncan might end up playing the fewest mpg of his career. And this on a team run by a coach who knows how to limit his star player’s minutes and still win.
It may be a tough road, especially against the Lakers, but I think the Spurs are just too talented and experienced to be beaten this year. It might also be the Spurs last hurrah as Duncan and Ginobili enter their twilight playing years.
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